Amazon Prime Air Could Deliver In 30 Minutes- Via Drone

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Jeff Bezos tells 60 Minutes (which I watch, because I guess I'm 106 years old trapped in a 40 something body) that service will be ready for launch within five years...

I LOVE, LOVE, LOVE thinking about the world that's almost here- it's totally fascinating, totally AMAZING to me.  And the changes are coming fast.  Life is gonna get better (if we let it).

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

What totally excites me is drones moving people. It's just a matter of making it large enough. But imagine hopping in, and being transported using automated technology and GPS coordinates? No planes or airports, no cars or highways. This is the Jetson's baby. It's gonna happen!

[Deleted]

Dec 2, 2013 10:53:44 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

What totally excites me is drones moving people. It's just a matter of making it large enough. But imagine hopping in, and being transported using automated technology and GPS coordinates? No planes or airports, no cars or highways. This is the Jetson's baby. It's gonna happen!

and the governent will be looking in your window with it.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 2, 2013 10:56:11 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

Dec 2, 2013 10:53:44 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

What totally excites me is drones moving people. It's just a matter of making it large enough. But imagine hopping in, and being transported using automated technology and GPS coordinates? No planes or airports, no cars or highways. This is the Jetson's baby. It's gonna happen!

and the governent will be looking in your window with it.

Government is either going to be unbearably tyrannical, or irrelevant in the future- assuming the latter- I wouldn't sweat it.

[billisonboard]

Drone parts keep falling on my head.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 2, 2013 11:03:43 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Drone parts keep falling on my head.

There will definitely be kinks to work out- the most painfully obvious problem with Amazon Prime Air is going to be dealing with criminals who will range from opportunists who will shoot down drones, and steal the items, to more sophisticated operations that will figure out how to intercept or even hack the drones.  

[djAdvocate]

i hate this idea.  having all of this buzzing shit flying around is insane.

[Sum Dum Gai]

Anytime technology is 5 years out that's code for it might happen in your lifetime.. if you're young.

[Virgil Showlion]

The "problem" is that current package delivery is efficient and more than adequate for nearly all situations. You either want something you can buy in your local area or something that comes from a warehouse far away. If far away, using a quadrotor isn't an option, and it shows up in 2-5 business days anyway. If close, drive over to pick it up.

Do I really need that textbook I ordered off of amazon.com helicoptered to my house in 30 minutes? No. Am I willing to pay a premium that will cover insuring, powering, and repairing a quadrotor sent on a 20 km round trip with a 10 lb payload? No.

Just because it's possible doesn't mean it's a good idea.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 2, 2013 13:49:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i hate this idea.  having all of this buzzing shit flying around is insane.

LOL! 

(You ARE kidding, right?)

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 2, 2013 14:10:12 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

The "problem" is that current package delivery is efficient and more than adequate for nearly all situations. You either want something you can buy in your local area or something that comes from a warehouse far away. If far away, using a quadrotor isn't an option, and it shows up in 2-5 business days anyway. If close, drive over to pick it up.

Do I really need that textbook I ordered off of amazon.com helicoptered to my house in 30 minutes? No. Am I willing to pay a premium that will cover insuring, powering, and repairing a quadrotor sent on a 20 km round trip with a 10 lb payload? No.

Just because it's possible doesn't mean it's a good idea.

You sound like my dad.

In 1980.

Arguing "Why would anyone spend all that damn money" to have a package delivered overnight?  

And yet, people will spend $15 and more to have a simple envelope delivered by 10:00a.m. the next day.

The fact that you think there'll be "textbooks" in five year is telling, too.

I'll be the first to admit, I can't think of an instance when it would be worth it off the top of my head.  I can't.  But I do know Americans, and our instant gratification culture, will support the business.

[Sum Dum Gai]

The business model only makes sense as a novelty, or if the cost of whatever you're having delivered is already so high that the increased cost of 30 minute delivery isn't adding much.  You might pay the extra to have jewelry or something delivered by drone on your wife's birthday, if she would think that was cool.  Nobody is going to do it on cheap stuff though.  They shop online to save $2 over buying locally.  Paying an extra $10 to have their $5 item delivered in 30 minutes defeats the purpose of shopping online to begin with.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 2, 2013 13:57:42 GMT -5 Sum Dum Gai said:

Anytime technology is 5 years out that's code for it might happen in your lifetime.. if you're young.

The internet itself only came into commercial use in the early 1990's, and the tablet known as the iPad is only about 7 years old.  We are going to see change that used to take place over a century take place in a decade- or less.  Five years these days, means five years.  Or less.

[Sum Dum Gai]

Five years these days, means five years. Or less.

Sure it does.  Just like we've been five years from a computer that interfaces directly with the human brain being in mass production for like 15 years at this point.  The technological cycle is speeding up, but it's not as fast as we like to pretend it is yet.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 2, 2013 14:13:39 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Dec 2, 2013 13:49:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i hate this idea.  having all of this buzzing shit flying around is insane.

LOL! 

(You ARE kidding, right?)

no.  i am not.  i hate it.  but i am a private pilot.  so i don't want a bunch of bozo's cluttering up my airspace with sex toys and dvd's.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 2, 2013 14:23:14 GMT -5 Sum Dum Gai said:

The business model only makes sense as a novelty, or if the cost of whatever you're having delivered is already so high that the increased cost of 30 minute delivery isn't adding much.  You might pay the extra to have jewelry or something delivered by drone on your wife's birthday, if she would think that was cool.  Nobody is going to do it on cheap stuff though.  They shop online to save $2 over buying locally.  Paying an extra $10 to have their $5 item delivered in 30 minutes defeats the purpose of shopping online to begin with.

i am going to look into cheap heat seeking missles to compete with this future problem.  it will be fun blowing these drones up when they are flying over my property.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 2, 2013 11:55:29 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Domestic drones will be highly regulated.  Government agencies are already working to come up with recommendations for how to regulate and what to allow. 

any drone that delivers will have a camera mounted to it.  the NSA will probably be heavily into these cameras, and "sharing data". 

f*&k that noise.

