AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 20, 2013 11:13:22 GMT -5
This morning in 7 states sign up numbers are up 50% but not on the federal website which is not working right. If it had been I think you would have seen more people signing up. Most people I know that don't have insurance want it if they can afford it at all. 50% of 0 is still 0 Patstab And so what- in NC there're 12 people now?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 20, 2013 11:15:13 GMT -5
politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/11/19/woman-cited-by-president-as-obamacare-success-story-frustrated-by-sign-up-process/?hpt=hp_t1Narrative momentum is a problem for Obamacare. Katrina created a focal point for an already-developing narrative about the Bush presidency - one that had, in partisan quarters, been currency for years - to go nationwide and become the filter through which all subsequent events were seen. Pundits on the left understandably decry the comparison, but the really incredible mess that Obamacare has wrought does the same for the Obama presidency. Lots of us have from day one said Obama was too standoffish, felt himself above implementation issues, relied too heavily on an echo chamber, was overconfident in his own wisdom, deliberated too long over decisions, delegated too much authority to poorly-chosen surrogates, exhibited a lack of loyalty except to those sycophants to whom he showed too much loyalty, framed everything unnecessarily as a partisan issue to facilitate points-scoring and create barriers to problem-solving, focused more on his own perpetual campaign for President than the business of being President, magnified the failings of Bush, reversed the policy successes of the past three decades, fundamentally misunderstood America and its system of government... And for a long time this litany of wingnuttery could be mocked and derided, dismissed as closeted bigotry or sour grapes, written off. Fast and Furious? Bush started it (no he didn't, but never mind). Benghazi? What about all the other embassy attacks before Obama took office? The IRS? But they were investigating other 501(c) groups as well, not just the oversensitive Tea Partiers. And wasn't all this desperate witch-hunting of a Democratic President reminiscent of how the 1990s GOP hounded Clinton? And how did that work out? This narrative prevailed for years. There was an element of racism to some critiques of the President. There were some sour grapes in there. There is, certainly, a partisan-political edge to Darrell Issa's crusade for soundbites with which to assail the President. But sometimes, just because you're a bitter partisan bigot doesn't mean you're not also right. The perverse genius of Obama has been to serve up an example of his vision of government made manifest, unsullied by Republican hands; and it has fallen upon the American people like so much jettisoned frozen waste from a passing jetliner. Since October the narrative has changed, and the President's ability to shift it - which in truth has never been very apparent, unlike the media's willingness to let it shift - is diminished. The link above illustrates the problem Obama has now: he's in a sort of credibility death spiral, where pretty much everything he says can get slapped in the face by an anecdote. He's right to say that only a small minority of Americans shop for healthcare insurance in the individual market; unfortunately, that is millions of news stories for media organs that have soured on his presidency and see legs in the story of Obamacare's ongoing and hydra-headed failures. Jessica Sanford's story is a sad one. It illustrates the central problem that has always been at the heart of the reform Democrats built in 2010: no matter how good its product quality is, the price tag for it is too high. This is why it was crucial from both a policy and a politic perspective to implement reforms to aggressively drive down costs, encourage voluntary buy-in to the market, and then implement sustainable regulatory quality improvements. Boil the frog. Get the fundamental trends right; then build the framework of expansion on those righted fundamentals. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid lacked either the patience, the vision, or the courage to do reform the right way. Pelosi paid her price in 2010; Reid may well in 2014; Obama is likely to suffer the most of the three, because three years is a long time to be an object of scorn, derision, and resentment for a hundred million people, and I can believe dj's opinion that he is too stubborn and too invested in his vision for reform to back away from it or allow it to be gutted. I think there's a fairly obvious HUGE element of racism in how this President has been treated. A white president would be gone by now.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 20, 2013 11:57:26 GMT -5
