NEW DJIA . INCREASED SD AND PROJECTED GROWTH

[bimetalaupt]

9/28/13 Forecast current discount sd 12/31/2009 low for day value at risk
NEW DJIA..... 12998.2939242072..... 15258.24...... 14.079500468185% ......12.3714% ''''''''10428 ............$1,887.65
djtm 17238.53765 17809.02 12.08891347% 18.0429419% 11182.39 $3,213.27
djua 482.975165243767 482.190 18.222692% 17.6720805754% 379.200 $85.21
russell 2m 857.549943550499 1074.19 17.14363002% 14.65338202% 625.39 $157.41
qqqq 91.7319054138178 79.07 16.0135391600% 18.4762% 45.98 $14.61

trend
djia 13145.5471294271 11425.31 15.05637% 12.3714% 10428 2717.54712942711
djtm 14936.1617461249 17809.02 -16.13148% 18.0429419% 11182.39 3753.77174612492
djua 489.791788745054 482.190 1.57651% 17.6720805754% 379.200 110.591788745054
russell 2k 899.323891581628 1074.19 -16.27888% 14.65338202% 625.39 273.933891581628
qqqq 72.76320381071 79.07 -7.9762187799% 18.4762% 45.98 26.78320381071

ballanced djia with black swan weighted average 12998.2939242072
projected loss including loss -$2259.95 -14.81132%
MMXV-Black Swan alpha class (c) 2013 Bruce C. Lendrum MBA LenData,USA
beta 4/15/2013
discount = without black swan correction
NOTE DJIA HAS INCREAED SD BY 15% TEST SD FOR USE 14.2271% 10% CHANGE WITH LARGER NUMBERS AND SD

for the total picture go to Super Fed Watch...Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[Deleted]

 I wonder if any odf that makes any sense to people?
 And as for all the numbers after the decimal point ( "NEW DJIA..... 12998.2939242072") that's just nonsense.
 
 Does anyone buy tomatoes for $1.894372108 per lb.? No.

[bimetalaupt]

Sept 28, 2013 18:32:18 GMT -5 @patiencetried said:

 I wonder if any odf that makes any sense to people?
 And as for all the numbers after the decimal point ( "NEW DJIA..... 12998.2939242072") that's just nonsense.
 
 Does anyone buy tomatoes for $1.894372108 per lb.? No.

Posted by patiencetried
about an hour ago
This is straight from the model..It takes more time to round...IA64 are quit the math modeling system with 96 Gigs of ram.  These nunbers are used in  driving the 50/50 expert trading program..rks well and this is less percistion then they pas in the real world.  The market is in danger of a very nasty correction,,

For my money I think DJTM is best.  17238.53765  or if you want 17239.

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

for the record...this is 23 place percussion that is used in the ia64 math floating point system and hyas built in error correction.

new djia.................................. 12998.2939242072097840718925
sd for old system ..........................12.37137461445730401976562%
estimate for new djia sd ............... 14.22708080662589935627693%   .
delta  aka 2nd directive of position....1.85570619216859489242211%
Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

About Itanium Math!!

At root, the problem is that the ia64 back end does not accurately model the hardware. The ia64 architecture's floating point has a number of exotic features:

Floating-point registers are 82 bits wide and use an (internal, subject-to-change) format which does not exactly correspond to any IEEE data type.

Values loaded from memory in IEEE single, double, or extended format are automatically extended (butnotnormalized) to the full register width. Arithmetic instructions all operate on the full register width, with an optional truncation to single or double precision afterward; the truncated value is then immediately extended back to register width. The upshot is that it is almost never necessary to execute a widening conversion instruction, and narrowing conversions can frequently be merged with a preceding arithmetic instruction.
There are four alternative IEEE control registers. Each instruction can specify which control register is used. Most calculation uses control register 0; register 1 is reserved for use by arithmetic library routines (e.g. division and square root) and has contents defined by the ABI; registers 2 and 3 are for speculative floating-point calculation, which is out of scope for this discussion.

