investment growth chart?

[schildi]

Any ideas?
I am looking for an investment growth chart (that includes re-invested dividends). I remember msn used to have that, but not anymore as far as I can see.

Thanks!

[bimetalaupt]

What I found is the only way to do that is use something like Mathmatica or Gnumic with Random number generation and the given range of growth.. Do not forget the negitive growth years like 2008 to find a true picture of what growth will mean.. Also SD of PE.. Earning sill have to correlate to M2 and Overnight lending rate by the Federal Reserve.. IE correction for inflation.. So a good number for IBM would have been inflation +8% return for the 50 years I owned her... So with a depression number of -4% inflation then 8 -4 = 4% etc..

Just a thought,
Bruce

[schildi]

Jan 16, 2011 22:36:16 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

What I found is the only way to do that is use something like Mathmatica or Gnumic with Random number generation and the given range of growth.. Do not forget the negitive growth years like 2008 to find a true picture of what growth will mean.. Also SD of PE.. Earning sill have to correlate to M2 and Overnight lending rate by the Federal Reserve.. IE correction for inflation.. So a good number for IBM would have been inflation +8% return for the 50 years I owned her... So with a depression number of -4% inflation then 8 -4 = 4% etc..

Just a thought,
Bruce

Bruce, thanks for your reply, but unfortunately, I have no idea what you said.

[bimetalaupt]

It is all about stat... Or how long is your tail...Take a 50 year very long term growth.. 8% will be great total return for a stock = about a PE of 12.5 with what the English call earning return of 8%. Growth is always related to M2 in the long run.. So you need an Idea of who while buy what and what is the max size the area,..

So you have three terms in growth.. Open development.. Growth Phase and then maturity phase.. Tree do not grow to the sky.. There is limits.. Limits to growth in China or Japan.. Remember where the PE for the average Japanese firms was 50.. After 20 years the PE is about 10!! Look at the history of Wal-mart.. Sold out at PE of 35as it was priced out of the growth curve. Now the PE is 12.. Same Price but less growth to come.

So if you are looking at a growth of 20 and PE of say 30 You needed to reduce the PE and Growth as it matures.. IT uses Random number come in as the market reacts to the General Inflation/ growth of m2.. Yes it takes a complex math Model to do that. It is based on Generational Equations ( also know as solve)...or Omnidirectional Equations ( vector like Victor the Vector or M2).( related to random from history).. Growth and inflation!!!

Just a thought,
Bruce

[bimetalaupt]

Jan 17, 2011 0:16:00 GMT -5 schildi said:

Jan 16, 2011 22:36:16 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

What I found is the only way to do that is use something like Mathmatica or Gnumic with Random number generation and the given range of growth.. Do not forget the negitive growth years like 2008 to find a true picture of what growth will mean.. Also SD of PE.. Earning sill have to correlate to M2 and Overnight lending rate by the Federal Reserve.. IE correction for inflation.. So a good number for IBM would have been inflation +8% return for the 50 years I owned her... So with a depression number of -4% inflation then 8 -4 = 4% etc..

Just a thought,
Bruce

One more thought on this , Value Line uses a corrected Beta to reflect the fact that stocks beta has a tendency to return to one over years. As it returns to one the total return will equal the markets return over years , Like IBM that may be 50 years. The above normal growth is only for 15-25 years then it returns to a normal growth. The PE will over time be reduced to a normal PE of the market..

Both IBM and Wal-Mart shows this over the last 40 to 50 years. The effect will be to normality the PEG to about 1. ValuePro.net has also some good math to discount cash flow and give you a discounted value. Wal-mart is about 99.92 discounted cash flow and IBM is 376.75. OK AAPL is out of the park at $1635.. I think they have too long an extra income time frame.. JMO. Any number they use you can change. ( Above used Equity risk premium of 3% that give a higher value then 4.5% used in the valuation class I took.).
I posted a chart that shows some Idea of the real nature of the market vs spending and savings . You need to use two sides of the coin and that is the real reason for the 60/40 or 50/50 system..
I hope this is clearer then above, It was a fast note in the middle of the night,
Bruce


Bruce, thanks for your reply, but unfortunately, I have no idea what you said.

Attachments:

[phil5185]

politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2006/12/sp-500-at-your-fingertips.html

Maybe this one will be of help - it's specifically the SP500 Index. It gives the value with or w/o div's - and with or w/o the inflation correction.

[yclept]

You can download spreadsheets of prices from Yahoo, one column of which will be "adjusted close" which takes dividends into account. From that you can use the charting function in the spreadsheet to draw the chart. It's a bit of work, but it ought to work.