Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 5, 2014 14:05:08 GMT -5
I do like this thread, Value Buy. A good resource. Thanks. I like to go back and check data, and my comments to see how wrong I can be sometimes. Keeps things in perspective.
That is also why I like the other threads here at the Investing basics board. You guys rock with putting everything out there in plain sight for everyone to see. There are some really intelligent people here with great insight, and no agenda to push, other than sharing views!
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 1, 2014 13:34:43 GMT -5
January 31st closing prices December 31st closing prices Dow 15,698.85 Nasdaq 4,103.88 S&P 500 1,782.59 Russell 2000 1,130.88 Transportation index 7,289.18 Utility index 506.26 Gold $1,239.80 oz Platinum $1,375.70 Silver $19.12 oz Copper $3.197 Brent crude $106.40 per barrel WTI Oil$ 97.49 per barrel Gasoline $2.6314 gallon, NY Harbor Natural gas $4.943 Heating oil $3.00 gallon Diesel $2.9971 gallon Wheat $5.5575 bushel Orange Juice $1.4255 Corn $4.34 bushel Soybeans $1,282.75 Lumber $353.80 10 yr treasury $99.14 Euro $1.3485 Canadian dollar $89.845 Yen $1.0203 Live cattle $140.425 Lean hogs $94.80 Coal $57.50
Cattle continues to rise, metal complex is stable, but copper soft. Grain crops not doing too much. Stocks are taking a breather and selling off, but I do not see this as anything other than a correction. Exxon and Chevron are taking a hit on poor earnings even though oil prices remain high as well as natural gas hitting several year highs. Gasoline prices are weak, so their refineries are not minting money for them right now.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 14, 2014 19:18:06 GMT -5
February 14th closing prices Dow 16,154.39 Nasdaq 4,244.03 S&P 500 1,838.63 Russell 2000 1,149.59 Transportation index 7,306.14 Utility index 519.51 Gold $1,318.40 oz Platinum $1,428.50 Silver $21.45 oz Copper $3.2615 Brent crude $108.98 per barrel WTI Oil$ 100.27 per barrel Gasoline $2.8009 gallon, NY Harbor Natural gas $5.158 Heating oil $3.08 gallon Diesel $3.08261 gallon Wheat $598.50 bushel Orange Juice $1.4435 Corn $4.4525bushel Soybeans $1,337.50 Lumber $361.50 10 yr treasury $100.625 Euro $1.3699 Canadian dollar $90.96 Yen $1.0182 Live cattle $141.075 Lean hogs $96.225 Coal $57.58
The metal complex looks like it has bottomed out. Gold silver and platinum well off their lows. Oil complex is trading sideways, but the gap between wti and Brent has dropped from close to $12 to $6 a barrel. Natural gas has risen to the highest level in four years, threatening homeowners and business with large heating bills for the winter months, sucking a lot of spendable income out of the economy. Stocks have recovered almost everything they lost from the January sell off, except for the Dow. The last jobs report was very poor, making traders feel tapering will continue. Grain commodities are drifting slightly upward, as well as livestock. Utility index still climbs despites "potential" increasing interest rates Currencies are all trading in a tight range, not doing too much, although the Canadian dollar is still down.
If we look at the data from January until now, it looks like the Fed is gong to get it's wish. Inflation looks like it could be coming to our immediate future this spring. I hope they are happy. Anyone actually look at the meat prices in your local store lately? Two lbs of ground chuck in the $5 per lb and even higher price. I cannot understand why inflation is a good thing. It hurts the middle and lower classes all the time.
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Post by ModE98 on Feb 15, 2014 15:06:47 GMT -5
Good comments, VB. Food prices just keep going up, up, up. Agree, inflation not good for the consumer.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 16, 2014 9:15:52 GMT -5
Good comments, VB. Food prices just keep going up, up, up. Agree, inflation not good for the consumer. If one looks at the meat counter, regardless which corporation you shop at, even T-bone steak costs what a meal at a restaurant cost you about a year ago. Get the thick cut, and it's $14 to $16 each Boneless chicken breast at $1.99 lb is a good price this year, last year, $1.19 to $1.49 lb And yet the price of feed for them is way down from a year ago.
