NOAA Hurricane Prediction: We're Totally Screwed

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

NOAA Predicts Near or Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

Translation: batten down the hatches and secure your poop deck.


www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/noaa-predicts-near-or-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-n112021

[Jaguar]

I hope there's no Andrew's, Sandy's or Katrina's in this mix.

[busymom]

I wouldn't worry. Yet. They can't even accurately do our forecast 24 hours ahead, much less 6 months...

[justme]

After a couple of years of living in FL Paul won't even pay attention to the predictions. Hurricanes are only worth paying attention to once they're talking about it 24/7 on the news here and there's red all over the map. 

[swamp]

Last night (this morning?) on the news I heard that last year 11 hurricanes were predicted. There were 2.

[Tennesseer]

"NOAA Predicts Near or Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

Translation: batten down the hatches and secure your poop deck."

What am I missing here?

[justme]

Their predictions are usually crap. I think last year was at or just above normal at 11 and there were only 2. Sometimes the actuality is the opposite of what they predict. 

Though this year I think I heard the El Nino has a good chance of keeping it boring over here.

[swamp]

May 23, 2014 11:01:36 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

"NOAA Predicts Near or Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

Translation: batten down the hatches and secure your poop deck."

What am I missing here?

Paul just wanted to say "poop."

[resolution]

Looks like Pacific is going to be above normal this year, the people on the Hawaii forums are planning their supply lists. 


www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/25581510/forecast-4-to-7-cyclones-in-central-pacific

[saveinla]

May 23, 2014 11:01:36 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

"NOAA Predicts Near or Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

Translation: batten down the hatches and secure your poop deck."

What am I missing here?

I think it affects his business and income if the hurricane season is below normal levels - he should probably move to the West Coast since El Nino is supposed to happen this year

[Tennesseer]

May 23, 2014 11:50:19 GMT -5 saveinla said:

May 23, 2014 11:01:36 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

"NOAA Predicts Near or Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

Translation: batten down the hatches and secure your poop deck."

What am I missing here?

I think it affects his business and income if the hurricane season is below normal levels - he should probably move to the West Coast since El Nino is supposed to happen this year

Paul ìs world-wide.  

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

May 23, 2014 10:50:02 GMT -5 busymom said:

I wouldn't worry. Yet. They can't even accurately do our forecast 24 hours ahead, much less 6 months...

That's actually what I'm worried about. 

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

May 23, 2014 11:01:36 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

"NOAA Predicts Near or Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

Translation: batten down the hatches and secure your poop deck."

What am I missing here?

Only the whole point I was making. It's OK, I'm used to it.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

May 23, 2014 11:04:54 GMT -5 justme said:

Their predictions apre usually crap. I think last year was at or just above normal at 11 and there were only 2. Sometimes the actuality is the opposite of what they predict. 
Though this year I think I heard the El Nino has a good chance of keeping it boring over here.

I know I've been gone awhile, but I sincerely don't remember it being this bad. Did EVERYONE miss the point?

[wyouser]

I think the uncertainty comes from no one being able to predict when or which way that butterfly in Africa flaps its wings.  For that you have to hire the modern version of "Jimmy The Greek " in Vegas ......or ...get the Voodoo Lady in Jamaca to toss the bones

[Deleted]

May 23, 2014 12:28:28 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

May 23, 2014 11:04:54 GMT -5 justme said:

Their predictions apre usually crap. I think last year was at or just above normal at 11 and there were only 2. Sometimes the actuality is the opposite of what they predict. 
Though this year I think I heard the El Nino has a good chance of keeping it boring over here.

I know I've been gone awhile, but I sincerely don't remember it being this bad. Did EVERYONE miss the point?

I didn't. Welcome back!

[Deleted]

Not clear if you are worried because below normal means not much income, or you are employing sarcasm because their predictions are exact opposite of what usually happens.

Want to enlighten us?

[EVT1]

I think PBP would lobby for more hurricanes if was possible   Or tornados.  Heck global warming is great for his business.  The more mayhem, the better.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

May 23, 2014 22:39:24 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

I think PBP would lobby for more hurricanes if was possible   Or tornados.  Heck global warming is great for his business.  The more mayhem, the better.

Damn right. 

And now that the official government position is normal or below normal- we can count on a re-do of 2004 - 2005.  We're due! 

[Deleted]

Paul's point is global warming is a hoax. 

By the way, anyone see the massive hail storm in the mid Atlantic this week? 

[NoNamePerson]

When a hurricane heads for the Gulf of Mexico, I give it a thought.

When a hurrican gets in the Gulf Of Mexico, I pay attention.

When the city I live in gets in the "cone", I leave town.   

[jkapp]

May 23, 2014 10:50:02 GMT -5 busymom said:

I wouldn't worry. Yet. They can't even accurately do our forecast 24 hours ahead, much less 6 months...

I saw on the news the hurricane statistics, and a little bit of info afterwards said that these predictions are about 50% accurate.  LOL! So they are basically guessing

[jkapp]

May 23, 2014 11:40:57 GMT -5 resolution said:

Looks like Pacific is going to be above normal this year, the people on the Hawaii forums are planning their supply lists. 


www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/25581510/forecast-4-to-7-cyclones-in-central-pacific

I always laugh whenever they say anything related to "normal."  Because, what they deem to be "normal" is the average for the past 100 years or so...but who the hell knows if the past 100 years were even normal??  They should really say above or below historical averages

[busymom]

I wouldn't wish a tornado, or a hurricane on anybody. (Of course, I know someone who lost a house to a tornado.) And even here on the boards, SF had extensive damage to his "love nest".

Anybody heard a prediction on how many tornadoes to expect this season? Not that those things are predictable, either...

[Deleted]

May 24, 2014 9:59:42 GMT -5 jkapp said:

May 23, 2014 11:40:57 GMT -5 resolution said:

Looks like Pacific is going to be above normal this year, the people on the Hawaii forums are planning their supply lists. 


www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/25581510/forecast-4-to-7-cyclones-in-central-pacific

I always laugh whenever they say anything related to "normal."  Because, what they deem to be "normal" is the average for the past 100 years or so...but who the hell knows if the past 100 years were even normal??  They should really say above or below historical averages

I've heard it referred to as "since record keeping began" with a date for the area's records, but not very often. A lot of the people who do the weather reports on the small local stations aren't meteorologists so attention to that kind of detail isn't present. If your into meteorology, it's an old joke about "normal" weather. Doesn't exist.