rovo's Market Journal -- 2011

[rovo]

I'm a little early in starting this thread but I need somewhere to post.

Placed sell orders for 3K FMCN at $21.45 and 5K MSFT at $28.17.

FMCN has been in the port for a few years and is a Chinese advertising stock. It may do well going forward but it hasn't done squat in quite a while and I'm trying to clear out the dead wood from the tax deferred account.

MSFT was/is a short term / medium term play but I'm also throwing the towel in on this puppy. Also in the tax deferred account and currently is a slightly profitable trade. Purchase price was $27.64.

Both trades will increase my cash position. Cash position is currently 23%.

[Bluerobin]

Rovo, glad to see you brought this over!

[fvbridges]

Rovo.....I plan to be a regular visitor here. Officially I have had a stock price double. Bought AXTI at $4.35....today it's at $10.20.....

[rovo]

I'm sitting on large positions in Ford (30K), HI (20K), and TBT (7K) and I'm expecting very good returns on all 3 of these plays in 2011.

Ford has been stagnant for a few weeks but I'm expecting another step upward when the sales results for December are announced next week. I also hold a couple of options on Ford: F Mar 19, 2011 $20 Call & F Jan 21, 2012 $30 Call. The first option is still green but way down from where it was but I still expect it to be a big money maker before expiration. The second option is in the red so we'll just have to see how this plays out.

HI hasn't been doing much but should have a good year. I'm expecting another acquisition to be made in Q1 or Q2 which may boost the stock price. HI is trading at a PE of about 13.9 and is fairly priced, give or take a dollar or two.

TBT is a play on interest rates. I bought into this way too early and I'm severely in the red. My expectation is for this play to turn green in Q1. I'm still expecting to make a lot of money on this play but I've been wrong before on some plays.

[bga4444]

Hey Rovo, If you had to pick one stock to buy in 2011, only one what would you buy?

[rovo]

I'm a goal oriented type of person and I'm trying to establish portfolio goals for 2011. I talked it over a bit with DW and she says to just break even for 2011 after paying a significant income tax bill and living expenses. These expenses have to come out of my accounts since I have no other income. This seems to wussy for me and I'm thinking along the lines of the above plus 10%. So, from how I report results, I'll be showing just a net gain / loss percentage as we go into the year. This is how I have historically posted.

[rovo]

Dec 29, 2010 11:03:43 GMT -5 bga4444 said:

Hey Rovo, If you had to pick one stock to buy in 2011, only one what would you buy?

Hi BGA4444,
I don't do picks for other people since the risk profile is different for each of us. I always post my plays, my thoughts about the play, and whether it is a short term or long term play. Also, others usually chime in with their opinions of my thoughts. This isn't a very good answer for you but it is the best I can do.

[livinincali]

Ford has been stagnant for a few weeks but I'm expecting another step upward when the sales results for December are announced next week.

Looks like that cup and handle is no longer going to materialize. It is a good sign that F is burning off the overbought conditions on the charts by moving sideways. That should be a good sign that it will move higher once it's done consolidating.

Of course I'm not really sure what to make of the really low volume sideways trade in the past 2 weeks. I could see some profit taking in early January as people want to lock in gains but also want to delay taxes until 2011.

[rovo]

Cali, I agree about the cup-and-handle not happening. It looked pretty good for a while but the handle is soooo long as to make the formation moot.

Sideways movement is not necessarily bad as recent gains are digested. I just think it is looking for a reason for movement and none has been forthcoming. Volume is anemic.

[livinincali]

HI hits it's next target resistance of 21. If it manages to get over this level and consolidate it might be a candidate for a long term trend reversal. Of course it would be perfectly reasonable to expect it to quickly back off this level and establish another intermediate term lower high. If I was going to trade this I would go short here with a stop at the 200 day moving average around 21.35-21.40. Let's see how that play would work out. The long play worked out well from 19.50 but we are in an up trending market so that probably had the better risk to reward.

[totalkaos]

Many thanks Rovo for bringing the board over. I have lurked for some while now and find many who post here to have thought filled ideas. I usually manage my own investments with a broad brush so I tend to trade infrequently and thus do not have too many trades to post. Best wishes, good health, and happy 2011 to all.

[klewcm]

Rovo - Thanks for starting the new journal. I dont post very often, but I have been observing for quite awhile. I find the tips interesting, although I pursue only a very few. I still work full time, so I cannot devote as much time to investing as I would prefer. The different views and outlook is actually quite educational, and much better to learn by others experience than by learning the hard ( expensive ) way. Thanks again, and keep up the good work,

[rovo]

None of my sell orders executed today. What looked like an OK day for me turned into a minor loss. That sucks as it pulled my YTD return to +29.81% and I'm trying for +30%. TBT was the major decliner. Lots of other little pieces of my data also fell below thresholds today but I don't want to divulge all the factors within my portfolio that I set goals for and monitor as it is private $ info.

