bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 12, 2012 13:28:22 GMT -5
General World Discourse in Money Supply M0, M1, M2, M3, M4 Different measures of money supply. Not all of them are widely used and the exact classifications depend on the country. M0 and M1, also called narrow money, normally include coins and notes in circulation and other money equivalents that are easily convertible into cash. M2 includes M1 plus short-term time deposits in banks and 24-hour money market funds. M3 includes M2 plus longer-term time deposits and money market funds with more than 24-hour maturity. The exact definitions of the three measures depend on the country. M4 includes M3 plus other deposits. The term broad money is used to describe M2, M3 or M4, depending on the local practice.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 12, 2012 13:32:47 GMT -5
M1 is up 36.8%.. M2 is up 23.3.. Phase delay too « Thread Started on Sept 30, 2011, 12:17pm »
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 12, 2012 16:08:25 GMT -5
Depression was a result of the crash of one huge Austrian Bank over loans to Hungary.. Again Hungary bonds and banks are in insolvancy.. We do not hear anything about this at this time but we will real soon, they will default and that is going to be the KINGPIN of the depression in Europe. Soros is again ahead of the curve. As before Der Spiegel is also ahead of the curve!! Just a thought Bruce American billionaire George Soros slammed German Chancellor Angela Merkel in an interview published on Sunday, warning that her policies could lead to a repeat of the Great Depression.
"I admire Chancellor Merkel for her leadership. But unfortunately she is taking Europe in the wrong direction," the financier and philanthropist told the weekly Der Spiegel.
Soros warned against addressing the crisis with spending cuts, urging the injection of funds instead.
"Otherwise we will repeat the mistakes that plunged America into the Great Depression in 1929. That's what Angela Merkel doesn't understand," he said.
US President Franklin Roosevelt addressed the crisis in 1933 with his New Deal, inspired by British economist John Keynes, which combined a reform of the banking system with major infrastructure projects.
Soros also told Der Spiegel, in remarks published in German on the magazine's website, that he thought Europe could handle the crisis without the help of the International Monetary Fund.
He said it was a mistake to offer a bailout to Greece tied to high interest rates. "That's why the country can't be saved today, and the same thing will happen to Italy if we put this country in the straitjacket of paying harsh interest rates," Soros said.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 14, 2012 2:07:25 GMT -5
Great Thread Bruce... It ties into your Politics of the FED thread at SFW, that thread might be an aright one here.. Italy and Spain sold some more bonds today. ECB and banks using the currency swaps from the worlds reserves to buy bonds, collect interest and pay back swaps? As long as the rest don't end up like Greece?
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 15, 2012 15:45:29 GMT -5
Great Thread Bruce... It ties into your Politics of the FED thread at SFW, that thread might be an aright one here.. Italy and Spain sold some more bonds today. ECB and banks using the currency swaps from the worlds reserves to buy bonds, collect interest and pay back swaps? As long as the rest don't end up like Greece? Yes, A++.. But the lack of M3 and total money is causing a real lack of cash to lend by banks... Now we have to think about QE3.. Well it is interesting to see how the voting make up of FOMC has changed and what this means.. UNDER INFLATION = LESS THEN 2%Bruce WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve appears open to the idea of a third round of bond purchases to boost a still-modest recovery. But members remain divided over when or whether to take that step. Minutes of the Fed's Jan. 24-25 meeting released Wednesday show that some Fed officials thought such bond purchases should begin soon because unemployment remains high and inflation low. Others said such a step should be taken only if the economy weakened further or if inflation stayed below the Fed's target rate of 2 percent. UNDER INFLATION = LESS THEN 2%The debate took place at a meeting in which the Fed decided to hold its benchmark interest rate at record lows until at least late 2014. One Fed official argued that the central bank might need to consider abandoning that plan to keep inflation low. UNDER INFLATION = LESS THEN 2%The outlook for the economy has brightened since that meeting. Earlier this month, the government reported the best hiring gains since spring and a fifth-straight drop in the unemployment rate. On Wednesday, a separate Fed report showed that December and January were the two best months for manufacturing growth since the recession ended. Economists said the minutes suggest the Fed will hold off launching another round of bond buying in the short term. "The minutes did not show an urgency to pursue further measures, with the general tone seeming to be one of 'wait-and-see'," said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR, Inc. "So, if the economy loses steam, markets will begin to expect further action." The minutes show Fed officials expected only modest economic growth in the coming months with only gradual declines in the unemployment rate. Members cited several factors that could weaken the recovery and warrant more action from the Fed. Among them: — a slowdown in economic activity abroad — U.S. budget cuts — further weakness in the already-depressed housing market — less borrowing by consumers — more uncertainty among households and businesses — increased volatility in financial markets because of Europe's debt crisis. Recent indicators point to a strengthening economy, albeit slowly.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 15, 2012 15:49:43 GMT -5
