rovo's Market Journal -- 2011

[totalkaos]

Purchased GAZ. Monday up gap looks supportive after long down trend. Intend to hold until summer.

[rovo]

Damn Sam. If I have to watch many more market days like today's action, then I'm going to have to have a seat belt installed on my office chair. Rocky ride and it almost tossed me to the floor.

[rovo]

Dividends? I've only lately been acquiring dividend payers. My general impression is it isn't worth the hassle. 3% or 4% dividends over a year equate to BFD. Just an opinion.

[ModE98]

"My general impression is it isn't worth the hassle. 3% or 4% dividends over a year equate to BFD."

Rovo, to a major extent, you are correct. More $$ in getting good cap gains.

[rovo]

I'm out of today's trade of TQQQ at $154.20. What a waste of time. Bought 700 at $153.80 and sold 700 at $154.20. Net $280 before comms. or about $260 net-net. Better than red ink but just barely.

[yclept]

Well, I tried some TQQQ today also. Bought at 152.93 a little while after you posted (only 30 shares, so nowhere near the bet size you were making). I didn't want to sit around and watch it, nor did I have any other adjustments to existing positions that I intended to make. So I just put a GTC trailing stop on it at what was 5% below the then current price. With the small amount I was using it should represent less than $250 loss if the trail gets hit. The stop started at $146.49 and updated as follows: 146.75, 146.79, 146.85. So as it stands now if the stop is hit, I'll be out $6.08/sh or 4% from my cost (assuming execution occurs at the trigger). Obviously I'm hoping to catch any big gap-up that comes in the morning. Conversely I could get caught with a market sell if there's a big gap down on open. But with less than $5k at stake, I say "come on out" (which for our non-craps playing readers means "roll the dice").

[heavyweightboxer]

Went ahead and picked up some March $20 call options for F this morning hoping for a run up after the sales numbers but stayed flat so hope it is consolidating for another run up. Still in my January V call options but they aren't looking good.

[rovo]

Yclept, I think you may see a nice pop in the TQQQ tomorrow. I've noticed lately the pre-market activity is a little higher than at mid-day.

Boxer, I have some of the same Ford March Calls at $20.00 so I'll be rooting for you to make a lot of money on yours. LOL

I just tallied up for the day and it wasn't as bad as I thought. I lost a little money today with the oils pulling back a bit. Nothing major but a lot of my holdings were slightly in the red today. Ford acted very strange today with the big dip around 12:30. Mimicked the market in direction but was exaggerated in Ford. Fortunately it recovered to finish in the green for the day. Portfolio MTD = +1.21%

[yclept]

It's early in the evening (here), but I see the futures are down a little bit. If things aren't significantly worse at the open, my 5% stop shouldn't be hit on a gap -- after that we'll have to see. Strangely, I was up today, most of it in the last hour or so when I was paying no attention. Some of my little off-the-wall stuff went up quite a bit: JGBO 8.53%; KAZ 5.32%; GILT 6.23%; BDSI 4.23%, and a few others that held the line or drifted up or down a percent or two and balanced each other out. Overall the port was up .3% which I consider very fortunate on a day like this. All of those big percentage gainers above are single positions (only about $6k each) -- it's hard to get in and out of a lot of them. They are small baskets in which I'm afraid to put too many eggs!
If TBT doesn't start back up pretty soon I might drop it for awhile. Long term I think it's the right play on bonds, but maybe Cali's right for awhile. Maybe I'll just cut the position in half. It's about four positions right now -- maybe I'll trim it back to two. But then, if something ought to be sold, it ought to be sold without any half measures. Tomorrow will probably tell for me. It's not like I can't buy it back if the sell proves to be wrong. It's about the slowest moving double ETF I'm aware of, and I don't expect it to jackrabbit away from me!

[rovo]

I think I just saw TBT go across the screen showing green. The ADP Employment Report came in with numbers much, much better than expected. Better employment means better growth of the economy, means higher probability of interest rates rising. Q's are still red but will most likely turn green on the open.

[rovo]

Entered order for 1K TQQQ at $152.50. It just filled. It could be a wild ride so hang on tight.

