Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 21, 2011 22:59:17 GMT -5
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Jul 22, 2011 9:06:56 GMT -5
I have some PTY in my IRA. It's up a little under 20% since I bought it back in Dec'10. Pays monthly dividend. Currently yielding about 6.8%.
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verrip1
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Post by verrip1 on Jul 22, 2011 10:01:22 GMT -5
With Treasury yields so low, people have had to look elsewhere to generate income. The spread of Corporates is very attractive. Even AAAs look good, but the sweet spot is probably more near to BBB.
I'm still holding a few Ford and GMAC bonds bought before the bailouts at literally pennies on the dollar. They are near enough to par that I've made most of my money, but I'm keeping them with their 6.8 to 7.5% coupons. My last one matures in 5 years.
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 22, 2011 13:28:46 GMT -5
Eric Jacobson finance.yahoo.com/news/Bond-Funds-Cut-the-ms-3714355402.html?x=0Bond Funds Cut the Cord The bond market's getting even more popular. Despite a gut-wrenching sell-off from late 2010 through January of this year, FLOWS INTO BOND FUNDS HAVE BEEN MASSIVE. Taxable-bond funds took in more than $92 billion during the first half of 2011 alone according to Morningstar estimates. And even though municipal-fund flows were net negative by roughly $22 billion for the same period, both groups are still way in the black since December 2008, several months before the financial crisis began to ease. In short, investors are pouring into bonds on an unprecedented scale. With more than $685 billion of inflows to bond funds since December 2008, WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND ANOTHER PERIOD THAT COMES CLOSE, even when adjusted for inflation. A Brave New World? If history is any guide, a lot of investors may not know exactly what they're getting into. In fact, there are notable differences in the way those dollars are being put to work today relative to how things were done in the precrisis era. Bond managers who dominate the market for "core" strategies (the bulk of the funds in Morningstar's intermediate-term bond category) have made a clear move to shift assets beyond the sectors--such as U.S. Treasuries, agency mortgages, and high-quality corporates--historically represented in Barclays' Aggregate U.S. Bond Index. Most of their flagship mutual funds have long had some flexibility to invest in high-yield, NON-U.S. (developed), and EMERGING-MARKETS debt, but the allocations they're making these days are larger and many managers tell Morningstar these aren't temporary moves. A combination of rock-bottom U.S. interest rates and worry about the nation's fiscal health is driving managers to higher-yielding assets. In some cases, the argument is that the healthy BALANCE SHEETS of many FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS offer better long-term protection than Uncle Sam's does. The numbers are stark. PIMCO Total Return (NASDAQ:PTTDX - News), for example, had 6% of assets in high yield and a whopping 24% in non-U.S. debt at the end of June. The latter number is especially notable given that nearly half of it is made up of emerging-markets debt. Those are easily the largest combined out-of-index bets PIMCO has made in years. And while large high-yield and non-U.S. weightings have typically been sufficient to push the flagship Loomis Sayles Bond (NASDAQ:LSBRX - News) into Morningstar's multisector category, that fund's May LEVELS of 32% and 27%, respectively, are still EYE-POPPING. The same trend shows up in JPMorgan Core Plus Bond (NASDAQ:ONIAX - News), which boasts a 26% high-yield allocation and nearly 11% in non-U.S. debt. BlackRock Total Return's (NASDAQ:MAHQX - News) figures aren't as dramatic, but they too REPRESENT A SHIFT. That fund had more than 14% in high yield at the end of June and more than 15% in exposure to NON-U.S. BOND MARKETS. Those numbers exceed their levels from the past several years in just about every case. Not Just the Popular Kids Category-wide averages for allocations to the various asset classes would show that this trend isn't limited to these few examples. Unfortunately, differences in the ways funds report their exposures make the averages suspect. However, another data point--the funds' R-squared numbers for specific time periods--does make the case. The statistic is typically used to denote how much of a PORTFOLIO'S PRICE MOVEMENTS can be explained by those of an index; a score of 100 suggests that a fund's movements are fully in sync with those of its benchmark. By looking at those data from periods before and after the financial crisis--skipping the crisis itself, which enticed most managers into opportunistic short-term, out-of-index