Role of Financial Conditions in Economic Recovery: Lending and Leverage Staff summarized research projects being conducted across the Federal Reserve System on the effects of changes in lending practices and household leverage on consumer spending in recent years. These projects provided a range of views regarding the size and importance of such effects. An analysis employing aggregate time-series data indicated that changes in income, household assets and liabilities, and credit availability can largely account for the movements in aggregate consumption seen since the mid-1990s; this finding suggests that changes in credit conditions may have been an important factor driving changes in the saving rate in recent years. A second analysis used data on borrowing, debt repayments, and other credit factors for individual borrowers; this study found that movements in leverage--resulting from voluntary loan repayments and from loan charge-offs--have had a substantial effect on the cash flow of many households over time, and thus presumably on their spending. However, a third study, which employed household-level data, suggested that movements in consumption before, during, and after the recession were driven primarily by employment, income, and net worth, leaving little variation to be explained by changes in leverage and credit availability. ..LACK OF MONEY CAUSED BY LACK OF CAPITAL (TIER1 IN BANKING))In their discussion following the staff presentation, several meeting participants considered possible reasons for the differing results of the various analyses; participants also noted contrasts between these findings and those reported in some academic research. Several possible explanations for the varying conclusions were discussed, including differences across studies in model specification and data, as well as differences in the definition of deleveraging. In addition, it was noted that data limitations make it difficult to reach firm conclusions on this issue, at least at this time. Participants also considered the possible influence on aggregate consumer spending of changes in real interest rates and the distribution of income, the potential for policy actions to affect the fundamental factors driving household saving, and whether households' spending behavior is being affected by concerns about the future of Social Security.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 15, 2012 23:48:48 GMT -5
I agree that future spending patters will be very dependent on social security. I have also read that a lot of Boomers are still to get their inheritance, and that it could be one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history. Considering that the boomer themselves are fairly wealthy, it should be interesting to see what happens in the next 30 years.
Between 1880-1890 capital investment increased 500%. There is LOTS of money in the hands of wealthy Americans, the reality just needs to be presented. The Boomers still have the chance to save the world. ;D
That isn't what flow5's charts are saying. They are confirming record deposits at the FED and in the Banks. All there for a cushion. The reason that banks aren't lending is because of the exposure to the EU.
Now that 100 global banks are on watch from Moodys, we can see why there over capitalization in deposits at the FED.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 16, 2012 0:30:46 GMT -5
I agree that future spending patters will be very dependent on social security. I have also read that a lot of Boomers are still to get their inheritance, and that it could be one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history. Considering that the boomer themselves are fairly wealthy, it should be interesting to see what happens in the next 30 years. Between 1880-1890 capital investment increased 500%. There is LOTS of money in the hands of wealthy Americans, the reality just needs to be presented. The Boomers still have the chance to save the world. ;D That isn't what flow5's charts are saying. They are confirming record deposits at the FED and in the Banks. All there for a cushion. The reason that banks aren't lending is because of the exposure to the EU. Now that 100 global banks are on watch from Moodys, we can see why there over capitalization in deposits at the FED. A++, There is areal debate on what the effect of the huge deposits at the Federal Reserve by the banks has on the total Money.. It removes money from the banks local market so it is not being multiplied by the lending locally... REAL TOTAL MONEY SHORTAGE.. LOWER LENDING AND MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN TIER1 FROM 8% TO 12.5% ESP FOR THE 17 INTERNATIONAL BANKS BEING DOWN GRADED BY MOODY'S. Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt Most of the growth is in M0..cash!! and this is a very small part of M3!! Even Ben B. want to know were is all that money he has printed.. Little is being changed as money for trade.. most of it must be being held by people who do not have checking or saving accounts.. Like the "legal " Drug trade in 20 states.. They can not deposit it into banks so they have huge amount of cash on hand to pay bills by cash... All these firms are "Cash Only".. and they mean it.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 16, 2012 0:37:34 GMT -5
A great one at that!! I will get back to you... and some WHY NOT???....
