Money Supply is UP not down..M3 broke $17 Trillion Dollar

[bimetalaupt]

Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates..... M1.........M2
3 Months from Nov. 2013 TO Feb. 2014.....................18.3........7.5
6 Months from Aug. 2013 TO Feb. 2014.....................13.4........6.6
12 Months from Feb. 2013 TO Feb. 2014...................10.4........6.3

M3  $17097.29 Billion up y/y 7.8%
djia to m3 2009 to 2013 96.23155081%

Now they worry Ms. Y is a hawk?

  MMXVBETA SHOWS A CORRELATION m1 TO DJIA OF 0.76202252245374 OR 76.202252245374%. 

BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

m3=17,209.72 BILLION USD!!

UP 8.3% YEAR/YEAR

MONEY SUPPLY HAS THE DRIVING  VECTORED POWER YOU CAN BET ON.  M3 WITH A 9MONTH TO 15 MONTH PHASS DELAY IN THE INDEPENDANT VERABLE ; THEN  WE SHOULD SEE SOME ECONOMIC POWER OF VECTORED MONEY.

AND THEY CALL MS. Y A HAWK BECAUSE BOND BUYING IS UNDER CONTROLE.  M3 IS RUNNING FASTER THEN M2!!  BULLISH BET FOR DJIA ABOVE 18,000 PER MMXVBETA!

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

www.nowandfutures.com/images/m3b.png

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

With Putin and the Klan "only wanting" a full fledged referendum across Ukraine, and Moldova waiting in the wings for after the fact, you know the stories for the next couple of weeks will be "the crisis in Crimea is over".

[damnotagain]

I see the 30day/4week t bills went negative earlier this year. That's never a good sign.

[damnotagain]

Bruce , with so much debt and money velocity in decline are we in a recovery?

[bimetalaupt]

Mar 29, 2014 19:54:03 GMT -5 damnotagain said:

Bruce , with so much debt and money velocity in decline are we in a recovery?

Not Again!!!!

That is the 64 Trillion Dollar Question!!!Personal Debts ( Credit Cards) are down in  all 50 states!! Savings rate was 4.3% in February vs. 4.1% for 12/2013!! So Spending is weak. We need 10% saving for future growth. 

The paradox is clear: Saving increase hurts money velocity but helps future growth.  If we cut spending to the Habits of the German Family we could see 10% saving and unemployment(IMHO). Our GDP is 67% dependent on our spending. USA Q4 2013 GROW 2.6% VS. GERMANY 1.3%

I want to know how many $$$$ are deposited in the Family "Sealy" bank or Six Pack Joe's -beer-wallet?

Just my thoughts,

BiMetalAuPt

www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/germany-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=grgdppgy

www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-states-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=gdp+cyoy

[damnotagain]

Margin debt currently stands at 2.5% GDP . Last time it was at these levels we had the crash of 2000 (2.7% GDP ) , 2007 (2.6% GDP ). One asset bubble after another.
Just a thought . 

[bimetalaupt]

Mar 30, 2014 16:34:39 GMT -5 damnotagain said:

Margin debt currently stands at 2.5% GDP . Last time it was at these levels we had the crash of 2000 (2.7% GDP ) , 2007 (2.6% GDP ). One asset bubble after another.
Just a thought . 

NOT AGAIN,

I see where Interactive Broker offered Margin accounts rates to 0.5%.  Betting with house money and they make all the rules.  I am increasing my cash reserves and T-Bond holdings.  Betting against the risk and re-allocating. In 2000 I learned a new term: AMT.

In 2000 Bonds were paying 8% and no one wanted them.  Time to buy!!

Also, Just a thought,

Bi

[bimetalaupt]

Last projection for MMXVBeta for DJIA 18,785. This is 12-15 month projection based on the larger Delta of M3 ( July 1, 2015).

MMXV has no idea of what Ms. Y. will do with T bond FREE FLOT as it is only feed Money INCOME. The worms  feed it is a lot of B.S.  Well the E. Hortenses like it wet.  B.S.= BOND STIMULATOR

Just a thought,

B

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

B,

Yes exactly, MMXV also has no idea the illogical moves that Putin is making. The encyclopedia has a pretty eerie insight though...

