AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 4, 2012 19:15:21 GMT -5
It's not close. If it is close, Obama loses, and by a large margin. If Obama really is ahead, he may win by a whisker. But if it is truly close, it will not finish close. Romney will win big.
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 4, 2012 19:41:54 GMT -5
The numbers don't lie. Every poll is still Democrat +7 to +9. That just has no relationship to reality. Reality is GOP +1.
Obama is supposed to have an early vote lead following the 2008 model the polls are using to weight their results, and Gallup just put that to rest showing a Romney early vote double digit lead. That leaves Obama with too big a hole to fill. A hole that by conventional wisdom and poll and punditry assumptions, Romney should be worried about filling.
Then there are the intangibles. The objective (and attentive) observers can see Obama's anger, and desperation. The petty name calling, the 'revenge' comment and other outbursts, the lashing out. All the signs are there. And incumbent POTUS begging people to go vote? not a sign of a winner.
This is going to be a blowout. The polls no longer care about accuracy. The have too much invested in Obama. They are in full blown conservative voter suppression mode, now. And it's not going to work.
|
|
cereb
Senior Member
Joined: Mar 23, 2011 0:33:47 GMT -5
Posts: 3,904
|
Post by cereb on Nov 4, 2012 19:46:00 GMT -5
The numbers don't lie. Every poll is still Democrat +7 to +9. That just has no relationship to reality. Reality is GOP +1. Obama is supposed to have an early vote lead following the 2008 model the polls are using to weight their results, and Gallup just put that to rest showing a Romney early vote double digit lead. That leaves Obama with too big a hole to fill. A hole that by conventional wisdom and poll and punditry assumptions, Romney should be worried about filling. Then there are the intangibles. The objective (and attentive) observers can see Obama's anger, and desperation. The petty name calling, the 'revenge' comment and other outbursts, the lashing out. All the signs are there. And incumbent POTUS begging people to go vote? not a sign of a winner. This is going to be a blowout. The polls no longer care about accuracy. The have too much invested in Obama. They are in full blown conservative voter suppression mode, now. And it's not going to work. You will be so much fun on Wednesday.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 38,221
|
Post by billisonboard on Nov 4, 2012 19:46:28 GMT -5
It's not close. If it is close, Obama loses, and by a large margin. If Obama really is ahead, he may win by a whisker. But if it is truly close, it will not finish close. Romney will win big. I like this one, Virgil.
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 4, 2012 19:58:24 GMT -5
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 4, 2012 20:05:49 GMT -5
30,000 at Romney's Pennsylvania rally.
|
|
swamp
Community Leader
THEY’RE EATING THE DOGS!!!!!!!
Joined: Dec 19, 2010 16:03:22 GMT -5
Posts: 45,617
|
Post by swamp on Nov 4, 2012 20:08:11 GMT -5
I want to know why Paul is soooooooo sure about what's going to happen. And if he can predict the future, why waste the gift on crap like predicting a presidential race? Why not predict stock prices?
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 4, 2012 20:08:34 GMT -5
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 4, 2012 20:10:32 GMT -5
I had 200 at my anniversary party. I put 400 real estate investors in a room every month.
|
|
EVT1
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 30, 2010 16:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 8,596
|
Post by EVT1 on Nov 4, 2012 20:12:13 GMT -5
|
|
swamp
Community Leader
THEY’RE EATING THE DOGS!!!!!!!
Joined: Dec 19, 2010 16:03:22 GMT -5
Posts: 45,617
|
Post by swamp on Nov 4, 2012 20:14:37 GMT -5
I had 200 at my anniversary party. I put 400 real estate investors in a room every month. You feed them. Take away the food and see what happens.
|
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Nov 4, 2012 20:18:50 GMT -5
30,000 at Romney's Pennsylvania rally. Palins crowds were bigger.
|
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Nov 4, 2012 20:23:21 GMT -5
Paul I live in Pa. That was held 30 minutes from me. There were 5,500 people there.
|
|
swamp
Community Leader
THEY’RE EATING THE DOGS!!!!!!!
Joined: Dec 19, 2010 16:03:22 GMT -5
Posts: 45,617
|
Post by swamp on Nov 4, 2012 20:24:38 GMT -5
Paul I live in Pa. That was held 30 minutes from me. There were 5,500 people there. Republican math: 30,0000 = 5,500.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 38,221
|
Post by billisonboard on Nov 4, 2012 22:08:12 GMT -5
|
|
mmhmm
Administrator
It's a great pity the right of free speech isn't based on the obligation to say something sensible.
Joined: Dec 25, 2010 18:13:34 GMT -5
Posts: 31,770
Today's Mood: Saddened by Events
Location: Memory Lane
Favorite Drink: Water
|
Post by mmhmm on Nov 4, 2012 22:56:24 GMT -5
Really? What source are you reading? The Martian Times?