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 16, 2012 23:43:27 GMT -5
I agree that future spending patters will be very dependent on social security. I have also read that a lot of Boomers are still to get their inheritance, and that it could be one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history. Considering that the boomer themselves are fairly wealthy, it should be interesting to see what happens in the next 30 years. Between 1880-1890 capital investment increased 500%. There is LOTS of money in the hands of wealthy Americans, the reality just needs to be presented. The Boomers still have the chance to save the world. ;D That isn't what flow5's charts are saying. They are confirming record deposits at the FED and in the Banks. All there for a cushion. The reason that banks aren't lending is because of the exposure to the EU. Now that 100 global banks are on watch from Moodys, we can see why there over capitalization in deposits at the FED. A++, There is areal debate on what the effect of the huge deposits at the Federal Reserve by the banks has on the total Money.. It removes money from the banks local market so it is not being multiplied by the lending locally... REAL TOTAL MONEY SHORTAGE.. LOWER LENDING AND MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN TIER1 FROM 8% TO 12.5% ESP FOR THE 17 INTERNATIONAL BANKS BEING DOWN GRADED BY MOODY'S. Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt Most of the growth is in M0..cash!! and this is a very small part of M3!! Even Ben B. want to know were is all that money he has printed.. Little is being changed as money for trade.. most of it must be being held by people who do not have checking or saving accounts.. Like the "legal " Drug trade in 20 states.. They can not deposit it into banks so they have huge amount of cash on hand to pay bills by cash... All these firms are "Cash Only".. and they mean it. IDK, irony, happenstance, whatever it is I find it VERY interesting that Ben B. came out today and got into this conversation. Telling regional banks that it's important for the economic recovery for interest rates to remain low, even though he understand this is hurting lending(profits) To me it signals that they know that the cash is just sitting there waiting to go to work, but that they know that they have to insulate MAIN STREET from further damage. So while right now the lack on lending that money is hurting ECON growth, in the long run it might end up being better for main street. As far as cash in cash because of the legal trade, how about on a national level they do something about that too. I know one way to get that cash to work in the system...
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jun 13, 2012 19:59:01 GMT -5
General World Discourse in Money Supply M0, M1, M2, M3, M4 Different measures of money supply. Not all of them are widely used and the exact classifications depend on the country. M0 and M1, also called narrow money, normally include coins and notes in circulation and other money equivalents that are easily convertible into cash. M2 includes M1 plus short-term time deposits in banks and 24-hour money market funds. M3 includes M2 plus longer-term time deposits and money market funds with more than 24-hour maturity. The exact definitions of the three measures depend on the country. M4 includes M3 plus other deposits. The term broad money is used to describe M2, M3 or M4, depending on the local practice. Current drop in M3 as the change in change is very negative is now 1.7% increase year over year.. This will concentrate growth and inflation to equal 1.7% within the 12 to 18 months. This is the noted phase delay for M3. We are in for a depression or very heavy recession by June 2013.. Agree with A++ as the data is on your side. M1 for the same year over year increased by 18.1%.. My own model show banks are not lending but using the extra cash to run a "HEDGE FUND" With high risk synthetic financial instruments like selling ( creating ) very ill liquid CDS and Interest rate swaps.Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jun 15, 2012 0:26:03 GMT -5
While the fundamentals might look like something from the late 1900's. The over lying trend is an economic and social situation like the one from 1876-1906. The LONG swoosh continues.. Exactly, low interest has the wall street banks chasing returns to keep their stock up.. Time to break them up just like standard oil, they have shown just how irrelevant they are to today's business world without a doubt.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jun 18, 2012 21:51:57 GMT -5
M3 has changed direction in the volatility (3rd derivative of position) from 1.7% to 2.5% or 0.8% positive ... Yes there is a negative correlation between interest for the 10 years T-Note and M3!!
We are almost back to 15 Trillion Dollars...
