rovo's Market Journal -- 2011

[rovo]

It looks like we are getting a selloff in AAPL going into the close. Logical I guess to lock in profits and avoided the risk of unknown earnings.

[livinincali]

If only the question were that simple. GOOG stock was dropping into earnings because people thought Google + and other decisions by GOOG were going to hit the earnings number. In GOOGs case the earnings really were a surprise. People were selling the stock going into earnings because they didn't really believe it would be that good. In AAPLs case it's completely the opposite. Everybody thinks AAPL is going to blow it out of the water. I'd say anything less than 6.20-6.30 would be a disappointment based on how people are looking at that stock. You just know that everybody is expecting Apple's stock price to react like GOOGs so they are buying it now, hoping they are going to see a repeat of that performance, I think there will be a ton of sell the news just because of that fact. I'd guess APPL would have to do something close to $7.00 in order to get the major pop so many people are expecting, but I could be wrong. Short interest was elevated on the last reporting date 6/30/2011, but those shorts are probably already gone with the recent move.

Chart wise AAPL has a bit of a warning with a possible reversal candle today (gapped up but trading below the gap price now). It's just a minor technical problem. It wouldn't be the first time a stock like this just kept surging but it would also look pretty darn good as a parabolic blow off type move right before a major reversal. I just don't know but I get worried when the headlines are "Apple Stock Betting on Earnings Beat" and "Investors Ready for Another Blowout Apple Quarter"

[rovo]

$7.79 per share. BLOW OUT. YES. AAPL


:32p Apple 3Q IPhone Sales Grew 142% (Dow Jones)
4:31p Updates, advisories and surprises (MarketWatch)
4:31p Apple 3Q Japan Rev $1.51B (Dow Jones)
4:31p Apple 3Q Asia Pacific Rev $6.33B (Dow Jones)
4:31p Apple 3Q Mac Rev $5.11B (Dow Jones)
4:31p AAPL 3Q Earnings Alert: Thomson Reuters $5.85 (Dow Jones)
4:31p Apple 3Q Europe Rev $7.1B (Dow Jones)
4:31p Apple 3Q Retail Rev $3.51B (Dow Jones)
4:31p Apple 3Q iPod Rev $1.33B (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple Reports Third Quarter Results (Business Wire)
4:30p Apple 3Q EPS $7.79 >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q Gross Margin 41.7% >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple Sees 4Q Rev $25B >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple Sees 4Q EPS $5.50 >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q Net $7.31B >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q Sales $28.57B >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q IPad Unit Sales 9.25M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q Iphone Unit Sales 20.3M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q Ipod Unit Sales 7.54M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q Mac Unit Sales 3.95M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q Portable Unit Sales 2.79M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q Desktop Unit Sales 1.16M >AAPL (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q Desktops Rev $1.58B (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q Americas Rev $10.13B (Dow Jones)
4:30p Apple 3Q Portables Rev $3.53B (Dow Jones)

[livinincali]

Well it's better than 7, (7.79) so off to the races we go, or at least we should. Congratz rovo.

[rovo]

AAPL: I still have CALL options on 3,000 shares as spelled out above as well as 800 common shares. This could be big, as in 6 low figures.

[livinincali]

Trading at 403 in AH, so rovo wins the contest in real life.

[livinincali]

Looks like AAPl is starting to back off a bit in the AH, so there are some sell the news guys out there. I really do think 7 was probably the critical level, anything 7 and lower probably would have produced a selloff just based on how it's trading in the AH. Right around 7 was what it was priced for, the 10% extra is giving the 6% AH push, but as we can see it's still not trading better than GOOG even though it beat by more than GOOG beat.

[yclept]

But his ZSL had a far better percent gain today than did the AAPL.

[rovo]

Earnings of 7.79 replace Q3 of last year at $3.51 so ttm earnings are up by $4.28. With a PE of 17 I would expect share price to go up by $72.76 per share or else the PE drops.

So I'm going to bitch a little about the meager share price of AAPL at $400. Take it up to $650 and I'll say it is properly valued. At 400 it is still a "Value" play.

My options expire in August so there is plenty of time for the stock to increase in price.

[yclept]

Your estimate of $6.40 (or so) though AAPL beat it handily was certainly a lot better than anything the street analysts were projecting. I gave up on projecting earnings a long time ago as being a hopeless task for any but the most transparent companies (and I always figured a lot of them were lying!).