I guess time will tell...

Munich Agreement

Munich Agreement, (September 30, 1938), settlement reached by Germany, Great Britain, France, and Italy that permitted German annexation of the Sudetenland in western Czechoslovakia. After his success in absorbing Austria into Germany proper in March 1938, Adolf Hitler looked covetously at Czechoslovakia, where about three million people in the Sudeten area were of German origin. It became known in May 1938 that Hitler and his generals were drawing up a plan for the occupation of Czechoslovakia. The Czechoslovaks were relying on military assistance from France, with which they had an alliance. The Soviet Union also had a treaty with Czechoslovakia, and it indicated willingness to cooperate with France and Great Britain if they decided to come to Czechoslovakia’s defense, but the Soviet Union and its potential services were ignored throughout the crisis.

As Hitler continued to make inflammatory speeches demanding that Germans in Czechoslovakia be reunited with their homeland, war seemed imminent. Neither France nor Britain felt prepared to defend Czechoslovakia, however, and both were anxious to avoid a military confrontation with Germany at almost any cost. In mid-September, Neville Chamberlain, the British prime minister, offered to go to Hitler’s retreat at Berchtesgaden to discuss the situation personally with the Führer. Hitler agreed to take no military action without further discussion, and Chamberlain agreed to try to persuade his cabinet and the French to accept the results of a plebiscite in the Sudetenland. The French premier, Édouard Daladier, and his foreign minister, Georges Bonnet, then went to London, where a joint proposal was prepared stipulating that all areas with a population that was more than 50 percent Sudeten German be returned to Germany. The Czechoslovaks were not consulted. The Czechoslovak government initially rejected the proposal but was forced to accept it reluctantly on September 21.

On September 22 Chamberlain again flew to Germany and met Hitler at Godesberg, where he was dismayed to learn that Hitler had stiffened his demands: he now wanted the Sudetenland occupied by the German army and the Czechoslovaks evacuated from the area by September 28. Chamberlain agreed to submit the new proposal to the Czechoslovaks, who rejected it, as did the British cabinet and the French. On the 24th the French ordered a partial mobilization; the Czechoslovaks had ordered a general mobilization one day earlier.

In a last-minute effort to avoid war, Chamberlain then proposed that a four-power conference be convened immediately to settle the dispute. Hitler agreed, and on September 29, Hitler, Chamberlain, Daladier, and Italian dictator Benito Mussolini met in Munich, where Mussolini introduced a written plan that was accepted by all as the Munich Agreement. (Many years later it was discovered that the so-called Italian plan had been prepared in the German Foreign Office.) It was almost identical to the Godesberg proposal: the German army was to complete the occupation of the Sudetenland by October 10, and an international commission would decide the future of other disputed areas. Czechoslovakia was informed by Britain and France that it could either resist Germany alone or submit to the prescribed annexations. The Czechoslovak government chose to submit.

Before leaving Munich, Chamberlain and Hitler signed a paper declaring their mutual desire to resolve differences through consultation to assure peace. Both Daladier and Chamberlain returned home to jubilant welcoming crowds relieved that the threat of war had passed, and Chamberlain told the British public that he had achieved “peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time.” His words were immediately challenged by his greatest critic, Winston Churchill, who declared, “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour and you will have war.” Indeed, Chamberlain’s policies were discredited the following year, when Hitler annexed the remainder of Czechoslovakia in March and then precipitated World War II by invading Poland in September. The Munich Agreement became a byword for the futility of appeasing expansionist totalitarian states, although it did buy time for the Allies to increase their military preparedness.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Just one quick note, this would be part of that feeling I was having at the start of the year. The one about how its going to be time to take God in to account with all decisions, like we already do. Ya know?

[usaone]

Putin is no Hitler. His Military is in shambles......duct tape and chewing gum.

Can not in any way compare Putins declining military with the quickly strengthening and technology driven German military of the late 1930's and early 1940's.



We have backed Putin into a corner.


M3 continues to grow. No crash....just continued sideways trading............3.5% GDP the rest of the year.....

