The Electoral College vote total

[Gardening Grandma]

Oct 30, 2012 13:41:52 GMT -5 deziloooooo said:

Oct 30, 2012 7:06:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i like your totals, but i don't see any way Obama gets 298. i think that 294 is a possibility tho.

i also think you are underestimating his vote share. i suspect he will get very close to 50%

270 would do it for me..anything more , just the iceing on the cake.

[rockon]

My prediction: Whoever wins will claim it was a landslide, even though their actual margin of victory will be some fraction of a percent of the total population and we will remain a very divided country for at least another four years.

[EVT1]

Oct 30, 2012 15:50:50 GMT -5 rockon said:

My prediction: Whoever wins will claim it was a landslide, even though their actual margin of victory will be some fraction of a percent of the total population and we will remain a very divided country for at least another four years.

So will some posters- from the other thread, so before the vote:

Landslide/Mandate= ? electoral votes, ? % popular vote
Solid win= " "
Squeaker= " "

[djAdvocate]

i am seeing a small amount of gain in the national polls for Romney this week, as the last of the undecideds move his way. the state polling is pretty flat, except for that Rasmussen poll in Ohio, and the PPP poll in Florida- both of which are outliers. it will take a few more that look just like them to indicate anything startling.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 17, 2012 11:40:05 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the following are Obama:Romney:Tied

277:239:22 EV.com
271:206:61 HP.com
287:251 538.11.6
283:255 538.10.17

djpolldancer current estimate = 281:257

update: 2 weeks later.......

280:235:23 EV.com
253:206:79 HP.com
294:244 538

djpolldancer current estimate = 294:244

i stand by the earlier prediction that if Romney wins Ohio, he wins the election. this is really close.

edit: again- Romney's difficulty is moving the swing states firmly into his column. Paul is convinced that this will happen on election day, but there is no precedent for this. typically, the state polling that happens just before election reflects what happens on election day, and that state polling shows him trailing in the majority of the swing states (exceptions being NC and FL). he particularly has a LOT of ground to make up in the rust belt. i really don't think he has it in him, but i am prepared to be surprised.

i should add one more thing: this election is a pollwatcher's dream come true. there are roughly twice as many polls as any other election to date. so, if the predictions are wrong, the models will be tightened up, and the mistakes will not be repeated. i doubt that the polls are in error this time, given their strong track record, but as Paul would say, it might happen.

[Value Buy]

Oct 30, 2012 13:21:08 GMT -5 @anne81 said:

Electoral College Obama 298, Romney 240
Popular Vote Romney 49.8, Obama 48.9

Please don't let that happen. The last thing we need is another very divisive election. Unless that leads to electoral votes being apportioned based on the popular vote - which might actually make a third party viable!

FIRST THING, I do not accept your EC vote total.
That said, if Obama did garner the EC vote, and lost the popular vote, I will be the first person to accept the result.

This is a Constitutional issue.
Whoever wins the EC vote is the President.
Period.

Although if it did happen, it would be nice for Obama to say, the people voted for Mitt. Let him have it.

[Value Buy]

Pennsylvania is starting to lean Mitt.

[Deleted]

Because someone in Ohio told you so ?

[Tennesseer]

Nov 1, 2012 8:42:58 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Oct 30, 2012 13:21:08 GMT -5 @anne81 said:

Electoral College Obama 298, Romney 240
Popular Vote Romney 49.8, Obama 48.9

Please don't let that happen. The last thing we need is another very divisive election. Unless that leads to electoral votes being apportioned based on the popular vote - which might actually make a third party viable!

FIRST THING, I do not accept your EC vote total.
That said, if Obama did garner the EC vote, and lost the popular vote, I will be the first person to accept the result.

This is a Constitutional issue.
Whoever wins the EC vote is the President.
Period.


Although if it did happen, it would be nice for Obama to say, the people voted for Mitt. Let him have it.

In modern times, that would have required Bush 2000 to set the courtesy precedent. But Bush wasn't courteous.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 1, 2012 8:43:32 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Pennsylvania is starting to lean Mitt.

rubbish.