Gallon of milk? Retails for a minimum of $3 a gallon with fewer advertised sales. Case of Pepsi or Coke? This year, on sale for maybe $6 when a year ago $.499 or $5.99 the prevailing sale price. Just saw a display sale of beer yesterday. PBR, Miller High Life, or Old Style 30 pks on sale for $18.98 (I am not a beer drinker, but a $19 sale price stopped even me, cold) Now I know, beer sells at prices dictated by state sin taxes, but I swear just two years ago, you could get it for around $12.99 on sale. These are not premium beers. Heating bills for the majority of Americans have skyrocketed due to the extreme cold sucking more money out of the "normal economy" Not to get political, but now with low and middle class Americans paying part of their healthcare insurance, disposable income is fast disappearing from the majority of the American consumers. IMO, so many variables are hitting the consumer all at once, which will hurt our economy. I think the Fed keeps the tapering at current levels for the foreseeable future, due to poor economic data to come, and the unintended consequences for this is an even worsening economy. It almost becomes a swirling downward spiral, with short stops before another step backward.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 16, 2014 9:19:54 GMT -5
I am confused by the narrowing variance of WTI and Brent crude. I read where we opened a pipeline to the gulf, freeing up crude to the refineries, which is responsible for the increase of WTI. I thought if we opened up the bottleneck at the terminal, (In Oklahoma, I believe) price of WTI should have actually dropped. I do not get it.
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Post by tyfighter3 on Feb 18, 2014 17:54:44 GMT -5
They will be opening up exports soon and then there will be no difference. Remember Brent prices reflect the price of gas at the pump.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 2, 2014 9:37:43 GMT -5
February 28th Closing quotes Dow 16,321.71 Nasdaq 4,308.12 S&P 500 1,859.45 Russell 2000 1,183.03 Transportation index 7,348.37 Utility index 518.77 Gold $1,321.60 oz Platinum $1,446.80 Silver $21.241 oz Copper $3.1875 Brent crude $109.15 per barrel WTI Oil$ 102.59 per barrel Gasoline $2.9774 gallon, NY Harbor Natural gas $4.609 Heating oil $3.02 gallon Diesel $3.0163 gallon Wheat $602.25 bushel Orange Juice $1.4675 Corn $4.635bushel Soybeans $1,414 Lumber $352.20 10 yr treasury $100.88 Euro $1.3801 Canadian dollar $90.34 Yen $1.0175 Live cattle $144.975 Lean hogs $106.85 Coal $62.75
Stock markets are back on track after a bad January. Oil complex remains strong, with gasoline and natural gas prices reaching a point, they might hurt the consumer class with their spendable disposable income decreasing, hurting retailers even more than the winter weather has. Live cattle and hog futures on fire, which will escalate retail meat prices even higher in the coming month Coal futures are up $5, probably due to increased demand from the cold weather and utilities switching back to cheap coal from now relatively expensive natural gas. The Euro is gaining strength again. I do not know if this is because of the crisis in the Ukraine, or Europe is just having a stronger recovery than USA.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 14, 2014 20:56:39 GMT -5
March 14th closing prices Dow 16,065.60 Nasdaq 4,245.40 S&P 500 1,841.15 Russell 2000 1,181.42 Transportation index 7,476.22 Utility index 522.27 Gold $1,381.30 oz Platinum $1,468.40 Silver $21.415 oz Copper $2.934 Brent crude $108.54 per barrel WTI Oil $99.01 per barrel Gasoline $2.9573 gallon, NY Harbor Natural gas $4.421 Heating oil $2.94 gallon Diesel $2.9379 gallon Wheat $6.8725 bushel Orange Juice $1.4950 Corn $4.86 bushel Soybeans $1,388.50 Lumber $340.05 10 yr treasury $100.6563 Euro $1.3905 Canadian dollar $90.12 Yen $98.70 Live cattle $1.45175 Lean hogs $1.1930 Coal $60.35
WTI spread with Brent had widened to almost $10 a barrel again. Gasoline futures have ebbed slightly down, while retail gasoline (at the pump) has risen about $.40 cents retail in the last 15 days. Soft commodities- grains are inching higher and lean hogs have jumped Everyone seems to be waiting on Russia and the Crimea, and China data. Russia affects Europe more than us here at home, but the markets are always willing to play on any drama out there. China- they seem to be worried China is softening, but just how much do we really send to china other than our "secrets" that are stolen by them........China has been trying to switch to an "in country consumer" nation rather than depending on exports to foreign markets right now. If they fail, commodity markets might be soft, but imo, that means little to no inflation in our future, keeping retail prices in line here at home, helping our consumer base who have been hurt for two months due to atrocious weather cutting job hours and paychecks, and dealing with really high utility bills affecting what they can currently spend in our economy.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 14, 2014 20:59:36 GMT -5
I have lost just under $11,000 in my stock portfolio the last two days due to market swings downward. Just a few days ago, I hit a new high on the portfolio...... Easy come, easy go........