ETA: Of course it dropped another dollar immediately after I bought TQQQ but it now slightly above my buy-in point.

[rovo]

Ford is currently showing red compared to yesterday's close but I expect a reasonably strong day for Ford. A close of at least $17.50 for Ford is what I'm targeting. Today's economic data is good (so far) and it should ripple into a consumer product like autos.

The US$ is showing good strength today against the Swiss Franc and the Euro and, as such, the prices of precious metals, gold and silver, are declining.

[rovo]

Just entered a sell order for the TQQQ I bought a little bit ago. Sell 1K TQQQ at $156.52. Time will tell.

[rovo]

I hate Wednesdays. So I have a day trade on of over $150K and in 10 minutes I'll be tossed off the computer so the cleaning lady can straighten up my sty. I wonder if she would consider the Night shift. LOL.

I'm only a dollar away from my sale price on TQQQ. If I leave as is I could be leaving a lot of money on the table. If I blindly raise it I could miss the trade and get screwed.

GD Wednesdays.

[rovo]

"The December ISM Services Index was just released, but no real reaction has been made to the data. The Index improved to 57.1 from 55.0. It had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com to come in at 55.7."

The good data continues to bode well for the economy. The market has been lagging or ignoring the data. It may cause a pop around noon. QQQQ is green but dropping a bit as I type. Probably just a little dip to pull it back within the upper Bollinger Band on the 15 minute chart.

[livinincali]

I'm not sure what to make of the market today. I was expecting a much bigger move up based on the data, but maybe it's just a sign that this market is indeed significantly overbought. It really doesn't matter how good the data is unless you get a new wave of buyers that step up to the plate and buy because of it. Getting close to stopping out of TLT, and maybe that's for the best as it's been whipsaw city the past couple of weeks. It looked good about a week ago but the price move I was expecting just didn't show up.

Internals are pretty bad today so I really don't expect to this the market rocketing higher. There's more decliner than advancers, and the up volume/down volume ratio is right around 1. If the internals improve maybe we get a decent move higher but in general the internals are telling us today's rally is pretty weak.

[yclept]

Among other things, I suspect the mutual funds are dealing with two issues. They know they have funds coming in from 401k accounts and such that many of them will have to invest to adhere to their prospectus guidelines. They also have to unwind a lot of their window dressing from the end of the year where they bought stuff that showed having gone up (and was therefore probably overpriced) to make their depositors think that's what they owned during the quarter. Now they have to re-deploy those funds into more undervalued assets the ranks of whom swelled due to year-end tax loss selling by general investors.
So, all in all, I expect some extra rotation out of over-valued issues into undervalued issues. I could well be wrong. I was wrong on something once before!
For now I'm keeping the TBT.
Whether myth or true, I think the presidential cycle (wherein the third year of a presidential term is up) is going to hold this time. I see politicians of all stripes pushing as hard as they can to improve the economy in hopes of garnering favor in the 2012 elections. They all want an improved economy on their re-election resume`.

[livinincali]

I bailed out on the TLT for a really small loss. I don't like the setup anymore but I really wouldn't be surprised if I just got whipsawed. Way too many people still talking bond bubble and how treasury yields can only go higher from here. If I had more risk tolerance I would have waited for 90 to be taken out but at this point I can always get back on board once it figures out which way the range is going to break. I think maybe I'm just trying to be too contrarian right now. There's always periods of time where the herd is right and right now seems to be one of those times.

It always looks like a great time to invest at the top and a terrible time to invest at the bottom. I'm just seeing too many people claiming now is a great time to invest and I'm also not seeing great risk to reward opportunities in many charts. Maybe we'll play out like 1999-2000 again. Fed is pumping liquidity and things are looking better. Then when the fed stops because things are finally getting better the market starts dropping down a slope of hope.

[rovo]

As Yclept has said many times, It is a market of stocks not a stock market. I'm not looking at the advance/decline or other market metrics. I'm looking at the stocks I own and they're looking pretty good. Ford has blown through the $18 number and my Ford options are starting to move nicely.