bets--one can get a feel for how widespread the shift has been. And in fact, comparing funds in the intermediate-term bond category with the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index shows a meaningful difference. On average, intermediate-term bond funds had R-squared values of 91 for the two years leading up to the start of 2007. That number falls to 82 when looking at the period from mid-2010 through June 2011, suggesting strongly that funds are broadly investing away from the index more than they were before the onset of the crisis. A Whole New Ball Game There are other indications of a major shift in the attitudes of managers and investors. The most prominent has been the meteoric ascent of bond funds with so-called unconstrained and absolute-return strategies. Although a lot of money has anecdotally moved into this group out of fear from future interest-rate hikes, it also REPRESENTS A CLEAR BREAK FROM A TRADITION OF CORE, BENCHMARK-FOCUSED BOND INVESTING. These funds have taken in well over $1 billion per month in every month since September 2009. PIMCO's unconstrained offerings--including PIMCO Unconstrained (NASDAQ:PUBAX - News), Harbor Unconstrained (NASDAQ:HAUBX - News), and PIMCO's institutional separate account business--have been among the key beneficiaries of this trend. Morningstar estimates put PIMCO's flows into those strategies at more than $10 billion in the first six months of the 2011 alone. That last stat is particularly interesting because of its juxtaposition with those at PIMCO Total Return (NASDAQ:PTTRX - News). That flagship offering has dropped from the very top-selling spot among taxable U.S. bond funds only twice in the past 10 calendar years, both times staying in the group's top five. For the first six months of 2011, however, it is second only to one other fund--in estimated net redemptions. Just Because You Can Doesn't Always Mean You Should In almost any other period, a trend of this kind would be an UNAMBIGUOUS RED FLAG. Bond market history is rife with periods of yield chasing, followed by periods of sharp pain. We haven't gotten to the point at which today's trendiest markets are easily marked as overvalued, but they're approaching their 10-year highs. Although it's tempting to scoff at any sentiment that smacks of "this time will be different," there are reasons to at least consider the possibility. That's because arguments in favor of emerging economies, in particular, are based on sound fundamental observations of their structural reforms, growth rates, and underlying fiscal health. One of the dangers we've observed in such situations before, however, is that of the "me too" manager or fund company. It's relatively easy for many of them to ape the actions of a PIMCO or Bill Gross, for example, but much harder to actually replicate their success. And in this case, it's not even a foregone conclusion that market leaders such as PIMCO will live up to their past glory as they try to blaze new paths. ===================== Where's the discussion of currency conversion risk? |
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verrip1
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Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:41:19 GMT -5
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Post by verrip1 on Jul 22, 2011 17:44:59 GMT -5
{... article ...} Where's the discussion of currency conversion risk? I dunno. If you wanted to post about currency risk of bond funds, why didn't you find a relevant article to c&p? Or add your own comment? Hoping for shallow innuendo? Try decoy's thread. |
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flow5
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Post by flow5 on Jul 22, 2011 17:56:09 GMT -5
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Toshiba 32" Class 720p 60Hz LCD TV from Sears | Item: 05771320000 | Model: 32C110U
3.5 $329.99 $349.99
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Samsung 46" Class 1080p 120Hz 3D LED HDTV from Sears | Item: 05771174000 | Model: UN46D6400
5.0 $1249.99 $1599.99
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Zenith 50" Class 1080p Plasma HDTV from Sears | Item: 05775861000 | Model: Z50PV220
0.0 $654.63 $899.99
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Sony BRAVIA® 46" BX420-Series HDTV from Sears | Item: 05771738000 | Model: KDL-46BX420
4.5
$899.99
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verrip1
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:41:19 GMT -5
Posts: 2,992
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Post by verrip1 on Jul 22, 2011 19:09:25 GMT -5
Yes, Flow. You've got the decoy posting strategy generally aped. However, to exactly match it, you'd have to throw in a few additional links which have nothing to do with the content of your post.