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Post by The Virginian on Mar 15, 2014 7:26:52 GMT -5
Just hang in there Value Buy - These swings just mean the big investors don't have a clue in which direction to go.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 15, 2014 11:36:38 GMT -5
This coming week should clear up which direction we are headed for the spring quarter.
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Post by Blonde Granny on Mar 15, 2014 12:31:45 GMT -5
This coming week should clear up which direction we are headed for the spring quarter. That's really quite easy to figure out VB.....just decide which way you think things are going to go, and it's almost guaranteed the markets will go the other.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 16, 2014 8:58:18 GMT -5
This coming week should clear up which direction we are headed for the spring quarter. That's really quite easy to figure out VB.....just decide which way you think things are going to go, and it's almost guaranteed the markets will go the other. It usually does.
Welcome over to this board. Please spend some time over here adding your thoughts on the threads here.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 31, 2014 19:51:45 GMT -5
March 31st closing prices and first quarter ending prices
Dow 16,457.66 Nasdaq 4,198.99 S&P 500 1,872.35 Russell 2000 1,173.19 Transportation index 7,574.96 Utility index 532.13 Gold $1,284.80 oz Platinum $1,413.80 Silver $19.79 oz Copper $3.0275 Brent crude $107.74 per barrel WTI Oil $101.50 per barrel Gasoline $2.911 gallon, NY Harbor Natural gas $4.381 Heating oil $2.93 gallon Diesel $2.9337 gallon
Coal $59.74 Wheat $6.9725 bushel Corn $5.02 bushel Soybeans $1,464
Orange Juice $1.55 Lumber $335.50 Live cattle $1.3752 Lean hogs $1.2595 10 yr treasury $100.16 Euro $1.37755 Canadian dollar $90.47 Yen $96.79 This turned into a trading quarter for the specialists.
Stock markets seem to be leaving the momentum stocks in the month of March, but I do not know if this is permanent or just profit taking. Utility index is up over the first of the year by 40 points despite potentially rising interest rates. Many expected this index to fall. Most markets are trading just below where we started, except soft commodities which are up over the first of the year. Corn up $80 a bushel, wheat up $.92 bushel soybeans up $1.70, for the quarter, but hard for me to judge changes due to monthly ending dates of commodities, rolling over into new contracts. Oil-Brent is down a little over a $3 dollars a barrel, WTI up just under $3 a barrel closing the gap between the two despite the problems with Russia. Gold up $45 an oz, (for the quarter) silver only up $.69 an oz, copper down $.37 for the quarter, but copper is climbing from a big decline based on China's economy. The Euro is almost dead even with three months ago. With Obamacare becoming official, the economy showing some strength in employment (I think so anyway) maybe we will see a solid 2nd quarter for stocks. We do have a non Presidential fall election coming this year, and sometimes stocks slip during this upcoming quarter, based on potential political outcomes. I never understand that philosopy, but it does occur sometimes. Myself, I look for a solid 2nd quarter for stocks. Over all I feel good about this spring. P.S. remember we had an NFC winner in the Superbowl and that usually bodes well for stock markets. Not that stock market watchers are superstitious or anything like that........ Good trading to all!
