What are you doing today?

[kadee79]

Is anyone doing any buying today? Find any bargains out there?

[rovo]

There are huge bargains out there today. The question is ..... will they be bigger bargains tomorrow?

[clarkrl2]

I sold Mar 2012 110 calls on TLT and bought Mar 2012 115 calls. The premium was $1 on a $5 spread. I intend to eventually replace my position in TBT with these bear call spreads. I have similar order in for Jan 2012 and Jan 2013.

[yclept]

If the vix gets over 30, I may temporarily lighten up on the negatively biased ETFs and take some quick-kill shots long at stocks with RSI(14) less than 20. This would be today's list for further analysis, but the vix has not gotten over 30, so this list could easily change by the time the vix does get there (assuming it does).


ATSG BAK FRO GTIV KRA NM NOC SFL TPC UFS

My actual trades today are detailed on the "Yclept's trades" thread.

[kadee79]

I've done a couple of trades. I'll probably be sorry tomorrow but that is life!

And just so we all know...I'm a flat out straight trader cause I haven't studied all that other stuff! I'm getting too old to try to learn all that!
But at least my little account is bigger than when I started!

[yclept]

$vix just topped 30, and I probably ought to buy some of the ones listed above. But I'm going to wait to see what tomorrow brings. If this "little tumble" continues tomorrow then I'll keep waiting before looking for some quick kill longs. I'd just as soon not be holding much in the way of long positions over the weekend.

Though I'm sure everyone interested is hearing about today's losses on the indices, a lot of working stiffs only have time to really plan their moves on the weekend (I was somewhat that way before I retired) and might decide to bail-out, in which case Monday could be a very bad day for having long positions. Even then, the kind of dust a week like this stirs up takes at least days to settle. If it's coming time to take some shots at long positions, I have little fear that they will run away from me.

[Bluerobin]

Aug 4, 2011 13:34:28 GMT -5 rovo said:

There are huge bargains out there today. The question is ..... will they be bigger bargains tomorrow?

My thoughts exactly. I have been watching SDRL and today it is on sale. May be a bigger sale tomorrow.

[clarkrl2]

The last of those credit call spreads filled today. They are evenly split between Jan 2012, Mar 2012, and Jan 2013 expirations. All have the 110/115 strikes. The first two were for $1 and the last for $1.25.

[clarkrl2]

Also EOG beat earnings estimates and revenue estimates. The stock closed at $95.92 up 4.11%. I sold the Jan 2013 70 puts and bought the Jan 2013 65 puts for a credit of $1.30 on the $5.00 spread. The stock has to fall about 25% before I start losing money. Of course this expiration is after Dec. 21, 2012.

[kadee79]

Today I worked outside until I was soooo hot I had to get out of the sun!....heat stroke or heat exhaustion was coming!

Got some more things to do when it starts to cool down this evening.

Been reading boards here/there...learning stuff and marveling at some people's thought processes! ;D

[Bluerobin]

Today, I am crying and watching the portfolio go down the toilet. I wonder where Crabby can get a job?

[Trongersoll]

Today i jumped out my basement window.

[midjd]

WXYZ (and others), do you hold individual stocks or index funds (or both)? I am allocated about 20% in the DJIA index fund, 20% in the S&P 500 index fund, 25% in the Schwab international fund, 25% the Target 2040/2045 funds, and the rest is a smattering of individual stocks/sectors (a few shares of CMI, XLU, and some others). Wondering if that is an OK mix and if not, what I need to be buying to even things out.

[yclept]

My last two long positions (EWZ and NBY) are both disappointing today, but are massively overcome by gains in the short ETFs which are all green. Overall the portfolio is up about 3% today, but I added significantly to the short ETFs this morning and those positions had already run up at the open, so the relatively small gains they've experienced since then are dragging down larger gains on the previously existing short positions.
I think we'll see a pretty big drop after the Fed announcement tomorrow which I expect to contain bad news on rising inflation (a disincentive for further injection of money), and further evidence that they don't have much left in the way of ammo anyway, even if they wanted to intervene. No news will be bad news.