What method do you use to come up with your projections, especially on a company as tight-lipped as AAPL?

[rovo]

Yclept, There is a lot of info on the web about sales etc. My estimate was very low so my research wasn't that good. Verizon data, AT&T data, Foxconn, and tons of articles read during the last several weeks. I put a lot of work into this seemingly simple play but it appears to have been worth it. Also talking to people using various AAPL devices and local school districts using iPads in the classroom.

[livinincali]

Well here's the results on the short strangle on APPL that I talked about above. I really thought this had no chance of working once I saw the earnings numbers but I guess a lot of people got into AAPL stock looking for short term profits rather than the long term.

Sell the August 365 put for 9.60
Sell the August 385 call for 10.40
Total $20x100 = $2000 per contract

Buy the August 365 put for 3.00
Buy the August 385 call for 13.00
Total $16x100 = $1600 per contract

Net gain $400 per contract sold.

This is trying to illustrate the point that the volatility premium comes out of options after the major expected event. Nobody buying an August 385 call has a big news event on the horizon to give a big lift to the stock so they just aren't willing to pay as much after the event as they were before the event. The strategy only works on out of the money options where there is much more volatility priced in.

Another way illustrate how this works is to look at the gains today for the various call options. As you can see the in the money calls did better than the out of the money calls, which may be counter intuitive but it illustrates people priced the home run too high.

August Appl Calls

Strike Today's Price Today's Gain Today's % gain
350 | 40.23 | 10.39 | 34.82%
355 | 35.6 | 9.68 | 37.35%
360 | 30.8 | 8.6 | 38.74%
365 | 26.61 | 7.6 | 39.98%
370 | 23.19 | 5.6 | 31.84%
375 | 18.4 | 4.35 | 30.96%
380 | 15.6 | 3.45 | 28.40%
385 | 12.74 | 2.84 | 28.69%
390 | 10.24 | 2 | 24.27%
395 | 8.00 | 1.55 | 24.03%
400 | 6.1 | 0.85 | 16.19%

[tyfighter3]

ROVO, Here is a least of a few stocks that could give real good returns in the future and the reason behind it. You might be able to glean something out of it.
seekingalpha.com/article/280399-high-growth-small-cap-buyout-targets-in-the-bakken-and-eagle-ford-part-i?source=feed

[livinincali]

Here's some smaller tech companies I like. None are going to scream value or a long history of strong growth, but most home runs don't until you've missed a lot of the move. This is my maybe it will be the next FSLR or BIDU list, so it carries a lot of risk.

DDD and SSYS are both makers of 3D printing presses. Basically think making any 3d model out of plastic for a fraction of the typical cost from a fabrication company.

ENTR is a makers of wireless chips for Cable Boxes. Think Central multimedia hub for the household and no more CAT5 or ethernet cables running through the house.

[rovo]

Hey Guys, Thanks for the input. Now I have a few symbols to check out. I don't know anything about ENTR but it may be interesting along with the GEOI.

[rovo]

July 20, 2011, 4:24 PM ET

Intel Q2 Crushes Estimates; Q3 View Beats; Raises Spending View

By Tiernan Ray

Intel (INTC) this afternoon reported Q2 revenue and earnings per share ahead of estimates.

Revenue in the three months ended in June rose 22%, year over year, to $13.1 billion, yielding EPS of 59 cents per share.

Analysts on average had been modeling $12.83 billion and 51 cents EPS.

For Q3, the company sees revenue of $13.5 billion to $14.5 billion, well ahead of the average $13.5 billion estimate.

Gross margin is expected to rise to 65% in Q3, again, on a non-GAAP basis.

Intel shares are up 44 cents, or 2%, at $23.43.

Gross margin was 62%, on a non-GAAP basis, down 5.5 percentage points from the prior-year period.

For the full year, the company sees gross margin in a range of 62% to 66%, and revenue growth in the “mid-20% range.” That is slightly ahead of the average estimate for revenue to rise 22% this year, to $53.2 billion.

CEO Paul Otellini remarked, “We achieved a significant new milestone in the second quarter, surpassing $13.0 billion in revenue for the first time. Strong corporate demand for our most advanced technology, the surge of mobile devices and Internet traffic fueling data center growth, and the rapid rise of computing in emerging markets drove record results. Intel’s 23 percent revenue growth in the first half and our increasing confidence in the second half of 2011 position us to grow annual revenue in the mid-20 percent range.”

