DJIA hits new High today 17100.18: 30y up yield 3.25%

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 24, 2014 2:40:53 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Winter was to say the least the leading delta change. M1 is producing little results for the huge increase in this independent vector. The current correlation of M1 to GDP according to Richard Fisher from Dallas FRB has  evaporated. 

Current action with GDP is not correlated to M1: IE V1 has been in decline.  ROC IS NEGITIVE.

JUST A THOUGH ,

BiMetalAuPt

With about 60% stated accuracy, I'm betting on tier M1 slowly and steadily making it's way into the economy. Just like the last five years. On the other hand, talk about tier 1 going into huge capital projects like gas and oil exports. Boats being built, etc, etc, etc...

[tyfighter3]

It is a stat that shows where the BEEF will be in the future, growth that is,long term gravy, mouth watering desserts. I must be hungry, oh it's lunch time. lol How I love stats.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Lol.. No doubt.. Once the capital requirements are met..... BEEF!

[bimetalaupt]

Bonds Market Summary

3:31 pm - The Week in Review

Treasuries saw a mixed week as a re-escalation in eastern Ukraine provided support to longer dated maturities.
Traders sought safety on Friday on following reports Russian troops were conducting exercises on the Ukraine border.
A quiet week of economic data saw durable orders -ex transportation (2.0% actual v. 0.5% expected) and Michigan Sentiment - Final (84.1 actual v. 82.6 expected) outpace

Hard to forget we live in a violent world.

[bimetalaupt]

16576.66 Dec 31,2013

16361.46 APRIL 25,2014

K LINE IS 43.76...

KEEP THE POWDER DRY!!HOLD OFF FOR K < 20!!

Just as thought,

Bi

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 27, 2014 22:29:04 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

16576.66 Dec 31,2013

16361.46 APRIL 25,2014

K LINE IS 43.76...

KEEP THE POWDER DRY!!HOLD OFF FOR K < 20!!

Just as thought,

Bi

,

I hear that!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 27, 2014 12:24:10 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Bonds Market Summary

3:31 pm - The Week in Review

Treasuries saw a mixed week as a re-escalation in eastern Ukraine provided support to longer dated maturities.
Traders sought safety on Friday on following reports Russian troops were conducting exercises on the Ukraine border.
A quiet week of economic data saw durable orders -ex transportation (2.0% actual v. 0.5% expected) and Michigan Sentiment - Final (84.1 actual v. 82.6 expected) outpace

Hard to forget we live in a violent world.

It's funny that you say this Bruce. I was reading through my Free Enterprise thread last night. It's all in there and most of that thread was wrote in 2011, which makes all the predictions even more eerie.. The US and China working together militarily against the Muslim Jihad. Civil unrest because people want a better life(factory strikes in the 3rd world). A US oil and gas/manufacturing renaissance that really stated kicking in.

However, there were two big points that were made to me which I brushed aside. WXYZ and Mid Western were both saying the same thing you are with the bold point in your quoted post. I was forgetting how violent the world is/people are.

In 2011 I was arguing that technology and communication was going to keep the world on the side of unrest. WXYZ essentially pointed out that there was a possibility that it would just be more graphic because of technology. As we can see in the Mid East, the sectarian war has been using social media to recruit and has no effect on how violent the situation is.

Mid Western brought up a point regarding the French Revolution, how Napoleon hijacked it and turned it into a war of his ambitions. He was also saying what was going on in 2011 was a rejection of globalization by the people(which isn't true). I missed his point about Napoleon, and I even stated this in a response to him. At that time I could not see a world leader that had the ability to turn this from unrest/regional instability into all out global conflict. That leader turned out to be Putin.

That said, it still doesn't change the end result of my 2009 analysis. Why? Because the world is not rejecting globalization, in fact, it's just the opposite. People everywhere were putting so much pressure on these dick...tators and intolerant extremists, that they had no choice but to try and go for broke. Which is exactly what they did. So, while theses terrible human beings are in the process of breaking the global economy, it won't be beyond repair.

