Amazon Prime Air Could Deliver In 30 Minutes- Via Drone

[djAdvocate]

Dec 2, 2013 15:59:53 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Dec 2, 2013 14:43:14 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

no.  i am not.  i hate it.  but i am a private pilot.  so i don't want a bunch of bozo's cluttering up my airspace with sex toys and dvd's.

Drones will likely have routes well below the flight paths of airplanes. 

controlled airspace goes to ground level around airports, which are numerous in urban areas like Chicago, NY, NJ, and SF.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 2, 2013 22:22:17 GMT -5 AGB said:

Dec 2, 2013 14:43:14 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

no.  i am not.  i hate it.  but i am a private pilot.  so i don't want a bunch of bozo's cluttering up my airspace with sex toys and dvd's.

You have your priorities, I have mine... no need for name calling...

i am treating this as a joke unless you tell me it isn't.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 3, 2013 1:01:55 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 2, 2013 15:59:53 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Drones will likely have routes well below the flight paths of airplanes. 

controlled airspace goes to ground level around airports, which are numerous in urban areas like Chicago, NY, NJ, and SF.

Fair enough point- I guess the service will have some practical limitations.  But I'm absolutely serious that pilotless aircraft may have priority at some point, and I can actually see a day when pilots flying will be severely restricted, if not outright banned in some areas.  Did you take a look at that link to the TED Talk, "Robots that fly and cooperate"?  Do you follow this technology much?  I'm highly involved with the insurance application of drones / robots- particularly for underwriters.  

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 2, 2013 16:10:02 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Dec 2, 2013 15:59:53 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

When I heard about the train crash over the weekend, I thought again: WHY is a PERSON still driving the train?

Train crashes are nearly always caused by mechanical failures, track failures, or track scheduling errors. The first two are unpredictable. The third is already handled by computers and supervised by human operators. The crashes occur when the human supervisors don't do their jobs.

This wasn't a scheduling error- the train was traveling 82 mph in a 30 mph zone, and the black box shows the brakes were not fully engaged.  It could have been a track failure contributed to the crash, but the primary cause was the train traveling nearly 300% of the speed limit.  It could well be a mechanical failure- I hope for the engineer / driver's sake it was.  He reports that he attempted to apply the brakes and they did not engage, so that tells me that he is responsible for the operation of the train. 

My overall point is that a train shouldn't have a human operator.  Humans should still be involved as technicians, and for safety and security purposes.  Other than that, people really shouldn't be doing much.

I know the quote isn't about trains, but the principle applies to- everything- if you ask me:

"The factory of the future will have two employees: a man, and a dog; the man will be there to feed the dog, and the dog will be there to keep the man from touching any of the equipment." - Warren G. Bennis

[AGB]

Dec 3, 2013 1:03:26 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am treating this as a joke unless you tell me it isn't.

It was, or at least it was meant to be one. There may have been wine involved...

[billisonboard]

Dec 3, 2013 8:42:10 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

... But I'm absolutely serious that pilotless aircraft may have priority at some point, and I can actually see a day when pilots flying will be severely restricted, if not outright banned in some areas. ...

Dec 2, 2013 11:01:41 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

... Government is either going to be unbearably tyrannical, or irrelevant in the future- ...

Would these be a good example of government being "unbearably tyrannical"?

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 3, 2013 8:55:11 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Dec 2, 2013 16:10:02 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Train crashes are nearly always caused by mechanical failures, track failures, or track scheduling errors. The first two are unpredictable. The third is already handled by computers and supervised by human operators. The crashes occur when the human supervisors don't do their jobs.

This wasn't a scheduling error- the train was traveling 82 mph in a 30 mph zone, and the black box shows the brakes were not fully engaged.  It could have been a track failure contributed to the crash, but the primary cause was the train traveling nearly 300% of the speed limit.  It could well be a mechanical failure- I hope for the engineer / driver's sake it was.  He reports that he attempted to apply the brakes and they did not engage, so that tells me that he is responsible for the operation of the train. 

My overall point is that a train shouldn't have a human operator.  Humans should still be involved as technicians, and for safety and security purposes.  Other than that, people really shouldn't be doing much.

I know the quote isn't about trains, but the principle applies to- everything- if you ask me:

"The factory of the future will have two employees: a man, and a dog; the man will be there to feed the dog, and the dog will be there to keep the man from touching any of the equipment." - Warren G. Bennis

A very distant future, for better or for worse. If you've ever worked with quadrotor copters, they're incredible fragile, finicky, and require a lot of maintenance.

As for trains, all the operator has to do is govern the speed of the train and react to unforeseeable situations. Aside from that, the train practically does run itself. There's a reason the expression is "a runaway train".