PC client revenue was up 11% in the quarter, year over year, while data center group revenue was up 15%, the company said.

Intel raised its outlook for 2011 spending, including R&D, to $16 billion to $16.4 billion, from a prior range of $15.5 billion to $15.9 billion. The company raised its capital expenditure forecast for the year to a range of $10.1 billion to $10.9 billion, up from a prior range of $9.8 billion to $10.6 billion.

Intel’s conference call with analysts starts at 5:30 pm, Eastern, and you can catch it here.

Update: Intel shares, which initially traded up, are now down 25 cents, or 1.3%, at $22.74.


Very nice results from Intel but nothing as spectacular as AAPL. That said, I don't think one could find a better stock than Intel for a buy and hold portfolio. I used to own a lot of Intel stock and made a nice profit on it but the high growth period is over for them.

Their newest technology, the 3d transistor, looks very enticing and may put them back on a high growth path next year. It is too early to buy in for growth of INTC.

[rovo]

re: Apple Inc. AAPL

MSN has updated its data on Apple to reflect the latest earnings report. Two things jump out at me:
PE = 15.31
Forward PE = 13.18
In addition the ttm earnings per share are $25.26
Cash position is about $75 per share with a lot of talking heads saying AAPL should / will give some of the cash to shareholders via a special dividend. It matters not to me as the cash is investing and creating income.

Funny thing is they, MSN, is calling for year end earnings (year ends 9/11) of $25.11 and Q4 earnings of $6.40. So I suspect they are remiss in updating some of their numbers. TD Ameritrade is calling for FY Q4 earnings of $6.85. Q4 is typically AAPL's best quarter and I'm offering up a guesstimate of $9.00 per share. (Nothing to support this number at this time)

MSN is calling FY 20122 earnings of $29.37.

[rovo]

re: MicroSoft MSFT

I have a few shares, 5K, of MicroSoft and I have been holding them since Mid 2010. I'm in the red with MSFT, but only slightly. I think it will turn green today in anticipation of the after-hours earnings release. This stock has not shown the ability to do much of anything other than pay a fair dividend.

I have no faith in MSFT's ability to generate any substantial earnings growth and I'll probably bail out of this position, or at least the majority of it, prior to the earnings release. There is the possibility of a beat on the estimated $0.58 but I'm just seeing no possibility of a blowout report. I would consider a blowout in earnings if they were to report $0.75 or above.

[rovo]

wxyz, I had too much cash back in 2010 and just parked some it in MSFT as a safe place for a while. It will turn out about as expected with no gain in stock price but a couple of percent in dividends. I now see other places to use the cash and hence my desire to exit.

ETA: My current sell order price is $27.85 but I will adjust as needed to move the shares.

[livinincali]

I don't particular see intel as a great buy and hold stock. It's been stuck in a range since the tech crash of 2000 and it's been making low major highs consistently since then. Maybe they've got their act together and it's finally going to break out of this range, but with more and more people moving to mobile devices and intc not really having a chip in this space I don't really see long term growth for intc. They'll do ok, but not something I want to buy and hold as the computing industry continues to change.

[2kids10horses]

Thanks for your analysis, rovo.

I have long term holdings in both MSFT and INTC. Long term, from 1993 and 1995!

Depending upon how you look at it, my cost basis in MSFT is zero. They once gave a "special dividend" that was equal to the amount I invested to buy the position.

I tend to agree that INTC's prospects appear better than MSFT's at this particular time.

I also hold some CSCO, of similar vintage. CSCO has really performed poorly recently, so much so that it's been getting rave reviews by "Value" commentators. In fact, there was one pundit recommending CSCO over AAPL at today's prices.

[rovo]

Here is another report about INTC issued this morning. It breaks down the quarterly report into a readable format. ;D


11:33a ET July 21, 2011 (Zacks.com) Intel Corp (INTC) reported first quarter earnings of 57 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6 cents. The surprise was driven by higher revenue and a lower tax rate.
Intel Beats Again, Outlook Strong - Analyst Blog
Revenue

Intel reported revenue of $13.0 billion, which was within management’s guidance of $12.8 billion (+/-$500 million). Revenue for the quarter increased 1.4% sequentially and 21.1% year over year. Revenue growth was driven by the data center and embedded businesses, as well as McAfee. PC client business was soft as expected, mainly on account of the consumer, partially offset by enterprise refresh and emerging markets.