The reason it won't be beyond repair is because all that has happened since JC was here is wars over the global economy.(Just like JC said there would be when he walked this Earth) Like I have essentially been saying since I started posting, the whole point of the messiah's life was to bring on the Kingdom of God. The way that will be achieved is through Free Enterprise. Where every man, woman, and child is free to take part in a decent living and has the opportunity to choose to not live in poverty.

While I was, without a doubt, being naive about our ability as humans to get to the other side without another global conflict. I know for a fact that what lies on the other side of this is the promised land. Why? Because every time before this we fixed it and moved forward and we have never been this close to a true global economy. The fact is that the hegemony that exists today spans to all corners of the earth, and everyone everywhere is operating in a very similar way.(First time in history)

There obviously has to be a giant catalyst that brings us all in line with the oneness that is God. I apologize to you Bruce, and to anyone else going back to when I started posting(except Decoy) that was trying to warn me that there was a very real possibility of a global conflict in the imminent future.

God Bless us all.

[bimetalaupt]

DR.A+++ ,

THANK-YOU FOR YOUR KIND WORDS. WHAT A+++ WAS REFERING TO AS WELL AS OTHER THINGS IS THE CURRENT AND PAST STATE OF THE BANKING SYSTEM IN THE EU: STILL HAS A MASSIVE CAPITAL DEFECENCY AND MOST OF THE ASSETS ARE SOLVERT BONDS THAT ARE NOT FROM SOLVENT NATIONS.

WELL: DJ TOTAL USA STOCK MARKET INDEX IS NOW 19539.15:UP FROM 18947.89 DEC 31,2013.

The correlation of M3 to DJTM is 54.05100%: Make money at Lost Wages, NV with odds like that.  In 15 to 20 years these you will not see these bumps on the charts: they will look like a straight line. 

Just a thought,

Bi

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 28, 2014 17:09:44 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

DR.A+++ ,

THANK-YOU FOR YOUR KIND WORDS. WHAT A+++ WAS REFERING TO AS WELL AS OTHER THINGS IS THE CURRENT AND PAST STATE OF THE BANKING SYSTEM IN THE EU: STILL HAS A MASSIVE CAPITAL DEFECENCY AND MOST OF THE ASSETS ARE SOLVERT BONDS THAT ARE NOT FROM SOLVENT NATIONS.

WELL: DJ TOTAL USA STOCK MARKET INDEX IS NOW 19539.15:UP FROM 18947.89 DEC 31,2013.

The correlation of M3 to DJTM is 54.05100%: Make money at Lost Wages, NV with odds like that.  In 15 to 20 years these you will not see these bumps on the charts: they will look like a straight line. 

Just a thought,

Bi

Dr L.

Thank you for being patient with me. That is exactly what I am saying. That, and the Chinese banking system, and Putin doing what Napoleon did on a global scale using Hitler's playbook, and the Chinese military... Well you get the picture... Even in the face of all that.. Well I will just post some long term charts....

God bless,

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's been about 14 years now of sideways action, and since the current environment is a mash up of the last 150 years or so, we could easily break 20+ years of sideway movement. Straight lines indeed Dr. L!

[bimetalaupt]

,

Look at the numbers for the English point of view: Earnings Yield = 6.13% vs. 3.4380% for the 30 year  t-Bond.  This will give you an  EQUITY RISK PREMIUM OF 2.6970% FOR 30 YEARS OR 3.4870% FOR 10 YEARS.

IT was also interesting IBM raised the dividends by some 16% to $4.40! Watch M3 for the acceleration of loanable long term monies needed for capital development. Well I will take the four point mark above Dec 31, 2013 and see you at the worm pit.

Well we are betting on black(aka blue line %K = 5%) and with a ERP of almost 3.5%(10 year) and M3 growth greater then M2 we should see a strong market in 15 months (Q3 2015). May has been a good month for long term investing in Power and drugs over the years.

