Observational statistics vs. real statistics

[thyme4change]

Only when you pull my finger.

[thyme4change]

Sweet mama pajama - of course that is what is the top of page 2.

[telephus44]

In middle school and elementary school, I didn't know anyone who was divorced or had divorced parents.  In high school there were maybe 2 or 3 kids that had divorced parents.  I met a LOT more in college.

Personally, I know a few people in our friends/family circle.  In DS#1's class there it seems like at least half the kids have divorced parents.  

[sheilaincali]

Different pockets of my world have vastly different divorce rates.

My family (including aunts, uncles, cousins) the only two divorces are mine and my brothers. I barely count mine since the first time I was only married for 4 months.
But of my nearly 30 cousins and 12 sets of aunts and uncles all are on their first marriage.

DH's family is full of divorce-  my MIL has been married 4 times, her husband has been married twice, both of his aunts are divorced and of his 4 cousins 3 of them are divorced.

None of my immediate friends are divorced (age range- 30-40 years old) and none of DS' closest friends have divorced parents.
Several kids in his grade have divorced parents but it just happens that all of his friends' parents are all still married. 

From my days in the Air Force I know quite a few divorced folks.  It seemed fairly common for  young airmen to get married, do their four years and then get divorced as soon as they left the military.   This was in the late 90's early 2000. 

So I don't know if it's just the circles I move in or what. If you combine my family and DH's we are running- 14% divorce rate for aunts/uncles and a 9% for the cousins.  And no one in our circle of friends is divorced.  But in the outside world I know several divorced people.

[thyme4change]

Does anyone think divorce is contagious?

It seems like it does go in circles.  It seems like one gal gets kicked to the curb because her husband wants a younger wife or has had enough of her baloney, or whatever.  And then, all of a sudden, all of her girlfriend's marriages start crumbling.  Maybe you watch one of your friends go out and build a new life, and she gets optimistic about her new life, and all of a sudden you start questioning the excitement of your marriage, and thinking you might to have your own space or whatever.  I've seen this happen in several groups.  Within 3 years, 70% of the marriages fail in one group of friends.  In fact, the couple who is having trouble near us - her sister is just getting back on her feet and getting excited about her new life as a divorcee.  And now, magically, her married sister is thinking that even though she has been a SAHM for 15 years, she would be happier without her husband.  

Anyone else have any observations like that?

[formerroomate99]

In my family lore, one divorce was blamed on the wife playing softball with a bunch of divorced women. 

Also in my family, the current generation has one divorce and 3 rather new marriages, the previous three have none, but in the 4th generation back, everybody got divorced. 

[cktc]

Jun 18, 2013 11:19:37 GMT -5 midjd said:

As an adult, if I had no idea of the actual divorce stats, and was just basing it on my peer group and people I know, I'd guess 60-70%. Most of my friends are in their late twenties and early thirties. About half are either on their second marriage (or single after a divorce) or married to someone who has been married before. 

This is how it is in my circles as well. I'd probably add another 10% to those figures for divorces I'm not aware of. Unless someone is going through a divorce, is a single parent, or the ex is still in the picture, people don't tend to bring up their failed marriages. As second marriages seem to last so much longer than the first, I've taken to just assuming the long term marriages have a divorcee in the mix.

[raeoflyte]

I've never heard that 2nd marriages last longer. I thought 2nd marriages had a lower percentage of "success", and that rate kept falling with each subsequent marriage.

[973beachbum]

Jun 19, 2013 22:41:45 GMT -5 raeoflyte said:

I've never heard that 2nd marriages last longer. I thought 2nd marriages had a lower percentage of "success", and that rate kept falling with each subsequent marriage.

That is what the stats say.  My observational stat is that the only people who say second marriages are more successful are in their second marriages.

[Bob Ross]

Jun 19, 2013 16:10:46 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Does anyone think divorce is contagious?

