Are There HOT Real Estate Markets?

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Just curious if any of you see markets out there across the country that are taking off, or are ready to take off?

Are there trends in housing / real estate that any of you see an opportunity in?

[verrip1]

I wouldn't call it hot, but the SF Bay Area as a whole is showing price improvements. Some areas have stronger price growth while others are not recovering at all. There have always been hot and cold areas here. I suppose that's generally true everywhere, but it seems more striking here than what I read about re other parts of the country.

[itstippy]

Good farm land is hot in South Central Wisconsin. The "Farm Aid" days are over, at least for now. A 40 or 80 with good soil, drainage, and road access is Wisconsin's equivalent of a gold mine or oil well. You don't need equipment or outbuildings or a degree in agribusiness either. Just lease it to a nearby commercial farm and collect the money. If it grows corn or beans or alfalfa it grows money.

Retain hunting rights and set up some deer & turkey stands on the fence lines. Lease 'em out to urban sportsmen.

[texasredneck]

Itstippy how much per acre does good farm land rent for per year in Wisconsin?

[itstippy]

It's really spiking:
www.agweb.com/article/farmland_rent_suddenly_jumps__robust_grain_prices_have_fueled_sudden_boom_in_costs_per_acre/

From 1995-2007 a lot of smaller farmers (200-800 acres) quit farming themselves. They had the acreage surveyed and cut into smaller parcels. They sold off 2-4 acre hilltops & woodlots (plus driveway easements) as rural McMansion building sites and made huge (HUGE) piles of $. They kept the farmhouse and 2-4 acres around it for themselves to live on. This usually included some decent outbuildings - machine sheds and such. Then they sold off all the equipment and leased the remaining large fields to corporate agribusiness operations.

The old adage that farmers "live poor and die rich" (all capital tied up in land, no $ to spend on life's luxuries) is no longer true. These guys have piles of cash on hand and steady incomes from the leases. No operational cost overheads. They even rent out the outbuildings to city folks to store their boats & motorhomes in during the winter. Fat city! Nice new pickup trucks and store-bought underwear.

Now the leases are going through the roof and Farmer Jones has literally hit pay dirt. Kids that left the hard life of the farm to seek their fortunes in the Big City are suddenly extremely interested in running the Family Farm. 4:00AM milkings have been replaced by 4:00PM trips to the bank in town.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Feb 11, 2011 12:49:19 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Austin Texas is still remarkably strong considering what has been going on for the past three years. Even the middle high end (600,000 to 1mil) is very active. Prices are lower but remain high and strong. I would guess that Austin will really take off when the market comes back strong.

glad to see some real estate threads on this board.

Hmm, Texas is very business friendly, and Austin is a college town and host to SWSX every year-- liberal bastion in a conservative state. Could be attractive to California refugees? (Libs always flee the earth they scorch- Florida is full of people running from taxes in NY, NJ, MA, MD.)

So, I guess the question is...are more people moving IN than OUT? If so, what kind of people are relocating to Austin-- age, stage of life, education level demographic data interest me.

What's the primary economic driver in Austin? My perception is that it's college town, but I could be wrong.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Feb 11, 2011 13:02:36 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Oh and Paul

Hang around this board for a while and you might pick up some great investing viewpoints that a business person like you would appreciate. A lot more hard core than what you see on "your money". (not knocking "your money" I read it and post there once in a while)

I have a lot of respect for this board- that's why I posted this question here. Likewise, no disrespect for other boards- but as this is more or less a technical analysis applied to real estate-- I thought the best place to ask would be here.

[Deleted]

Dell computers is a big employer. I assume there are other knowledged-based employers which have spun off the University enviroment.

Two of DH's colleagues relocated from AZ to Austin. They enjoy it. As DH says "What's not to like? You've got good beer, nice weather and great music!"

Not sure you would be happy living there Paul. Too liberal!

