Another Recession?

[stayput]

Is yet another recession on its way to a state near you?

[texasredneck]

NO just a continuation of the last one which never ended.

[stayput]

Let's see. There seems to be only two people on this board, at any given time, so I guess the Nazi tyrants made it a place that nobody wants to come to anymore. It's a shame. On MSN there were thousands. This is what happens when the wrong people are given a little bit of power, and stifle true interaction and free speech. It should be a lessen for anyone creating boards like this. Stop making the Socialist/tyrant A-Holes moderators or you'll be creating a ghost town like this board.

[Peace Of Mind]

Or maybe, at this time, nobody else agrees with your take that we are in a recession, or will be. I don't. At least not in our area or the people I know. They've been putting in pools, buying houses, going on vacation, having parties, getting raises and life has been back to normal. Houses are selling and there haven't been any new foreclosures in our neighborhood (we are in Florida). The only people having trouble that I know personally always have trouble solely based on their bad decisions and over spending or substance abuse and addiction problems.

Things are not like they were during the madness and unsustainable home price escalations, etc. but that was not "real" in the first place. That was all smoke and mirrors. Had people lived their lives (for the most part) as they had before the bubble they may have remained in good shape after reality set back in.

I'm sure medical bills, death, or job losses still occur that cause people financial trouble, but that is rare too in our area.

I hope things improve for you soon!

[decoy409]

Well Stay Put,we never exited the ongoing.

And that's strange?

#4 Peace of Mind "Or maybe, at this time, nobody else agrees with your take that we are in a recession, or will be. I don't. At least not in our area or the people I know. They've been putting in pools, buying houses, going on vacation, having parties, getting raises and life has been back to normal. Houses are selling and there haven't been any new foreclosures in our neighborhood (we are in Florida). The only people having trouble that I know personally always have trouble solely based on their bad decisions and over spending or substance abuse and addiction problems.

Things are not like they were during the madness and unsustainable home price escalations, etc. but that was not "real" in the first place. That was all smoke and mirrors. Had people lived their lives (for the most part) as they had before the bubble they may have remained in good shape after reality set back in.

I'm sure medical bills, death, or job losses still occur that cause people financial trouble,but that is rare too in our area.

I hope things improve for you soon!"

What's strange is that the 'outside of your window' down in old Florida as example.

And we don't see those big red roses or smell them.

May 10,2012 - Florida foreclosure case could slam banks

4closurefraud.org/2012/05/10/reuters-florida-foreclosure-case-could-slam-banks-bony-v-pino/

May 9,2012 - Florida Metro Areas Lead Nation in Foreclosures, Delinquencies

www.wctv.tv/home/headlines/Florida_Metro_Areas_Lead_Nation_in_Foreclosures_Delinquencies_150842365.html

May 3,2012 - America's long-term unemployed: 'For those looking for work, it's very bleak'

www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/03/us-long-term-unemployed-obama

CEO's hey. Go figure.

May 4,2012 - Reported Unemployment Rates Do Not Reflect the Truth

excerpt - People Not In Labor Force Soar By 522,000, Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1981

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2012 08:40 -0400

It is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000. This is the highest on record.

HOWEVER!!!!

The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%.

Labor force participation Rate:(see chart)

blog.beliefnet.com/watchwomanonthewall/2012/05/reported-unemployment-rates-do-not-reflect-the-truth.html


Now,we could also go into the flux of so called creation between Texas and Fl. however we find that not to be as strong as the hype portrays it to be. Numbers are skewed for starters.

Second why have a look at the traveling caravan by the numbers of NEW entrants into Texas and Florida looking for work. And people that have put the hammer in on others that people need to venture out and seek employment elsewhere since there is none in their area. Why thost that stated such should be filled with glee at the onslaught of NEW faces coming to join them.

Once again we remind all that this is a numbers game. And those numbers reflect Greater vs Less.

Coming to Market Talk you get the open scoop and not the generic packaaged black and white box.

