Bets on the market response if the Gov't shutsdown

[lovetobike]

?

Is anyone taking profits, getting into the "short ETFs" in case the Gov't shutdown really happens this weekend? Or do you think the market will ignore it like it is ignoring everything else?

[rovo]

I don't recall what the market did the last time we had a shutdown of the government. I have been trying to get out of some short term positions in which I got trapped but my long term stuff is going to stay put. If I can get out of the short terms, maybe tomorrow, it will give me some cash on hand and I'll be able to take a long position if we see a big decline in the overall market due to a shutdown.

I don't think we will see a shutdown. Lots of big talk but let us see what happens. Most likely a continuation, again, if we can't get any budget passed.

[rovo]

lovetobike, I deleted the second post. I hope you don't mind.

[soycapital]

I'm not doing anything special due to a possible shutdown. I'm still 70% long equities. I've been selling some gainers lately because I think we are due for a dose of reality but I've been thinking that for months now. Pretty much have been forcing myself to stay in and long. Been shopping but little buying. Did buy GD recently when they took a 5% fall from an accident. It is a defensive type of stock as most of mine are at this point.

[yclept]

Personally I don't think the market will take a government shutdown (if it occurs) very well. I see it as more of a trigger event than a economic catastrophe in itself; the seeds of the economic catastrophe are already sown and I don't think the market can continue for much longer to ignore them. If a shutdown happens, it will be indicative of another two years of political stalemate wherein nothing gets done. That means that until 2012 when the Tea Party gets kicked back down the rat hole from whence it scurried, no budget progress will be made. By that point, the bankrupt economies will be referred to by a modified acronym PIIGSUS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, US) -- catchy, since pigs are in the genus Sus.
Near term, the $5 gasoline next month is going to be the straw that broke the camel's (genus Camelus, not Sus) back.
But then, I guess there's always the chance that I'm wrong! I was wrong about something else once before, but I've forgotten what it was.
If I am right, there will be big money to be made on the short side. It'll be like shooting fish in a barrel. I'd really like to get on the right side of at least one market crash before I kick the bucket. May this be the one!

[burger]

I opened a position today in DXD (2X Short Dow ETF) in anticipation of them not getting a deal done. I see it as hedging my long positions a bit.

[yclept]

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate", or "Abandon all hope, ye who enter here" -- Dante Alighieri (1265-1321)