Intel’s longer-term strategy is playing out, with data center continuing to show additional opportunity, long-cycle wins in the embedded segment gathering momentum and emerging markets displaying strong growth trends.

Both internal inventories and that at distributors declined.

Revenue by Segment

The PC Client segment generated 64% of revenue in the last quarter, down 3.5% sequentially and up 6.1% year over year. Sandy Bridge was a major driver of growth in the last quarter, with the ramp rate 20% higher than the previous generation product. Overall, enterprise remained the driver of growth, while consumer remained soft in developed markets.

The main positive here was the strength in emerging markets (Turkey and Indonesia witnessing shipment growth of more than 70% from last year, India 17%, Russia 15%, China 14% and Latin America led by Brazil 12%). Low penetration and a growing per capita income are making computing devices more popular in these regions. Intel expects PCs to grow 8-10% this year, with enterprise growth resulting in a richer mix. This will of course be somewhat offset by the strength in emerging markets, where Intel’s consumer business continues to do well.

DataCenter was the second largest group with a 19% revenue share. Segment revenue was down 1.1% sequentially, but up 15.2% year over year. This segment has witnessed very strong double-digit year-over-year growth in each of the last seven quarters and, although the growth rate dropped off in the last quarter, there is every reason to believe that it will grow into one of the most important drivers of Intel’s business. The secular growth drivers here are increasing Internet usage by consumers all over the world, and the ongoing move towards virtualization and cloud computing.

Cloud applications were up 50% in the last quarter. Equipment upgrades and the growing demand for online data storage and networking infrastructure are near-term drivers. For instance, Intel reported that second-quarter microprocessor shipments for storage applications grew 38% year over year, while networking grew 40%.

The Other Intel Architecture segment generated around 11% of Intel’s revenue in the last quarter, growing 20.9% sequentially and 233.1% from last year. The embedded business did extremely well in the last quarter, with over one million units of Atom processors being sold, up 76% from a year ago. Medical imaging was up 50%, Prit imaging up 48%, communications up 40% and industrial applications up 20%.

Management started breaking out Software and Services revenue separately, which went from $65 million in the year-ago quarter to $511 million in the last quarter, mainly due to the addition of McAfee in corporate results. McAfee had a record second quarter and Intel stated that the number of large deal wins doubled from the first quarter. An integrated Intel-McAfee solution is expected to launch later this year.

The Other segment generated 4% of revenue, flat sequentially but up 13.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Overall, total microprocessors and chipsets declined 3.3% and 1.4%, respectively from the first quarter, although they were up 8.0% and 8.8%, respectively from last year.

Revenue by Geography

The Asia/Pacific market was the largest in the last quarter with a 57% contribution. Revenue growth was strong, particularly in China, leading to increases of 1.8% and 19.9%, respectively, from the previous and year-ago quarters. The Americas was the second largest region, with a 22% contribution, representing sequential and year-over-year increases of 7.1% and 33.9%, respectively. Europe came in third with a 12% revenue share, having declined 4.9% sequentially and increased 20.9% from last year. Japan stayed at number four, with a 9% contribution, representing a decline of 4.7% from the previous quarter and an increase of 3.2% from last year.

Margins

The pro forma gross margin for the quarter was 61.7%, down 75 basis points (bps) sequentially and 553 bps year over year, better than guided. This was the fourth straight quarter of sequential decline in gross margin and the third quarter of year-over-year decline. The reason for the decline in the last quarter was largely on account of 22 nm ramp up costs that peaked in the last quarter. Utilization was also lower, as additional 32nm capacity came online. Of course, a stronger mix of enterprise business remained a positive factor, although this will continue to be offset by strength in emerging markets.

Operating expenses of $3.9 billion were up 5.4% from the first quarter. The operating margin was 31.8%, down 187 bps sequentially and 520 bps year over year. The gross margin decline was the main factor hurting the year-over-year comparison, as operating expenses declined. Sequentially, all expenses increased slightly as a percentage of sales.