Which is what real liberals have a problem with and why they hate Obamacare. I do not think there is a real 'left wing' person in the US that thought leaving private insurance in charge of everything was a solution. That's why I refer to it as the GOP plan- because it is. What you can bank 100% on is that any GOP health reform will be private insurance based- so maybe we quit pretending that this is some socialist, government takeover of health care and see it for what it is- a gift wrapped package to insurance companies in exchange for not fucking over people as much as they used to. It will save some lives- good enough for now. What else could we have done with that dysfunctional bag of assholes in congress? Sadly, that's' the best we could come up with. indeed. conservative Democrats were to blame for this. they were never going to go for the public option, let alone single payer.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 20, 2013 11:59:29 GMT -5
EVT - PPACA really was astonishingly, extraordinarily, bad government. I mean, nobody is happy with this thing. when the parties are this far apart politically, that result is inevitable, imo. the BEST result is one that nobody is happy with.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 20, 2013 12:02:05 GMT -5
Obama is likely to suffer the most of the three, because three years is a long time to be an object of scorn, derision, and resentment for a hundred million people, and I can believe dj's opinion that he is too stubborn and too invested in his vision for reform to back away from it or allow it to be gutted. stubborn to a fault, as they say. but he is also pretty bendy when it comes to preserving the shell of what he wants, but gutting the contents. so, we will see how this law looks in 3 years. i will guarantee that it will still be on the books. but it MIGHT, with some pressure, be a shadow of it's former self.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 20, 2013 12:04:05 GMT -5
I think there's a fairly obvious HUGE element of racism in how this President has been treated. A white president would be gone by now. don't kid yourself. presidents are not impeached for legislation, Paul. at least none that i can think of.
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Lizard King
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 20, 2013 12:05:56 GMT -5
One of the articles for Nixon's impeachment was "lying to the American people," though.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 20, 2013 12:10:19 GMT -5
One of the articles for Nixon's impeachment was "lying to the American people," though. so was one of Clinton's. are you suggesting that we impeach Obama for lying about "shovel ready jobs" and "you can keep your plan"?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 20, 2013 12:57:56 GMT -5
One of the articles for Nixon's impeachment was "lying to the American people," though. True. And a significant majority of Americans now believe Obama was "trying to deceive" them. www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/11/14/lied-voters-say-obama-knew-about-dropped-plans/And there's a reason it's impeachable for a President to tell a big, substantive, deliberately calculated lie. Now we are being asked to trust him on a nuclear Iran. OF course, nobody with any sense would trust Obama with their grocery list- but he is nonetheless the POTUS and the CIC- and he's in charge. One of the reasons I felt that support for Bush might be warranted in 2004 was that our now Sec. State John Kerry was dangerously incompetent on foreign policy because his worldview was so skewed he could never possess the judgment to lead the country- especially in foreign affairs. Who knew we'd have at least ten times the idiot sitting in the White House four years later with that jackass running around the world as Sec State. I would have laughed outloud at you if you'd told me that in 2007. First of all, unless you elect Noam Chomsky- how can you get worse than John Kerry, and I wouldn't have believed Noam Chomsky would make Kerry Sec. Sate. But alas, here we are.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 20, 2013 13:03:08 GMT -5
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 20, 2013 13:18:52 GMT -5
OK, I'm about to make a prediction- and I am at least 70% sure we'll see this:
ObamaCare is going to be repealed- in its entirety.
My reasoning is this- at some point Democrats are going to have to apply a tourniquet- and that tourniquet will be placed between the party and the White House. I predict that a full-blown, screaming charge led by Democrats will make it possible for veto-proof majorities in both the House and the Senate to override the inevitable VETO.
This will serve two purposes- the first is the purpose for which a tourniquet is designed: stop the bleeding. These people are toast if they don't do that anyway. Second, a side effect- it will effectively amputate Obama- which anyone with any sense knows is coming anyway. Spinning this is unsustainable. And there are some other little talked about consequences of Obama's failed policies that are going to come home to roost that are far worse than ObamaCare-- and the Democrats probably ought to take the opportunity of the train wreck (especially those that voted against, or were not in office when the trainwreck vote was taken) to divorce themselves from Obama and think towards 2016. It's (the divorce) is going to happen anyway- Hillary may do it all by herself when she finally sells out Obama on the orders he gave for assets in the region of Benghazi to stand down- we all know he did this, it's just a matter of producing the smoking gun. If they didn't have said smoking gun, Hillary would have died in a plane crash in the Balkans by now.