lololol. Didn't know you had a good sense of humor.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 22, 2011 22:16:23 GMT -5
PTY looks interesting driftr $15 seems to be a pretty decent buy in. Are you thinking about trimming at all at these levels?? With Treasury yields so low, people have had to look elsewhere to generate income. The spread of Corporates is very attractive. Even AAAs look good, but the sweet spot is probably more near to BBB. I'm still holding a few Ford and GMAC bonds bought before the bailouts at literally pennies on the dollar. They are near enough to par that I've made most of my money, but I'm keeping them with their 6.8 to 7.5% coupons. My last one matures in 5 years. Nice risk on the GMAC and Ford vman! Looks like you were rewarded! The sweet spot at BBB being better yields and lower cost? Do you have some examples?? Flow5, as far a currency conversion, for me i'm at around 3%+ right now just changing to USD then waiting for par. The CDN $ will NOT stay above par forever. |
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verrip1
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:41:19 GMT -5
Posts: 2,992
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Post by verrip1 on Jul 22, 2011 23:06:39 GMT -5
PTY looks interesting driftr $15 seems to be a pretty decent buy in. Are you thinking about trimming at all at these levels?? With Treasury yields so low, people have had to look elsewhere to generate income. The spread of Corporates is very attractive. Even AAAs look good, but the sweet spot is probably more near to BBB. I'm still holding a few Ford and GMAC bonds bought before the bailouts at literally pennies on the dollar. They are near enough to par that I've made most of my money, but I'm keeping them with their 6.8 to 7.5% coupons. My last one matures in 5 years. Nice risk on the GMAC and Ford vman! Looks like you were rewarded! The sweet spot at BBB being better yields and lower cost? Do you have some examples?? Flow5, as far a currency conversion, for me i'm at around 3%+ right now just changing to USD then waiting for par. The CDN $ will NOT stay above par forever. Actually, aham, I'm not currently in the market for new bonds, so I can't really give you hard recommendations. However, a general recommendation would be to look at telecom bonds and focus on their fundamentals. As to currencies, you live in a country with likely the most sound currency in the world. Stop worrying about success. You have nothing to hedge except any foreign holdings you have. The Loonie will hold just fine over the long run. Really. That's what you buy your groceries with, pay your mortgage with and buy the occasional beer with, the Loonie. You would only need foreign currencies as a hedge against cash flow from foreign investments. That wouldn't be much, I'd guess. Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland are pretty fair places to hedge against the $USD, but I haven't the vaguest notion where anyone would go to hedge against what is really a strong Loonie not over the short run, but over the long run. To me, y'all and the Swiss have the best banking industry in the whole fooking world. No need to diversify currency except to the degree you get cash flow from foreign investments; then you would need to hedge just for that amount of cash flow from that particular country's currency. Certainly not for expecting some other currency to outperform yours. |
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 22, 2011 23:26:15 GMT -5
Sounds good just exploring some options. I'm not worried about the success of Canada, or the USA for that matter bra. I agree that the loonie will stay strong my long term target is at 98 cents. There is no way that the loonie will say above par forever but there is also no way that it will go back to 70 cents on the dollar. To me this reeks of oppurtuinty the loonie will hold stong until the fall at least, at which time I can invest in good quatilty BIG CAP US companies with a 3% pop off the start because by the time I will look at closing out the portfolio and use the money to buy a house again, the CDN dollar will be at par, and for me I hope 95 cents!!  The CDN banking industry is strong we will see just how strong once interest rates really start to rise, and there is some pressure put on the bloated balance sheets of my neighbours in Vancouver and Toronto.
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Driftr
Senior Member
Joined: Mar 10, 2011 13:08:15 GMT -5
Posts: 3,478
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Post by Driftr on Jul 23, 2011 7:47:56 GMT -5
No. I'm not planning to sell the PTY. I'd be just fine if the price goes back down to where I bought it at some point as long as the income stream remains the way it is. Nothing I'm buying is being bought with the intention to sell it during my lifetime. The only reason I'd sell something is if it isn't generating the income I expected when I bought it.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 23, 2011 16:26:59 GMT -5
Nice Driftr, sounds like a good plan. I will defiantly keep PTY on the list, thanks. I think others have talked about it as well. Our goal is to be able to leave half in the portfolio, time will tell.
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