Ombud
Junior Associate
Joined: Jan 14, 2013 23:21:04 GMT -5
Posts: 7,602
|
Post by Ombud on Aug 28, 2013 8:52:52 GMT -5
Or is this the beginning of a correction? Not a market timer but sitting with 41% cash -- wondering when to get back in
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Nov 24, 2024 20:06:08 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2013 9:25:52 GMT -5
i am at 5% cash.....just dividend proceeds mostly
and yes....imo stocks are on sale at this point
especially large cap dividend payers.....
waiting for a few more days.....i think the missile strikes means another 2-3% down
after that i will add to existing companies.....
no new ones on my "to buy" list at this point
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Nov 24, 2024 20:06:08 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2013 9:28:55 GMT -5
The DOW is down 5+% from its highs so we are halfway to a correction already.
|
|
Ombud
Junior Associate
Joined: Jan 14, 2013 23:21:04 GMT -5
Posts: 7,602
|
Post by Ombud on Aug 28, 2013 12:02:47 GMT -5
My comfort zone is 10% cash but it went up to 41% in May & June when stops crossed. And yes I consider the inherited 5% interest rate CDs as cash. Not that I'll sell those on the secondary market yet
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Aug 28, 2013 16:08:18 GMT -5
With the Middle East about to implode, and the USA about to attack Syria just for the heck of it, I would be cautious for another month.
|
|
clarkrl2
Administrator
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:01 GMT -5
Posts: 6,054
|
Post by clarkrl2 on Aug 28, 2013 18:24:41 GMT -5
Many stocks that were cheap in 2009 are no longer cheap. When the mantra for the large cap dividend stocks switched from "large cap quality names are cheap" to "where else are you going to put your money" was when they ceased to be cheap.
An example is PG which has had compound annual earnings per share growth of just 1.18% since 2008. The trailing twelve month PE is 20.73. That is not cheap.
In my opinion, many stocks which were being bought for their yield are becoming richly valued. That is not to say they can't become even more richly valued but sooner or later the earnings will need to catch up to the price or the price will fall back to a more appropriate level for the earnings.
The S&P500 according to Yahoo Finance has a PE of 15.67 and a PEG of 1.67. Again this is not cheap. It isn't grossly over valued but generally speaking a PEG over 2 would be overpriced while a PEG under 1 is cheap. Using yesterday's closing prices 8 of the 30 Dow Industrials had a PEG over 2. (XOM, MRK, CVX, PFE, JNJ, KO, BAC, T). Only IBM and INTC had a PEG below 1. The median PEG of the 29 companies for which a PEG was available (HPQ did not have a PEG) was 1.5.
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Aug 29, 2013 1:50:09 GMT -5
|
|
Ombud
Junior Associate
Joined: Jan 14, 2013 23:21:04 GMT -5
Posts: 7,602
|
Post by Ombud on Aug 29, 2013 13:20:39 GMT -5
Many stocks that were cheap in 2009 are no longer cheap. I do miss C @ $1 & SBUX @ $8. We'll look back on those as the good old days My screeners go for those with PEG under 1.6, paying out way less in dividends than earning (under 90% in REITs), 50 day crosses 200 day, volume over 200. But since it's both fundamental & technical, I use 2 screening tools. Would like to simplify to 1.
|
|