livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Feb 11, 2011 12:10:35 GMT -5
Getting out with some kind of profit. I'm thinking CSCO won't bottom until early March at best, but I don't know. There might be a dead cat bounce or there might not, but I expect CSCO to trade at sub 18 by the end of the month. Of course with options I don't know how the premiums will fluctuate, so these particular options might hold up ok even if the stock continues down. April Options might be ok because I do expect CSCO to make a run once it bottoms, I just don't think it bottomed yet. Bottom line my only issue with play CSCO long here is the play is too early but you might have enough time for it to recover by April, of course if it is indeed too early of a play that means there would be a better one in the future. I.e. April Calls might be $0.20 on March 1st and they still might go to your reasonable $0.50 target by the end of March.
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Feb 11, 2011 12:16:05 GMT -5
Sold my long silver position today even though I think it will continue to move higher. Just looks a little toppy based on the technicals and no reason to get greedy, I'll take my profits.
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Post by yclept on Feb 11, 2011 12:21:56 GMT -5
I took a stab at CSCO the last time it dropped off the cliff. Bought 11/11/10 @ 20.47; sold 1/25/11 @ 21.29 -- net a little over 3%, which I guess I should have been happy to get. But it felt like watching grass grow. I had intended it as a quick kill -- thought I'd make 5%-10% on a dead-cat bounce that didn't happen.
Today I took a similar chance on EGPT. Bought @ 18.58 (late to the party, but that's nothing new!). I've got a GTC sell on it at 19.3. I'm hoping all those east coast folks who work for a living will hear the news over lunch, come back to work and log into their brokerages to buy enough of this to put me over the sell -- in any case, I expect there will be a bit more action Monday as the weekend folks act on their findings. Obviously I'm not looking for a lot on this trade, but I'm hoping for fast. Fundamentally I can't think of a single reason I would want money actually tied up in anything in Egypt. It looks to me like a place barely able to feed its people with nothing to sell to the rest of the world. Good grief, anybody else remember all the hype in the 60s regarding the Aswan High dam? How it was going to electrify much of Africa and generally turn Egypt into the bread basket of the middle east? The electrical generating revenue remained low because no one ever built the transmission lines it would have required. The associated irrigation system spread bilharzia like crazy (up to 40% of the population for about 20 years -- but since controlled). The impoundment raised salinity of the Nile, and blocked the fertile silt that used to accompany the yearly flood and build the delta. The costs have far outweighed the benefits, and it can't be too much longer before Lake Nasser silts in to the point where the benefits will be non-existent. Nope, it looks to me like camel rides to the pyramids are about all they're going to have left. Well, that and they ought to end up with a big flat salt pan where European manufacturers might want to try for land speed records without having to travel all the way to Bonneville.
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Feb 11, 2011 13:07:05 GMT -5
I think we all do this. We see a big drop and automatically think, hey that's overdone it's got to bounce, but then you go look at the charts for these big drops and other than a quick dead cat bounce you never see that big drop as marking a low. It's always got to drift lower for the next couple of weeks as sellers give up on a bounce and finally liquidate. Our immediate gut reaction is almost always wrong in these cases.
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Post by yclept on Feb 11, 2011 13:52:06 GMT -5
Well, I chickened-out on the EGPT; sold 18.94, bought 18.58, so 1.75% after commissions. As mentioned above, there wasn't a fundamental reason in the world for me to actually want to own this stock. It was only 400 shares (I just can't bring myself to throw big sums at what, for me, is nothing but a game of hot-potato) -- still, it's $130 I didn't have when I woke up this morning. I reckon I'll think of it as about 5 70# bags of kibble -- better than a year's worth of that stuff. A week or so ago I bagged $169 on this same ticker which covers dehydrated chicken chews and canned dog food for at least a year. Reckon Mr. Ruff is going to be one happy dog for quite awhile. Putting it in those terms makes this feel like a very successful endeavor -- after all, what's better than a happy dog?
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 11, 2011 14:18:24 GMT -5
Yclept, The way I see it is if you made a profit in the short term and the cash was just sitting there, then you are ahead of the game. $130 is $130 no matter how you look at it. It is more than the cash would have made just sitting in your account for about a year.
Wait a minute. 1.75% in a day or two? Increase your stake and do this every two days. It would more than double your account in a trading year.
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Post by yclept on Feb 11, 2011 14:41:59 GMT -5
Actually it was 1.75% in about 3 hours. Oh wait let me get my spreadsheet out; hmm 1.75% twice a day times about 240 trading days -- Hurrah, Eldorado! We've found Eldorado! Now if only we could figure out how to take itty-bitty amounts out of big trades every few micro seconds without incurring commissions; why we'd have it made. Oh wait, somebody's already doing that; it seems to cause flash crashes. But why should we care, as long as we can get out and buy back after the crash is over?