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Lizard King
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 20, 2013 13:45:07 GMT -5
I'll disagree Paul. Here's why:
Let's suppose the American public can be thought of as a big, angry Kodiak bear.
Let's suppose the Republican and Democratic Parties can be thought of as two hunters that have managed to enrage it but lack the firepower to bring it down.
Let's suppose it turns on them and they run.
It should be obvious that survival for either only entails outrunning the other. And Democrats are running against the GOP that let Terry McAuliffe become Governor of Virginia, and Barack Obama become a two-term President. They're entitled to feel pretty confident.
ETA: A lot of people on the left, and in the upper echelons of the Democratic Party, have a lot invested in the idea that people are going to warm up to Obamacare; there'll be a backlash against the blacklash, and it will help them in 2014 and 2016, if they hold their nerve. I think they're bang wrong about that, but it's a powerful disincentive to repeal Obamacare. The worse it gets now, the bigger the payoff if only the thing actually works later. It's not the despair, but the hope, that dictates Obamacare's fate. The Audacity of Hope, indeed.
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 20, 2013 13:47:34 GMT -5
Now, if you suggest to me that Harry Reid is going to take a leaf out of Lyndon Johnson's Senate playbook and gut the law to save his caucus, I'm fully on board. He'll probably do what Johnson did in 1957 and vote against the result, and he'll probably do what Johnson did in 1964 and claim credit for the later, effective, reform that follows.
Whether he'll be as competent as Johnson at it is unlikely. And neither the aims nor the instruments of PPACA are as straightforward as the 1957 CRA.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 20, 2013 14:38:03 GMT -5
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 20, 2013 14:39:19 GMT -5
I'll disagree Paul. Here's why: Let's suppose the American public can be thought of as a big, angry Kodiak bear. Let's suppose the Republican and Democratic Parties can be thought of as two hunters that have managed to enrage it but lack the firepower to bring it down. Let's suppose it turns on them and they run. It should be obvious that survival for either only entails outrunning the other. And Democrats are running against the GOP that let Terry McAuliffe become Governor of Virginia, and Barack Obama become a two-term President. They're entitled to feel pretty confident. ETA: A lot of people on the left, and in the upper echelons of the Democratic Party, have a lot invested in the idea that people are going to warm up to Obamacare; there'll be a backlash against the blacklash, and it will help them in 2014 and 2016, if they hold their nerve. I think they're bang wrong about that, but it's a powerful disincentive to repeal Obamacare. The worse it gets now, the bigger the payoff if only the thing actually works later. It's not the despair, but the hope, that dictates Obamacare's fate. The Audacity of Hope, indeed. Actually, VA Governor's race scared the shit out of the Dems- they know they nearly lost it, and they know why: ObamaCare. And btw, that was largely before these new really scary numbers came in.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 20, 2013 14:40:22 GMT -5
And your "if" is just too big an "if" to conceive of- "if it works"-- not possible. The law is unworkable.
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Lizard King
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 20, 2013 15:23:34 GMT -5
They can't see that.
Seeing that would mean people like Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi saying to people like Ted Cruz, "hey, you know what? You called it. We were wrong about this the whole time. Please show us how we should have done it."
They might as well ask their supporters to vote Republican for the rest of their lives. It's not just a pride thing. In a two-party state with a vanishing middle, it's a survival thing. Pelosi cannot ever be anything Republican, any more than Phil Gingrey can ever be anything Democratic. "Never the twain shall meet." Obamacare is a symbol; its fate is the President's fate, and the President's fate determined the party's fate.
I don't think anybody expected it would be quite this bad. I see huge structural problems with the law, but I assumed it was an Alinskyite Trojan horse for single payer, designed to place enough strains on the existing system to make the alternative popular. I still can't quite believe what a partisan nightmare it has become for Democrats, ahead of the worst Senate election cycle possible.