[Value Buy]

I updated my prediction to 289 EC votes for Romney.

[usaone]

How do you get Mitt to 289?

[Gardening Grandma]

Nov 1, 2012 17:47:54 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Nov 1, 2012 8:43:32 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Pennsylvania is starting to lean Mitt.

rubbish.

PA is fools gold for Republicans. Every election they think they have a chance, and every election, they lose it.

[mmhmm]

Nov 4, 2012 11:52:54 GMT -5 usaone said:

How do you get Mitt to 289?

You gaze skyward, pick an especially bright star, and make a wish.

[Tennesseer]

Nov 4, 2012 19:07:47 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Nov 4, 2012 11:52:54 GMT -5 usaone said:

How do you get Mitt to 289?

You gaze skyward, pick an especially bright star, and make a wish.

Galaxy 289



www.gemini.edu/science/galaxy289.html

[Value Buy]

My final count for Romney is 285 electoral votes.
Ohio and Colorado will be red tomorrow.

Everyone put their numbers down, and we will see who knows what they are talking about

[Gardening Grandma]

Obama is 3.1 ahead of Romney in Colorado and 2.4 in Ohio.

I'll go with Obama 314: Romney 224

[usaone]

Nate Silver has it as a 7% chance of a Republican win.

[Value Buy]

Nate Silver does not elect the President.

[usaone]

No, but his data shows that the polls would have to be off by a huge, never before seen amount for us to have any kind of chance.

[usaone]

If Sarah Palin and her HUGE crazy crowds couldn't get us to vote, I don't see Mitt doing it.
Ryan has been a dud.

[Deleted]

Nov 6, 2012 7:28:08 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

I'm sticking with Obama 290. Even though both Florida and Virginia are in play and could also go his way.

Me too... Solid at 290-248. (Could go 303-235... But hey, he only needs 270...)

[Waffle]

On October 26, I predicted Obama 303 Romney 235. I'll stick with that.

[Value Buy]

Nov 6, 2012 7:51:55 GMT -5 oped said:

Nov 6, 2012 7:28:08 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

I'm sticking with Obama 290. Even though both Florida and Virginia are in play and could also go his way.

Me too... Solid at 290-248. (Could go 303-235... But hey, he only needs 270...)

You do realize, you could say the same thing about Romney

[Deleted]

Yes, but he's only going to get like 235-248

[Value Buy]

I feel so "out of sorts" this morning.
Everyone says it is over and the President has it all wrapped up.
Why do I still have this fire in my gut telling me, they are wrong?
Was it the homemade chili we had last night? No.
In 2008, we all knew it was going to be Obama, even Fox News grudgingly admitted it.

It could be a very long night.
I still believe it is Romney/Ryan tonight.

[sgtjer]

Bronco Bamma gets 285 electoral votes tonite.

Mebbe more tomorrow ....

We should know by 1/20/13 anyway.

[tallguy]

Oct 17, 2012 11:24:42 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Oct 17, 2012 10:58:23 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I owe djpolldancer an apology at this point.
Under normal circumstances I would have started a thread by now, on the actual totals the contestants would accumulate on election night.
As of today, I am still not sure where the count will wind up.
I do expect Romney to win, but too many states still in play to name an accurate number at this point.

Maybe by Monday

I'll start- Romney Obama by 320 +

My prediction at this point is that it's going to be a blowout.

Fixed.

[tallguy]

Oct 19, 2012 23:51:01 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

It's no secret at this point that I am predicting a blowout. America is about to send Obama Romney packing. And unfortunately for our Democrat Republican friends, it's not going to be close enough to make stealing the election a practical option. It's over.

Fixed.

[mmhmm]

Nov 6, 2012 9:41:11 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I feel so "out of sorts" this morning.
Everyone says it is over and the President has it all wrapped up.
Why do I still have this fire in my gut telling me, they are wrong?
Was it the homemade chili we had last night? No.
In 2008, we all knew it was going to be Obama, even Fox News grudgingly admitted it.

It could be a very long night.
I still believe it is Romney/Ryan tonight.

Musta been the chili, after all.