Hurrah, hurrah, for Southern rights, hurrah. Hurrah for the Bonnie Blue Flag that wears a single star.
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lovetobike
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Post by lovetobike on Feb 11, 2011 20:03:35 GMT -5
Work has been really busy this past week. My Ag stocks did well today:
DE: +0.95% (total gain: +151%) AGU: +1.35% (total gain: +19.7%) MOS: +2.75% (total gain: +18.95%) POT: +1.77% (total gain: +40.5%)
Have a good weekend everyone!
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Post by yclept on Feb 11, 2011 21:59:29 GMT -5
I picked up some BG this morning. It's already had quite a run, but I still see it as undervalued: P/E 4.69 PEG 0.28 Price/Revenue 0.22 Price/Cash Flow 3.65 Price/Book (MRQ) 0.80 ROA 9.99% ROE 22.32% Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.58 Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.39 NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Bunge Limited (Bunge) is a global agribusiness and food company operating in the farm-to-consumer food chain. The Company is engaged in oilseed processing, producing and supplying of fertilizer to farmers in South America and selling of packaged vegetable oils worldwide. The Company conducts its operations in three divisions: agribusiness, fertilizer and food and ingredients. These divisions include four reportable business segments: agribusiness, fertilizer, edible oil products and milling products. Its agribusiness division is an integrated business principally involved in the purchase, storage, transport, processing and sale of agricultural commodities and commodity products. Its agribusiness operations and assets are primarily located in North and South America, Europe and Asia, and it has marketing and distribution offices worldwide. In November 2010, it acquired Morristown Grain Co., Inc., which included elevators in Morristown, Ind. and Rushville, Ind.
I also like the fact that a lot of their fertilizer business is in South America, and it's food distribution covers just about every part of the world that can afford to buy food (sorry, Africa).
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tyfighter3
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Post by tyfighter3 on Feb 13, 2011 22:00:28 GMT -5
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clarkrl2
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Post by clarkrl2 on Feb 13, 2011 22:55:01 GMT -5
I like BG too. I don't have a position at this time and have been reluctant to pull the trigger on new trades lately because I think there should be some form of a correction. Many stocks are overbought but the RSI on BG is only about 60.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 14, 2011 10:34:14 GMT -5
I sold off my position in WHX this morning at a small profit.
Bought 1K at $18.00 on June14, Sold 1K at $18.29, +1.65% Bought 4K at $17.50 on June 15, Sold 4K at $18.29, +4.56%
In addition they paid $1.33 per share in dividends during the holding period so with the dividends the overall gain was 12% since June.
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Post by yclept on Feb 14, 2011 12:38:07 GMT -5
One other factor on BG is that it goes x-d today (2/14) by 23 cents a share. The yield is only 1.29% a year, so certainly not a deciding factor with respect to the decision to buy the stock or not. Still, with a stock that looks undervalued (P/E TTM = 4.85; PEG = .29 to .66, depending upon whether one uses high or low earnings estimates), I'd just as soon grab the dividend as not. I expect the price to fall a little on Monday to reflect the x-d status, but recover quickly because of the fundamentally undervalued condition indicated above. Total D/E MRQ is .39 which I find as acceptable since ROA is 9.99% which indicates they are earning more on the borrowed money than they are paying in interest. Edit for clarity: P/E -- price/earnings PEG -- P/E divided by EPS growth en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEG_ratioEPS -- earnings per share TTM -- trailing twelve months MRQ -- most recent quarter ROA -- return on assets D/E -- debt/equity
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Feb 14, 2011 12:44:31 GMT -5
I was thinking F would go higher in the bounce before starting a second leg down but today isn't looking real promising for a continuation of the bounce. Still could happen as long as 15.90 holds up but if that were to break it probably means the second leg down is starting. Second leg down should be a more muted reaction of slowly selling off and making a new low. Figure 14.50-14.70 holds and the technicals will indicate a larger move up.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 16, 2011 12:14:55 GMT -5
I picked up 2K shares of TBT this morning at $39.75 in the taxable account. I did a swing trade on this from Dec to Jan and made a few % on the trade. I expect to hold these for a longer time frame as the trend has been upward. Also, the inflation report this morning looked a little grim.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 17, 2011 10:12:48 GMT -5
In an attempt to buy-the-dip and put some cash to work, I have placed buy orders for 1K SOXL at $70.00, 2K WMT at $54.00, and 1K MCD at $75.00. In all likelihood none of these will fill since some new data has shown some further improvement in the economy but I'll leave them out there for the day. Of the issues one is a player and two are boring. LOL. Boring may be good for me for a while.
