Market...8.12427140782862977630430% from Expert 50/50

[bimetalaupt]

dividends for cat of nine A+++ Alpha 3.28549
percentage of earnings for cat of nine... 56.02507124769523727536580%
safe cat of nine .................................5.86432394312607296882334%
10Y T-Note........................................2.61000000000000031974423%
ERP..................................................3.25432394312607220498990%
erp average market earning risk ......... 5.51427140782863034473849%
market return..................................... 8.12427140782862977630430%

Target ERP for buy set at 6.0000%... get your buy list ready...we are 90% there!!

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

all numbers direct fro Expert 50/50  fresh from 10:12 AM 9-30-2013

CAPM BASED
average beta.................. 0.59016390424778 FOR CAT OF NINE  

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 30, 2013 9:14:33 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

dividends for cat of nine A+++ Alpha 3.28549%
percentage of earnings for cat of nine... 56.02507124769523727536580%
safe cat of nine .................................5.86432394312607296882334%
10Y T-Note........................................2.61000000000000031974423%
ERP..................................................3.25432394312607220498990%
erp average market earning risk ......... 5.51427140782863034473849%
market return..................................... 8.12427140782862977630430%

Target ERP for buy set at 6.0000%... get your buy list ready...we are 90% there!!

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

all numbers direct fro Expert 50/50  fresh from 10:12 AM 9-30-2013

CAPM BASED
average beta.................. 0.59016390424778 FOR CAT OF NINE  

I guess we got there but my guess is we have to wait for a resolution to say we have hit the lows eh? 

[bimetalaupt]

Time to expand beta..take on more risk...
erp average market earning risk ......... 5.51427140782863034473849%
market return..................................... 8.12427140782862977630430%

Example of higher ERP...C with beta of 2.33 would be.........12.85%  
or Guide Stone Small cap with Beta 1.20m would be.............6.62


Well..If so!!!!! limit HIGH risk to about 10%

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

PS: MORE INFO ON GRAPHS SHOWN ON SFW  NEW DJIA . INCREASED SD AND PROJECTED GROWTH  IN MI.....

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sounds like the 8-10% you were talking about when the 10 yr t-bill was at 3% would be going to good use right about now eh? Hi risk... Like AMD

[bimetalaupt]

CHANGE IN THE CHANGE IN M3 ...NOW 9%GROWTH   RUSSELL 2000 IS HOT!!! UP 30% !!!


THE TREND IS BACKED WITH THE BETA 1.22!!!   interest FOR 10Y T-NOTE = 2.5!!!

50 YEAR PROJECTED 9.222...   TIME TO TAKE SOME MONEY OFF THE TABLE?   READY FOR THE NEXT OBAMA EVENT.. THEN !!!!!!!
OIL PRODUCTION HAS GONE UP TO THE POINT WHERE THE USA CREDIT RATING IS A+++...  M3 IS GROWING FASTER THEN DEBT...LONG TERM GROWTH OF CAPITAL HAS A HIGH DELTA ( CHANGE IN THE CHANGE)...GO ALPHA GO

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

Today hot topic on the the net....60% stock and 40%bonds...I think this is not a rule like CNBC all it!!

We have also studied 50/50 with the expert model know Expert 50/50 model.  OK
50/50 return = 8.125  with beta of 1.2....
60/40 return =9.222 THE TREND IS BACKED WITH THE BETA 1.22!!! interest FOR 10Y T-NOTE = 2.5!!!

50 YEAR PROJECTED 9.222... TIME TO TAKE SOME MONEY OFF THE TABLE?   Risk-free,,,NO!!!

TOO many Bulls...Everyone on CNBC was a stock bull and Bear Bond..Time to rebalanced !!
Just a though,
BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

Max return  80/50/-30  return  with average beta 1.51  50 year projection $10,000= $885,183

9.00% total return
2.78%  10 y t-note
6.22%  erp average!!!

What a buy  based on  junk bonds and total market etf...cost was Schwab SCHB...0.04%

Going Wild!!!! Long on risk and Volatility
BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

well M3 is now UP 8.1%...IE Delta is negative 0.9%  effect on Return...negative...but market is down and the new S&P has a higher SD!!
 New Market = 9.0818594882%  Now there was a battle!!

Did you say FB in the S&P 500!!  Beta !!!!!! Games more exciting then "Hunger Games"

Bi

[bimetalaupt]

Dec 14, 2013 5:03:09 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

well M3 is now UP 8.1%...IE Delta is negative 0.9%  effect on Return...negative...but market is down and the new S&P has a higher SD!!
 New Market = 9.0818594882%  Now there was a battle!!

Did you say FB in the S&P 500!!  Beta !!!!!! Games more exciting then "Hunger Games"

Bi

For the record...

With an average cost of mutual Funds..Like Guidestone Small Cap of 1.29%...category = 1.28% most funds do not cover the cost..10 year was 8.49%;now this did not match beta of 1.000.

Now the risk is related to beta...9.081859 less 10 year t-note 3% =6.08159%
                      times 1.29 = Equity risk premium 7.84525
                         total return subjected by Efficient Market Hypothesis = 10.84525%

This is part of the reason MMXV made 54% for 2013 vs 38.88% for GSCZX...

Looking forward to 2014% .. Hunting fishing and New York!!
Year is in the books!!

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

54% for the year eh? Nice one. I guess when you talk about real estate you mean it because you know exactly how much you can make in the market. There is something to owning hard assets at the right price isn't there?