Just a thought,

Bi

MMXV-BETA est. is a bit higher: 6.8237719712% as a reflection of a higher Price/book then 1.000: producing ERP for 30 years of 3.3657%.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

I did notice IBM upped their dividend! Add that to the $20 a share from the start of the year... Now IBM is a tech company with future growth in mind.

We could really see some growth when we start churning out equipment... How the market will like how this growth happens is a questions yet to be answered..

I still have a hard time trusting math models that don't see what Putin is up to. Everything I laid out in early March on the kman's thread is happening.. The biggest right now being Putin is spreading himself thin, and is on the road to destabilizing the East...

Putin's Promises To Eastern Ukraine Could Bankrupt Russia

Won't stop me from meeting you at the worm pit though.. Now that this big out of town job is out of the way, time to take the necessary steps on the path to increasing MY long term earnings potential.

God bless,

[bimetalaupt]

War with Bonds and Russian Vodka...Lead me to the worm pit: We got a lot of fishing to do...

Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options 
3.3810 Down 0.03(0.79%) 2:59PM EDT

CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX) -Chicago Options
2.5950 Down 0.02(0.61%) 2:59PM EDT

Now we can talk potatoes and fermentation: looks like the Black Sea will be a hot bed of oil and gas prices.  Gasoline will be profitable for Valerio!! 10% ethanol will make the farmers rich and voters happy.  

Just a thought,

Bi   

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Great points, as always, Dr. L...

How about those sanctions, eh??

SocGen Posts Surprise Profit Decline on Russia Writedown

[bimetalaupt]

Online Valuation for VLO - 5 / 7 / 2014 
Intrinsic Stock Value 167.13

Not bad for a stock that sold for 35 in Sept 2013 

Some one is making some real money exporting Diesel made from very heavy Canadian Oil from sand.

ValuePro 2002
General Pro Forma Screen
VLO
Period Revenues NOP Adj.
Taxes NOPAT Invest. Deprec. Change in
Invest. Change in
Working
Capital FCFF Discount
Factor Discounted
FCFF
0 136591
1 159811.47 4282.95 1879.14 2403.81 3388 1821.85 1566.15 805.75 31.91 0.94 30
2 186979.42 5011.05 2198.6 2812.45 3963.96 2131.57 1832.39 942.73 37.33 0.89 33.22
3 218765.92 5862.93 2572.36 3290.57 4637.84 2493.93 2143.91 1102.99 43.67 0.84 36.68
4 255956.13 6859.62 3009.66 3849.96 5426.27 2917.9 2508.37 1290.5 51.09 0.79 40.36
5 299468.67 8025.76 3521.3 4504.46 6348.74 3413.94 2934.8 1509.89 59.77 0.75 44.83
6 350378.34 9390.14 4119.92 5270.22 7428.02 3994.31 3433.71 1766.57 69.94 0.71 49.66
7 409942.66 10986.46 4820.31 6166.15 8690.78 4673.35 4017.43 2066.88 81.84 0.67 54.83
8 479632.91 12854.16 5639.76 7214.4 10168.22 5467.82 4700.4 2418.25 95.75 0.63 60.32
9 561170.51 15039.37 6598.52 8440.85 11896.81 6397.34 5499.47 2829.35 112.03 0.6 67.22
10 656569.5 17596.06 7720.27 9875.79 13919.27 7484.89 6434.38 3310.34 131.07 0.56 73.4
Residual 167008.82 93524.94







Discounted Excess Return Period FCFF 490.52 Total Corporate Value 111221.46
Discounted Corporate Residual Value 93524.94 Less Debt (6463)
Short-Term Assets 17206 Less Preferred Stock (0)
Total Corporate Value 111221.46 Less Short-Term Liabilities (13668)
Total Value to Common Equity 91090.46
Intrinsic Stock Value 166.22

[truthbound]

I love how people freak out over this stuff. Oh my God it hit 1000! The crash is upon us! Oh noes it hit 10,000! The end is nigh!

