bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 18, 2014 22:32:54 GMT -5
 Talk to me about the Efficient Frontier..changing to more stock or risk assets....If the market is clearly too cheap and money supply on the rise...Why not added futures to the asset mix? other then Value at risk?? A bit more risk then the bet on black; buy and hold "Coffee Can portfolio"
No if the 8.12% return from general risk acceptance of beta of 1.0000 for the return of the market ( 5,000 stocks) because wxyz stock return with dividend reinvest will beat the average mutual fund with risk adjusted comparison. Few if any funds if any will better the the "Coffee Can Portfolio" with 25+ alpha risk assets on the risk adjusted base.. Check out Standard Deviation for Value at risk study!! KASH IS KING
Just a thought, Bruce 
Bonds return was best with bonds 2014 
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 24, 2014 0:03:49 GMT -5
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 24, 2014 0:33:40 GMT -5
A+++ , The unintended ? constancies of QE# is a shortage of quality long term risk free bonds. Retirement funds have been forced into the equity market. We have seen more retirement funds buying futures  Like Russell 2000's etc. Adding risk to retirement funds that are not fully explained. Also DJ Total market is more correlated to m3 then GDP...(pure Stat from MMXV data bank)
Bruce |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 24, 2014 12:08:43 GMT -5
Bruce the  , I agree that the current market has come unglued from GDP. Again, Im not one to take much stock in charts, but the one above is over a long enough time period that it actually shows a long term trend. Since 1971 there have been only 3 times when the market has got this disjointed from economic reality. Each time the economy has kicked the market in the face and returned it to the 70% mean. Look at the 80's on the chart... You mean the Russell that is trading at 81 p/e?? Yes a side effect of low rates without a doubt, but the housing market has recovered now and in certain areas it's almost looking bubbly again. Rates can rise, and all the current cheerleading right now about a continuing of QE because of slower US growth is going to come undone, would be my guess. Like you have said a few times now. Higher rates will slow the bull, and by the looks of it, the economy could neuter it. Minus 34 here this AM, kids are home for one more day. Later, |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 27, 2014 20:34:41 GMT -5
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 27, 2014 22:48:20 GMT -5
Bruce, What happens if I am 10 feet up on a ladder when I have to make a move? I can't run the system efficiently within my current businesses model. Had our friend wanted to invest some capital in his elevator I would have had a computer at work. If i do just work at home for a couple years I'm not wiling to leverage when I will need the cash at some point for a down payment on a house when they become even more affordable up here. Nothing like hearing about the leftover stock from last year... I was reading a story the other day about how China's debt problem is different because it's not owed internationally, it's mostly just internal... Umm isn't that a definition of a black hole  Take care, |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 28, 2014 9:05:04 GMT -5
ADDENDUM: EST. RETURN ON BETA 0.54 IS 7.014569753% PER MMXV- EXPERT 63/37. |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Mar 31, 2014 13:41:53 GMT -5
Long term bonds were up 6.9% for Q1 2014!! 
Kash is King... but Bonds were hot in 2014-Q1
Rebalanced two time! again now working with 63% Stock and 37% bonds and KASH!
Added more DUK, IBM and JNJ.
Now we will see what M3 growth of 8.3% will do to the Value of the total Market(Stock and Bonds). Remember bond market is 3 times larger then Stock.