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The US economy could grow at 8.6% once this all gets going USawon... The US economy isn't the issue.

Don't forget, Germany's army was crap as well this is why they laughed at Hitler off the start, it came out of the Weimar Republic. Putin has a nuclear arsenal my friend, and way more natural resources than Hitler ever did. In fact, that's why Hitler turned on the Soviets, he wanted to control what they had.

It's the parallels to the start that stand out right now. I have said repeatedly that what is going on right now is Putin and his buddies think they are wining in Syria, something that the NY times reported on.(He also has a buddy with warships on the way to the US coast, and Obama has said he worries about NYC). Putin is spreading himself thin and what happens next, more than likely, is the Jihad hits central Asia. Putin will end up a footnote in this war, as the guy who thought he was Hitler, ya know?

The war in the Mid east is full blow, it's unmanageable, there is no way this just goes away diplomatically at this point. China is falling apart more and more each day and the CPC knows it.

All the pieces are there USAwon. The icing on the cake is that we have to trust all these world leaders to diplomatically solve all these intense socioeconomic/geopolitical issues. With how many crazy dictators/extremists are out there, what do you think the chances of that happening are?

[damnotagain]

Mr L states

"I want to know how many $$$$ are deposited in the Family "Sealy" bank or Six Pack Joe's -beer-wallet?" 

With 47 million people enrolled on Snap added with 36% of working Americans or 117 million more with as little as 1000 dollars in savings. I think ol joes wallet is pretty empty.
 When he sleeps at night I don think its on a stack of cash , just worn out springs.

Money is moving to slow though our economy no matter how much the fed prints it's not making it to Main Street just Wall Street. 

[bimetalaupt]

Money is moving to slow though our economy no matter how much the fed prints it's not making it to Main Street just Wall Street.

Not again,

Great Post!!

Yes, but the $1000 in savings is only at the banks.  I must say that you have again hit the nail on the head: V1 sucks.  The press is working 24/7 and Joe Six Pack is not.  As 30 year T-Bond interest rates are now 100 point above 2013 the growth in M3 as well as M1 has accelerated. 

Rather strong quandary with interest being income for many retired members of the economy. 

 BCL


 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I guess ole Joe should have been a bit more concerned with saving over the last 30-40 years, as opposed to living the yuppie lifestyle, eh?

It's hard for velocity when everything is kash deals.. Hence the MMXV GDP correlation and almost 2 trillion on corporate America's books.

Did we notice the charts on the forward look thread in regards to the excess reserves starting to flow to the economy?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Ya know what's really funny about this same old conversation to me? If I had been listening to an end of the world false profit about how to "invest" money, I would be chewing on some sour grapes right now, that is for sure...

In fact, I would imagine I would be looking for anything and everything that I could to try and sell the story that the US's slow and steady recovery was nothing but a conspiracy.

[usaone]

Its all about when the banks start lending and the big Corps start spending on Cap Ex.

Look at car loans......if banks start lending like that through the rest of the economy look out!


Still think Putin is all bark and no bite......his Nukes are in shambles too and he would never use them.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I still think you're underestimating the gravity of the situation that the Mid East has turned into USAwon. I underestimated Putin's resolve, and it's the parallels of the situation that are leading us to the next big world event. Again, I'm not saying Putin will be anything more than a footnote in all this, but I also think you are underestimating how easy it is the repurpose a nuclear war head.

I will ask again, do you think that all these massive problems will be solved diplomatically and will just go away?

On Ukraine, Obama’s Munich Moment

[bimetalaupt]

A+++,
I did a BEAR calculation with 12- 15 month rolling time frame
Projection by still Beta MMXVBETA was 14001.8909156451 for a 14.694% downside from 16412.71
With the Standard Deviation of 19.0745192716% for DJIA
MMXVBETA  does not see a 25% downside as reported Friday on CNBC by ?.  That would be greater then SD.. He must be projecting the next Black Swan event.  Russia? Israel? Gas Pipeline to Germany?
might be time for bonds to pull hard on their bull market 30 Year run!! This bull has it second wind for a strong kick if we see 14001.8909156451.
Correlation of M3 and DJIA is 63.5519856754%:effective NOW!
Numbers are all cut and paste fro MMXVBETA. Work on SuperIron in C++.  IA64 mathematics  30 nth place is significant.
Correlation of M1 to DJIA is NOW 77.119310999637207260093418881297%.
DJUA Forecast 15 month with this IF bear market is 700.652419455523727265244815498590: Bought DUK.
Both DJUA and DJTS are up for the YEAR.
 Does anyone follow DJ composite 65 Average?
My numbers and I claim all rights to myself except for A+++ use.If used; please site LenData,USA  as owner of the data.
Just a thought,
Bruce LendrumMBA  aka BiMetalAuPt

