The Asian Crisis

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

If the insane debt/casino mentality of the average Chinese investor wasn't going to lead to long term gains for American business, this would be insanely unnerving.. As far as the average Chinese investor goes though, this is insanely unnerving..

China's Stock-Market Bulls Are Back, But Where Are the Earnings?

Hao Hong has seen this movie before, and it didn’t end well for China’s stock-market bulls.

Five months after an equity boom built on weak corporate profits turned into a $5 trillion crash, a similar scenario is playing out in China today. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has surged 20 percent from its Aug. 26 low, despite third-quarter profits that trailed analyst estimates at 68 percent of companies in the index, the eighth straight quarter of disappointing results.

The absence of a rebound in earnings is one reason why Hong, the chief China strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co., says the latest surge in stocks is a “bear market rally.” Foreign investors seem to agree: they’ve been selling mainland equities through the Shanghai-Hong Kong exchange link for four straight weeks, cutting holdings by the most in two months on Thursday.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

A note to the Chinese investor: time to buy more stocks?!?

China Exports Drop for Fourth Month, Adding to Signs of Slowing

“Chinese exports continue to face structural headwinds due to weak demand in key markets” such as the European Union and Japan, said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Singapore. "Exports have also been impacted by the more recent growth slowdown in emerging markets, which had become fast-growing markets for Chinese exports in recent years.”

Germany's recent numbers are weak because of China, and China's numbers are weak because of the EU, and the EU is at their breaking point due to war. Feeding on each other.. Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Nov 8, 2015 14:40:12 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Germany's recent numbers are weak because of China, and China's numbers are weak because of the EU, and the EU is at their breaking point due to war. Feeding on each other.. Stay

As mentioned earlier on this thread, the real estate "rebound" in China is nothing but the biggest dead cat bounce in history. But, spend some more hundreds of billions to keep the illusion going China.

China Home-Price Recovery Slows in October Amid Supply Glut

China’s home-price recovery slowed in October, as a supply glut in less prosperous cities challenges the authorities’ efforts to revive the residential market with interest-rate cuts and easing of mortgage restrictions.

New-home prices increased in 27 cities, compared with 39 in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. Prices dropped in 33 cities, compared with 21 in September and were unchanged in 10.

The number of unsold new homes nationwide increased 14 percent to 437 million square meters (4.7 billion square feet) as of Oct. 31

This will without a doubt help their massive stock bubble as well.

Fear Spreads as China's Finance Firms Face Arrests

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

If China could have spent money building Africa and the Mid East.... The global Jihad: screwing China worse than anyone. Stay .

China’s ‘bad bank’ expects more debt to sour as economy slows

I'll say!

China banks turn blind eye to soaring overdue loans

Loans to borrowers that have missed a payment are growing three times faster than loans the banks recognise as non performing, according to their regulatory filings.

An increasingly large chunk of these overdue loans sit on the banks' books at their full value, even when payments have been missed for more than 90 days - the accepted international criteria for classifying loans as non-performing......

......At 18 listed Chinese banks, overdue loans that had not been written down jumped 57 percent to 645 billion yuan ($101 billion) in the first half of this year from the end of 2014, while NPLs increased 17 percent to 692 billion yuan, a UBS analysis of Chinese banks' balance sheet data show.

For loans overdue for more than three months, the increase was a hefty 166 percent from the end of 2014 to 149 billion yuan ($23.4 billion), a problem that analysts say is more widespread at mid-tier and smaller unlisted Chinese banks

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I'm going to call this; China's Great Wall of GDP Blocking Smog. It would have been the single biggest issue facing the Chinese Government at this point had Putin not screwed the world over. It's now second or third; with the war making it so they have no way out of their black hole of debt being mixed in there as well..

However, I'm pretty sure the biggest issue for the common Chinese person these days; Chinese cities choke on smog

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's truly amazing just how much Putin screwed the Chinese government’s plans.. They could have - more than likely - avoided a hard landing in their slow motion plane crash... However, they are telegraphing their next move, a.k.a. the end of Islam.

China's Fiscal Squeeze Challenges Xi Goal as Slowdown Grinds On

Land sales plummeted 32.2 percent in the first 10 months
Falling exports, producers prices show pressure on growth

China’s pared-back minimum growth rate may still be too high. So says a sizable minority of economists who flag the limitations of traditional policy tools.

