Some good news for Republicans?

[Value Buy]

Nate Silver and the 2014 Senate races

www.cnbc.com/id/101523267

[Value Buy]

I assume some Dems, are getting worried

[djAdvocate]

he has had at at 50/50 for well over a year.  the pivotal race is Hagan in NC.  that race is 50/50.  so, i am really not seeing why the Democrats should be any more worried today than a year ago.

the generic ballot has recently shown some strength for Democrats.  and despite his low ratings, Obama doesn't appear to be weakening at this point.  there is reason to suspect that the GOP is at HWM right now.

in short, i don't see a compelling argument here, and the senate is still a tossup.

[Value Buy]

I knew mentioning Nate would draw you in!

[djAdvocate]

Mar 29, 2014 11:44:36 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I knew mentioning Nate would draw you in!

should i point out that he is not really a political analyst any more, or would you rather i didn't?

edit: just to be clear, i agree with the analysis.  he just doesn't do it full time any more.

[Value Buy]

Mar 29, 2014 11:46:21 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Mar 29, 2014 11:44:36 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I knew mentioning Nate would draw you in!

should i point out that he is not really a political analyst any more, or would you rather i didn't?

Thanks.

I did not know/remember that.

My question is why did he do this analysis then?

[djAdvocate]

Mar 29, 2014 11:49:05 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Mar 29, 2014 11:46:21 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

should i point out that he is not really a political analyst any more, or would you rather i didn't?

Thanks.

I did not know/remember that.

My question is why did he do this analysis then?

probably the same reason i post on this board.  i like it, and i have a hard time giving it up.  but he is a paid contributor now, not the guy in charge.  Nate is working in sports, now.

edit: in case you missed it, i think the analysis is accurate.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 29, 2014 11:07:11 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Nate Silver and the 2014 Senate races

www.cnbc.com/id/101523267

the analysis is actually HERE:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/

just fyi.

[djAdvocate]

VB:

Here is the current map from RCP.  I really like this map.  It is the best one I have seen to date:

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html#previous_changes

It is also showing R+6.

i am not going to cross Nate.  there is plenty of reason for the GOP to be optimistic.

[Virgil Showlion]

there is reason to suspect that the GOP is at [high water mark] right now.  in short, i don't see a compelling argument here, and the senate is still a tossup.

DJ v1.0

edit: in case you missed it, i think the analysis is accurate. i am not going to cross Nate. there is plenty of reason for the GOP to be optimistic.

DJ v1.1



Software reviewers generally approved of the upgrade but raised concerns about a lack of consistency in the user interface. In an article for DJWorld magazine, editor Daniel Feron wrote "Even after several minutes of searching through [DJ v1.1], I wasn't able to find a single feature from the previous version."

[djAdvocate]

Mar 30, 2014 3:10:17 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

there is reason to suspect that the GOP is at [high water mark] right now.  in short, i don't see a compelling argument here, and the senate is still a tossup.

DJ v1.0

edit: in case you missed it, i think the analysis is accurate. i am not going to cross Nate. there is plenty of reason for the GOP to be optimistic.

DJ v1.1

these are not contradictory.  i think Nate is probably right.  but i also don't think the argument is compelling.  i am not going to expose my reasoning to further scrutiny, however.

as with Mitt in the last election, a lot has to continue going right for the GOP.  we'll see how that pans out for them.

[Virgil Showlion]

Mar 30, 2014 10:15:08 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Mar 30, 2014 3:10:17 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

DJ v1.0

DJ v1.1

 i am not going to expose my reasoning to further scrutiny, however.

I think that's probably wise.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 30, 2014 10:33:27 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Mar 30, 2014 10:15:08 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

 i am not going to expose my reasoning to further scrutiny, however.

I think that's probably wise.

it is too speculative, and i don't like to speculate.  i have seen a 60/40 spread go to even odds in a week with Nate.

[EVT1]

I'll stick with Nate as well- he has proven to be reliable and neutral- whether I like the news or not.  But of course that is the prediction from current polls- still a long time until the vote- everything can change before then- or maybe not- we will see.

Unlike Fox News, Mitt, and Karl Rove I will not be the least bit shocked when my preferences meet reality. 

[djAdvocate]

Mar 30, 2014 19:58:46 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

I'll stick with Nate as well- he has proven to be reliable and neutral- whether I like the news or not.  But of course that is the prediction from current polls- still a long time until the vote- everything can change before then- or maybe not- we will see.

that is really the ONLY grounds for protest.  and let's face it, the further the election is away, the less accurate the prediction.  what Nate is saying is that unless something changes, the GOP will win the Senate.  i would not raise a FINGER against that assertion.  but saying that nothing will change is another matter entirely.  things WILL change: for better or for worse for the GOP.  a lot can go wrong, but right now, it is "advantage, GOP".  off year elections generally are.

Unlike Fox News, Mitt, and Karl Rove I will not be the least bit shocked when my preferences meet reality. 

i am not that concerned with 2014.  if the Dems lose the Senate, Obama will have to buy some new ink for his Veto stamp, and the GOP will get to see obstructionism as they only imagined it.  that will probably mean that the next two years will be like the last two, which is fine by me.  the last two years have been very very good for me.

[EVT1]

Then there  is president Hilary   Don't which drives them nuttier- a black man or a white woman.

[Virgil Showlion]

Mar 30, 2014 22:25:53 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Then there  is president Hilary   Don't which drives them nuttier- a black man or a white woman.

Hold that mule, boys! It's 2016 and I'm comin' ba-aaaaaaaaaack!

[djAdvocate]

in case anyone is wondering what Nate is looking at- the basis for this prediction- it rests partly in Obama's public approval, which is indeed down 3% from last election- and the straw poll congressional data, which needs to be at least +3% to favor Democrats in an off year.  right now, it is +1.7%.