GCC's model is inaccurate in the following ways:

It is not aware that widening conversions are not necessary in most cases. This directly causes suboptimal code to be generated. Also, hand-coded assembly sequences (again such as division and square root) that avoid widening conversions must cheat in some way. The current inline divide is done with a post-reload splitter, at which point hard registers can be referenced in more than one mode. The problem with this is, register allocation is likely to allocate the same scratch registers to all divisions in the same function, which forces them to be serialized against each other even when the scheduler would like it to be otherwise.
It is not aware of the 82-bit register format. This would be harmless if it were not desired to make operations in that format accessible to the user (primarily for ease of coding math libraries); see below.
Only a limited set of instruction patterns which use the alternate control registers are available. Again, this is only a problem because it is desired to make the alternate control registers accessible to the user. (It will also be a problem if and when we ever get round to implementing speculative calculation.)

There are also related maintenance headaches:

To model the fact that narrowing conversions can be merged with preceding arithmetic instructions, we must create extra insn patterns: one for each DFmode pattern and two for each XFmode pattern, differing only in the RTL template. This produces massive duplication of code.
Adding a complete set of alternate-control-register patterns will require yet more duplication: for every pattern (including the merged-narrowing-conversion patterns) a duplicate differing only in the RTL template and output format.

Features

It is desired to add some features of the HP-UX system compiler for ia64 to GCC. They facilitate coding high-speed math libraries in C rather than in assembly.

=__fpreg=

=fpreg= is an extended floating point type which provides user access to the full width of the floating point registers. It has the following properties:

It is copied between registers and memory with 'fill/spill' instructions that transfer the complete internal register content.

There is no way to write a constant with type __fpreg

Only the following operations on __fpreg types are supported:
Function calls (arguments and return values)
Arithmetic operations of addition (+), subtraction (-) and multiplication (*)

Unary minus (-) and address operator (&

Equality operations !=)

Relationals (<, < , >, >
Simple assignment
Initialization

Casts to/from any other arithmetic type (except __float128 see below)
Element of a struct/union
Element of an array
Pointers to this type

Mixed-mode calculations with __fpreg and a narrower type, in the usual C fashion, widen the narrower type to __fpreg before performing the calculation (as discussed above, this normally requires no explicit conversion instruction).

Widening conversion from __fpreg to __float128 (IEEE quad, implemented only in software) is not allowed.

Narrowing conversion from __fpreg to float double or __float80 (IEEE extended) is "passive": the value is not truncated. The next arithmetic operation in the narrower mode will see the full-width value. (Also, if the value is written to memory in the narrower mode it is obviously truncated. This has the potential to cause problems similar to those seen on the i386 architecture with its wide internal calculations; however, the vast number of registers available on the ia64 architecture makes the odds of users actually experiencing problems small.)

Conversions between __fpreg and integer types have the usual C semantics. define_insn "adddf3"
[(set (match_operand:DF 0 "fr_register_operand" "=f")
(plus:DF (match_operand:DF 1 "fr_register_operand" "%f")
(match_operand:DF 2 "fr_reg_or_fp01_operand" "fG")))]
""
"fadd.d %0 = %1, %F2"
[(set_attr "itanium_class" "fmac")])

(define_insn "*adddf3_trunc"
[(set (match_operand:SF 0 "fr_register_operand" "=f")
(float_truncate:SF
(plus:DF (match_operand:DF 1 "fr_register_operand" "%f")
(match_operand:DF 2 "fr_reg_or_fp01_operand" "fG"))))]
""
"fadd.s %0 = %1, %F2"
[(set_attr "itanium_class" "fmac")])

(define_insn "*adddf3_alts"
[(set (match_operand:DF 0 "fr_register_operand" "=f")
(plus:DF (match_operand:DF 1 "fr_register_operand" "%f")
(match_operand:DF 2 "fr_reg_or_fp01_operand" "fG")))
(use (match_operand:SI 3 "const_int_operand" ""))]
""
"fadd.d.s%3 %0 = %1, %F2"
[set_attr "itanium_class" "fmac")])

(define_insn "*adddf3_trunc_alts"
[(set (match_operand:SF 0 "fr_register_operand" "=f")
(float_truncate:SF
(plus:DF (match_operand:DF 1 "fr_register_operand" "%f")
(match_operand:DF 2 "fr_reg_or_fp01_operand" "fG"))))
(use (match_operand:SI 3 "const_int_operand" ""))]
""
"fadd.s.s%3 %0 = %1, %F2"
[(set_attr "itanium_class" "fmac")])

[bimetalaupt]

THIS IS WHERE THE DELTA FOR M3 HIT...NOW RUNNING 9%!!!  RISE OVER RUN INCREASED FROM 5% TO 9%......CHANGE IN THE CHANGE...