Expert 50/50 has given a directive back to 50/50, but that is heavy on cash.  only a projection back to normal for the system, IE within SD. 

[damnotagain]

Moderator reply number 18 is off topic . If you could remove it to one of his doom and gloom threads ," Terrorist use plane for bomb " ... "Africa is China's problem"  ?? Or Maybe where he post how great God is at the same time persecuting a "false profit " on a daily bases while he was here. Lets not trash Bruce's thread ham. Stay on topic or leave it alone.

[damnotagain]

Apr 1, 2014 23:46:20 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I guess ole Joe should have been a bit more concerned with saving over the last 30-40 years, as opposed to living the yuppie lifestyle, eh?

It's hard for velocity when everything is kash deals.. Hence the MMXV GDP correlation and almost 2 trillion on corporate America's books.

Did we notice the charts on the forward look thread in regards to the excess reserves starting to flow to the economy?

Ol joe was to busy working while his company has been off shoring for the last
30-40 years. Moving all that profit from the hands of the tax man. 

feel free to post the Feds definition of money velocity. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 6, 2014 3:37:34 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

A+++,
I did a BEAR calculation with 12- 15 month rolling time frame
Projection by still Beta MMXVBETA was 14001.8909156451 for a 14.694% downside from 16412.71
With the Standard Deviation of 19.0745192716% for DJIA
MMXVBETA  does not see a 25% downside as reported Friday on CNBC by ?.  That would be greater then SD.. He must be projecting the next Black Swan event.  Russia? Israel? Gas Pipeline to Germany?
might be time for bonds to pull hard on their bull market 30 Year run!! This bull has it second wind for a strong kick if we see 14001.8909156451.
Correlation of M3 and DJIA is 63.5519856754%:effective NOW!
Numbers are all cut and paste fro MMXVBETA. Work on SuperIron in C++.  IA64 mathematics  30 nth place is significant.
Correlation of M1 to DJIA is NOW 77.119310999637207260093418881297%.
DJUA Forecast 15 month with this IF bear market is 700.652419455523727265244815498590: Bought DUK.
Both DJUA and DJTS are up for the YEAR.
 Does anyone follow DJ composite 65 Average?
My numbers and I claim all rights to myself except for A+++ use.If used; please site LenData,USA  as owner of the data.
Just a thought,
Bruce LendrumMBA  aka BiMetalAuPt

Expert 50/50 has given a directive back to 50/50, but that is heavy on cash.  only a projection back to normal for the system, IE within SD. 

B,

Thanks for the rights, makes me feel like part of the family!

I'm with you on the upside, and I agree that the SD of Super Iron is unmatched. I would say that the 30% drop that was called the other day is in direct relation to what USAwon and I were talking about above here, aka "the jerks" as you used to call them.

I have always said that I take a balanced approach to life, and I have always said that if I see short term problems I will shout them from the roof tops. I see that I have the doom and gloomers around here spinning trying to figure it out... Amazing what happens when a level head prevails, eh?

Off to post a bit more on Russia.

Hope you guys had a good supper.

God Bless,

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Bruce,

I forgot to add one thing, you are 100% correct, if we do go down from here, the bull market in bonds will still be on. It will all depend on how it goes.? I guess when it comes down to it this is why I buy on the red and hold, we talk about reducing risk, right? The market could always go lower in a correction/bear market, but when we get back to the highs its all been a nice discount.