The operating margins by segment were as follows—PC Client 39.5% (down 163 bps sequentially), Data Center 49.4% (down 17 bps), Software and Services -2.4% and Other -2.7%. Operating margins in the Data Center and PC Client were down 426 bps and 91 bps, respectively, from the year-ago quarter, while Software and Services margin was up 194 bps.

The pro forma net income was $3.1 billion, or 23.9% of sales, compared to $3.3 billion, or 25.6% in the previous quarter and $2.9 billion or 26.9% in the prior-year quarter. One time-items included intangibles amortization expenses on a tax-adjusted basis. Accordingly, the fully diluted GAAP net income was $2.9 billion, or 54 cents per share compared to $3.2 billion, or 56 cents per share in the previous quarter and $2.9 billion, or 51 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Balance Sheet

Inventories declined 1.7% sequentially and annualized inventory turns went from 4.7X to 5.0X. Days sales outstanding (DSOs) went up slightly from 25 to around 24. The cash, marketable securities and fixed income trading asset balance at quarter-end was $11.5 billion, down $431 million during the quarter. Intel has $2.1 billion in long-term debt and 71 million in short-term debt, resulting in a net cash balance of $9.4 billion. Cash flow from operations was around $4.0 billion. Important usages of cash in the last quarter included $2.5 billion on capex and $2 billion on share repurchases.

Third Quarter Guidance

Intel guided revenue of around $14.0 billion (+/-$500 million) in the third quarter, up 7.4% sequentially and 26.1% from the September quarter of 2010. Gross margin on a GAAP basis is expected to be around 64% (+/-2 percentage points), while on a non-GAAP basis, it is expected to be 65% (+/- 2 percentage points). Total operating expenses are expected to come in at around $4.3 billion.

Management also expects to provide for depreciation of around $1.3 billion and intangibles amortization of around $75 million. Other income/expense is expected to net a gain of around $100 million. Applying the guided tax rate of 28%, net income comes to around $3.5 billion or 25.2% of revenue, which would be up sequentially, but down year over year.

Guidance for 2011

For the year, Intel guided to a gross margin of 63% (+/- 2 percentage points), non GAAP gross margin of 64% (+/- 2 percentage points) and operating expenses of $16.2 billion (+/- 200 million). The full year tax rate is expected to be 28% (down from 29%), depreciation $5.2 billion (+/- $100 million) and capex $10.5 billion (+/- $400 million). The significantly higher capex expectation is because Intel intends to bring the fourth high volume facility online to drive 22nm production and meet growing demand.

Our Take

Intel reported strong second quarter results and provided an outlook in line with normal seasonality, which was better than our expectations. Segment performance for the last quarter was not too different from what we had expected.

We reiterate that the low-power devices currently selling like hot cakes are more dependent than ever on strong server chips. Additionally, data centers are upgrading and Intel’s powerful devices are the obvious choice. With its tick-tock strategy, we believe that Intel is way ahead of the competition in terms of technology. So its supremacy in servers is likely to be sustained.

Additionally, Intel mentioned some encouraging numbers for other data center applications, such as storage, which is very encouraging. We think the move toward cloud computing will particularly benefit the company

The next segment to consider is corporate buyers that are steadily replacing PC fleets. Given Microsoft Corp’s (MSFT) Windows 7 and Intel’s new processor families, the Wintel domination here would change very gradually. Note that Intel’s newer chips are also more energy efficient. We just don’t see any ARM Holdings (ARMH)-based devices taking notable share of core corporate computing spend yet.

The sore point for Intel remains the consumer segment, where it appears to be losing ground to ARM-based devices from Apple Inc. (AAPL). Intel appears to be very much behind in the race, without any compelling product for the fast-growing tablet market. Additionally, the company’s promise of progress in the smartphone segment also appears to be some way off.

While the Ultrabook concept and hardware partnerships are encouraging, there are other factors (mainly features, software) that typically drive growth in a market segment such as this. Intel could play on the security angle, since awareness and threat of securities have both increased and the company has promised to announce Intel-McAfee integrated solutions at its developer conference in September.

Gross margin expectations were also better than expected, we think because the bulk of the 22nm ramp up charges were taken in the second quarter as well as the new growth opportunities in embedded and a strong software business.

Intel shares carry a Zacks rank of #3, implying a short term Hold recommendation. We also have a long term (3-6 months) rating of Neutral on the shares.