LOOK AT 15 MONTH ALPHA PROJECTIONS FROM MMXIII PROJECTION....FROM 1/1/2013  OF ABOUT 18,500 FOR DJIA...MOST OF  THIS IS FROM SHARE BUY BACKS....JNJ...XOM...IBM...PFE ARE THE STARS!!!! 

GROWTH IN 2014 SHOULD ACCELERATE...POSITIVE DELTA DERIVATIVE OF M3 DELTA!!!(DEPENDENT VECTOR OF M3 AND NONE-M2-M3!!)

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

PS...HAVE A GREAT WEEK END!!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I had a good, but very busy weekend, thanks. Hope your was good as well, BiMetal!

Oct 25, 2013 17:45:46 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

CHANGE IN THE CHANGE IN M3 ...NOW 9%GROWTH   RUSSELL 2000 IS HOT!!! UP 30% !!!


THE TREND IS BACKED WITH THE BETA 1.22!!!   interest FOR 10Y T-NOTE = 2.5!!!

50 YEAR PROJECTED 9.222...   TIME TO TAKE SOME MONEY OFF THE TABLE?   READY FOR THE NEXT OBAMA EVENT.. THEN !!!!!!!
OIL PRODUCTION HAS GONE UP TO THE POINT WHERE THE USA CREDIT RATING IS A+++...  M3 IS GROWING FASTER THEN DEBT...LONG TERM GROWTH OF CAPITAL HAS A HIGH DELTA ( CHANGE IN THE CHANGE)...GO ALPHA GO

Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

I pulled the quote above from one of your other posts B, it belongs here as well, IMO. Amazing isn't it? Regardless of ones political views, you can't hide the math! Fact is, the underlying economy is doing so much better than most think. I've tried pointing that out by the increase in home prices, car prices hitting record highs due to people paying for luxury options, and continued consumer spending in the face of political uncertainty. What you have here though is mathematical proof that money isn't just being horded, it's finding its way into the economy and that's why the USA is growing.

Fact is if there was deflation, the economy would be spiraling out of control, there would be massive civil unrest in the US, earnings would be non existent, and US oil production wouldn't be growing. In other words, if this was a downward spiral, political BS arguments wouldn't be needed, the MATH would show it.

At this point, I am 100% convinced that all this stimulus is nothing but a BS dog and pony show for the 50% of investors/business people out there the HATE Prez Obama. Just as we have talked about for a few years now B, Fed Seen Avoiding Historic Loss by Holding Mortgage Debt

[bimetalaupt]

Sept 28, 2013 17:18:12 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

9/28/13 Forecast current discount sd 12/31/2009 low for day value at risk
NEW DJIA..... 12998.2939242072..... 15258.24...... 14.079500468185% ......12.3714% ''''''''10428 ............$1,887.65
djtm 17238.53765 17809.02 12.08891347% 18.0429419% 11182.39 $3,213.27
djua 482.975165243767 482.190 18.222692% 17.6720805754% 379.200 $85.21
russell 2m 857.549943550499 1074.19 17.14363002% 14.65338202% 625.39 $157.41
qqqq 91.7319054138178 79.07 16.0135391600% 18.4762% 45.98 $14.61

trend
djia 13145.5471294271 11425.31 15.05637% 12.3714% 10428 2717.54712942711
djtm 14936.1617461249 17809.02 -16.13148% 18.0429419% 11182.39 3753.77174612492
djua 489.791788745054 482.190 1.57651% 17.6720805754% 379.200 110.591788745054
russell 2k 899.323891581628 1074.19 -16.27888% 14.65338202% 625.39 273.933891581628
qqqq 72.76320381071 79.07 -7.9762187799% 18.4762% 45.98 26.78320381071

ballanced djia with black swan weighted average 12998.2939242072
projected loss including loss -$2259.95 -14.81132%
MMXV-Black Swan alpha class (c) 2013 Bruce C. Lendrum MBA LenData,USA
beta 4/15/2013
discount = without black swan correction
NOTE DJIA HAS INCREAED SD BY 15% TEST SD FOR USE 14.2271% 10% CHANGE WITH LARGER NUMBERS AND SD

for the total picture go to Super Fed Watch...Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