Later,

[bimetalaupt]

CONT
term M1 bear forecast  15408.5689604281 for DJIA going with correlation of 77.119310999637%
term M2 bear forecast  14428.0830657174 for DJIA

MMXVBETA JUST NOT THAT BEARISH AS A 30% DROP.  MMXVBETA has 17367.8995750647 based on 10 Year T-Note for M3 for the bullish estimate for DJIA above 18,000 12-15 month projection.

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

B,

I hear ya. At the same time, it's a math model that doesn't see emotion. Isn't that basically every headwind that we face right now, aside from the massive property bubble in China??

As you say, just a thought,

[usaone]

I respect your opinion A.

When I look back though, there are always hotspots around the world. Especially in the middle East.

We had the Iran/Iraq war raging in the 1980's with over a Million people killed. That was going on throughout our historic bull run under Reagan.

He also pulled back and concentrated on the domestic side as it looks like Obama is now doing. Reagan amped up the rhetoric against Russia but kept our troops home and worked on getting our economy going.

Even when several hundred Marines were killed in Lebanon, we kept our focus on the domestic side.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I understand all that for sure my friend. At the same time, in the 1980's we hadn't been in an actual war in the Mid East for 13 yrs, and it wasn't preceded by an attack on US soil. The Jihadists that are basically in control of a large part of the mid east now, were rag tag fighters that Charlie Wilson helped arm to fight back Soviet aggression. We weren't worried about a nuclear Iran, and the wars that were fought then were about territory and resources. They weren't ideological civil wars based off of religious sectarian values, which is exactly what this war has turned into after 13 yrs.

China wasn't the second biggest economy in the world in the 1980's, and Japan didnt have 600 million+ people still living in abject poverty when their property bubble burst.

There also wasn't a far right element rising across Europe in the 1980's....

The period before Regan took office didn't see the worst housing bust since the great depression, and when Regan took office, the US debt to GDP ratio wasnt as high as it was right before WW2, like it is now.

Also durning the 1980's Russia was the other world super power, it wasn't a quasi Regional power that was spreading itself thin trying to reassert itself back into world power statues by fanning a decade and a half old war in the Mid East.

Honestly, there are parallels to the entire 20th century going on all over the place, and that my friend is the biggest problem of all. For a lack of a better analogy, it's like a big zit that has come to a head.

I am in no way saying that it's the end of the world, but I will say that it's a good thing that neither Roman or Muslim scripture holds any real authority. It was my opinion before that we could get through all of this slowly and steadily over the next 30 yrs or so, but there are just so many dictators and extremists out there that hurl propaganda against the US and Israel that at this point I think its impossible for that to happen.

I hope I'm wrong now and my initial analysis of the situation will stand. But like the first post on my free enterprise thread states, the war didn't end in 1945, it just turned cold. The bottom line is that we still get to the other side(thanks JC), its just looking more and more like it's going to be one hell of a time getting there.(That part is on us humans). Stay .

[bimetalaupt]

NYFRB DRAINS LIQUIDITY TODAY  on RATE 0.09  REVERSE AT 0.05% BANKS ARE MAKING $$$$$ ON THIS DEAL.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

Temporary Open Market Operations for April 08, 2014
Last Updated: April 08, 2014 1:16 PM
Number of Operations Today: 1





See announcement from April 4, 2014. There were 53 bidders in today's operation.

Deal Date: Tuesday, April 08, 2014
Delivery Date: Tuesday, April 08, 2014
Maturity Date: Wednesday, April 09, 2014
Type of Operation1: Reverse Repo
Auction Method: Fixed-Rate
Settlement: Same Day
Term of Operation2: 1 Day
Operation Close Time: 01:15 PM




Results Amount ($B) Rate (%)

Collateral.. Type.. Submitted.. Accepted. Stop-Out3.. WeightedAverage4. High....Low
...........Treasury...... 94.435...94.435.... 0.05.......... 0.050................... 0.05..... 0.05 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Banks and companies are probably still going to be making money. Patience is the key to being a contrarian. . Well that and not minding being called crazy. Like reshoring, housing bottoms, BS peak oil claims with oil and gas ramping up in the USA, slow and steady economic growth.......

Great point B!

Edit: I forgot space tourism/mining and the colonization of mars on that list...