The Jan $19 Call I have is a penny away from my 12 cent sales point. The March $20 Call is back around 35 cents.

With a little luck it will be a $50K day for me and it has been a while since I've had one of those.

Oops, the Jan $19 Call just moved out of my account at 12 cents. Basically doubled my money since 03 January. Yeah baby.

Also, I forgot to mention the TQQQ trade went thru at 156.52 and, as I expected, I left a lot of money sitting on the table since it hit 158 this morning. Oh well, I did say I hate Wednesdays.

[yclept]

sold TQQQ at 157.16; 2.77%, but only 30 shares, so not big money.
It looked to me to be rolling over and heading back down at the same level that it did the day before yesterday. Placed a GTC limit buy for it at 146.05 -- we'll see if it wants to come back down there! Also placed a GTC limit buy for 70 TNA at 70.05 (it's 74.38 right now). That's around the low it saw yesterday which was a multi-day low.
Now we'll let them race each other to the bottoms I've picked!
On your mark, get set, drop!

[yclept]

www.fashion-style.becomegorgeous.com/new_trends/springsummer_2011_skirt_trends-2898.html

We mustn't neglect the skirt length indicator. The lengths seem all over the place in the website above, though on-balance more are short. I don't know if it means anything, but the models wearing the longer skirts all look to me like they were rolled out of their casket and dressed for the photo shoot. I guess it's supposed to be some kind of vampire look in line with those stupid movies and TV programs that have been popular (I guess) lately.
Just looked at it again to make sure the link was working -- man, that's a bunch of angry-looking females! Though as emaciated as most of them look, I don't reckon they pack much of a punch. They almost make the beaver in my avatar look healthy!

[ModE98]

Yclept, after view the site, have to agree with you... your emaciated beaver is much better looking than some of those models. Must be poltergeists.

[rovo]

Mostly green in the port today. The couple in the red were just slightly red but the greens were very green.

Ford (30K shares plus Call options) is showing some real horsepower this week and I believe there is more to come. I'm not sure how much more but I think we will see 18.50 this week. Up 2.93% today.

HI (20K shares) showed a little life today also and increased 1.84% for the day and is nearing a local high point. Can it break through or will it stall at the resistance point of 21.20ish ?

TBT came on like gang busters today with a 4.35% rise for the day. An improving economy suggests increasing interest rates and a rising TBT. I have TBT (7K shares) in both accounts but the IRA is holding the most (5k shares) and deeply under water with a buy price of $47 compared to today's close of $39.07.

Those are my three top $ holdings other than cash.

I'm sitting at +3.53% for the Month-to-Date.

[heavyweightboxer]

Well, after sitting on flat on Visa calls for well over a week I decided to take my loss and move on this morning and of course literally 5 minutes after I got out, they went through the roof . Fortunately, my Ford was up so I took profit on the March 20 calls and bought some Feb 19 calls on a slight pullback. So, for my small port YTD, I am down a little but hopefully Ford will continue to spike and put me in the green. Have some cash on the sidelines and looking for another opportunity.

[lovetobike]

My fertilizer stocks are continuing to do well:

AGU +12%
MOS +11.8%
POT +20.8%

I think they have more room to run even if we see the pullback that a lot of people are talking about.

My HI position is finally in the green +1.54%. I'm thinking I'm going to sell part of it if it hits $22/share since it is close to its high.

I've been thinking about selling my MSFT - it is up by 21.7% and I've held it for over a year. I don't think it has much more upside potential. Does anyone else see something I don't that would make me think I should hold on for a little longer?

Does any know if Beerfan made it over here?

[lovetobike]

Good news for my fertilizers stocks - particularly MOS. An article in Bloomberg.

Mosaic Climbs as Net Tops Estimates on Rising Prices
By Simon Casey and Christopher Donville - Jan 5, 2011 4:56 PM ET

Mosaic Co., North America’s second- largest fertilizer producer, rose in New York trading after fiscal second-quarter profit beat analysts’ estimates as phosphate prices and potash sales soared.

Mosaic climbed $2.13, or 2.8 percent, to $77.13 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares advanced 28 percent last year.