Piece of Mind.I like old Fl. why lived down there in various locations 4 different times.
Why down below Port Charlette (Gulf Coast side),there is a lot of room to roam out in the country,swamp land.
Have to travel quite a ways with all that open land to come across neighbors.
What part are you in? As things as you say are RARE to be happening to folks.

[decoy409]

Peace fo mind, no comment as to your neck of the woods. Figures.

[Peace Of Mind]

Hi Decoy. It was my birthday yesterday and it was Mother's Day weekend and I was either busy or wanting to have fun. I was not ignoring you. Actually - I forgot all about this thread.

I'm not going to give you my location but I will tell you this: I know you love to argue. So you will have to do that with yourself. I also know I could tell you the amount of murders in our area or my friends and family's areas - and I'm sure you will spend hours searching the web to show how I'm wrong. Then I could waste hours showing how I may be right and on and on. That is not fun to me. But my opinions and experiences and views are just that. Mine.

So you can continue to live in your world and I will continue to live in mine. I can only hope yours improves soon! Have a nice day!

[mmhmm]

May 14, 2012 8:12:50 GMT -5 decoy409 said:

Peace fo mind, no comment as to your neck of the woods. Figures.

Decoy, for the record, nobody here has to tell you where they live. That's private information and the failure to provide it to you, or anyone else, is strictly the decision of the posting individual. There are very good reasons for keeping this information confidential; especially, on the internet.

[decoy409]

"I know you love to argue. So you will have to do that with yourself. I also know"

Excuse me,but I was not arguing and that is a great way to incinuate things.

As far as by the numbers we need not spend hours on anything. That left us years ago. Why we only need a minute or two as we like to stay informed and we like to follow the trail of b.s. That trail of b.s. has been leaking and stinking for a very long time.

When the b.s. stops and REFORM takes place,we know the b.s. is being dealt with.

Why those that like to honor b.s.,well we do feel bad for them but that's how it goes.

mmmm,when one states the conditions as they are,many a moderators have been on me in the past to show links and FACTS. Just thought since there are roses galore where piece of mind is at,that they would like to share is all.
As it's RARE as stated,'I'm sure medical bills, death, or job losses still occur that cause people financial trouble, but that is rare too in our area.'

Have a nice day.

[Virgil Showlion]

Stay Put: your "A-hole moderators" comment can stay up this time because I realize you're venting.

Here's the sad reality: we have a three strikes system; many key posters on MT struck out after five, even seven strikes; half of everyone left took off in protest; Proboards forced us to ban two more; everybody interested in hard core investing had migrated to IBB on the old MSN board, which happened in 2010. We have absolutely zero new people coming in, and at least until v5 is out and we can get some SEO or advertising working for us, we have absolutely no way of changing this.

Once a forum loses critical mass, it's over. The economic discussions are now taking place over in P&M, with Decoy, the Day Trader Thread, and a few discussions here and there being all that remains.

Regarding Decoy: some insist that if I ban him, traffic will increase. Some insist that if I ban him, I'll have denied him his right to speak and killed off the only traffic MT has left. For now, I've made my decision that he has a right to present his theories. He stays in his one thread 99% of the time, and we have a very useful "Ignore" feature. His posts are economically relevant, and I believe it would be doing him an injustice to kick him to the curb.

Not only do I feel this is the right thing to do, we had a democratic vote when the board was first set up, and the content of Decoy's posts falls well within the standards that we accepted as legitimate content.

Maybe we'll be able to attract new blood and re-establish critical mass after the release of v5. It supposedly has features where Proboards will accept money to promote our site using their affiliates. For now, we're limited in what we can do.

The next jab against the mods gets your post deleted and a day ban. "No mod bashing" is a rule. It's there for a reason.

Please don't flout it.