Monetary easing, featuring six interest-rate cuts since late last year, has done little to spur an economy at risk of undershooting the 2015 growth target of 7 percent. The slowdown itself has made fiscal stimulus more difficult, through squeezing tax revenue and income from land sales by the local authorities who have long counted on them for spending money.

China to build first overseas military ‘base’ in East Africa

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Considering the research that has surfaced that sheds a light on who is buying the overwhelming majority of insanely expensive homes in Vancouver....

Hong Kong Property on the Brink as Developers Offer Stealthy Price Cuts

The last time Hong Kong saw such generous enticements was in 2003, when home prices were at the bottom of a six-year plunge, according to Nicole Wong, Hong Kong-based head of property research at CLSA Ltd. The decline in property prices at the time forced developers to write down the value of their projects and sell homes at a loss.

This time it’s different. Developers are avoiding price cuts that would signal a downturn has started, turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy. They’re also stepping into the role of lenders:

[tyfighter3]

Lenders of last resort. LOL Where have I heard that before.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I know, right!?! Pure insanity.... Well that and look out, Vlad.. He's gonna lose a tonne of land and resources(dumbass)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Had to laugh at this. Right up until the Fed increased rates a quarter point, China was starting to "stabilize." AKA, China needs more interests on their UST to help keep their ponzi going - just a little while longer.. hahah.

China Beige Book Shows ‘Disturbing’ Deterioration on All Fronts

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I want to say I'm surprised by this move, however, this time it's different.

China Signals More Stimulus After Top Meeting to Assess Economy

[Robert not Bobby]

In an area of the world where most countries still view each other as enemies and not neighbours, it's no stretch of the imagination to think that Asia is heading towards more than just a banking crisis, in fact, there is a very good possibility that sometime in the future we could be looking at a war of the Asians, with the Great Chinese Depression mixed in. Stay .
_______________________

Well said and almost well reasoned, but I think you are being rather alarmist. I don't see another Maoist cultural revolution brewing in China. I see workers who are hugely under paid (Apple, pay attention), who will slowly start to assert their rights for a living wage.

If Asia erupts in war, what we have seen coming out of the middle east will seem like a flea bite.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oh it's brewing, Chinese democracy is part of the Free Enterprise thread; rising wages, and pollution are two very large factors.

When I started this thread I was still betting that, Putin had a brain; so initially I was thinking that China was going to hit a brick wall as they tried to spend their way out of the black hole of debt they created.

When Putin invaded the Ukraine I was thinking that when China went into the Mid East their neighbors would start to attack them. However, recently China has extended an olive branch to their neighbors because all of Asia is now under threat from the global jihad that Putin's action allowed to spread globally.

You are 100% correct that the war that is breaking out will ultimately cause major, major problems for the Chinese(and global) economy, and it will ultimately make what it currently going on look like a flea bite. Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's like Galbraith said: financial genius is before the fall - even when they are railroaded and told they have no clue up until it happens.

Man Who Called China's Boom and Bust Now Warns of Crisis Risks

One of the few forecasters to predict both the start and peak of China’s equity boom, is now warning the nation will be buffeted by the same forces that caused financial crises around the world over the past four decades.

Hao Hong, chief China strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co. in Hong Kong, says a shortage of dollars was the common feature in the oil rout in the 1970s, Latin American debt turmoil in the 1980s, the Asian currencies collapse in 1997 and the global crisis in 2008. Next year will see Federal Reserve interest-rate increases, an improving U.S. current-account balance and a stronger greenback, putting strains on the most-leveraged parts of the world’s second-largest economy, he says.

"Historically, every time the U.S. current account improved, concurrent with dollar strength, some country somewhere in the world plunged into some sort of crisis," Hong said. “The pressure from a Fed tightening and thus a dollar liquidity shortage scenario will more likely show up” in Hong Kong property as well as China’s online lending and high-yield corporate bonds, he said in an interview.

Of course, Hong is overlooking that the war buildup is the worst thing for China's economic growth because of how it's affecting the EU. So while higher rates are going to be a problem for China's black hole, not being able to do anything to try and climb out of said hole is by far their biggest issue. Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

But, but China's economy was "stabilizing" during 2015...

South Korea exports fall in every month of 2015

South Korea's export growth engine sputtered in 2015, with shipments declining every month on weak global trade, lower oil prices and a slowdown in China. Full-year exports saw their sharpest decline in six years.

Despite a government outlook that Korean exports may gradually pick up again, the weakening exports are a worry for the fourth-largest economy in Asia, as shipments overseas still account for half its output growth.