You could install a location-sensitive speed governor, but transport companies would hate it because trains could never speed under any circumstances to make up time. You could turn over speed control fully to a computer, but it would need to come equipped with sensors for track obstructions, weather, etc., all of which have problems with cost, reliability, and false alarms, and the improvement in performance over a human operator simply looking ahead would either be marginal or (more likely) nonexistent.

Besides that, the rail companies keep close track of where trains are at all times and how fast they're traveling. If this train was barreling through a stretch at 3 times the speed limit, it was either due to mechanical failure or because the rail company is perfectly happy with train conductors rushing their goods across country above the posted limits. Building in more computers is never going to change the fact that speed (meaning: profits) and safety are always at a head in some businesses.

[jkapp]

Dec 2, 2013 10:56:11 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

Dec 2, 2013 10:53:44 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

What totally excites me is drones moving people. It's just a matter of making it large enough. But imagine hopping in, and being transported using automated technology and GPS coordinates? No planes or airports, no cars or highways. This is the Jetson's baby. It's gonna happen!

and the governent will be looking in your window with it.

Well, then bend over and give them a good view

[Deleted]

Dec 3, 2013 15:57:41 GMT -5 jkapp said:

Dec 2, 2013 10:56:11 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

and the governent will be looking in your window with it.

Well, then bend over and give them a good view

That is what I tell my wife when I am changing in front of the window and she is yelling at me that I am mooning the neighborhood.  If they want to peep I'll give them a good show.

[jkapp]

Dec 2, 2013 10:47:11 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Jeff Bezos tells 60 Minutes (which I watch, because I guess I'm 106 years old trapped in a 40 something body) that service will be ready for launch within five years...

I LOVE, LOVE, LOVE thinking about the world that's almost here- it's totally fascinating, totally AMAZING to me.  And the changes are coming fast.  Life is gonna get better (if we let it).

I saw that video on the news the other day...to me, they look a little flimsy.  If they're deliverying on a windy day, I could see a bunch of these things cartwheeling through the sky before crashing into the nearest tree

It's an interesting idea, though, if they can make the drones a little beefier to handle inclement weather.

[Sum Dum Gai]

The problem with inclement weather will be getting a soaked iPhone 14.

[Virgil Showlion]

You know where I could really see the drone delivery business taking off: for drones.

Just think, you go to a website that sells quadrotor copters, order one, and it flies itself straight to your doorstep, swearing fealty to your remote control (rather than the manufacturer's) the moment it sets down.

Think of it an unusual interpretation of McLuhan's thesis that "the medium is the message".

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 3, 2013 16:00:05 GMT -5 jkapp said:

Dec 2, 2013 10:47:11 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Jeff Bezos tells 60 Minutes (which I watch, because I guess I'm 106 years old trapped in a 40 something body) that service will be ready for launch within five years...

I LOVE, LOVE, LOVE thinking about the world that's almost here- it's totally fascinating, totally AMAZING to me.  And the changes are coming fast.  Life is gonna get better (if we let it).

I saw that video on the news the other day...to me, they look a little flimsy.  If they're deliverying on a windy day, I could see a bunch of these things cartwheeling through the sky before crashing into the nearest tree

It's an interesting idea, though, if they can make the drones a little beefier to handle inclement weather.

I set a drone to hover at GPS coordinates on a very windy day in Long Island and it did just fine.  I was stunned.  We're using them with high def cameras and other equipment to inspect roofs.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

There was drizzle / flurries that day as well.

[Deleted]

"A very distant future, for better or for worse. If you've ever worked with quadrotor copters, they're incredible fragile, finicky, and require a lot of maintenance."

 Plus they have a very limited payload and a limited range...  Drone quadrotors in general use as cargo delivery vehicles is a fantasy, like flying cars a la George Jetson. 
 Of course, to a generation that grew up with the notion that the world is a realm of toys directed by joysticks... no fantasy is too extreme.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 3, 2013 16:31:06 GMT -5 Sum Dum Gai said:

The problem with inclement weather will be getting a soaked iPhone 14.

Funny, that's not a problem for the Samsung S4.  But the package isn't going to be exposed to the elements anymore than it would be coming on a truck.  Actually, maybe less.  That container looks to be a polymer of some kind.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 3, 2013 10:07:23 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 3, 2013 8:42:10 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

... But I'm absolutely serious that pilotless aircraft may have priority at some point, and I can actually see a day when pilots flying will be severely restricted, if not outright banned in some areas. ...

Dec 2, 2013 11:01:41 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

... Government is either going to be unbearably tyrannical, or irrelevant in the future- ...