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Post by mtntigger on Feb 17, 2011 10:50:47 GMT -5
If you are looking at fast food, rovo, I would look at CMG far more than MCD. I know Cali hates this stock due to the high P.E. and I've been thinking the same thing since last summer when it was about $92/share. This last week, I was expected a much higher sell-off after the feds discovered illegals working at many of the stores and after the recent downgrade, but yet it's almost back up to its historical high. Is it expensive? Absolutely, but the market is not saturated (it's only infiltrated 40 states, a little bit of Canada and England. Plus, its products are "nutritious" and taste much better than the competition. (There is a lot of loyalty to Chipotle in Denver since this is where it started, but so did Qdoba and if given the choice, most of my friends and co-workers would prefer to go to Chipotle.) The company is also branching out into asian fast food by November. <Sigh, I may just have to bite the bullet.>
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 17, 2011 11:13:55 GMT -5
I'm not aware of any CMGs in my area so I can't make any comments about my opinion of their product. I also do not know anything about their price point in the market. It just hasn't been a company I have been following in any way. That said, I'll start looking at CMG from a DD standpoint. Wow, I'll say they are expensive .... PE of 47.
I do have a favorable opinion of TXRH but I think their profits will be pressured going forward as they haven't changed any prices in the last two years. They have yet to report for Q4 of 2010.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 17, 2011 11:23:04 GMT -5
I put some Ford shares out there for sale today as it appears to be rolling over. 5K at 16.02 and 5K at 16.03. All of my Ford shares are in a profitable position but I would like to retain some of the profit if Ford continues to decline.
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Feb 17, 2011 11:41:21 GMT -5
Chipotle's product is ok in my opinion. Out here in California there's quality Mexican restaurants everywhere so CMG isn't anything special, but for other parts of the country I can see appeal of it. As for the stock I wouldn't short it right here, I thought it was breaking down a couple of weeks ago but it looks like it got it's momo back. The reality of the stock is it's a Momo Growth play that gets continually squeezed higher by over eager shorts. The day will come when it misses growth numbers and it will quickly revert back to the industry PE. I don't know when that will happen but I can guarantee it will at some point.
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Post by mtntigger on Feb 17, 2011 11:56:16 GMT -5
We're not light in quality Mexican restaurants here either. It's the price, the quick service, and the relatively healthy ingredients in the products that still have people lining out the door at lunchtime even in downtown Denver when we have choices galore. It's like why would you buy from Mickey D's when you can make a much better burger at home or get a better burger at a restaurant. (Oh and no, I'm not trying to pump CMG. I just think it is a much better growth stock than MCD even with the high PE.)
Do you hold that same opinion on BIDU (PE of 84) too? That stock baffles me to no end.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 17, 2011 11:59:07 GMT -5
I'm not much of a Mexican food eater but do occasionally partake of it when I get a chance to do so. DW will not eat Mexican food so I have limited opportunity. About the best we have around here is Don Pablo's but I don't think it falls into the fast food category. I'll do a search on CMG and see where they are around the South Jersey area.
The closest CMG is 20 miles away in Marlton. I looked at their menu and these guys appear to be a ultra fast food place, like a Mexican MCD. Makes sense since they were started by MCD.
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Post by mtntigger on Feb 17, 2011 12:06:44 GMT -5
Nope, there were started by an independent owner in 1996? 1995?. MCD owned a majority of the interest in them for awhile in late 2000s before it went back to concentrating on its own business and sold them off along with Pizza Hut and a few other fast food chains. You are right that it's Mexican fast-food.
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Post by yclept on Feb 17, 2011 12:24:53 GMT -5
Here's a kind of funny story regarding Mexican restaurants. Way back in the 70s, a bunch of us went skiing at Sun Valley. When riding a chair with someone, it's common to ask if they're local (nobody is) or on vacation. Then all the tourist questions of one another -- what restaurants you've tried, etc. Most of the folks I rode with talked glowingly about the Mexican restaurant across from the lodge. So I talked my friends into going there (though I have to admit, several were wary saying things to the effect "Mexican food in Idaho, I don't think so"). It was terrible. Bland, nasty soggy textures where they shouldn't have been, etc. I'd swear most of it came out of cans. So, the rest of the week whenever someone glowed about the Mexican restaurant, I made it a point to ask from whence they came. Inevitably it was someplace like Boston, or Montreal, or Des Moines -- anyway, it was someplace where no life-loving Mexican would have ever set foot, let alone opened a restaurant.