BiMetalAuPt |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 31, 2014 18:01:55 GMT -5
B, I think you mean, now let's see how long it takes before the crisis in the east is full blown, non? The global economy might support stocks at 125% of US GDP, but.... As you say, just a thought, |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Apr 1, 2014 3:21:26 GMT -5
B, I think you mean, now let's see how long it takes before the crisis in the east is full blown, non? The global economy might support stocks at 125% of US GDP, but.... As you say, just a thought, A+++, I was using M3 for the vector. GDP!!! I did not see the correlation  . Me Bad 
B-
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 1, 2014 9:12:42 GMT -5
B, I think you mean, now let's see how long it takes before the crisis in the east is full blown, non? The global economy might support stocks at 125% of US GDP, but.... As you say, just a thought, A+++, I was using M3 for the vector. GDP!!! I did not see the correlation . Me Bad
B-
B, I made a boo-boo on the other thread too, MMXV has a better idea of what Mrs.Y than anyone! It's the illogical that stupms our buddy. AKA as long as it takes a year or so to play out, we will hit 18k, I have no doubt about that.  Have a great day , |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Apr 1, 2014 10:38:51 GMT -5
A+++,
Make that Mrs.A, Apologies to George. Who else won the "Nobel Price" for writing about stealing your way to wealth. Hitler must have been Putin's model. Talking about stealing your way to wealth; could we talk about "High Frequency Trading". Make the Billions by gamming the system like borrowing on your INC to the max and going chapter 11. Keep the cash. Yes, this could be irrelevant to the big picture but George A. won $500,000 for the Idea and a Jewish wife from Brooklyn.  Just a thought, B-
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 1, 2014 12:53:32 GMT -5
That's enough B- out of you! George and Janet are brilliant economists, and they understand trickle down in the true sense of the world, without a doubt... Good, smart people and yes they get extra points for being Jewish... Without a doubt Putin sees the west like Hitler did...  Hifreq trading, bash that crap all you want. Just another wizard trick for the short term money grab for sure.. Stock is valued on companies that produce, long term companies have always beat the wizardry. That's why even though the market is "rigged", it's still one of the best performing asset classes there has been over the long term. Great points, AS ALWAYS!!! |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Apr 7, 2014 22:27:51 GMT -5
A+++, What : we are looking at the early 1940's..Bonds!! were Hot and interest decreased as the Federal Reserve supported the long end of the curve. 10 year Notes produced an directive to return to 50/50. What is down is up: then what is up must be down!  Just a  BiMetalAuPt
CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-No (^TNX) -Chicago Options
2.70 Down 0.03(1.14%) 2:59PM EDT
Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options
3.56 Down 0.03(0.75%) 2:59PM EDT |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 7, 2014 22:54:35 GMT -5
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Apr 10, 2014 13:18:51 GMT -5
Bruce, I think you might have your answer then! Not the one for the billion worms, but really, it's a 50/50 kind of situation. I'm still thinking we are looking for the end of 2015, which would mean 80/20... But the reality is these guyz be playing with fire!  A+++, Just as soon as you think the Expert 50/50 is 100% wrong......Today the Stock Market has no buyers!! Reduce the selling pressure...50/50 so I am not selling bonds today. Billion Worms can not all be wrong!! Think long term and buy when everyone else is selling..ME WRONG; Keeping my powder dry? BiMetalAuPt
CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-No (^TNX) -Chicago Options
2.63 Down 0.05(1.94%) 1:55PM EDT
Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options
3.52 Down 0.05(1.32%) 1:59PM EDT
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 10, 2014 21:03:48 GMT -5
Bruce, I hear ya! Although, you were talking about 80/20 come the June-July season. Yes, this is exactly why I have been keeping my powder dry. Zero confidence in a diplomatic resolution here. What split is that? At this point I, and many others have done well around here. I'm in no hurry to invest as I have a long term in front of me. I'm willing to miss some gains on my pile if I'm wrong about the major short term issues in front of us. Am I crazy? Well more than usual that is? God bless, |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Apr 10, 2014 21:39:53 GMT -5
Bruce, I hear ya! Although, you were talking about 80/20 come the June-July season. Yes, this is exactly why I have been keeping my powder dry. Zero confidence in a diplomatic resolution here. What split is that? At this point I, and many others have done well around here. I'm in no hurry to invest as I have a long term in front of me. I'm willing to miss some gains on my pile if I'm wrong about the major short term issues in front of us. Am I crazy? Well more than usual that is? God bless, A+++, 80/20 with 50% obverting with KASH? Who Knows: EXPERT 50/50 looked better this AM then last night. BiMetalAuPt  PS: Scotch Whiskey Futures doing very well: almost as well as my Texas and French red wine collection. 