It seems like it does go in circles.  It seems like one gal gets kicked to the curb because her husband wants a younger wife or has had enough of her baloney, or whatever.  And then, all of a sudden, all of her girlfriend's marriages start crumbling.  Maybe you watch one of your friends go out and build a new life, and she gets optimistic about her new life, and all of a sudden you start questioning the excitement of your marriage, and thinking you might to have your own space or whatever.  I've seen this happen in several groups.  Within 3 years, 70% of the marriages fail in one group of friends.  In fact, the couple who is having trouble near us - her sister is just getting back on her feet and getting excited about her new life as a divorcee.  And now, magically, her married sister is thinking that even though she has been a SAHM for 15 years, she would be happier without her husband.  

Anyone else have any observations like that?

Sure.  But that's only because women are herd animals and when one does something, the rest are soon to follow.

[mollyc]

Because of personal observations, I'm always skeptical about divorce stats, current and past.

My paternal grandmother packed up Dad and his brother and went home to her parents.  Her brother's wife packed up their son and went home to her parents.  His common-law-wife was available because her husband up and left her and their sons.  I've never been able to find any indication that any of them divorced their first spouse.  Divorces were difficult and expensive in the 30s and 40s especially if you didn't know where your spouse had gone.  That's 6 people who may have never divorced so wouldn't count in the stats.

Grandma's cousin's husband (CH) owned the farm next to Grandma's 2nd husband (SGP).  CH was a violent man with his family.  My aunt tells that one day when she and SGP noticed cousin and kids hiding out from CH again, SGP had enough.  SGP told my aunt to go get his rifle.  SGP then proceeded to sneak up on CH.  SGP told CH that he thought CH was a deer and that they just avoided a terrible hunting accident.  SGP told CH that to avoid future accidents, it might be a good idea to leave the farm for good.  CH moved to town.  CH and cousin never divorced.  His liver took him out for her.

Neither my parents nor any of my dad's siblings have divorced although by YM's standards most of them should have at some point.  Two of my mom's brothers divorced.  One's wife kicked him out when their son was a toddler in the 1950s.  The other divorced after 30+ years of marriage.  Again, although her other brothers and none of her sisters divorced, that doesn't mean that had they been born in the 1950's or 60's instead of the 1910s and 20s, they would have stayed until death did they part.

One of my cousin's on my dad's side has divorced.  However, a few of them have had common-law relationships that broke up after many years.  Generally to date, once they are married, they stay together.

I'm not sure on my mom's side.  Most of those cousins are 15 to 30 years older than me and live far away.  Some of the decades long marriages are number 2 for them.  It's hard to know what is a marriage ending in divorce and what's a common law relationship breaking up.  I do know one of my American cousins has married the same woman 3 times because they have divorced twice so that really messes up the stats.

I'm DH's 3rd or 4th common-law wife (his stories have been piecemeal and kind of confusing so I'm not sure if I'm counting one twice).  He doesn't get counted in divorce statistics.

DD has had a fear of DH and I breaking up since she was about 4.  Not necessarily because of anything we've done.  She's just been aware that parents don't always stay together for that long.  I asked her last night how many of her classmates have divorced parents.  She named about a dozen whose parents are divorced or currently in the process.  That's about a third of the class.  That doesn't include her friends not in her class that have parents that are divorced or the one's whose parents just don't live together anymore.

[cktc]

I've never heard that 2nd marriages last longer. I thought 2nd marriages had a lower percentage of "success", and that rate kept falling with each subsequent marriage.

That was just my observation from all the long term second marriages in friends' families. Step parents seem to stick around longer than the actual parents. 

I tend to associate less with the deadbeats and serial cheaters that skew the statistics so I only see the positive side.

[Deleted]

Thyme - divorce is contagious. They've done studies.

Until this thread I've never thought of myself as the child of divorced parents but I guess I am. They separated when I was four and we stopped living with them.

Growing up I knew only a few kids whose parents were divorced. I'm in my early 30's and I'd say the divorce rate amongst my friends, family and acquaintances is less than 10%.