CNN and the Electoral College map

[Value Buy]

CNN was playing around with the Electoral College Map.
You know, the one that actually counts in November.

They played out the easy states that they know will go for either Obama or Romney. That was easy, and pretty much put them both in the 240 to 250 range.
Playing out the states that could swing either way, and leaving Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa, for last, and the different allocations of these state delegate votes was interesting.
It could be a 2 to 3 vote win for the President, a 2 to 3 point win for Romney, or horror of horrors, a statistical tie, one vote short of the needed number to win.

And what happens then?
Well, it goes to the House of Representatives for a vote.
Guess which party holds the commanding lead there? ;D
Romney would win the Presidency.
Now even CNN admitted a statistical tie is not really going to be the outcome, just that it could.
What is known, we have a horse race this year, and it is not 2008 all over again for the President.

And we thought the 2000 election, Florida, and the Supreme Court tore the country apart......

Heck the Democrats could start clinging to their guns and Bibles and waundering the streets of D.C. in protest with the OWS crowd.

[Jaguar]

So this could get real interesting come November. Alrighty then I'll go get a life until November.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 7, 2012 1:26:12 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

CNN was playing around with the Electoral College Map.
You know, the one that actually counts in November.

They played out the easy states that they know will go for either Obama or Romney. That was easy, and pretty much put them both in the 240 to 250 range.
Playing out the states that could swing either way, and leaving Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa, for last, and the different allocations of these state delegate votes was interesting.
It could be a 2 to 3 vote win for the President, a 2 to 3 point win for Romney, or horror of horrors, a statistical tie, one vote short of the needed number to win.

And what happens then?
Well, it goes to the House of Representatives for a vote.
Guess which party holds the commanding lead there? ;D
Romney would win the Presidency.
Now even CNN admitted a statistical tie is not really going to be the outcome, just that it could.
What is known, we have a horse race this year, and it is not 2008 all over again for the President.

And we thought the 2000 election, Florida, and the Supreme Court tore the country apart......

Heck the Democrats could start clinging to their guns and Bibles and waundering the streets of D.C. in protest with the OWS crowd.

i don't think the electoral college map is too meaningful right now, but i also don't think it is really 240 to 240. there are a lot more toss up states than that. i think it is more like 220 to 180.

[Value Buy]

dj, they took the ususal states they know who they will go for, like Illinois New York, California, etc.
Same for Romney, then they took middle tier states like Indiana Colorado Tennessee, New Jersey AND assigned them where they felt the monemtum would place them, leaving about five true swing states.
They used several different combinations going different ways leaving it to within a 2 to 3 point win for either one, and showed the statistical tie break out.
Very interesting.
And they are the first to admit, anything can happen between now and November.
And they are also saying it will be much closer than 2008 regardless who wins.
Personnally, I hope it is a tie, and goes to Congress.
I for one, would like to see something happen in my lifetime that has not happened before in an election.
That and the fact it would tick the Democrats off more than in 2004

[billisonboard]

Mar 7, 2012 1:26:12 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

CNN was playing around with the Electoral College Map.
You know, the one that actually counts in November.

They played out the easy states that they know will go for either Obama or Romney. ...

Of course, the Republicans have to nominate Romney before it would be, you know, the one that actually counts in November.

[Value Buy]

Mar 7, 2012 8:50:27 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Mar 7, 2012 1:26:12 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

CNN was playing around with the Electoral College Map.
You know, the one that actually counts in November.
They played out the easy states that they know will go for either Obama or Romney. ...

Of course, the Republicans have to nominate Romney before it would be, you know, the one that actually counts in November.

Oh, Bills, ye, of little faith......
We can start the summer national election campaign today.
Romney versus the President.
Of course, MSNBC is still choking on the thought Romney has it wrapped up this morning.
They do not want to look at the Electoral College map, because they see that train a coming........

[billisonboard]

Mar 7, 2012 8:58:20 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Mar 7, 2012 8:50:27 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Of course, the Republicans have to nominate Romney before it would be, you know, the one that actually counts in November.

Oh, Bills, ye, of little no faith......
...

fixed.