Net income rose more than ninefold to $1.03 billion, or $2.29 a share, in the three months through November from $107.8 million, or 24 cents, a year earlier, Plymouth, Minnesota-based Mosaic said yesterday in a statement. Per-share earnings excluding a $1.28 after-tax gain from the sale of South American fertilizer assets were $1.01, topping the 92-cent average estimate of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Rising prices for corn and soybeans are prompting farmers to buy more fertilizers to boost yields. Mosaic sold diammonium phosphate for $461 a metric ton in the fiscal quarter, up 61 percent from a year earlier. Sales of potash, another crop nutrient, climbed 75 percent to 1.8 million tons.

“Demand for fertilizers is booming,” Mosaic Chief Executive Officer Jim Prokopanko said yesterday in a telephone interview. He said he expects phosphate-fertilizer prices to keep rising. “We’re doing all we can to keep up with demand.”

Mosaic, which is 64 percent owned by closely held commodity trader Cargill Inc., said sales gained 56 percent to $2.67 billion from $1.71 billion. That beat the $2.45 billion average of 12 analyst estimates.

Mosaic said it will use more than 85 percent of its North American phosphate-fertilizer production capacity in the third fiscal quarter. The company said it expects to sell 2.4 million to 2.7 million tons of the crop nutrient in the period with diammonium phosphate prices ranging from $510 to $540 a ton.

“With supportive crop prices, tight inventories, and anticipated strong demand, the momentum appears to have returned to the fertilizer industry,” Edlain Rodriguez, a New York-based analyst at Gleacher & Co., wrote in a Dec. 28 note to clients.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the largest North American fertilizer producer, rose $5.33, or 3.4 percent, to $161.98 in New York. Agrium Inc., based in Calgary and the largest agricultural retailer to U.S. farmers, climbed 94 cents, or 1 percent, to $91.62.

Florida Lawsuit

Prokopanko said he’s still confident Mosaic will win a lawsuit filed by environmental groups over the company’s South Fort Meade, Florida, phosphate-rock mine. Sierra Club Inc. and other groups object to a plan to extend the mine.

Mosaic reached a temporary settlement in October, allowing the partial resumption of mining. The company said in July a victory for the groups would force the mine to close.

Mosaic said its average international selling price for potash in the fiscal second quarter fell to $331 a ton from $370 a year earlier. The company said it plans to operate its potash mines at more than 90 percent of capacity in the current fiscal quarter.

[rovo]

I'm sitting here looking at the charts of the Qs for a play and I can't determine the most likely direction of movement. The Bull in me says we will continue upward but the Bear in me says we are way over bought in the short term. What I am trying to avoid is a smack-down in a trade causing me to give back my recent trading gains.

The best action may just be no action until the day's trend is defined.

[Bluerobin]

Rovo, if it helps, a sage on CNBC said he expected a slight correction around the 20th. Then steady growth.

[rovo]

Blue, I was referring to the really short term, as in a day trade. I do think we are over due for a correction but it is difficult to forecast when it appears the economy is on the mend. Euphoria is running high, too high, but who knows with any certainty if it is misdirected.

The official jobs numbers, due tomorrow, will give an indication of future market direction. Talk is of a blow out gain in employment as predicted by the ADP numbers. If the employment picture improves significantly, then the recent market rise will have been justified. Otherwise there will be a quick correction of 5% to 10%.

My opinion is in the intermediate term, weeks-months, the markets are over bought but only a very slight pullback will occur and then sideways movement for a while as the stocks grow into their prices.

Some market segments will continue to rise based upon a better outlook for the industries as in autos but then other segments will drop with the overall results being flat to slightly up by the end of February.

[rovo]

I just placed an order for 500 shares of TQQQ at $154.38. I'm looking for a dip in the Qs this afternoon of about $0.50 to $0.55 and this would cause TQQQ to go down to my order price. If the Qs do not dip, then no harm done. If the order fills I'll be holding over night awaiting the employment report. Note I'm only trying to buy 500 versus my normal 1K shares as I'm still unsure about direction. NOTE: This is a high risk play.