Would these be a good example of government being "unbearably tyrannical"?

If you accept that government ought to regulate airspace, no.  For the purposes of this post, I wasn't assuming my free market ideal where private parties could reach mutually beneficial agreements.  I'm assuming the same top-down, one-size-fits-all, government regulation of airspace through the FAA.  But hey- you bring up a point, maybe I could be more hopeful?

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 3, 2013 16:38:07 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

I set a drone to hover at GPS coordinates on a very windy day in Long Island and it did just fine.  I was stunned.  We're using them with high def cameras and other equipment to inspect roofs.

Now see... that, to me, is a good use for quadrotors. Get a flying instrument to survey inaccessible places.

Flying tiny payloads over huge distances for a marginal improvement in delivery time, not so much.

[billisonboard]

Dec 3, 2013 8:42:10 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

... But I'm absolutely serious that pilotless aircraft may have priority at some point, and I can actually see a day when pilots flying will be severely restricted, if not outright banned in some areas. ...

Dec 3, 2013 16:43:41 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

...  For the purposes of this post, I wasn't assuming my free market ideal where private parties could reach mutually beneficial agreements. ...

I think in your first post above that you are stating a reality of modern life and presenting clear evidence of why your ideal in the second post is unworkable.

[Sum Dum Gai]

I agree with Virgil on this. We'll see drones doing survey work, disaster coordination and whatnot long before we'll see them used to provide shipping for consumer goods. I order steel framed go cart things from New Zealand and the shipping is $20 per carton which holds four of them. That's tough for a drone to compete with price wise.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 3, 2013 8:42:10 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Dec 3, 2013 1:01:55 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

controlled airspace goes to ground level around airports, which are numerous in urban areas like Chicago, NY, NJ, and SF.

Fair enough point- I guess the service will have some practical limitations.  But I'm absolutely serious that pilotless aircraft may have priority at some point, and I can actually see a day when pilots flying will be severely restricted, if not outright banned in some areas.  Did you take a look at that link to the TED Talk, "Robots that fly and cooperate"?  Do you follow this technology much?  I'm highly involved with the insurance application of drones / robots- particularly for underwriters.  

[Artemis Windsong]

Dear Santa:

I would like my present wrapped in firey red paper to be delivered by a drone.

Thank you,

The Ice Queen 

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 3, 2013 17:22:52 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Dec 3, 2013 16:38:07 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

I set a drone to hover at GPS coordinates on a very windy day in Long Island and it did just fine.  I was stunned.  We're using them with high def cameras and other equipment to inspect roofs.

Now see... that, to me, is a good use for quadrotors. Get a flying instrument to survey inaccessible places.

Flying tiny payloads over huge distances for a marginal improvement in delivery time, not so much.

Well, again- flying tiny payloads over huge distances for a marginal improvement in delivery time is a proven business model.  Nobody thought much of it when Fred Smith first started FedEx.  

You know, back when there were textbooks. 

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 3, 2013 23:11:53 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Dec 3, 2013 17:22:52 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Now see... that, to me, is a good use for quadrotors. Get a flying instrument to survey inaccessible places.

Flying tiny payloads over huge distances for a marginal improvement in delivery time, not so much.

Well, again- flying tiny payloads over huge distances for a marginal improvement in delivery time is a proven business model.  Nobody thought much of it when Fred Smith first started FedEx.  

You know, back when there were textbooks. 

Sure, and how do you think his business would've done if he could only deliver goods lighter than 10 lbs that could fit in a 6" x 6" x 12" box, less than 4 km away from a dispatch point, for a $30.00 delivery surcharge?

[EVT1]

I wouldn't call FedEx flying packages a 'marginal improvement' in delivery time.

Also before you boot the pilots and engineers out of the chair you need to spend at least another 50 years fixing the unreliable crap that I predict will only get more unreliable down the road as complexity increases.  Sure- there is room for certain systems- akin to ABS, stability control, accident anticipation/response, etc. but you go 100% digital shit is going to crash- the system and the craft.  You can program all of the possible scenarios you want but when a major problem happens there will be no replacement for a human.

Call my a luddite but I am not a fan at all of fly by wire unless there is a mechanical backup- and I don't care how many redundant systems are employed.  We have already had crashes due to these systems operating normally- no telling what happens when a major mechanical failure takes out wiring.  Granted it should be a small number- but no thanks- I'll take the flight with the guy who still has a live stick.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 3, 2013 23:21:45 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Dec 3, 2013 23:11:53 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Well, again- flying tiny payloads over huge distances for a marginal improvement in delivery time is a proven business model.  Nobody thought much of it when Fred Smith first started FedEx.  