It wil always go up. In 10 years they will be screaming about it hitting 25,000.

[bimetalaupt]

May 8, 2014 2:48:31 GMT -5 truthbound said:

I love how people freak out over this stuff. Oh my God it hit 1000! The crash is upon us! Oh noes it hit 10,000! The end is nigh!

It wil always go up. In 10 years they will be screaming about it hitting 25,000.

5,

It is all about risk: VL0 had invested well over three billion on a H2 driven Cat cracker to produce diesel/gasoline from low cost very heavy imported oil.  Now the oil is coming from Western Canada over Rail Roads.  I think 166 will be a reach but when the moment drivers blast in we could see Superior's like return( late 1950's).  It is nice to see increased use of the Methane production in Texas to produce H2(via CH4 to H2 Reformers). 

For the DJIA we have a projection for 15 months ( q3 2015) of 18,000 from MMXV-BETA from Money supply M3.

Just a thought,

Bi

[bimetalaupt]

Back the DJIA M3 study.
The correlation of DJIA to M3 is now recorded at 63.558500% ( or 63.558500151941836%). 
ok WITH 7.7% GROWTH in  M3 y/y
and a dividend yield of 2.17%
Gives you a total return of 9.87% current. With a beta average of 0.92

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Looks like the 50/50 should set up nicely for the end of the year buying season..

[bimetalaupt]

With M3 at a new high of 17382.52 MMXV-Beta has increased 15 month projection (Oct 1, 2015) DJIA TO $20,039.2288106.
PROJECTION HAS A 64.363737935927887%HISTORICAL CORRELATION WITH M3!
STANDARD DEVIATION OF DJIA IS 19.45362058911% ( AS OF 6/27/2014)

Just a thought on the last run  of MMXV-Beta.

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

One thing, we have been talking about this since the start of the year... BIS: Central banks warned of 'false sense of security'

God bless,

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 29, 2014 22:41:18 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

,

One thing, we have been talking about this since the start of the year... BIS: Central banks warned of 'false sense of security'

God bless,

A++++,
This is the same BIS that missed the CDO and Credit Swap crash that destroyed Lehman Brothers and AIG?  How about
Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)
-DJI Follow
17,068.26 Up 92.02(0.54%) Jul 3

M3 is now 17,449.43 up 8.4% y/y.  with a Parson correlation of 64.687050306201328% M3/DJIA.

Wall of worry! Wall of oil production and now an arm race?  Like WWI and WWII is is the battle of the central bankers! Russia needs to find someone to buy their oil.  It looks like a run on commodities stocks is over done.  Food prices may improve soon. 
Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I never said the market wasn't going to hit 18k, I have maintained that I want to see some kind of resolution out of the East and all that has happened since April is ESCALATION. As we have talked about many times, it's all about managing risk.

If it was only the BIS I would see your point. However, EVERYONE is lowering their GDP forecasts like I said they would have to back in Jan(the stall). Also, all the other socioeconomic and geopolitical problems I talked about over the last couple years have come to fruition. Not to mention, I missed what is going on Eastern Europe, which is worse than I had thought it would be. (Russian Exports ).

Like I kept trying to explain when Putin was pulling plays from Hitler's book, he's no Hitler and what he's doing is destabilizing.. What happens if Ukraine takes back the East and goes for Crimea? Does Putin go for the East with his army after defending Crimea?

64% still leaves 45% of the time to be wrong. We could talk about the wall of worry back in '09-'10 because the world was talking about the end of the world and the biggest economy in the world was turung around(bullish economic trends) Now, there has to be bullish factors to keep driving this margin debt fueled market, since the market is supposed to be an indicator of future growth. Can you point to some bullush economic trends?

Have you factored in what the taper means for M3 in regards to the bond market in your math? Keep in mind that interest rates have been on a downward trajectory since 2000 with an uptick from about 2003-2005. We have talked about it a few times now, all the excess M3 will soak up the debt. Ya know?