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 17, 2014 20:57:12 GMT -5
April 15th prices
Dow 16,262.56 Nasdaq 4,034.16 S&P 500 1,842.98 Russell 2000 1,120.46 Transportation index 7,466.68 Utility index 544.65
Gold $1,303.20 oz Platinum $1,442.80 Silver $19.61 oz Copper $2.9945 Brent crude $108.72 per barrel WTI Oil $103.53 per barrel Gasoline $3.0404 gallon, NY Harbor Natural gas $4.569 Heating oil $2.99 gallon Diesel $2.9868 gallon Coal $60.65
Wheat $701.75 Corn $5.0375 bushel Soybeans $1,501.25 Orange Juice $1.6445 Lumber $325.00 Live cattle $1.3545 Lean hogs $1.21425
10 year treasury $101.0938 Euro $1.38 Canadian dollar $90.96 Yen $98.22
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Post by Value Buy on May 15, 2014 17:25:28 GMT -5
April 30th closing prices
Dow 16,580.84 Nasdaq 4,070.62 S&P 500 1,883.95 Russell 2000 1,126.86 Transportation index 7,672.19 Utility index 553.58
Gold $1,291.10 oz Platinum $1,426.20 Silver $19.18 oz Copper $3.016 Brent crude $108.14 per barrel WTI Oil $99.69 per barrel Gasoline $2.96 gallon, NY Harbor Natural gas $4.795 Heating oil $2.924 gallon Diesel $2.928 gallon Coal $60.225
Wheat $721.25 Corn $5.1925 bushel Soybeans $1,511.75 Orange Juice $160.70 Lumber $330.50 Live cattle $1.37225 Lean hogs $1.2315
10 year treasury $98.80 Euro $1.3867 Canadian dollar $91.18 Yen $97.80
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on May 15, 2014 17:39:06 GMT -5
May 15th closing prices
Dow 16,446.81 Nasdaq 4,069.29 S&P 500 1,870.85 Russell 2000 1,095.99 Transportation index 7,781.32 Utility index 536.28
Gold $1,293.80 oz. Platinum $1,469.90 Silver $19.484 oz. Copper $3.1445 Brent crude $109.07 per barrel WTI Oil $101.50 per barrel Gasoline $2.9642 gallon, NY Harbor Natural gas $4.469 Heating oil $2.95 gallon Diesel $2.9506 gallon Coal $64.15
Wheat $678.25 Corn $484.25 bushel Soybeans $1,470.25 Orange Juice $156.65 Lumber $329.60 Live cattle $1.37525 Lean hogs $1.19425
10 year treasury $100.09
Euro $1.3709 Canadian dollar $91.82 Yen $98.48
As wonky as the stock markets have been the last 30 to 45 days, commodities seem to be a bastion of calm and very uneventful. Stocks, just the opposite --very volitol, and no one knows which way they are headed. Grain complex seems to be weak right now. Gold and oil complex not doing anything, and yet all the talk on business channels is "look out for inflation" which should signal an uptick in commodities....... Cattle and hogs remain strong on lack of product for at least thru the summer and early fall. Utility index slipping despite interest rates falling from the late winter early rate increases, 10 year hovering around 2.5% now.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2014 17:45:30 GMT -5
Just got through shopping at Costco. Paid 45 dollars for two tri tips!! The payment on our first house was only 50 dollars a month!!
