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Post by yclept on Jan 17, 2011 20:34:19 GMT -5
AAPL and Jobs obviously did a good job of keeping his medical leave secret as the chart for the stock was steadily up last week. I'm going to try to short it pre-market tomorrow morning if I can force myself to get up early enough. This is going to drop like a rock tomorrow, but if one is not early getting the short, it'll be hell to pay as the volatility is bound to be crazy.
Edit: Shares for shorting should be readily available from any broker. As of Friday's close the short interest ratio was only 0.72 days. The darn Europeans were able to beat us to the punch because of the stupid holiday. The least King could have done would have been to have been born in some month with better weather. Who the hell wants a holiday in January. I suggest we move his birthday to August -- we need a holiday in August. He's beyond caring one way or the other.
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ModE98
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Post by ModE98 on Jan 17, 2011 20:42:25 GMT -5
Yes indeed, will be an interesting day for AAPL. This appears serious for Steve. Not good vibes at all. Good luck tomorrow, Yclept.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Jan 17, 2011 22:10:51 GMT -5
This is the news item.
January 17, 2011
Apple Media Advisory
Apple CEO Steve Jobs today sent the following email to all Apple employees:
Team,
At my request, the board of directors has granted me a medical leave of absence so I can focus on my health. I will continue as CEO and be involved in major strategic decisions for the company.
I have asked Tim Cook to be responsible for all of Apple’s day to day operations. I have great confidence that Tim and the rest of the executive management team will do a terrific job executing the exciting plans we have in place for 2011.
I love Apple so much and hope to be back as soon as I can. In the meantime, my family and I would deeply appreciate respect for our privacy.
Steve
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Post by yclept on Jan 18, 2011 7:35:52 GMT -5
Well, I got up at 4:00 AM. I can't figure out what's going on. Scottrade shows bids and asks down a little below $330 and a volume of 347,000. $330 is about 5% below Friday's close -- not nearly as severe as I thought would happen. I tried to put in an order to short it, but the system wouldn't take it. Maybe they don't allow short orders in pre-market. I could call them, but the whole thing is beginning to smell wrong to me, so I think I'll just go back to bed.
I did sell QQQQ @ 56.65 which was a little lower than it closed on Friday (closed at 57).
Good Luck Bad Luck!
A farmer's horse ran away one day and all the villagers came to him saying, Oh what bad luck you've had! Your horse that you need to do your work is gone!
The farmer shrugged his shoulders and said, Good luck, bad luck. Who knows?
Several days later, the farmer's horse returned, followed by a herd of wild horses!
Oh what good luck you have, cried the same villagers! Not only has your horse returned, he has brought you many horses!
The farmer again shrugged his shoulders and said, Good luck, bad luck. Who knows?
One day not long after, the farmer's son was trying to break one of the wild horses. He was thrown off the horse and broke his leg.
Oh what bad luck you have! Cried the villagers. Now your son has a broken leg. Who will help you?
The farmer shrugged his shoulders and said, Good luck, bad luck. Who knows?
Not long after, as the son was recuperating, an army came through the village and took all the young males to fight in a war in another region. They did not take the farmer's son because of his broken leg.
Oh what good luck you have! The villagers cried once again. Your son has been spared being taken off to war because of his broken leg!
The farmer shrugged his shoulders and said, Good luck, bad luck. Who knows?
I know I'm going back to bed. Enough of this foolishness!
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Post by yclept on Jan 18, 2011 7:48:19 GMT -5
The premarket volume is already over half of what AAPL trades in a normal day. So I think it's safe to say (as in the Mazda commercials), somthin's up.
So, I rethought the situation. I don't know why I can't short it now with Scottrade, but figured what the heck, I don't expect it has any chance of going up from this level today. So I put in a day limit order to short it at $329 which is a couple of bucks below the level it's trading right now in pre-market.
AAPL is the most overvalued company I can think of. I don't expect I'll go too far wrong on this short assuming it fills at the open.
Now, back to bed!
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gambler
Well-Known Member
"the education of a man is never completed until he dies" Robert E. Lee
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Post by gambler on Jan 18, 2011 11:39:24 GMT -5
I got in on the short and did very well doing,limit short or longs worry me. do you use stops? what % do you look for? I try to get 1% and leave alot on the table
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Post by yclept on Jan 18, 2011 12:34:24 GMT -5
Well, woke up again. Ignored normal alarm at 6:30. I ended up shorting the thirty shares at 329.00. I see it's now at 337.28, so I'm down about 2-1/2% or $256. Funny, the precautionary sale of QQQQ this morning at 56.95 (now sitting 56.94) netted me something a little over $300, so the cash account is about breaking even on the day.
Obviously I took a position that was counter to may people's religion, so rational behavior doesn't play a part (neither on my part nor the stock holders part). I'm irrational for insisting I'm right and the market wrong. The AAPL shareholders are irrational in holding a stock that is seriously overvalued and in a company whose competitors seem to be rapidly catching them and providing product at a lower price. Then there is the whole proprietary operating system philosophy versus open systems -- a battle that I think will eventually doom AAPL.
All that aside, I think I'll go down and make breakfast. I believe AAPL reports earnings after the bell today which will probably be good. If this thing hasn't taken a nose dive by the time I cook and eat breakfast, I'll just close it and say to myself "there you go again"!
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Post by yclept on Jan 18, 2011 12:53:09 GMT -5
The heck with waiting awhile. Bought to cover @ $340.25; loss of 3.4% or about $350 (including commissions). Reckon that's why we keep bets like that to "not-the-farm"! When tilting windmills, one must take care to use a lance with an expendable tip.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2011 13:09:33 GMT -5
the trading software i use has an average win rate of 60%....
if it's win rate was only 50% i'd still use it because it's claim to fame is the way it measures risk versus reward on every trade....
i don't like apple or it's over priced products but i do like trading and making money.....
during the first half hour of trading this morning it had a very low risk stop with an extremely high reward target price...
i bought ...... this time i was lucky ---- 40% of the time i'm not lucky and get stopped out with small losses.....
PS:
i always feel like a dummie, a dolt, or a sheep when i follow this trading software... maybe i'll get use to it someday.... this morning wifey said "you want to buy aaple???" "you hate apple."
19 year old son helps support apple and buys their toys....
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ModE98
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Post by ModE98 on Jan 18, 2011 16:45:55 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2011 16:52:28 GMT -5
That was a short lived drop fro APPLE.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Jan 18, 2011 17:15:24 GMT -5
Yup. Blow out earnings can do a lot for the share price. On the other hand, look at the price quote for CREE.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2011 9:05:02 GMT -5
could be really wrong, ??
sold AAPL in pre-market @$349.80 made 14.50 per share
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