[rovo]

In the near future I expect to do a detailed review of the new INTC 3D Technology. What is it, what's different, why bother, etc. My preliminary review shows this change could be a disruptive technology but I need to study it in detail to draw an accurate conclusion.

[rovo]

I was unable to off-load my shares in MSFT yesterday. I missed the sale by about 20 cents in after-hours. Oh well, such is life. I now have a good to cancel order in at $27.97 and I'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Apple had flat-lined for a day and a half but now seems to be showing some life. Lots of shares were changing hands as sellers were apparently locking in their gains with the recent run-up. I'm expecting at $400 per share by the end of next week as reality sets in.

[rovo]

I'm still holding a handful of "Call" options contracts on AAPL. For sure a short term play as they expire in August.

Here is an update of current valuations:

AAPL Aug 20 2011 370.0 Call Cost = $8,600 Mkt Val = $22,550 Gain = 162%
AAPL Aug 20 2011 400.0 Call Cost = $4,000 Mkt Val = $5,650 Gain = 41%
AAPL Aug 20 2011 410.0 Call Cost = $2,450 Mkt Val = $2,690 Gain = 9%

[rovo]

I'm out of BRCM at $35.29 for a small gain. I am afraid to hold this through the earnings report on Monday. They may or may not report OK but I'm just not inclined to risk it.

[rovo]

Most of my port is pretty laid back stuff in my opinion. Hence my desire to play with buying options when I see the opportunity. I don't play low risk option stuff like Dan does. My plays are an all or nothing approach with risk just oozing out of them. The fun part is if you get it right the gains can be quite big and the downside is limited to everything you put into the play.

Two posts above this one showed the value as of 10:15 this morning. As of today's close it looked quite a bit different.

AAPL Aug 20 2011 370.0 Call .... Cost = $8,600 .... Mkt Val = $25,550 .... Gain = 197%
AAPL Aug 20 2011 400.0 Call .... Cost = $4,000 .... Mkt Val = $6,650 .... Gain = 63%
AAPL Aug 20 2011 410.0 Call .... Cost = $2,450.... Mkt Val = $3,550.... Gain = 44%

[rovo]

Ford reports earnings on Tuesday and will be the first auto company to do so.

Analysts are looking for $0.60 with a spread of $0.50 to $0.63. This compares to $0.62 for last quarter and $0.68 for year ago Q2. The consensus for last quarter was $0.50 which they beat handily.

I don't have any personal estimate on Ford for this quarter. I think I read where sales were down a tad from Q1 so that isn't encouraging. Oh well, I guess I'll just assume they will make the $0.60 as expected but I do have some doubts.

Probably the more important issue with regard to share pricing is the Q2 GDP results being released next Friday as well as what is happening in the Debt Reduction talks.

Futures are quite red this evening with the DOW down over 100 points. I think this coming week will be exciting as the market reacts to every little nuance coming out of Washington.

[rovo]

AAPL is looking very strong, up 0.73% in a down market. A value of $399.57 was hit in the pre-market trading on 20 July. To me this will be the point to break through and then it is off to the races. There is always a psychological barrier at the "round numbers" and in this case it is $400 per share. This may happen today or later this week but there is nothing in the fundamentals to stop the growth in share price because it is still very much under valued.

Update on the AAPL options:

AAPL Aug 20 2011 370.0 Call .... Cost = $8,600 .... Mkt Val = $29,350.... Gain = 241%
AAPL Aug 20 2011 400.0 Call .... Cost = $4,000 .... Mkt Val = $8,600.... Gain = 115%
AAPL Aug 20 2011 410.0 Call .... Cost = $2,450.... Mkt Val = $4,850.... Gain = 97%

Options are performing as I expected but was by no means guaranteed.

[yclept]

Today on Seeking Alpha:

Samsung may top Apple in smartphone sales. Samsung (SSNLF.PK) is estimated to have sold 18M-21M smartphones in Q2, which could put it beyond Apple's (AAPL) sales of 20.3M and make it the sector leader. The estimates from Strategy Analytics show how Google's (GOOG) Android OS - used in Samsung's Galaxy handset - has gained ground on the iPhone and highlights the high stakes involved in the patent disputes between the companies. Separately, Samsung plans to raise investment in memory chips this year despite economic uncertainty hitting component demand.