Latest Polls
POLLSTER DATES POP. OBAMA ROMNEY UNDECIDED MARGIN CNN NEW! 11/2 - 11/4 693 LV 49 49 2 - PPP (D-Americans United for Change) NEW! 11/2 - 11/4 1,200 LV 50 48 3 Obama +2 Ipsos/Reuters (Web) NEW! 10/31 - 11/4 3,805 LV 48 47 3 Obama +1 UPI/CVOTER NEW! 11/3 - 11/3 1,074 LV 49 48 - Obama +1 NBC/WSJ NEW! 11/1 - 11/3 1,475 LV 48 47 3 Obama +1 JZ Analytics/Newsmax NEW! 11/1 - 11/3 1,011 LV 47 47 6 - Rasmussen NEW! 11/1 - 11/3 1,500 LV 49 49 - - Pew NEW! 10/31 - 11/3 2,709 LV 48 45 - Obama +3 ABC/Post NEW! 10/31 - 11/3 2,069 LV 49 48 2 Obama +1 YouGov NEW! 10/31 - 11/3 36,472 LV 49 47 3 Obama +2
|
|
mmhmm
Administrator
It's a great pity the right of free speech isn't based on the obligation to say something sensible.
Joined: Dec 25, 2010 18:13:34 GMT -5
Posts: 31,770
Today's Mood: Saddened by Events
Location: Memory Lane
Favorite Drink: Water
|
Post by mmhmm on Nov 4, 2012 22:57:45 GMT -5
Paul I live in Pa. That was held 30 minutes from me. There were 5,500 people there. ROFL. Not a gross exaggeration, or anything like that. Probably just a typo.
|
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Nov 4, 2012 22:59:43 GMT -5
Why are we just hearing about this supposed flawed metric now?? Mitt has been losing for most of this election cycle.
All of a sudden with a couple days left and the election looking bleak, the polls are wrong??
Again it sounds like 2008.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,469
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2012 5:02:18 GMT -5
It's not close. If it is close, Obama loses, and by a large margin. If Obama really is ahead, he may win by a whisker. But if it is truly close, it will not finish close. Romney will win big. it is exactly the opposite of this. if Romney is ahead, it will be close. if Obama is ahead, and i think he is, Romney will lose by a wide margin.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,469
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2012 5:06:07 GMT -5
The numbers don't lie. Every poll is still Democrat +7 to +9. no polls say that. you know that, of course.That just has no relationship to reality. Reality is GOP +1. no, the reality is that the GOP trails by 1-2%. if you look back through the last 1000 or so posts on this subject, this has been pretty much the case for the last year. the only exceptions were last October and this October, when the polls were nearly even.Obama is supposed to have an early vote lead following the 2008 model the polls are using to weight their results, and Gallup just put that to rest showing a Romney early vote double digit lead. That leaves Obama with too big a hole to fill. A hole that by conventional wisdom and poll and punditry assumptions, Romney should be worried about filling. Then there are the intangibles. The objective (and attentive) observers can see Obama's anger, and desperation. The petty name calling, the 'revenge' comment and other outbursts, the lashing out. All the signs are there. And incumbent POTUS begging people to go vote? not a sign of a winner. This is going to be a blowout. The polls no longer care about accuracy. The have too much invested in Obama. They are in full blown conservative voter suppression mode, now. And it's not going to work. there is no way this is going to be a blowout. i give that 1:100 odds. Romney has 0% chance of topping Obama by 100 or more EV. Obama has about a 5% chance of doing so to Romney. but that is where the good news ends for Romney.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,469
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2012 5:07:23 GMT -5
If romney wins this country and its people loses big time. unless you like betting longshots (i have nothing against it, in principle), i wouldn't put a dime on Romney.
|
|
iono1
Familiar Member
Joined: Jan 6, 2011 8:58:24 GMT -5
Posts: 570
|
Post by iono1 on Nov 5, 2012 7:58:27 GMT -5
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Nov 5, 2012 9:17:43 GMT -5
Saturday, Biden did not even draw a thousand people to an event. Granted it is Biden, but if you could not get a thousand partisan Democrats to show, something is wrong. Very wrong.
|
|
Gardening Grandma
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:39:46 GMT -5
Posts: 17,962
|
Post by Gardening Grandma on Nov 5, 2012 10:40:12 GMT -5
PA will go for Obama. Doesn't matter how many people were held at one rally. Other Romney events have been photoshopped to make it look like there more people...
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 64,475
|
Post by Tennesseer on Nov 5, 2012 10:43:03 GMT -5
PA will go for Obama. Doesn't matter how many people were held at one rally. Other Romney events have been photoshopped to make it look like there more people... PSPBP?
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Nov 5, 2012 23:36:04 GMT -5
Mittmentumn kicks in officially in less than 30 minutes with New Hampshire voting!
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 64,475
|
Post by Tennesseer on Nov 5, 2012 23:42:13 GMT -5
As Dixville Notch goes, so goes the nation?
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Nov 5, 2012 23:44:05 GMT -5
As Dixville Notch goes, so goes the nation? Don't they usually go democratic?
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 64,475
|
Post by Tennesseer on Nov 5, 2012 23:49:50 GMT -5
As Dixville Notch goes, so goes the nation? Don't they usually go democratic? VB-I used to live in New Hampshire and I don't remember. Dixville Notch is way up there and pretty isolated. I think they're a space alien base. Kind of like Area 51.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Nov 5, 2012 23:53:42 GMT -5
New Hampshire-I thought it was supposed to go Obama, but now I see they are saying it's either's to win or lose. This race is over. Virgil, when do I get the karmas?
|
|