"Much better than Taco Bell" leaves a lot of room for a Mexican restaurant to be far short of "good". I've got to admit I've never been to a Chipotle. Around here it seems the only locations are Bezerkeley and Albany -- neither of which are places I would purposely go, unless to rid myself of a bunch of bucks at Alice Waters' Chez Panisse (why she set up in Bezerkeley, I'll never understand). On the Chipotle website I see a picture on the opening page of a burrito wrapped in plastic and aluminum foil -- not a good sign. On the other hand, I remember a sidewalk vendor in Zihuantanejo whose food was to kill for, especially the grilled pollo. Or the restaurants on Isla Ixtapa that would send a kid out to spear whatever kind of fish you wanted. Zihuantanejo is kind of a long drive, and I refuse to fly again until the TSA is dismantled.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 17, 2011 12:28:27 GMT -5
I'm out of here for the day. Nothing has filled yet but the orders will remain till market close. It is a 60 degree day here and I want to get outside for a while.
BTW: Nice discussion on CMG.
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Post by mtntigger on Feb 17, 2011 13:21:46 GMT -5
Taco Bell... Chipotle... Yum! (not to get confused with YUM of course ). I admit; I really like Chipotle burritos, it's the only fast food I will buy anymore and I usually end up going there at least once a month. For under $6, where else could you get a decent-tasting, 1000-calorie burrito that can easily last two meals? Would I drive 20 miles for one? Nope, but maybe 5 miles although I'm pretty spoiled as I'm within walking distance to the ones near my office and my house. BTW, they aren't wrapped in plastic, just aluminum foil. For fast food, what would you really expect?
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Post by cashflowz on Feb 17, 2011 13:49:33 GMT -5
A change of subject, from Mexican food to minerals: Rovo, I know at one time you mentioned Cliff’s (CLF). You might also want to investigate New Millennium Capital Corp (NML.V or NWLNF on the pink sheets). It has had quite a run, and is, of course, speculative, but it does apparently have some really extensive iron ore deposits in Canada. Tata Steel owns some 27%, I believe. Plus, just recently, Jennings Capital Inc. and Credit Suisse Securities agreed to purchase 14,285,715 shares of common at $3.50 per share. It's selling for a little over $4 today. There is a lot of information on a Seeking Alpha blog at seekingalpha.com/instablog/510561-james-duade/129082-new-millennium-capital-north-america-s-emerging-iron-ore-company#comments_header The Yahoo message board also has some pretty good comments on this stock.
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IPAfan
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Post by IPAfan on Feb 17, 2011 22:06:27 GMT -5
The talk on Cliff's relates to my position in TTT since the iron ore royalty is on a mine owned by Cliff's. Apparently production and royalties are up (according to the Cliff's report) which looks good for the royalty in the near term.
The TTT price has rallied quite a bit. I started buying at $7.20 and have since received a distribution of KHDHF worth $1.08 right now. Basically the book value gap has closed plus the KHDHF shares trade above book value. With that said I think the company is growing quickly, and is probably trading a small discount to book value due to any recent growth since the last filings.
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2kids10horses
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Post by 2kids10horses on Feb 17, 2011 23:24:55 GMT -5
I'm still long URTY, the 3x Russell 2000. Been long since 12/31/10. I actually planned to buy it for a one day trade, take advantage of the first day of the month rally. But, held on.
I can't complain, it's up 14% YTD. I'm raising my stop as it goes up. (ETrade won't do a "trailing stop" on URTY, so I have to track it, and update my stop manually. Not a big deal.)
My reason for holding URTY is that small stocks always seem to lead the way out of recessions. Larger stocks lead later on during the recovery.
Steady as she goes...
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 18, 2011 10:08:03 GMT -5
2&10, Nice play on URTY.
Nothing traded yesterday so all the orders were for naught. I had canceled the MCD order as we were discussing fast food. So I changed plans today and entered an order for 500 AAPL at 357.00.
AAPL has a P/E of 20 and a PEG of 1.04 and appears to be a much safer play than CMG with growth going forward. IPhone sales should improve in this quarter as they now sell through Verizon as well as ATT. I guess the one big unknown going forward is the health of Jobs.
CSCO appears to moving a bit today and is up 1.25% as of now. I have no shares of CSCO but I do have some Call options at $20. These options are in the red but are quickly moving upward towards a green status. Currently at $0.31 against my buy price of $0.36.
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