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Post by tyfighter3 on May 16, 2014 0:58:26 GMT -5
Lonewolf, isn't nice to be able to still remember that stuff. lol
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 2, 2014 21:20:55 GMT -5
May 31st closing prices Dow 16,717.17 Nasdaq 4,242.62 S&P 500 1,923.57 Russell 2000 1,134.50 Transportation index 7,781.32 Utility index 544.96
Gold $1,246.00 oz. Platinum $1,452.70 Silver $18.682 oz. Copper $3.1235 Brent crude $109.49 per barrel WTI Oil $102.71 per barrel Gasoline $2.9769 gallon, NY Harbor Natural gas $4.542 Heating oil $2.8882 gallon Diesel $2.89 gallon Coal $60.88
Wheat $627.50 Corn $4.6575 bushel Soybeans $1,493.25 Orange Juice $159.40 Lumber $312.30 Live cattle $1.3860 Lean hogs $1.20475
10 year treasury $100.21
Euro $1.363 Canadian dollar $91.57 Yen $98.22
Stock market and indexes continue to hit new highs, except for the Nasdaq. Metal complex remains lower, even as we worry about potential inflation. Oil complex has been trading in a tight range with lots of wti available. Less than a $7 spread between Brent and wti. Gasoline, despite articles saying it has reached it spring high, has increased at retail the last month. Locally we hit $3.99 a gallon last week. $4 gas is a tipping point for the consumer. Anything higher than $4, and retail sales will suffer. Natural gas trading between $4.50 and $4.80 last couple of months. Have to watch this closely to see where it is heading. Coal has been slipping, but I have no clue whether this is due to soft demand, or Federal regulations closing electric utilities, or utilities changing over to natural gas turbines. Soft grain commodities are still slipping, based on reportedly good planting conditions for most of the country Cattle and hogs will remain high due to no cattle to slaughter and the death of tens of thousands of hogs with a deadly virus. Euro has slipped a few cents lately, but Canadian dollar and yen staying at recent levels. Ten year treasury has continued down from recent highs trading in the 2.5% return range
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 4, 2014 19:07:59 GMT -5
Well, are we going to have the June swoon, or not? I does not look like we had the sell in May and go away fiasco. Myself, whether we hit the summer doldrums or not, I am looking for a strong late fall rally taking the DOW to 18,000.
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 6, 2014 8:03:19 GMT -5
I decided to change the thread title from "commodities" to market indexes to more accurately reflect the posted data. Sometimes I feel like I am talking to myself on this thread.
Should I keep this thread alive, or let it die a graceful death? Should I just post the end of month data, or possibly end of quarter data only? I do track the data for myself at home and will continue doing that, but if no one is really interested, I will just stop posting to the thread. Thanks
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2014 12:48:22 GMT -5
Value Buy
RE: Reply 176: Personally, I check in here when I see new postings. I find use in posts like Reply # 174; especially the synopsis of what is going on in the Commodities Market. What happens in that Market absolutely affects what happens in the Equity, Derivatives & (sigh) Bond Markets.
I don't really say anything here, as there really hasn't been any need (IE: differing Opinion on synopsis or direction, ETC..).
I don't think that there are any folks around here that trade Commodities directly or trade Futures as a primary line..
The subject matter {the numbers; percentages} is a bit "dry"; but that is what one expects when reviewing Data as such you list. Still, good information for everyone to know.
You might try following a Post like #174, with a post that gives your take on the Referenced Data.
Anyhow, I think it is a decent thread & appreciate your posting the Data. I find it of use & useful.
D.I.
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Post by ModE98 on Jun 6, 2014 17:11:42 GMT -5
I certainly follow the thread for info, but like D.I., find nothing significant to comment upon. It is a worthwhile thread.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2014 19:50:59 GMT -5
WXYZ: EE is pretty much the place where folks let it all "hang out".
Generally Speaking: I think that many of us who are "Long Timers"; feel similarly about our Threads & Posts.
Wxyz made a good point quite some time back when he pointed out that all one really had to do was look at the VIEW COUNT to see if folks were reading & interested or not. True, to a point but with "thin threads" (ones that don't get updated all that often due to the nature of the data) like this; start to look as though they are ignored or have little value. Yet; that is not always the case.
This thread has value & there are those of us who actually find substantial value in the information contained within it. -----------------------------------------------------------
It has seemed for a good while that there have been many lurkers who read; yet rarely if ever post here at IBB.