Politically, it manages to inflame the other side's grassroots operatives while dismaying key elements of the Democratic base. A lot of liberals were always unhappy that the President flubbed an opportunity to include at least the option of single payer (which option would be looking awfully good in the microshort-term right about now), and a lot of young people are facing either fines or steep out-of-pocket costs when their parents lose their plans (suddenly, being kept on those plans as a dependent until you're 26 doesn't seem such a bargain). Ken Cuccinelli, whose social positions are so unhip and so out of touch, beat Terry McAuliffe among the youngest Virginia voters, the ones who have experienced Obamerika but only really got told about the Bush years.
Recent polling shows Pryor, Hagan, and Udall in Colorado in serious trouble a year out. Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia are already considered likely Republican pickups. Mary Landrieu is right in the firing line, and Iowa's open Senate seat may be a pickup potential. Mark Begich in Alaska is in very unfriendly territory. Republicans need six of those nine for outright control of the Senate. It's still too far out to say how they'll fare - it's not simply a function of Obamacare, or any one factor - but the damage being done the Democratic brand now is only a taste of the damage that can be expected in October 2014, right before the election, if quite dramatic reforms aren't enacted.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 20, 2013 15:53:48 GMT -5
I'll disagree Paul. Here's why: Let's suppose the American public can be thought of as a big, angry Kodiak bear. Let's suppose the Republican and Democratic Parties can be thought of as two hunters that have managed to enrage it but lack the firepower to bring it down. Let's suppose it turns on them and they run. It should be obvious that survival for either only entails outrunning the other. And Democrats are running against the GOP that let Terry McAuliffe become Governor of Virginia, and Barack Obama become a two-term President. They're entitled to feel pretty confident. ETA: A lot of people on the left, and in the upper echelons of the Democratic Party, have a lot invested in the idea that people are going to warm up to Obamacare; there'll be a backlash against the blacklash, and it will help them in 2014 and 2016, if they hold their nerve. I think they're bang wrong about that, but it's a powerful disincentive to repeal Obamacare. The worse it gets now, the bigger the payoff if only the thing actually works later. It's not the despair, but the hope, that dictates Obamacare's fate. The Audacity of Hope, indeed. about 1/3 of the voting public would take a bullet for Obama. that is unlikely to change. about 1/3 probably want to do something else with a bullet. that is unlikely to change. this is a war over the other 1/3. their turnout, and their opinion is what is going to make or break this. but even if 100% of them were to support the GOP, it would STILL be an uphill climb for them in 2014, give the staggered voting patterns in the Senate, and the filibuster rule. again, i predict that this law is in place in January 2017. there is only one vote that counts, and it is that of BHO.
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Lizard King
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 20, 2013 16:36:30 GMT -5
You're assuming, not without justification, that the Democratic Party remains a cult of personality. Of course, Tea Partiers in the primaries can screw things up a bit for Republicans like Mississippi's Thad Cochran; on the other hand, old white Deep South Senators like Thad Cochran are part of the GOP's larger image problem (even if he has positive support from Democrats in his state).
But there is still a very good chance that continuing bad news about Obamacare makes changing it, and vindicating the likes of Ted Cruz in the process, a political necessity for Democratic control of the Senate to remain a possibility. If the GOP puts up decent candidates in half the gettable races I outlined above, the Senate might flip, and guys like Joe Manchin might go along with the new Republican majority on votes that embarrass the President and "put a bullet" in Obamacare for good. The canny move, and Harry Reid is canny, would be to pre-empt that sort of Senate environment by reforming Obamacare with Democratic ownership and blunting the anger against sitting Democratic Senators on the issue: let Obama be the fall-guy, because - this is the cute part - he's always kept his distance from Congressional Democrats anyway. They don't have to die with him, and they do have to transition to Hillary-worship sometime anyway.
How do you ask somebody to be the last Senator to lose his seat for a mistake?