The trade ministry in Seoul said Friday that Korea's exports declined 13.8% year over year in December, a 12th-consecutive monthly decline. The shrinking pace is much faster than markets' expectations. Imports also plunged a sharper-than-expected 19.2%.

For the full year of 2015, exports contracted 7.9%, the steepest decline since the global financial crisis hit Korea's trade in 2009 and the first annual contraction in three years.

The ministry attributed the latest slump in exports largely to lower crude prices that ate into the export values of Korean oil-refinery goods and petrochemical products, which accounted for 64% of the decline in Korean exports in 2015.

Sluggish global trade and a slowdown in other emerging economies--especially China, which takes in one-quarter of Korea's total shipments overseas--were also undermining trade, the ministry said. Exports to China dropped 5.6% year over year in 2015.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Per post #245 aka the slow motion plane crash that we have been watching unfold....

Asian markets slide on fears of stalling Chinese economy

Is, stalling? How about? 2015: The Year China's Economy Stalled.

[tyfighter3]

I don't think 2016 is going to be much better for them either. lol

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

LOL...But, but, but... China's economic story is a miracle! They figured out how to push on a string... well according to the bulls in China's shop anyway..

[bimetalaupt]

Jan 4, 2016 11:51:01 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

I don't think 2016 is going to be much better for them either. lol

T3,
From my point of view we will be reviving more shares per $$$$$$ reinvested :so our net worth in 50 years will be greater.
Just a thought,
Bruce

Investors are worrying too much about China
finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-are-worrying-too-much-about-china-182712124.html#https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-are-worrying-too-much-about-china-182712124.html#
If you really wanted a reason to sell stocks, China gave you one on the first trading day of 2016. But jumpy investors might be looking too hard for bad news.
Related Stories

China's Economy: What to Expect in 2016 Bloomberg
Sharp drop halts stock trading in mainland China MarketWatch
Dow kicks off 2016 with a stock-market rout MarketWatch
Credit Cards Now Offer 0% Intro APR Through 2017 CompareCards.com Sponsored 

A gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity dropped slightly in December, which financial markets interpreted as a calamity. Stocks plunged across China Monday, triggering newly installed “circuit breakers” meant to halt trading during violent selloffs. Traders described the rout using words such as “panic,” “stampede” and “unprecedented.” And with a temporary lockup on selling by some holders about to expire, the China wipeout could get worse before it gets better.

So China must be plunging into a recession, right? Or collapsing like a house of chopsticks? Actually, no. “The underlying problems are there,” says economist Nicholas Lardy of the Petersen Institute for International Economics. “But I don’t think it’s a cause for as much alarm as some people are saying.”

Traders pay close attention to China’s industrial sector because that’s where the data is. Reports on industrial output come out monthly and include detailed numbers on many different sectors. That’s in line with China’s modern history as “the world’s factory” -- a nation that rose to prominence by building stuff mostly exported to other nations.

But China has been evolving into a consumer economy, more like the United States, that depends increasingly on consumer spending by its own citizens who are growing wealthier. China’s national income per capita, at about $13,000, is still about one-fourth that of the U.S., according to the World Bank. But the bank now classifies China as an upper-middle-income country, comparable with Malaysia, South Africa and Turkey. The U.S. and western Europe are just one tier higher.

As consumers become more affluent, they spend more on services like tourism, entertainment and education, which is what has been happening in China. The service sector now accounts for about half of Chinese GDP, while industrial activity accounts for just one-third. Y

PS: Happy New Year!!
et China’s service sector is relatively new and still gets less attention than manufacturing. Rather than monthly government reports, there are quarterly ones, broken down into just five main categories.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

China’s service sector is relatively new and still gets less attention than manufacturing. Rather than monthly government reports, there are quarterly ones, broken down into just five main categories.

Yep! And if I wasn't for Putin, this thread - ymam.proboards.com/thread/19874/nas-internal-growth-next-stimulus - would be current. Putin has screwed China more than anyone, which is why China will sack Russia without even firing a shot.

[flow5]

China started the 2015 sell-off. Same thing's happening now.  Soon, the 4th qtr.'s bad news will become old news.  

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's going to be interesting to see what happens Friday and into next week. I guess Friday is the end of the six month memorandum on selling by institutions...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Yeah....