[Sum Dum Gai]

You won't need heat seeking missiles.  These will be low altitude fairly slow drones.  You and every redneck in the country can sit on your back porch and take pot shots at them with small caliber hunting rifles.  The kids will be downing them with pellet guns, just for fun.

[billisonboard]

Sweet! I learned a new term (Hey, it is new to me). Vaporware

www.newsherald.com/opinions/blogs/brady-calhoun/send-in-the-vaporware-drones-1.243020

[workpublic]

here's something closer to practical reality

www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/12/02/applebees-tablets-table-top-devices-restaurant-technology/3698561/

That endless wait for the restaurant check soon may be over.

The way Americans pay for and order food when eating out is about to be turned on its head. If these high-tech moves — already common at eateries in parts of Europe and Asia — are a hit domestically, much of the $70 billion full-service and casual dining industry is expected to follow.

"Looking out over the next decade, it will become fairly routine for consumers in table service restaurants to use tablets to view menus, place orders and pay bills,

couple that with robotic servers and bussers and there goes part of the min wage "problem"

[Sum Dum Gai]

I don't see robotic servers becoming that common.  I think you'll see more casual places go to the order from the table and pick up yourself at the counter model.  I'll walk over and get my own food and refills to save 20% on the bill by not having to tip a waiter.  There was a barbecue place we loved in Santa Cruz that does that already.  High end places will still have armies of wait staff, but most restaurants seem to be getting more and more casual.  People eat out way more often than we used too, so it's less of a special occasion, and we want low prices more than we want outstanding service.

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 2, 2013 14:18:53 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Dec 2, 2013 14:10:12 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

The "problem" is that current package delivery is efficient and more than adequate for nearly all situations. You either want something you can buy in your local area or something that comes from a warehouse far away. If far away, using a quadrotor isn't an option, and it shows up in 2-5 business days anyway. If close, drive over to pick it up.

Do I really need that textbook I ordered off of amazon.com helicoptered to my house in 30 minutes? No. Am I willing to pay a premium that will cover insuring, powering, and repairing a quadrotor sent on a 20 km round trip with a 10 lb payload? No.

Just because it's possible doesn't mean it's a good idea.

The fact that you think there'll be "textbooks" in five year is telling, too.

*lol*

I certainly get your point, but the reason I picked a textbook is because I can't rightly think of anything small and light enough to be a quadrotor payload and also expensive enough to justify a high shipping cost.

A large, highpowered unit might--might--be able to handle a payload of 20 lbs. So consider for yourself: when was the last time you ordered something smaller than 1 cubic foot, lighter than 20 lbs. off of amazon that you'd be willing to pay a $20.00 shipping charge on, and what was it? The only thing I can think of is hardcover books and consumer electronics, and I've never even purchased the latter using amazon.com.

It's a novel idea, but so were flying cars. You can buy a flying car today, such as the Moller car, if you really want to. But you have to consider costs, risks, and limited applications.

[billisonboard]

I can see where that gasket or bolt that the repair guy is consistently in need of to finish the job would be a candidate for this type of delivery but does Amazon stock that sort of thing?

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 2, 2013 15:28:52 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I can see where that gasket or bolt that the repair guy is consistently in need of to finish the job would be a candidate for this type of delivery but does Amazon stock that sort of thing?

No. And if they did, it would be at a central warehouse a million miles away where it couldn't be delivered by quadrotor.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 2, 2013 14:43:14 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 2, 2013 14:13:39 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

LOL! 

(You ARE kidding, right?)

no.  i am not.  i hate it.  but i am a private pilot.  so i don't want a bunch of bozo's cluttering up my airspace with sex toys and dvd's.

Drones will likely have routes well below the flight paths of airplanes.  Traffic will increase- but that won't be a drone issue, it'll be a human pilot issue.  I could see making human pilots illegal.

www.ted.com/talks/vijay_kumar_robots_that_fly_and_cooperate.html

A drone can already operate in a pilot-less, automated fashion, and avoid collisions automatically.  

When I heard about the train crash over the weekend, I thought again: WHY is a PERSON still driving the train?

[workpublic]

WHY is a PERSON still driving the train?

union

they just got rid of the "firemen" a few years back.

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 2, 2013 15:59:53 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Dec 2, 2013 14:43:14 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

no.  i am not.  i hate it.  but i am a private pilot.  so i don't want a bunch of bozo's cluttering up my airspace with sex toys and dvd's.

When I heard about the train crash over the weekend, I thought again: WHY is a PERSON still driving the train?

Train crashes are nearly always caused by mechanical failures, track failures, or track scheduling errors. The first two are unpredictable. The third is already handled by computers and supervised by human operators. The crashes occur when the human supervisors don't do their jobs.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Dec 2, 2013 16:03:16 GMT -5 workpublic said:

WHY is a PERSON still driving the train?

union

they just got rid of the "firemen" a few years back.

Yeah- Unions, politicians, and bureaucrats stop a LOT of progress.

[AGB]

Dec 2, 2013 14:43:14 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 2, 2013 14:13:39 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

LOL! 

(You ARE kidding, right?)

no.  i am not.  i hate it.  but i am a private pilot.  so i don't want a bunch of bozo's cluttering up my airspace with sex toys and dvd's.

You have your priorities, I have mine... no need for name calling...

[EVT1]