YTD gains in 401k

[Deleted]

My YTD gains are at 17.5%.    Are we going to see a market correction soon? 

[vonna]

May 16, 2013 7:22:38 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

My YTD gains are at 17.5%.    Are we going to see a market correction soon? 

YES!!

I mean, NO!!

I mean, Maybe.

I mean, Probably.

errr.... could you define "soon?" 

[Deleted]

exactly


trying to time the market is crazy


my brain tells me yes...we are due for a nice 10% correction


i have dry tinder ready for that occasion...dividends saved looking for a nice inroad prices


but earnings are good....did you see the Cisco blowout earnings


The interest rates are very low...and too many pundits are saying the market is overpriced


so it still seems like scared money...which means rally


when everyone buys back in, is when we will get the drop


until then...enjoy the ride up

[frankq]

I hope we get a bit of a pullback, only so I can get back in. I missed the last 400 points.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Only 330 after the news that the FED might scale back bond purchases this year.    It's just like we were talking about a couple months back Q, the FED is looking to scale back this year and I have a feeling that the reduced bond auctions is one way they are looking at doing that.  Some news today was that the housing market has recovered so well in certain areas that apparently From Brooklyn to California, a Housing Bubble Threat Grows.  I honestly believe that more QE was unnecessary last year, now that the housing market is really starting to inflate, the job market continues to slowly get better, and the with market around or above 15k, there is probably room to cut back on stimulus and I don't think the market has that priced in.

All the stores that come out about weak industrial production/manufacturing in the US are about how wall street is reading this as the FED will continue to prime the pump.  I think the FRB is looking at the higher tax receipts, the labour shortage in the housing market, the labour shortage in the oil patch, the labour shortage in the Medical industry, and the rising home prices; and they are saying that we need to start looking at getting out of the bond market a bit.  

What makes me think this? On a day like today(Thursady) with Wal-Mart missing earnings because of higher taxes, manufacturing contracting because of a slowing global economy, an increase in first time jobless claims, and the market moving higher because of hope for more "stimulus", a member at the FRB come out and says that we are looking at cutting back bond purchases because the economy is doing better.

Archie you asked if there is a correction coming up I would say there is always a correction coming up, or as I say a buying opportunity, its just a matter of when it happens.  This is why big cap dividend players are so important in ones portfolio, you can just keep adding good companies to your basket, as long as you have some cash on hand.

On that point, Q I apologize if you closed out your big cap players as well, I thought you were talking about closing out your riskier plays.  When it comes right down to it, big long term companies are fairly priced for future growth right now, that's why I was saying a while back to place your bets for DOW 20k on the NO MATTER WHAT thread. We just have to get through polarizing geo-political/socio economic issues mixed with an asset bubble in Asia. I think that there is false reality built into the market that the global economy will just keep growing from here. Having to get from where we are now, to where we have to be to actually grow as a global economy is something that could very well cause short term pain. To me this is really showing up when you Dig Into Earnings, under half of the S&P 500 companies have beat on revenues, and revenue growth is zero overall in the S&P 500.

Sorry for the rant, bottom line you gotta stay   and keep collecting those dividends so you're ready for when the inevitable happens. 

[frankq]

I still have T and some F but mainly I'm out. I'm back in at the first reasonable dip.

[ilovedolphins]

Mine is only 3.44%.  I am behind.