- Virgil (A-Hole Mod)

[Driftr]

I'm not asking for a Decoy ban mind you, but if you or one of the other mods do send him on his merry way some day, I will commit to making at least one post a quarter in the Dividend plays that pay thread that is still here.

[blebs]

For some people, the world will forever be seen with rose colored glasses. The truth however, is far different then what some would like you to believe.

[jarhead1976]

The sunshine state and I do live there. Where 45% of all homes are worth less than what the mortgage is. Under water , Tsunami comes to mind.

Jacksonville Citrus times
BUSINESS

45% of Florida homes ‘underwater’
Posted by Special on Dec 13th, 2010

Some 45 percent of 4.45 million Florida homes with a mortgage — more than 2 million — have more in mortgaged debt than they’re worth if they were to be sold in today’s market.
In Jacksonville, the story is similar — 43.6 percent, or 145,316 mortgaged residential properties — were mortgaged for more than they were worth.
An additional 5.2 percent, or 17,175 percent, were teetering on the edge of negative equity in Jacksonville. The number of homeowners almost in negative equity but not quite there was 4.1 percent statewide.

[Driftr]

So 45% underwater 18 months ago. Got anything more recent? Situation improving or deteriorating?

[decoy409]

Driftr, May 10,2012 - Florida foreclosure case could slam banks

4closurefraud.org/2012/05/10/reut....ks-bony-v-pino/

May 9,2012 - Florida Metro Areas Lead Nation in Foreclosures, Delinquencies

www.wctv.tv/home/headlines/Florid...._150842365.html

How much more recent would you like?

[jarhead1976]

Drifter this is the most current look. I could find.

CoreLogic: 28% of U.S. Homes now under water
Mar 1 2012, 2:23PM
With home prices nationwide continuing to decline it is not surprising that the number of homeowners who are underwater (i.e. owe more on their mortgages than the value of their home) continues to increase.  CoreLogic released Quarter Four data this morning showing that 11.1 million or 22.8 percent of all U.S. homes with a mortgage were in a negative equity position compared to 10.7 million in the third quarter and an additional 2.5 million borrowers were in a near-negative position.  Together these negative and near-negative homeowners own 27.8 percent of all mortgaged residential properties compared to a total of 27.1 percent in Quarter Three.   The total mortgage debt outstanding these properties rose from $2.7 trillion in the third quarter to $2.8 trillion in the fourth quarter.

Not all negative equity is the result of declining prices.  Some mortgages are underwater because of negative amortization of their mortgages, non-payment, or restructuring of debt to avoid foreclosure.  The level of negative equity is a concern because it is at the root of many mortgage defaults.

CoreLogic said that, based solely on loan-to-value ratios (LTV), it estimated that 18 million borrowers might have been eligible for refinancing under the guidelines of the original Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP).  Under LTV guidelines for the newly expanded HARP which removed the earlier 125 percent LTV cap, over 22 million borrowers may now be eligible to refinance.

Borrowers with multiple liens on their homes are more likely to be in a negative position.  Of the 11.1 million underwater borrowers, 6.7 million have only a first mortgage lien.  This group has an average mortgage balance of $219,000 and negative equity of $51,000 or a LTV of 130 percent.  These underwater borrowers represent only 18 percent of all borrowers with only a first lien on their home.  Forty-one percent of these borrowers had an LTV in the fourth quarter of 80 percent or higher.

Among all borrowers with both a first and second lien on their home 4.4 million or 39 percent were in a negative position.  Their average mortgage balance was $306,000 and the average LTV was 138 percent, i.e. negative equity of $84,000.  Over 60 percent of borrowers with two liens had combined LTVs of 80 percent or higher.

The highest percentage of underwater homes is in Nevada where 61 percent of mortgaged homes have negative equity followed by Arizona (48 percent), Florida (44   percent) Michigan (35 percent) and Georgia (33 percent.)  Not surprisingly these states have all ranked high in the incidence of foreclosures.   

[Driftr]

So 15 months later and 1% fewer homes in Florida were underwater. Progress I guess. But not much.

