AGNC and TMP

[ripvanwinkle]

Looking for a good dividend stock to put in my portfolio. I came accross this one - AGNC. It's got a 10 rating.
Any insight on this one. Does anyone own it? Also looking at TMP.

[yclept]

I owned AGNC until a little while ago (sold for 29.9 just before this last dividend). I certainly enjoyed the rate of return on the dividends I got earlier, but decided to get out before the inevitable drop that would accompany this last one. I don't know what rating system you are referring to, so can't comment on the "10". By and large I don't pay much attention to analyst ratings -- I find them all a day late and a dollar short.
I haven't looked at AGNC fundamentals since, but data in early March showed they are moving towards an unsustainable situation. Their payout ratio is too high. As I saw it then, they had enough cash to make this dividend and the next (assuming income remains about the same), then they are going to have to cut the dividend.
Hell hath no fury like stock owners who own a stock for high income return when they see that dividend cut. For an example, look at NLY back in 2002 when they cut their dividend from $.45/sh to $.36/sh. The market didn't wait for the much lower dividends that followed, it chopped it in half almost immediately.
Obviously, I don't know if the same will happen to AGNC, but neither did I want to stick around to find out.
I'm not familiar with the other one, TMP. A quick look at it now shows me that it's not in the same class of "really high" dividend return as AGNC. It does have a long history of steady payout. Personally I would avoid the 13.43 P/E even though it's a bit lower than it's industry and sector -- the 1.51 PEG leaves me kind of wary. Again, this is just a quick look -- couldn't find their payout ratio right off the bat, but since they've been paying this for so long I assume it's less than one (which is good). Personally I wouldn't pay that P/E to get a 3.25% yield. I think you can probably get almost that on a CD nowadays, can't you? TMP does have a 24 day short interest ratio. If all those shorts know what they're doing, it bodes ill for this stock. On the other hand, if something happens to force them to cover, it will add a lot of rocket fuel to a subsequent rise. Damned if you do, damned if you don't!

Here are some screened relatively high-yield stocks for investigation. Sorry, I don't have time to make it into a decent table, but hopefully it will be sensible enough:

Ticker Name Last Rank MktCap Yield5YAvg Div3YCGr% ROE%TTM PayRatioA Beta Yield
EVN Eaton Vance Municipal Income 11.75 93.9 266.07 7 6.08 10.71 73.99 0.3 8.43
NLY Annaly Capital Management, In 17.46 93.3 14040.73 10.67 36.59 13.11 0.13 0.32 14.2
MFA MFA Financial, Inc. 8.18 91.95 2832.79 8.65 28.96 11.8 95.95 0.37 11.49
CMO Capstead Mortgage Corporation 12.86 89.83 1029.08 10.58 64.37 12.61 99.88 0.45 12.75
PTNR Partner Communications Compan 19.26 82.4 3043.97 8.01 17.9 96.06 97.91 0.67 11.14
TNE Tele Norte Leste Participacoe 17.98 75.02 9560.17 9.33 6.26 12.13 24.66 0.84 9.8
LPHI Life Partners Holdings, Inc. 7.81 74.75 145.61 3.24 85.36 45.91 54.04 0.85 10.24
CLCT Collectors Universe, Inc. 14.2 72.72 112.12 4.54 30.5 71.13 35.36 0.9 9.15

I don't own any of these, nor have I checked them out for awhile. From past investigation, I would skip TNE (wierd financials). NLY is probably the best of them, but be sure to check their payout ratio and income statements -- wouldn't want to buy into a repeat of 2002.