[bimetalaupt]

Dec 30, 2013 23:32:53 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

54% for the year eh? Nice one. I guess when you talk about real estate you mean it because you know exactly how much you can make in the market. There is something to owning hard assets at the right price isn't there?

A+++,
Robert Kirby published his famous "Coffee Can Portfolio"  Always buy ( bet on black) and never sell. This is the antisepsis of the Expert 50/50 system..Over the years I have made good money on bonds as I would be buying bonds or selling them to rework my asset blend.(BET ON RED)Last year the buy was so high I dipped into Russell 2000 futures.. The problem with selling stock is AMT.. High cost of income recondition!!! You can borrow up to 90% of the value of T-Bonds...(FRIDAY MODEL)THE FUTURE COULD BE ON THE BARBELL....80%T-BONDS 50%ETF 20%OPTIONS (PUTS SOLD)..ALL DEPENDS ON VIX..IMPLIED VOLATILITY FOR QQQ OR  IYZ...SELL CALLS ON ETF PUT TO YOU

WE HAVE ART TO SELL THIS SPRING AND FALL....
JUST A THOUGHT
Bruce

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

I spent some time reading Kirby last night, interesting stuff.

The 50/50 system is set up for a TFSA that is for sure, I just can imagine smoothing out risk with PUT options, I mean, you might as well short the 30 yr!

Moving that art into something that is income producing, now that is a way to smooth things out.... Will continue to add to my positions when the time is right. One day I will have to take a look inside that coffee can of mine.

God Bless,

[bimetalaupt]

Jan 18, 2014 20:42:06 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

,

I spent some time reading Kirby last night, interesting stuff.

The 50/50 system is set up for a TFSA that is for sure, I just can imagine smoothing out risk with PUT options, I mean, you might as well short the 30 yr!

Moving that art into something that is income producing, now that is a way to smooth things out.... Will continue to add to my positions when the time is right. One day I will have to take a look inside that coffee can of mine.

God Bless,

A+++,
The pair are an income producing system..A bit on the risky side.. as in very risky..Short 30 year T-Bond...That is the houses bank account!!! You could be correct...Flow5 published that in 2012!  Widow Maker..You could be correct!!!

Now if I re-bought 25 blue chips I would have an index..Coffee Can Portfolio..Like WXYZ..If I sold Puts on QQQ I could increase income and lower my cost to buy..Sell covered calls and keep the dividends in the form of stock... or I could do nothing except reinvest my dividends!!!; beta < then 0.6 (Low risk..High income Good Growth)......Low taxes..Kash is King...
Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 19, 2014 0:19:11 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Jan 18, 2014 20:42:06 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

,

I spent some time reading Kirby last night, interesting stuff.

The 50/50 system is set up for a TFSA that is for sure, I just can imagine smoothing out risk with PUT options, I mean, you might as well short the 30 yr!

Moving that art into something that is income producing, now that is a way to smooth things out.... Will continue to add to my positions when the time is right. One day I will have to take a look inside that coffee can of mine.

God Bless,

A+++,
The pair are an income producing system..A bit on the risky side.. as in very risky..Short 30 year T-Bond...That is the houses bank account!!! You could be correct...Flow5 published that in 2012!  Widow Maker..You could be correct!!!

Now if I re-bought 25 blue chips I would have an index..Coffee Can Portfolio..Like WXYZ..If I sold Puts on QQQ I could increase income and lower my cost to buy..Sell covered calls and keep the dividends in the form of stock... or I could do nothing except reinvest my dividends!!!; beta < then 0.6 (Low risk..High income Good Growth)......Low taxes..Kash is King...
Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

 the  ,

  I thought you would like the one about the widow maker....   Not happening on my end that is for sure.

I see it like this, you have to be able to tolerate and manage your risk, right?  If you can manage it and make money, you're rewarded for it... It's the ones who can't manage it, or any risk for that matter that make bad personal investors.  I know exactly what is "in the can" and the best way to maximize returns and reinvested dividends on those holdings is to "buy in the rounds" as the DIs put it.  ReD Rounds, ReD Rounds...    The market NEVER goes straight up, and there is ALWAYS cycles! 

For me personally, bonds will become a bigger part, but only when a bad trade would mean I was stuck with 5% income..  Yes, I agree, Kash is King. 

Later,

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

B,

What does that damn super computer of yours say about next week?? Tip toeing into some IBM, just was wondering...

We have talked about 13K as a possibility at some point this year... THE MIDDLE EAST!!! Not saying we are going to hit 13k, but at the same time MMxx talks technical.. After a down January the charts overwhelmingly point to more pressure into spring...

There is also the market margin factor that can lead to panic and an untechnical situation.. Also, US 2013 GDP was the slowest in years.

Later,

[usaone]

I don't think we get anywhere near 13k.......look at GDP even with the contraction in Government spending.

FB continues to chug along. Up almost 20%!


How about Google. I think of them as a Utility now.............

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I hear ya Usawon, it's the death of socialism my friend.

Companies have been kicking their lower guidance in the balls that is for sure. Problem is that is also how they are kicking the lower guidance in the balls. Does this mean that earnings are a bit weaker then they are letting on?

If average(3-4% GDP) PE for the markets is about 16, then at 1.5% GDP we are pricey... I am thinking that GDP going to be slow again this year, OBAMACARE!

I share in your long term optimism, I'm just wondering if not much is being said right now because this regime is supposed to be moderate?

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