[itstippy]

Feb 11, 2011 12:42:45 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Just curious if any of you see markets out there across the country that are taking off, or are ready to take off?

Are there trends in housing / real estate that any of you see an opportunity in?

Re Trends:
I've seen a trend of older people seeking to downsize to easy-to-maintain living arrangements where everything is on one floor. Wheelchair/walker accessible, wide doorways, no front steps (or a gradual ramp), washer/dryer on the first floor, etc. This type of housing is probably easy to find in retirement destinations like Florida but it's in scant supply in Midwestern cities and towns. It's got to be in excellent repair and it's got to be situated where grocery delivery and senior transport is offered.

Think like you're in your 80's. You don't care to pay property taxes or maintenance costs on amenities you have no use for (media room, basement rec room, full dining room, three car garage, koi pond, etc.). That's for the young folks with kids at home. You want something simple and comfortable where you can live on your own and take care of yourself for the next decade or more. You are fiercely independent. You don't really want to move (but you have to). You've been in your home town for 50+ years and you don't intend to leave it now. You just need something close that fits your new needs.

I wish I could find something like that for my folks. Pa can't do stairs at all anymore and Ma struggles with them. Their house was built in 1929 and the folks have had it since 1963. They raised all us kids there. They love their town and all their friends and memories. But the bedrooms and full bath are upstairs and the washer & dryer are in the basement. Many of their friends are facing the same problems. I've gotten to know WAY more about senior living arrangements in the past three years than I ever thought I would!!!! I've put up so many grab bars trying to keep that house livable for them the place looks like an old-fashioned playground "jungle gym". It's just not set up right for old folks.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Feb 12, 2011 10:41:03 GMT -5 @bonnap said:

Dell computers is a big employer. I assume there are other knowledged-based employers which have spun off the University enviroment.

Two of DH's colleagues relocated from AZ to Austin. They enjoy it. As DH says "What's not to like? You've got good beer, nice weather and great music!"

Not sure you would be happy living there Paul. Too liberal!

Liberals pay rent, too. I don't have to live there to invest there

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

I like great weather, beer, and music- though I prefer to be near the water (the big water). My dream is to sail the Caribbean on my own boat- leaving from my own slip on the Atlantic- tough to do that from Austin.

Though, from an investment standpoint, it's hard to ignore the geographic proximity-- to Corpus Christi and Galveston on the Gulf, Houston to the SE, Dallas / Ft Worth to the north, San Antonio to the SW. Austin is surrounded- a great crossroads of several cities, and resources.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

This is very interesting- it's the latest I could find (2009):
recenter.tamu.edu/mreports/2009/AustinRRock.pdf

The Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is one of the fastest growing areas in the country. The Austin MSA is made up of Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell Counties. The Austin MSA contains the cities of Austin, Cedar Park, Pflugerville, Leander, Round Rock, Georgetown, San Marcos, Lockhart, Bastrop, Taylor and Lakeway among others.

[glow=green,2,300]The Austin MSA has seen population grow from a little over 1 million in 1995 to an estimated almost 1.8 million in 2010. That is an increase of over 40%.[/glow]

The Austin MSA is home to the state capital, many high-tech businesses, the University of Texas, one of the nation's largest universities and more. Between the University of Texas and five other area colleges and universities, the Austin MSA has over 100,000 college students.

Major employers in the Austin MSA include the State of Texas, Dell Computer Corp., The University of Texas at Austin, The Austin Independent School District, The Federal Government, The City of Austin, Seton Healthcare Network, IBM Corp, Freescale Semiconductor and Saint Davide's Healthcare Partnership.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Now, I am in the process of researching how much the population has changed- and in what direction since 2007. At one point, Florida was growing at a rate of 1,000 people a day-- not a typo. So, if I quoted the growth in Florida from 1995 to 2010-- it wouldn't be wrong, but it would be a mistake to assume those numbers to be predictive because in the last three years, population has leveled off-- and last year, for the first time in 60 years, Florida actually lost a population.