A+++,
Is this MMXV bear (black swan) projection you were asking about?djia 13145.5471294271
SD projection now was 15%!!
NEW DJIA..... 12998.2939242072..... 15258.24...... 14.079500468185% ......12.3714% ''''''''10428 ............$1,887.65

Just a reprint..a thought as before.....Black swans are flying in formation!!

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 31, 2014 8:00:40 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Sept 28, 2013 17:18:12 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

9/28/13 Forecast current discount sd 12/31/2009 low for day value at risk
NEW DJIA..... 12998.2939242072..... 15258.24...... 14.079500468185% ......12.3714% ''''''''10428 ............$1,887.65
djtm 17238.53765 17809.02 12.08891347% 18.0429419% 11182.39 $3,213.27
djua 482.975165243767 482.190 18.222692% 17.6720805754% 379.200 $85.21
russell 2m 857.549943550499 1074.19 17.14363002% 14.65338202% 625.39 $157.41
qqqq 91.7319054138178 79.07 16.0135391600% 18.4762% 45.98 $14.61

trend
djia 13145.5471294271 11425.31 15.05637% 12.3714% 10428 2717.54712942711
djtm 14936.1617461249 17809.02 -16.13148% 18.0429419% 11182.39 3753.77174612492
djua 489.791788745054 482.190 1.57651% 17.6720805754% 379.200 110.591788745054
russell 2k 899.323891581628 1074.19 -16.27888% 14.65338202% 625.39 273.933891581628
qqqq 72.76320381071 79.07 -7.9762187799% 18.4762% 45.98 26.78320381071

ballanced djia with black swan weighted average 12998.2939242072
projected loss including loss -$2259.95 -14.81132%
MMXV-Black Swan alpha class (c) 2013 Bruce C. Lendrum MBA LenData,USA
beta 4/15/2013
discount = without black swan correction
NOTE DJIA HAS INCREAED SD BY 15% TEST SD FOR USE 14.2271% 10% CHANGE WITH LARGER NUMBERS AND SD

for the total picture go to Super Fed Watch...Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

A+++,
Is this MMXV bear (black swan) projection you were asking about?djia 13145.5471294271
SD projection now was 15%!!
NEW DJIA..... 12998.2939242072..... 15258.24...... 14.079500468185% ......12.3714% ''''''''10428 ............$1,887.65

Just a reprint..a thought as before.....Black swans are flying in formation!!

BiMetalAuPt

,

It might have been, seems a bit longer ago than I remember, but time does fly.

It fly's like the "swans" that have formed up for sure, Feb is going to make or break the year. Coincidence that the Olympics are starting in the most unstable area of the planet?

I have to be a buyer of US stocks right now though. The Canadian dollar looks like it's on the way to 80 cents. Been a good extra 30% so far.

Later,

[bimetalaupt]

A+++,
The Next generation Friday Special...
Produced Value at risk  for one week of $197.9721559573 for the DJIA!!
with Standard Deviation of the population of approximately  $206.3676033058

  DJIA lost for the week $195.200000000 
Less then one  weekly SD  and you would thought..
Great Month for bonds..   At this rate we will see 2% on the 10 Year T-Note!!!!  
weekly SD 10 year Interest is 0.0960495867769

Yes I remember Oct 2008and March 2009..Bull Market in T-Notes and T-Bonds..We were about reworking at3% in Dec 2013...Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,


It's official, I'm more busy on the weekend than the weekdays, tgis..

Yes you did think back in Dec that bonds were bullish, great call, as usual. Must be the help of the unemotional...

EFT that tracks the 10 yr if you want to have some fun in Vegas then eh?

Pretty safe bet though, what's this?

John Kerry Threatens Israel with Boycotts if talks fail

I'm sure I have read somewhere, something about a peace deal being forced on Israel... Considering that Israel has only existed for about 60 out of the last 3000 years or so...

As you say, more later,