[decoy409]

Excerpt - Florida continues to outpace the largest 100 cities, with foreclosure rates nearly three times higher. While the rate of large cities has been roughly 1.8 percent, the rate has risen 5.9 percentage points in Miami. Other Florida cities have also outpaced national norms with rates climbing 5.4 points in Orlando and 5.1 points in Jacksonville.

www.wctv.tv/home/headlines/Florid...._150842365.html

'Outpace',is certainly progress!

Yes Driftr that is progress.

[stayput]

Virgil Serenity, you and a couple of other Mods on all of these boards are a true pleasure. My statement was not meant to be painted with as broad a brush as it came out. For that I do render both my apology and this correction. As you know from countless examples, some of the Mods have repeatedly proven to be incapable of objectivity with both their comments that they make against posters that they disagree with and the actions that they take against the same.

Maybe I'm archaic, but I believe that an umpire has got to be 100% impartial for the games to have any real relevance, and for the games to attract the huge masses that they do. When word gets out that the games are "fixed", they quickly lose their appeal.

[mmhmm]

May 15, 2012 10:13:39 GMT -5 @jarhead1976 said:

Drifter this is the most current look. I could find.

CoreLogic: 28% of U.S. Homes now under water
Mar 1 2012, 2:23PM
With home prices nationwide continuing to decline it is not surprising that the number of homeowners who are underwater (i.e. owe more on their mortgages than the value of their home) continues to increase.  CoreLogic released Quarter Four data this morning showing that 11.1 million or 22.8 percent of all U.S. homes with a mortgage were in a negative equity position compared to 10.7 million in the third quarter and an additional 2.5 million borrowers were in a near-negative position.  Together these negative and near-negative homeowners own 27.8 percent of all mortgaged residential properties compared to a total of 27.1 percent in Quarter Three.   The total mortgage debt outstanding these properties rose from $2.7 trillion in the third quarter to $2.8 trillion in the fourth quarter.

Not all negative equity is the result of declining prices.  Some mortgages are underwater because of negative amortization of their mortgages, non-payment, or restructuring of debt to avoid foreclosure.  The level of negative equity is a concern because it is at the root of many mortgage defaults.

CoreLogic said that, based solely on loan-to-value ratios (LTV), it estimated that 18 million borrowers might have been eligible for refinancing under the guidelines of the original Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP).  Under LTV guidelines for the newly expanded HARP which removed the earlier 125 percent LTV cap, over 22 million borrowers may now be eligible to refinance.

Borrowers with multiple liens on their homes are more likely to be in a negative position.  Of the 11.1 million underwater borrowers, 6.7 million have only a first mortgage lien.  This group has an average mortgage balance of $219,000 and negative equity of $51,000 or a LTV of 130 percent.  These underwater borrowers represent only 18 percent of all borrowers with only a first lien on their home.  Forty-one percent of these borrowers had an LTV in the fourth quarter of 80 percent or higher.

Among all borrowers with both a first and second lien on their home 4.4 million or 39 percent were in a negative position.  Their average mortgage balance was $306,000 and the average LTV was 138 percent, i.e. negative equity of $84,000.  Over 60 percent of borrowers with two liens had combined LTVs of 80 percent or higher.

The highest percentage of underwater homes is in Nevada where 61 percent of mortgaged homes have negative equity followed by Arizona (48 percent), Florida (44   percent) Michigan (35 percent) and Georgia (33 percent.)  Not surprisingly these states have all ranked high in the incidence of foreclosures.   

That's really sad, jarhead. I can almost understand why someone would walk out on a home that's underwater through absolutely no fault of the owner. Those who have more than one lien might have to look to themselves for the fault, depending on why the second loan was taken; however, there are some who just got caught on the downswing. Those folks probably feel they'd be stupid to stay in a home that isn't worth what they owe on it and doesn't appear likely to be anywhere in the foreseeable future.