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Post by Angel! on Nov 20, 2013 17:40:34 GMT -5
OK, I'm about to make a prediction- and I am at least 70% sure we'll see this: ObamaCare is going to be repealed- in its entirety. I your optimism. It is just so cute. But, I think this goes along with some of your other predictions - Herman Cain, Romney, the shutdown successfully killing Obamacare. It just isn't going to happen. I think you are forgetting that the public has an incredibly short attention span. There are 2 primary reasons people dislike the ACA right now - the website sucks & the large number of cancellations. The website will get fixed & maybe 5% of the public were actually affected by the cancellations. Those 5% may stay angry for a long time. The rest of the public, well they weren't really impacted & will stop caring really quick when it stops being a top new story. Phoenix is right in that they absolutely will not let this fail - at least not in the sense of repealing it any time soon. There is both pride & the need for it to work. It is going to have to be a monumental failure before they give up on it. You might say it already it, but they would said it is just hiccups in the transistion. They are going to give it way more time before giving up (8 weeks, LOL, try years) because they believe it will work. And whether or not it works like they want it to, the public's anger will fade & this will be old news. Like DJ said, it will still be around in 2017. And I would give odds on that prediction at a lot higher than 70%.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 20, 2013 18:17:48 GMT -5
You're assuming, not without justification, that the Democratic Party remains a cult of personality. remains? no. i am assuming only that they are way more solid than the GOP right now, in terms of solidarity. i think the speculations about them wavering are just that. they might waver. they might not.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 20, 2013 19:09:20 GMT -5
Not Fox.
Not Heritage.
CNN:
The trainwreck has been shown to low information voters, this will have an impact. These are people that haven't been tuned into the train wreck that is the Obama presidency for the last five years. They're shocked by this. They're scared. And they're pissed off.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 20, 2013 19:20:04 GMT -5
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 21, 2013 11:12:57 GMT -5
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 21, 2013 14:38:55 GMT -5
You know what's cute? People that believe Obama.
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Post by Angel! on Nov 21, 2013 16:35:38 GMT -5
You know what's cute? People that believe Obama. When you believe everything any politician says, I think that's called being a dumbass. Just by the very nature of their job you have to know that they won't be 100% honest, that situations will change so what they said yesterday may not be true today, their knowledge of a situation might be wrong, that their opinions change (sometimes just because the polls seem to indicate they need to shift their position), that they can often be bought by a big spender, and sometimes they just can't accomplish what they want to accomplish for various reasons.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 21, 2013 16:48:21 GMT -5
OK, so the latest update is that Mr. Obama is upset that the insurance companies called the cancellations cancellations. He thinks they're out to sabotage his precious ObamaCare because they called cancellations cancellations. He thinks they should have called them "renewal" letters or explained "improvements" instead of telling people the truth- they can't keep their existing plans. Let me tell you something, and you lefties and Democrats can argue with me if you wish: This is a substantial problem for a huge numbers of Americans created entirely by PPACA which is designed to force as many people- especially younger, healthy people, with decent incomes into a federal exchange in order to sustain the program. Without a large number of younger, lower risk, healthy people with decent incomes being forced into the exchanges and into paying higher premiums, the whole subsidy part of this implodes. And based upon Mr. Obama's ridiculous blame-game with insurance companies, and his as yet completely without substance response to the very problems ObamaCare was designed to create- he is going to continue to suffer politically. There's no spinning his way out of this. He tried to pull a fast one, and he got caught. The law is unworkable unless he can stop the very fixes that need to be made- those designed to force the changes necessary to keep all the other promises of ObamaCare- namely the subsidies. Only #FullRepeal lies ahead. The game is up. And it looks as though the stupid party might just be gearing up for a real, substantive fight- in which case, there is no defending this train wreck. Burn, baby, burn! www.nytimes.com/2013/11/21/us/politics/gop-maps-out-waves-of-attacks-over-health-law.html?hp&_r=0hotair.com/archives/2013/11/21/new-gop-strategy-on-obamacare-let-it-burn/thehill.com/homenews/senate/191003-gop-on-obamacare-let-it-self-destruct
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 21, 2013 18:42:46 GMT -5
Trouble...
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Post by EVT1 on Nov 21, 2013 23:16:10 GMT -5
Yep- real trouble for Obama. No way he is getting re-elected with these numbers.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 21, 2013 23:21:48 GMT -5
Yep- real trouble for Obama. No way he is getting re-elected with these numbers. yeah, there is no f-ing way he beats Hillary in 2016.
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