As you always say, just some thoughts,

[bimetalaupt]

A++++,
There is a negative correlation of M3 to the interest on the t-30 year bonds of -81.076946687883%. 

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Exactly the ... Once the FED is out of the bond market, M3 will be needed to keep rates low and rates will have to be at least somewhat higher to have the m3 keep rates low. And the bull market in bonds continues for the house.

For the record, from investopedia......

"Definition of 'M3'

A measure of money supply that includes M2 as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements and other larger liquid assets. The M3 measurement includes assets that are less liquid than other components of the money supply, and are more closely related to the finances of larger financial institutions and corporations than to those of businesses and individuals. These types of assets are referred to as “near, near money.”

Investopedia explains 'M3'

The M3 classification is the broadest measure of an economy's money supply. It emphasizes money as a store-of-value more so than money as a medium of exchange – hence the inclusion of less-liquid assets in M3. It is used by economists to estimate the entire money supply within an economy, and by governments to direct policy and control inflation over medium and long-term time periods."

[bimetalaupt]

A++++,
Back to Econ 689: M3 rate is simulor to normal(nominal) interest + inflation expectation.  None M2-M3 is the powerhouse the banks use to fund large long term investments. 

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I hear ya .. Money supply from wiki...

"In contrast, when the central bank is "tightening", it slows the process of private bank issue by selling securities on the open market and pulling money (that could be loaned) out of the private banking sector. By increasing the supply of bonds, this lowers their prices and raises interest rates at the same time that the money supply is reduced.

This kind of policy reduces or increases the supply of short term government debt in the hands of banks and the non-bank public, lowering or raising interest rates. In parallel, it increases or reduces the supply of loanable funds (money) and thereby the ability of private banks to issue new money through issuing debt."

While the FED is holding their UST's, the taper is a form of tightening, even if the news stories say it isnt. From the sounds of it the taper couldn't come quick enough... Bond Anxiety in $1.6 Trillion Repo Market as Failures Soar. AKA, the money supply, particularly large institutions, is in short supply of decent paying bonds. Just like you have been saying for a while now.

Great thoughts !

God bless,

[bimetalaupt]

BOND BULL IS RANGING TODAY OVER RUSSIA...
CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX) -Chicago Options  Follow
2.48 Down 0.06(2.48%) 3:52PM EDT

Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options
3.29 Down 0.06(1.73%) 3:52PM EDT

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt
Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates M1 M2
Thirteen weeks ending July 7, 2014 from thirteen weeks ending:
Apr. 7, 2014 (13 weeks previous)..... 12.3..... 6.5
Jan. 6, 2014 (26 weeks previous)......13.9.......6.7
July 8, 2013 (52 weeks previous).......11.1......6.6

M3 last up 8% y.y so it is running faster then M2 esp NONE M2- M3

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The tinfoil hat rags are going crazy over this plane, eh ? It's truly amazing how well the commie/Islamic propeganda has worked. It's either the US govt is out to destroy and enslave their own people, or they are trying to prop up the dollar by taking down people/govts that oppose them.. The only thing that is profound from these clowns is the state of confusion. I mean it's not like Russian jets shoot down Ukrainian warplane over Ukraine

On topic.... While Iraq burns, Isis takes advantage in Syria, Israel's ground offensive, and of course Eastern Europe's destabilization... All these events will lead a drive to safety aka M3 keeping rates down, what do you think the chance will be that a small rate hike could happen before the taper is done? I mean look at GDP and job creation in the 1914-1919 range and again in the 1940's.

Hope you had a good week. God bless,

[bimetalaupt]

CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX) -Chicago Options
2.45 Down 0.01(0.53%) 12:59PM EDT


Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options  Follow
3.25 Down 0.01(0.15%) 1:00PM EDT

Bonds are up!! ERP is also up!!! close to a buy signal from the very old Expert 50/50 master control system.
KASH IS KING

BiMetalAuPt
Tue dataon real time
ERP 10Y = 5.045042276394460%
Yes you could call it a shallow buy signal but I am keeping my powder dry.