Not all that concerned if Mitt "I'd rather be President than right" Romney gets the nomination and then is elected president. This country survived the presidency of Millard Fillmore. It will survive his heir apparent. I would be concerned if the Republican were to anoint Pope Rick the First as their choice to rule the realm.

[Value Buy]

Hmmn, if Rick gets it, does he take Mitt, or Gringrich as his running mate?
I know Ron Paul would not accept the 2nd place.
This could be fun!

[cme1201]

Hmmn, if Rick gets it, does he take Mitt, or Gringrich as his running mate?

Scuttlebutt is Santorum and Gingrich are in discussions of who should drop out and be ready to accept the #2 position.
Santorum has the MO compared to Gingrich, If Gingrich doesn't show well in Miss and Ala next week I would expect him to drop support Santorum and be ready to accept the #2 position when offered.

[billisonboard]

Would Gingrich really start shopping at Jared's?

[zipity]

They do not want to look at the Electoral College map, because they see that train a coming........

That train could easily derail if Gingrich drops out of the race.

[cme1201]

Mar 7, 2012 9:27:33 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Would Gingrich really start shopping at Jared's?

What does this mean?

If he could afford to shop at Tiffany's before becoming POTUS I would bet he could continue to shop a Tiffany's after being elected vice-POTUS

[billisonboard]

Mar 7, 2012 9:30:55 GMT -5 cme1201 said:

Mar 7, 2012 9:27:33 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Would Gingrich really start shopping at Jared's?

What does this mean?

If he could afford to shop at Tiffany's before becoming POTUS I would bet he could continue to shop a Tiffany's after being elected vice-POTUS

Jared's is to Tiffany's as the Vice-Presidency is to the Presidency. (Will Gingrich's ego allow him to play second banana to Santorum?)

[alpha]

Since you're already Calling the Presidential Election for Romney as Chiseled in Stone with a Seemingly Zero % Margin of Error Eight Full Months before the First Vote is Cast, I wonder who you have as your "Guaranteed Lock" for Winning the Superbowl next Year? It's only two Months further on.

[cme1201]

Mar 7, 2012 9:51:55 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Mar 7, 2012 9:30:55 GMT -5 cme1201 said:

What does this mean?

If he could afford to shop at Tiffany's before becoming POTUS I would bet he could continue to shop a Tiffany's after being elected vice-POTUS

Jared's is to Tiffany's as the Vice-Presidency is to the Presidency. (Will Gingrich's ego allow him to play second banana to Santorum?)

The better question would be will Gingrich's ego allow him to carry on the Primary if he cannot carry Ms and Al. Where he shops for jewelery is about as important as where Barack takes Michelle for date night.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 7, 2012 1:48:37 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

dj, they took the ususal states they know who they will go for, like Illinois New York, California, etc.
Same for Romney, then they took middle tier states like Indiana Colorado Tennessee, New Jersey AND assigned them where they felt the monemtum would place them, leaving about five true swing states.
They used several different combinations going different ways leaving it to within a 2 to 3 point win for either one, and showed the statistical tie break out.
Very interesting.
And they are the first to admit, anything can happen between now and November.
And they are also saying it will be much closer than 2008 regardless who wins.
Personnally, I hope it is a tie, and goes to Congress.
I for one, would like to see something happen in my lifetime that has not happened before in an election.
That and the fact it would tick the Democrats off more than in 2008

like i say, i tend to think that the toss up states are just that. they can go either way. but i think it is pretty clear at this point that the midterm election will be closer than 2008.

[Deleted]

Analogy people!

No... I don't think Gingrich would be caught dead in Jarods... If he can't have Tiffany's he'll attempt to hold on to and flaunt what he already has, as if that was the true prize after all, and start talking about how the nouveau riche have ruined the entire market and nothing being offered today is worth having....

[Deleted]

The Electoral College is archaic and outlived it’s usefulness a long time ago.

Romney will, almost certainly, get the nomination, but he just doesn’t excite many people. Bush lost the 2000 election by half a million votes and it was decided by shenanigans in FLA and the SCOTUS. Should something similar happen in November, I don’t think Democrats will be out in the streets shooting things up, they will just grin and accept Obama lite.

