Job Hunt Question

[shanendoah]

I give myself a 50/50 chance of still having my job come end of Q1 2013. We just had a round of layoffs in which both my admin and my boss were let go. While there will be no more layoffs this year, everyone expects more come January.
Given that there is a lot of reorg-ing going on at my company and in our department in specific, I figure it's even money I will be laid off or asked to take on duties for other departments.
Because of this, I am starting to look at jobs. I am not applying for anything and everything. I still have a job, and if I am laid off, will have a package that gives me 24 weeks paid plus the 5 weeks PTO I have banked (so 6-7 months paid). My biggest problem is that I don't have a full 3 years in my current position. I had intended to start keeping an eye out for new opportunities this summer, when I reached my 3 year mark, but now I'm looking about 8 months earlier than I'd planned.
At a full 3 years in a position, I am comfortable looking at only positions that would be a step up from where I am, but at a little less than 2.5 years (especially since I have not yet been laid off, nor do I want to mention my concerns about being laid off), I'm afraid that those hiring for higher level positions than my current one won't feel I have the experience necessary.
At the same time, I don't want to be locked into a manager level role for the next 3 years. (And yes, I know I wouldn't necessarily be locked in, but my own ethic generally keeps me from applying for new positions before 3 years in a job.)
I 'm being selective about which jobs I apply to period. But my question is, should I only apply for jobs that are a step up knowing I may not have the management experience they are looking for, or should I be open to lateral job moves even though I don't know for certain that I will lose my job?

[Tennesseer]

Out of curiosity, during your 2 1/2 years with your current employer have you had a promotion and a salary increase associated with a promotion?

If you have, that would look good on a resume as it shows growth and potential to a future employer. There is nothing wrong with window shopping for future jobs-especially if there's potential for an upcoming layoff.

Good luck.

[Peace77]

There is nothing magical about 3 years with an employer. Banks want to see 2 years of employment for a mortgage and you have more than that. Your next employer will understand moving jobs after a round of lay-offs and uncertainty for the future.

I would look and apply for any job that you are interested in. It does not have to be a promotion.

[midjd]

I would err on the side of applying for more jobs... if you don't think it would be a good fit, you can always turn it down.

[shanendoah]

Tennesseer: I've actually been with my employer for 8 years, only in my current position for 2.5 years. Yes, I have gotten raises, but those are annual with a performance component.

[alabamagal]

I was in a similar position to you, except that my employer announced that they would be closing the entire site, initially was supposed to be ~6 months after the announcement, but it eventually dragged out to ~16 months. But I had in 20 years and would get severance pay of 6 months (~$65k), then they started offering incentive bonuses to stay (another $15k or so), also paid helth insurance for a year and a few other perks. So switching jobs on my timeline would have resulted in ~$80k in lost salary. I chose to hang on until the end, didn't really do any serious job searching. You have a similar problem in that you would lose ~6 months pay if you switch jobs.

The problems with doing that is that you are betting that you can find a new job while you are still getting paid from your previous employer. A lot would depend on how confident you are that you will find a new job (or in your area if you are not moving) in your field in that time frame.

My answer would be to be looking for jobs, but only if they are better than your current position.

[shanendoah]

Georgia: The ideal would obviously be to be able to get the severance package and start a new job a month or so after I got laid off. We could survive more than 6 months though, between putting my SLs in forbearance, taking SLs out for DH's school (instead of cash flowing), our savings, and the fact that I could draw unemployment while getting severance.
At the same time, I am the sole earner for our family and we are in the adoption process. So the risk of not being able to find a job in that 6 months somewhat outweighs the reward of getting severance.
I am, for the most part, confident I could get a new job in my field, paying what I make now, during that 6 months. But I've also lived through the last few years with a spouse who ended up going back to school because a new job couldn't be found, so I know nothing is definitive.
It is a balancing act.

That said, I had a meeting with our VP today. I mentioned my 50/50 theory, to which her reaction was that I am in the budget through 2013, and also asking about capacity. So for now, it looks as though the scales have tipped, to say 25% chance of lay off, 75% chance of taking on more work.
I may still apply to a few select jobs here and there, but since it looks like I've got at least another year with my company, I will likely only apply for those that are a step up.

[Deleted]

Good News & Good Luck with your search. Much easier to find a job when you have a job.

Have you had success with changing jobs to move up? I typically hire across & after the person shows that they know their stuff, then move them up.

[shanendoah]

This last time, yes. I went from an Analyst I to a Manager- but I also got my MBA while I was an analyst and I stayed within the company (and in fact, went back to the department I was originally hired into).