Marc Faber says the stock market is setting up for a decline more painful than the sudden crash of 1987.
"I think it's very likely that we're seeing, in the next 12 months, an '87-type of crash," Faber said with a devious chuckle on Thursday's episode of "Futures Now." "And I suspect it will be even worse."
Read More › Miller: It's all going up
Faber, the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, has recently called for growth stocks to decline. And he says the pain in the Internet and biotech sectors is just getting started
"I think there are some groups of stocks that are highly vulnerable because they're in cuckoo land in terms of valuations," Faber said. "They have no earnings. They're valued at price-to-sales. And this is not a good metric in the long run."
To be sure, there are prominent investors that disagree with Faber, among them legendary stockpicker Bill Miller, who said this week that conditions for a bad market simply don't exist.
obverting!verb (used with object) 1. to turn (something) so as to show a different surface
World English Dictionary
obvert (ɒbˈvɜːt)
— vb
1. logic to deduce the obverse of (a proposition)
2. rare to turn so as to show the main or other side
[C17: from Latin obvertere to turn towards; see obverse ]
ob'version
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 10, 2014 21:52:17 GMT -5
Bruce, I hear ya! Although, you were talking about 80/20 come the June-July season. Yes, this is exactly why I have been keeping my powder dry. Zero confidence in a diplomatic resolution here. What split is that? At this point I, and many others have done well around here. I'm in no hurry to invest as I have a long term in front of me. I'm willing to miss some gains on my pile if I'm wrong about the major short term issues in front of us. Am I crazy? Well more than usual that is? God bless, A+++, 80/20 with 50% obverting with KASH? Who Knows: EXPERT 50/50 looked better this AM then last night. BiMetalAuPt PS: Scotch Whiskey Futures doing very well: almost as well as my Texas and French red wine collection. Marc Faber says the stock market is setting up for a decline more painful than the sudden crash of 1987.
"I think it's very likely that we're seeing, in the next 12 months, an '87-type of crash," Faber said with a devious chuckle on Thursday's episode of "Futures Now." "And I suspect it will be even worse."
Read More › Miller: It's all going up
Faber, the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, has recently called for growth stocks to decline. And he says the pain in the Internet and biotech sectors is just getting started
"I think there are some groups of stocks that are highly vulnerable because they're in cuckoo land in terms of valuations," Faber said. "They have no earnings. They're valued at price-to-sales. And this is not a good metric in the long run."
To be sure, there are prominent investors that disagree with Faber, among them legendary stockpicker Bill Miller, who said this week that conditions for a bad market simply don't exist.