China Halts Stock Trading After 7% Rout Triggers Circuit Breaker

Chinese stock exchanges closed early for the second time this week after the CSI 300 Index plunged more than 7 percent.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well, after being opened for a whopping 30 mins yesterday the commies have decided to scrap their market haulting circut breakers, and extend the ban on large institutions selling off chunks of stock. Lets not forget this market boom was engineering designed to help the Chinese people feel "richer" because their housing market is falling apart. Nice try commies, nice try; but you can't beat gravity.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As China State Funds Said to Buy More Shares After $1 Trillion Rout, the Commies are learning the hard what we have been trying to teach around here. They either burn off their not so big reserves now, or use them after the fact...

China Finds $3 Trillion Just Doesn't Pack the Punch It Used To

data point to an alarming burn rate of dollars at the People’s Bank of China. The nation’s stockpile of foreign exchange reserves plunged by $513 billion, or 13.4 percent, in 2015

The reason this burn is so bad? Again, as we have been saying: Be Scared of China's Debt, Not Its Stocks

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Desperation reeks..

China overfulfills affordable housing target

China completed 7.72 million units of affordable housing in urban areas in 2015, beating the annual target of 4.8 million, official data have shown.

Are Collapsing Chinese Equities Just the Tip of the Iceberg?
Right now, it is difficult to tell the difference between the dog and the tail. Was it China’s overinvestment in the manufacturing and infrastructure that did this? Or was it the massive over-allocation to resource extraction that did this? It really doesn’t matter at this point, other than to realize this is unfolding at a rather inopportune time for global markets....

......And that is exactly the main point. The timing couldn’t have been much worse.

It’s not just about China: Company profits to drop — again

Tumult in China triggered the worst opening week for U.S. stocks in history, and this week investors could get plenty more to worry about.

Profits are expected to drop at U.S. companies.

Again.

Earnings for companies in the Standard and Poor’s 500 index are forecast to drop for the second straight quarter, a rare occurrence outside a recession. Despite a rebounding jobs market, the U.S. did not grow fast enough to boost profits, and once surging developing economies that helped lift foreign sales slowed dramatically....

....a 1.4 percent drop in the July-September quarter. Revenues are forecast to fall for a fourth quarter in row.

This wasn’t supposed to happen.

A year ago the average view of financial analysts who follow the stock market said earnings for the October-December quarter would jump 12 percent, and urged investors to buy accordingly.

Analysts on Wall Street are a notoriously bullish bunch, but you can almost understand their enthusiasm. Since the financial crisis, U.S. companies have managed to squeeze profits out of a slow-growing domestic economy. They slashed costs, often through massive layoffs, and restructured their businesses to operate faster and smarter.

Yet this analyst has been saying that this Asian Crisis that is brewing(weakness), will lead to major Earnings issues as a big portion of big companies make lots of cash overseas. Stay .

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The cash burn in China now is of absolutely historic purportions..

China's banks break lending record as troubled firms borrow more
Wednesday, December 23, 2015

China's banks extended RMB11.1 trillion (US$169.8 billion) in new loans for the January-November period this year, already topping last year's total lending,

The chart below truly illustrates where we are at in this cycle.

China $885 Billion Bank Funding Rush Shows Caution Over Outflows

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Cause and effect(outcome)

A Towering Chinese Debt Mountain Looms Behind Market Gyrations

Lost in all the Chinese stock and currency market gyrations, policy missteps and mixed data is this economic reality: The government is constrained by a credit bubble that has ballooned to $28 trillion in an economy growing at its slowest pace in 25 years....

......China’s reliance on credit-fueled growth in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis that resulted in one of the biggest debt expansions in recent history, and today’s hangover.

"China is nowhere close to reining in its debt problems," said Charlene Chu, the former Fitch Ratings Ltd. analyst known for her warnings over China’s debt

Not close to reining in the problem if you ignore the war... However, the Chinese "may" send troops into the Mid East according to a new report and they are laying all the groundwork as to why.... Hundreds Maybe Thousands of Chinese Uighurs Fighting in Syria warns Beijing Expert

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

After 46 months straight of PPI deflation, the Chinese can't even try to lie about their 7% growth anymore. Well, the 6.8 number is also crap.. But at least they are starting to see saving face - in this case - will end up being their undoing. China GDP Slows to Weakest Since 2009 on Manufacturing Slide

For example... Chinese Shipyards See New Orders Fall by Almost Half in 2015

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

A bit of reading for those that are interested..

-IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 3.4% in Year of ‘Great Challenges’
-China Is Getting Less and Less Bang for Its Credit Buck
-Europe's Refugee Dilemma Eclipses Greek Crisis, Austria Says