[rovo]

I have a play on to buy some TQQQ but I'm waiting for a low point to set the buy price. Currently at the unrealistic price of 149.00. I'm impressed by the Chicago PMI reported today and we should end the day substantially higher than current prices.

[rovo]

OK. The TQQQ order filled, 1,000 at 149.50, which currently is the low for the day. Now to this puppy before it bites me in the ass. Entering a sell order at $151.50 as a place holder.
TQQQ is an ultra play on QQQQ and moves percentage wise at about 3X the Qs.

[rovo]

The market appears slow in responding to data today.

Initial UI Claims: Actual = 388K Expected = 416K

Chicago PMI: Actual = 68.6 Expected = 61.5

Pending Home Sales: Actual = +3.5% Expected = -3.0%

One downer for the day:

Continuing Claims: Actual = 4.128M Expected = 4.060M

[livinincali]

Volume is really light and traditionally last 2 days of the month have produced sell offs. It's been the beginning of the month that has produced the best rallies. Although early January hasn't been real good lately. Probably people looking to book profits in the new year and postpone tax payments until 2011 rather than selling now and having to pay in April 2010.

[rovo]

I sold off the holdings in FMCN this morning at 21.40 for a loss of about 33%. Years long holding with nothing to show for the effort. IRA account. Just cleaning out the cob webs. LOL.

[rovo]

Very minor uptick in the port today to the tune of 0.01% for MTD. Not even enough for a couple of good dinners.

Got stuck with holding the TQQQ over night so this good be bad but will probably be about break even.

[heavyweightboxer]

Looked like pretty low volume today and I expect more of the same tomorrow which I believe is what dragged down a lot of stocks. I see some good buying opportunities but unfortunately, I'm still poor.

Could really use some opinions on my January $75 Visa (V) calls...I feel good about them but would like some other opinions.

[Bluerobin]

Rovo, you mentioned "place holder" - if you revise the bid, does it stay in the same place or go to the back of the line.

BTW, you have me thinking about investing to pay all household expenses +. Maybe that will enable me to put off SS. I got a bit of thinking and discussion to do with Crabby over this one.

[rovo]

Hey Blue,
I guess "place holder" isn't a good term for me to use. What I mean is I have filled out the "sell ticket" as I'm rather slow at this because I always triple check everything. It takes me a minute or two to do this. Changing the price on an open ticket takes me about 15 seconds. So, I put the ticket in at a "wouldn't it be nice price" and then go back and change it if I have to.

[rovo]

heavyweightboxer, I need more info. Did you sell the Calls or buy the Calls? January $75 Visa Calls.

It doesn't look to me like Visa is going to go to $75 by January 22nd. Ergo, if you sold the Calls you will most likely be OK but if you bought the Calls, they most likely will expire worthless.

It is difficult to tell with any certainty because of the anemic volume this past week. The first week of January may give us a better indication of market direction. As of this time it appears to me that all of the indexes are rolling over and ready to begin a decline. It will take some very good news, better than expected, to reverse the rollover. It can easily happen but be cautious. As usual, just my opinion, for what it's worth.

[rovo]

I just notice the accounts were credited with several thousand $ of dividends this morning. I think it is from HI. This will help to bring me back to the 2010 goal of +30%. A down day today will wipe those dividends out like they never existed.

[Bluerobin]

Rovo, I learned the hard way to at least double check things! Luckily it executed "at market", but still lower than I wanted. Now, I am much more careful before I pull the trigger.
I have been watching F and HI for a while. Don't ask me why I haven't bought HI - it does have a nice dividend. There is just something that keeps me from buying.

[rovo]

Blue, I like Ford for the short and medium term. They should have an increasing stock price at least through 2011. The industry is still recovering and Ford is increasing market share. It is currently at $16.65 and has been a flat line for the month of December after a little bounce in the beginning of the month. It is getting ready for another upward bounce next week. PE is at 9.3 so it isn't really over priced. I still expect it to be about $20 in March or sooner.

[heavyweightboxer]

Rovo, I bought the $75 calls for V. Should have gotten out for a profit already but now I'm negative. I don't need it to go to $75 but I do need a bounce up to $72 or so.

For the smaller players, the two I alerted on above are already up 25-35%. Good news just came out on ACTC and I expect good things from both in 2011. I hope to be able to put some funds in both before they run too much.

[Bluerobin]

rovo, I have to be disciplined and only buy dividends for the next few months!

[ModE98]

Ole Blue, that makes two of us!

[Bluerobin]

Mod E, have some Karma! I still intend to go for dividends, but will go with other stocks once SS kicks in. Some of what I have pays nicely, but has risk. I plan on reducing the risk and building the funds for a while when SS is available.