B, 80\20 cash with 50 cash, classic.. Faber has been calling for a crash as long as some others around here have.. Broken clock, with nothing of real substance to back it up except, the super milker is a Federal Reserve scam. If these guys had a clue they would have been talking about the things we talk about, when we have been talking about them. They still, still haven't even come close to laying out a real scenario.. JMO That said, a broken clock is right twice a day and the eastern part of the world does not look healthy at this point, at all.. As you say, just a thought, [/quote] |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Apr 11, 2014 8:57:22 GMT -5
Bonds rocking today!! CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-No (^TNX) -Chicago Options
2.61 Down 0.2(0.54%) 9:32AM EDT Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options Follow
3.49 Down 0.02(0.49%) 9:40AM EDT
remember lower interest means bonds are up: Again
BiMetalAuPt
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 17, 2014 12:13:21 GMT -5
A+++, What : we are looking at the early 1940's..Bonds!! were Hot and interest decreased as the Federal Reserve supported the long end of the curve. 10 year Notes produced an directive to return to 50/50. What is down is up: then what is up must be down! Just a BiMetalAuPt
CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-No (^TNX) -Chicago Options
2.70 Down 0.03(1.14%) 2:59PM EDT
Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options
3.56 Down 0.03(0.75%) 2:59PM EDT B, There we have it... I read this last night but I wanted to make sure before I posted it. Many confirmed reports show more echo's of the 1940's Jews ordered to register in east UkraineGod Bless, A+++ |
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tyfighter3
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Post by tyfighter3 on Apr 21, 2014 23:45:10 GMT -5
I think part of the NASDAQ, DOW, S@P is getting frothy and ready to come back in price some more from where it was. I don't think that the Market in whole will go down with them( I hope not). There are Sectors that are not high price and the Fundalmentels are still intack. The old saying (Go away in May) may really be in play this year. Should be some really good hunting come july and august. JMO |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 22, 2014 0:05:06 GMT -5
A stock pickers market? That's your bag for sure Ty. |
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tyfighter3
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Post by tyfighter3 on Apr 22, 2014 0:19:40 GMT -5
It's always a stock pickers market AHB and a Fundalmentels Market because when markets go down, its; the stocks that have good fundalmentals that will come back first. But we all know there's Stock Pickers and then ther's Stock Pickers. That's what makes a Market Fun. LOL
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 22, 2014 0:31:32 GMT -5
Lol..touche...(AMD has been on a tear since there last earnings call) On the fundamental side of things, the world economy will support stocks at this level. If that really goes to pot here the entire market will go down with it, I'm sure. But then, oil and gas will break out because we will be shipping it like crazy. Manufacturing firms will explode to the upside... I know I don't have to tell you this but there is always an opportunity.. Lol..
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tyfighter3
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Post by tyfighter3 on Apr 22, 2014 0:55:55 GMT -5
OHHHH, AMD, lets see, PE is 82x, stock price under 5. What kind of growth does it have? AHB, show me the BEEF. lol
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dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Apr 22, 2014 6:12:41 GMT -5
Greetings, Aham and Ty...
Always good to see the banter!
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dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Apr 22, 2014 6:18:04 GMT -5
April 22, 2014
Strength Seen in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Stock Soars 11.7%
Zacks By Zacks Equity Research
4 hours ago
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) was a big mover last session, as the company saw its shares rise over 11% on the day. The move came on solid volume too with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session. This breaks the recent trend of the company, as the stock is now trading above the volatile price range of $3.65 to $4.70 in the past one-month time frame.
Over the past 30 days, the company has seen no estimate revision, while its Zacks Consensus Estimate moved lower, suggesting trouble down the road. So make sure to keep an eye on this stock going forward to see if this recent move higher can last.
My first computer was an AMD ... Had less problems than with my Dells.
HAPPY TUESDAY GUYS!
b
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 22, 2014 15:49:35 GMT -5
OHHHH, AMD, lets see, PE is 82x, stock price under 5. What kind of growth does it have? AHB, show me the BEEF. lol Lol. BEEF! They have all the chips for this generation of video game console, should be about 200-300 million chips there. They have started to focus on areas where Intel and others aren't, like microservers. Their newer chips are some of most advance graphic chips out there(auto CAD) They have also started to target the lower end market(high performance good price) They have also have some new enterprise clients(rockets in India). The biggest factor by far though is that home console market. That chip will be the same one 3-5 years from now, and I know you know how the cost of manufacturing goes down. All that said, over the next 2 quarters their earnings will tell it all. Have they diversified far enough away from the PC market to stabilize profit? Time will tell if it's a true turn around. Like dot said though, AMD makes a stable chip. |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Apr 24, 2014 2:40:53 GMT -5
Winter was to say the least the leading delta change. M1 is producing little results for the huge increase in this independent vector. The current correlation of M1 to GDP according to Richard Fisher from Dallas FRB has evaporated.
Current action with GDP is not correlated to M1: IE V1 has been in decline. ROC IS NEGITIVE.
JUST A THOUGH , BiMetalAuPt |
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