bimetalaupt
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Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
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Post by bimetalaupt on Dec 19, 2013 21:33:30 GMT -5
YES...I KNOW MY NUMBER WERE REPORTED BACKWARDS...MMXIV-BETA 5 QUARTER PROJECTION FROM 10/22/2012 FOR 1/1/2014 DJIA 16792.48 DJTM 18525.50 GOLD 1164.47 QQQ 79.126 BLACK SWAN EVENTS....68.06% = "OBAMACARE"  OK PROJECTIONS WERE BETTER(closer) THEN EXPECTED. BiMetalAuPt  |
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bimetalaupt
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
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Post by bimetalaupt on Dec 31, 2013 23:18:04 GMT -5
^DJI 16,576.66 +72.37 (+0.44%) Projection...DJIA 16792.48 Must be Obama Care.. M2= 11,050.6 up 6.3% y/y vs 7.5% last year from 12/26/2011.. QE3 did not increase growth of M2..Negative Delta -1.2%... Where did the 2 Trillion USD go ??
BiMetalAuPt
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jan 1, 2014 1:01:14 GMT -5
BiMtl, Are you sure you can't find one that projected the exact number? The projected numbers tend to move around a bit… Remember how crazy it was in 2012 to think Dow 16k was on the way? Something has to be working, no? I mean nothing is perfect, go back to 2010 and tell everyone that the RE market would bottom in 2011 and by the end of 2013 a big chunk of the crisis would be under control. They would call you crazy, and I have the thread to prove it!  Happy New Year!!!   God bless you and yours,  |
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bimetalaupt
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Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 1, 2014 15:03:06 GMT -5
BiMtl, Are you sure you can't find one that projected the exact number? The projected numbers tend to move around a bit… Remember how crazy it was in 2012 to think Dow 16k was on the way? Something has to be working, no? I mean nothing is perfect, go back to 2010 and tell everyone that the RE market would bottom in 2011 and by the end of 2013 a big chunk of the crisis would be under control. They would call you crazy, and I have the thread to prove it! Happy New Year!!! God bless you and yours, A+++, Yes MMXV is very dynamic..Depend on M2,,one week,, not corrected.... Few would have thought M2 growth was declining with all the talk of how large QE3 was.... Happy New Year God Bless you and yours!! BiMetalAuPt aka King of the Kitchen |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jan 2, 2014 19:49:35 GMT -5
KotK , I was thinking more along the lines of the wide variation of numbers that your math model can produce. Week to week fluctuations are maybe explained by the black swan factor, that's where the 2 trillion went? M2 is misunderstood because of the type of crisis and slow and steady recovery we have had. This far along and overall home sales stood at 42% all cash deals. Kind stops M2 in it tracks when almost half of all home purchases in the country inlovlve zero leverage, eh? Been a good year so far, hope the server is going well. God bless you and yours as well, A++++ |
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bimetalaupt
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Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
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Post by bimetalaupt on Mar 25, 2014 11:42:22 GMT -5
A++++, Again, M3 is expanding with the increase in 30 year Tbond. Now M3 > $17 Trillion. or up almost 8% year over year. What effect should this have? Watch DJ Total Market Index rise 8% by 12/31/2014. 90% correlation from 2010-2014!!
Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 25, 2014 12:56:59 GMT -5
 , I hear ya and I agree with ya. Look how Putin and the Kremlin are playing the market! They can buy low and sell high because they are creating the market swings. I'm sticking to my models of the end of 2015. Of course we have to watch the swans, but nothing happens over night and the current situations have been building since mid 2012. As a side note, I like how so many think that jihadists are nothing but a bunch of cave dwellers... www.deepcapture.comI mean, how hard would it be for the Chinese martyr brigade to pay off an emotional guy? Especially when he sees the Chinese martyr brigades enemies as his own. It not like they have taken credit for anything recently that was played down as a hoax by a bunch of liars.. The world economy seems to be hitting that stall we were talking about at the start of the year, but on the bright side it' onward and upward for the US economy, regardless of what happens with the markets over the short term here(4-7 years) Have a good day, busy here. God bless,
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bimetalaupt
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Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 30, 2014 19:05:59 GMT -5
DI, After all you have to make a few more details about a circle being a perfect hedge.. The analysis I have told me the Bar Bell with asset on or exciting one Standard deviation away from the centre point is a good hedge..We have to work with devastations and that is where the negative correlation on the left side of risk is so valuable. I played this theory for 6 hours of graduate work and got my MBA with Thesis in high risk investing and risk mediation . Risk is a four letter word.. So if you have stock on one side.. say $5 million dollars worth of four high beta stocks ( average beta of 3) and bonds on the other side with a negative Correlation of -50% you would need 80% bonds and 20% stock to reduce your risk to almost zero... or a perfect Bar Bell of 80% bonds and 20% stocks.. Return would be about 7 % with low risk... How does this compare to the circle.. like the circle of 5ths Welcome back my old friend, Coffee at the 21 Bruce We have reworked the high risk Expert 50/50 to be Expert 63/37 with high beta and Puts vs TLT!! returns are now looking to be 15%. Thoughts? |
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bimetalaupt
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
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Post by bimetalaupt on May 20, 2015 19:14:40 GMT -5
WITH THE INCREASE IN TOTAL RELEVENT RISK : WE ARE RETURNING TO THE CORE EXPERT 50/50 SYSTEM...ALSO WE HAVE INCREAASE THE DEFENCE HOLDING AND -star-ELIMINATED HIGH BETA HIGHER RISK FIRMS.
Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt
MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 05/20/15
RIDK..........................................................6134.6925
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION...................... 22590.3758054116
UPSIDE.................................................... 4304.97580541159
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK........................................ 70.1742720668%
djia risk/return.............................................. 1.4250236882373
Highest risk DJIA....................................... 16455.6833054116
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00..................................... -$0.29826
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