Generally, as an Investor I think that this has a bit to do with the fact that many of the folks who lurk are either Newer Investors, Investors who aren't quite sure of which way to actually go; or those who are interested in Investing but don't actually Invest. If that is the case, then it is conceivable that those folks could be a bit hesitant to quiry the old "Grizzled" Investors..
Additionally, many of those who do post here do a very good job of giving very good detail to whatever it is that they are posting about..
Folks wouldn't go swimming with sharks; same as folks hesitate to engage folks who may be at a more advanced level than they are (And this is not form a $$ standpoint; one could be a millionaire & yet be a novice investor. Classic Example would be someone who inherited a million dollars).
Just sayin' ..
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Post by tyfighter3 on Jun 7, 2014 0:41:47 GMT -5
I'm like the rest of us, I do read this thread and like the reflections offered with it when given. There are a lot of folks that don't understand why commodities are priced where they are on any given day. There are so many factors to look at it"s a wonder that a price is even put down on any given commodity. LOL Keep the thread alive VB, we do read it.
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Post by The Virginian on Jun 7, 2014 11:47:01 GMT -5
Value Buy - I too read but do not comment much - But my vote is get the thread going !
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 9, 2014 8:15:57 GMT -5
Thanks for the feedback everyone. Makes me feel better about the thread. Back in my younger days, there was a televisions station in Chicago theat broadcast live, all day discussing all the markets. I guess since Chicago was bigtime in commodities with the Commodity Exchange there was a lot of interest in commodities. The show ran from like 8 am to 3:30 pm weekdays discussing stocks and commodities. after 3:30 it became a Korean speaking station This was before cable networks and the likes of FNN, and even before CNBC was around.
It was a laidback show. Early in the day, they sat at a table drinking coffee, smoking cigarettes, talking markets, and they literally had a mechanical board showing the commodity markets where, the numbers would "flip over" to show the new prices, but did have the delayed ticker prices of stocks at the bottom of the screen. Every hour or sometimes half hour they had an "ask an expert" fifteen minute segments discussing investment opportunities. I am pretty sure it was probably purchased time from the brokers, so you did have to take their advise with a large grain of salt. You would catch brokers pushing stocks who were adding a new share sell program to the public where the company paid the commission to the broker and you bought in with no broker fee, etc. They had brokers who specialized in certain fields who had weekly segments like clockwork that specialized only in certain areas. Stocks, bonds, futures, commodities, etc.
The commodity segments always fascinated me. Ira Epstein was a regular always talking gold and silver, etc. At any rate this show allowed me to see the connection of commodities, inflation, and the connection they have to the flow of stock prices in specific areas. You know, the old science story of a butterfly flapping it wings in Africa creating a storm in Central America, etc. They are all connected. I do not do commodities as it is far to complicated to do on a layman's world. I did have a business colleague who's son went onto the Chicago commodity exchange, who did make it very successfully. He managed to have my business associate retire at 52 based on his son's placement of his father's money. Just wish he had asked me if I wanted to invest in them.
To this day, I see the same format to a slight extent in CNBC and Fox Business with various brokers, but at a much more arms length away approach.
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Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 12, 2014 17:56:46 GMT -5
Oil markets are on fire this week with the free for all in Iraq. I think gold and silver might be next due to fear of the Middle East exploding. Iraq and Libya could possibly be not exporting oil in the very near future affecting Brent and WTI prices all summer. I am worried if gasoline goes retail to $4.50 a gallon this summer, our economy stalls again. Looking at late summer pork futures, no one will be buying pork. Since beef is already high, watch chicken prices to increase due to demand. This may not be a good summer for the American consumer.
My personal portfolio has taken a $5,000 hit the last two days, primarily yesterday. Today, Nisource and Chevron were positive and had me down only $230 on the day for the stock portion of the portfolio. My IRA'S have not posted yet, but will drag me way down imo.....
personal note... this was my 5,000 post to the board!
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