You know, back when there were textbooks. 

Sure, and how do you think his business would've done if he could only deliver goods lighter than 10 lbs that could fit in a 6" x 6" x 12" box, less than 4 km away from a dispatch point, for a $30.00 delivery surcharge?

Depends on the real or perceived need for the speedy delivery.  How many years did it take the US Postal Service to offer overnight delivery? (And I think they still can't manage to actually GUARANTEE next day, let alone by 10:00 a.m.).  They're the joke.  FedEx is not.  

I'm not sure what drone delivery will look like, or what you could possibly need to pay an additional $30 surcharge for rather than wait a day or two-- but it'll happen.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 3, 2013 23:51:47 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

I wouldn't call FedEx flying packages a 'marginal improvement' in delivery time.

Also before you boot the pilots and engineers out of the chair you need to spend at least another 50 years fixing the unreliable crap that I predict will only get more unreliable down the road as complexity increases.  Sure- there is room for certain systems- akin to ABS, stability control, accident anticipation/response, etc. but you go 100% digital shit is going to crash- the system and the craft.  You can program all of the possible scenarios you want but when a major problem happens there will be no replacement for a human.

Call my a luddite but I am not a fan at all of fly by wire unless there is a mechanical backup- and I don't care how many redundant systems are employed.  We have already had crashes due to these systems operating normally- no telling what happens when a major mechanical failure takes out wiring.  Granted it should be a small number- but no thanks- I'll take the flight with the guy who still has a live stick.

That's all well and good, but overwhelmingly when a major problem happens- the major problem IS a human.

Live stick:

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

www.cnn.com/2012/09/25/tech/innovation/self-driving-car-california/

(CNN) -- California is the latest state to allow testing of Google's self-driving cars on the roads, though only with a human passenger along as a safety measure.
Gov. Edmund "Jerry" Brown signed the autonomous-vehicles bill into law Tuesday afternoon alongside Google co-founder Sergey Brin and State Sen. Alex Padilla, who authored the bill, at Google's headquarters in Mountain View, California. The bill, SB 1298, will set up procedures and requirements for determining when the cars are road-ready.

Brin hopes that self-driving cars will be able to drive on public streets in five years or less.
You won't need a driver's license by 2040

[EVT1]

Dec 3, 2013 23:56:05 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Dec 3, 2013 23:51:47 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

I wouldn't call FedEx flying packages a 'marginal improvement' in delivery time.

Also before you boot the pilots and engineers out of the chair you need to spend at least another 50 years fixing the unreliable crap that I predict will only get more unreliable down the road as complexity increases.  Sure- there is room for certain systems- akin to ABS, stability control, accident anticipation/response, etc. but you go 100% digital shit is going to crash- the system and the craft.  You can program all of the possible scenarios you want but when a major problem happens there will be no replacement for a human.

Call my a luddite but I am not a fan at all of fly by wire unless there is a mechanical backup- and I don't care how many redundant systems are employed.  We have already had crashes due to these systems operating normally- no telling what happens when a major mechanical failure takes out wiring.  Granted it should be a small number- but no thanks- I'll take the flight with the guy who still has a live stick.

That's all well and good, but overwhelmingly when a major problem happens- the major problem IS a human.

Live stick:

You have a valid point- human error is a large part of the problem- statistics prove that- but what is not in the numbers are the times where human intervention has overcome mechanical failures and there was no crash.  Not sure if HAL is able to do that yet- doubt it can land a plane in the Hudson or in a case like Sioux City where the hydraulics were severed, figure out a way to fly a crippled craft that was not on the books.

Maybe you are more trusting than I am- but I just couldn't board a flight without a pilot- no problem allowing one to deliver a pizza though.   Domino's drones- now that's a neat idea- just lands in your front yard with a food box. Who needs to pay a driver? Or better- who would tip a drone?

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 4, 2013 0:17:02 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Dec 3, 2013 23:56:05 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

That's all well and good, but overwhelmingly when a major problem happens- the major problem IS a human.

Live stick:

You have a valid point- human error is a large part of the problem- statistics prove that- but what is not in the numbers are the times where human intervention has overcome mechanical failures and there was no crash.  Not sure if HAL is able to do that yet- doubt it can land a plane in the Hudson or in a case like Sioux City where the hydraulics were severed, figure out a way to fly a crippled craft that was not on the books.

Maybe you are more trusting than I am- but I just couldn't board a flight without a pilot- no problem allowing one to deliver a pizza though.   Domino's drones- now that's a neat idea- just lands in your front yard with a food box. Who needs to pay a driver? Or better- who would tip a drone?

I'm sorry- I passed out. Did you say something?