Edit:
My read: SPX should break below 1000 this week; from there I expect a slower descent down to about 700 by the end of October. I could be wrong -- was wrong on something else once before! I've forgotten exactly what it was I was wrong about ;-). Still, there's plenty of time to shed long positions before the worst of this drop. This year's gains in the indices are gone -- it's water under the bridge. I advise not hanging on to long positions to see the gains from 2008 and 2009 follow after them. Markets go down much faster than they go up. It's all relative, and the worst of this down market is yet to come. My guess is that we've barely begun to fall.

Trade based upon what the market is actually doing, not upon what you think it "ought to do".

[Bluerobin]

I hold about 50 individual stocks, some corporate bonds, and cash. I just can't decide if I should buy today, or wait until tomorrow. I do have my eye on a few stocks.

[Trongersoll]

Well, today i sold off some stocks that seemed to have run their course and were only down a little today, and bought one i like that was down a lot today. Hoping tomorrow will be a better day.

[Driftr]

Aug 8, 2011 11:17:17 GMT -5 Trongersoll said:

Today i jumped out my basement window.

Saw this this morning and forgot to post a lol. So.

LoL.

I'm doing nothing today. Considered doing everything from going to cash and following yclept & others on the 3x inverse train to throwing all my spare cash into the mix and trying to catch a possible bottom. In the end, I decided to just watch dividends accumulate until September and then put them to work at what I expect will be lower prices.

One thing I am doing in the morning is canceling our 10 year purchase this month. 2.37 yield last I saw. No way. I'll wait until October auction (3rd issue of this new cusip) and see where the yields are then.

[kadee79]

I can't seem to locate any info...may not be looking in the right places, but doesn't the market have a history of going down in most Augusts? I thought I remembered reading or hearing that a few years ago?

[yclept]

September is historically the worst month for stocks with August and October following close behind. I couldn't find any of the sites where the data supporting this is tabulated. I did find this old article from Jubak when he was on MSN that talked about it:

articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/HowToPlayTheFallMarketSlump.aspx

Sy Harding uses the seasonal model as part of his trading strategy. He has a lot of old data in his book "Riding the Bear", but the data is dated, having been written in the late nineties. I found this counter argument article in a search just now: www.cxoadvisory.com/2640/calendar-effects/simple-test-of-sy-hardings-seasonal-timing-strategy/

I did notice that the banner ad they dished up to me was a link to some gold-touting site with a picture of that raving idiot Glen Beck. I personally wouldn't put much credence in a site willing to run an ad like that.

I don't know who these guys are, and they don't give a multi-year summary that compares the strategies over time.

At various times I've done longer term tests of the seasonal model and have convinced myself that it has some validity, but prefer to use shorter indicators for market timing. The primary use I make of seasonal timing is in position sizing. Give a moving average "buy" signal during the "favorable period -- roughly the beginning of November through the end of April -- I'm more likely to take on a bigger position than I would given the same signal during the unfavorable period.

Some of these timing models probably work simply because people expect them to work and act accordingly. They become self-fulfilling prophecies.

[kadee79]

Thanks y! At least I know I'm not the only one who can't find what I was looking for!
I was trying to find a graph that had each years ups/downs according to the months. Maybe none in existence!

[livinincali]

If you're looking for market stats bespoke investing, dshort, and cobra's blog are pretty good from a when this has happened in history and what's happened next. For example here's a link to the worst August starts on record and what happened there after, they have a premium service as well but I'm not sure what's in there.

www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/8/5/the-worst-start-to-august-ever.html

Here's dshort's home page.
advisorperspectives.com/dshort/

Here's cobra's blog
cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/

I'm not affiliated with any of these sites, I'm just find them good sources of information but if this violates some kind of policy here I can remove this post.

[livinincali]

Here's what I think you're looking for regarding seasonality



If the image doesn't show up try this link.
lh3.ggpht.com/-MjQh1jjol_w/TjSG4cqtCvI/AAAAAAAALP0/lb1T_lLADLI/s1600-h/AugSeasonalityMonthByMonth%25255B2%25255D.png

[Trongersoll]

Today I'm looking at a Sea for Green.