And in term of VPs, Romney should seriously consider Paul as a way of attracting the independents. There will be legions of the republican base that may take a pass on this election.

[zipity]

And in term of VPs, Romney should seriously consider Paul as a way of attracting the independents.

IMO, Romney would be much better off to find a VP who has not been connected in any way to the primary. None of the pub candidates have really excited the masses. If he could get someone like Chris Christie or Bobby Jindal he could add some real excitement to the race.

[reasonfreedom]

CNN's map is not right it is just a guess. The majority of the states don't have delegates vote until the convention, those delegates aren't a sure bet.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 7, 2012 11:52:28 GMT -5 Robert not Bobby said:

The Electoral College is archaic and outlived it’s usefulness a long time ago.

no it hasn't. it has been "repurposed" to prevent anyone other than the most milquetoast mainstream corporate boring dogturd from ever reaching the WH.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

The electoral college is designed to ensure the most populous states - states like NY and CA - from deciding all future elections. I realize that scenario would suit liberals just fine, but for the rest of us who believe in liberal ideas like protecting the minority from the tyranny of the majority...

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

The idea that Iowa is a toss up is hilarious. Iowa is gone. If you want to know where Obama stands, look at the state by state polls on ObamaCare. Where there are a majority opposed, Obama is toast. Period. I think I read that the Romney camp is in the process of about to take a serious stab at neutralizing the issue. They now (FINALLY!) realize that he simply MUST STOP DEFENDING it.

[resolution]

Mar 8, 2012 21:39:12 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

The electoral college is designed to ensure the most populous states - states like NY and CA - from deciding all future elections. I realize that scenario would suit liberals just fine, but for the rest of us who believe in liberal ideas like protecting the minority from the tyranny of the majority...

I thought the electoral college was designed because the founding fathers didn't trust the general population to elect the president and wanted men of discernment to do it instead.

thomas.loc.gov/home/histdox/fed_68.html

[EVT1]

Mar 8, 2012 21:39:12 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

The electoral college is designed to ensure the most populous states - states like NY and CA - from deciding all future elections. I realize that scenario would suit liberals just fine, but for the rest of us who believe in liberal ideas like protecting the minority from the tyranny of the majority...

And instead allows the tyranny of the majority by the minority- good plan. That's how we got the last loser.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 8, 2012 21:39:12 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

The electoral college is designed to ensure the most populous states - states like NY and CA - from deciding all future elections.

then it is a miserable failure. populous states typically decide the election.

however, it DOES prevent radical candidates from having a voice in national politics. intended or unintended, it does that very well.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 8, 2012 21:47:54 GMT -5 resolution said:

Mar 8, 2012 21:39:12 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

The electoral college is designed to ensure the most populous states - states like NY and CA - from deciding all future elections. I realize that scenario would suit liberals just fine, but for the rest of us who believe in liberal ideas like protecting the minority from the tyranny of the majority...

I thought the electoral college was designed because the founding fathers didn't trust the general population to elect the president and wanted men of discernment to do it instead.

thomas.loc.gov/home/histdox/fed_68.html

that is way way closer. it is more complicated than that, but that is way way closer. there IS one simple way of putting it, however:

the electoral college is an elitist institution.

[djAdvocate]

Mar 8, 2012 21:44:47 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

The idea that Iowa is a toss up is hilarious.

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/iowa_obama_vs_republicans.html

[zipity]

I think I read that the Romney camp is in the process of about to take a serious stab at neutralizing the issue. They now (FINALLY!) realize that he simply MUST STOP DEFENDING it.

Exactly, Romney doesn't need to defend Obamacare or Romney care, both are the product of the republican party's answer to Hillarycare. Pubs were right to propose it then and mandated health insurance is still the answer today. That is unless you enjoy paying for free loaders going to the emergency room whenever they get the sniffles.

[beenherebefore]

Any predictions on today's Alabama and Mississippi Primaries?

I predict Santorum will win AL and Gingrich will win MS. Why, you may ask? Just a hunch..... :-)