Just a thought, BiMetalAupt
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jun 23, 2012 20:24:59 GMT -5
M3 has changed direction in the volatility (3rd derivative of position) from 1.7% to 2.5% or 0.8% positive ... Yes there is a negative correlation between interest for the 10 years T-Note and M3!! We are almost back to 15 Trillion Dollars... Just a thought, BiMetalAupt It is now offical..M3 is 15,055 Trillion dollars.. last week was revised up to 15.005 Trillion Dollars. what more can I say.. A: Black Swan risk est is not down to 72% B: DJIA none black swan is above 16,000 for the 15 month target!!! C: A++ is hot on the track for New York RE.. With the hottest REIT !! High Risk = future high returns.. Buying at the bottom.. D: I bet the Whale.. OK I am not as conservative as I try to make out to be.. I do not have any dependent so I go long on volatility. Watch for a great buying season in September. E; Dinner is on me at the 21 Club for any member of Super Fed-Watch&Your GF or Wife timing will be at Fleet week.. It was so great to see the tall ships.. alone never again..Yes you too can see the Texaco fire truck..Upside down with peddles!!! Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jun 24, 2012 0:41:29 GMT -5
Looks like all we need is a few little birdies to scare these big black swans away over the next... while... High Risk REIT that is actually a hedge? Now that is money in the bank for some power from garbage! ;D
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jun 25, 2012 5:02:52 GMT -5
Looks like all we need is a few little birdies to scare these big black swans away over the next... while... High Risk REIT that is actually a hedge? Now that is money in the bank for some power from garbage! ;D A++, I think the 20 lbs of small bird seed wi ll keep the birdies coming back. Did you get my email on risk vs Class "A" low risk.. I know low risk = low return..that is a MBA thing... Things are touchy.. But no . . not they type of Touchy.. BiMetalAuPt
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jun 26, 2012 1:49:58 GMT -5
Yep, and the fact that there are a lot of angry birds out there that wouldn't mind a bit better of a life... I was wondering why you were saying high risk? Hedging with low risk and high returns is the plan! Money for Garbage power... ;D Things are very touchy, we want to help guard against the Canadian housing correcting and the swoosh economy in the USA. Buy low can still be low risk, especially when you don't have to worry about rates..
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Post by bimetalaupt on Sept 14, 2012 7:20:15 GMT -5
Yep, and the fact that there are a lot of angry birds out there that wouldn't mind a bit better of a life... I was wondering why you were saying high risk? Hedging with low risk and high returns is the plan! Money for Garbage power... ;D Things are very touchy, we want to help guard against the Canadian housing correcting and the swoosh economy in the USA. Buy low can still be low risk, especially when you don't have to worry about rates.. A+++, It is the black kat that is eating all the "Black Swans".. One big mean Maine Coon kat.. Worth a few trillion dollars.. M3 is not growing fast enough to be inflationary ..YETM3 15,216.03.... Up only 3.1% year over year M2 10103.4 Up a wow 7.7% year over year M1 2470.8 up a huge 13.8%.. So much for M1 target Growth = GDP Growth + InflationJust a thought, BiMetalAuPt...
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Sept 14, 2012 22:59:15 GMT -5
BiMetal, A great thought it is, lots of money going now where and the inflation is there if the politicians would get out of the way. With commodities stuck in a range, "inflation" is in check for right now.. Have a great weekend, A+++
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Sept 15, 2012 17:19:28 GMT -5
BiMetal, A great thought it is, lots of money going now where and the inflation is there if the politicians would get out of the way. With commodities stuck in a range, "inflation" is in check for right now.. Have a great weekend, A+++ Last M3 report is M3 is up 3.6%.. That is a delta of 0.5% change .. That is 16.129% increase from last week change!! M3 (9/14/2012) = 15357.24 billion USD vs our debt of 16 Trillion Dollars
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Sept 15, 2012 20:27:28 GMT -5
This may FINALLY get the inflation that Ben wants Bruce.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Sept 15, 2012 21:04:33 GMT -5
This may FINALLY get the inflation that Ben wants Bruce. USA Won, Yes. and also the banks want to increase the value of the Bank owned Houses.... Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Sept 17, 2012 0:07:44 GMT -5
BiMetal, A great thought it is, lots of money going now where and the inflation is there if the politicians would get out of the way. With commodities stuck in a range, "inflation" is in check for right now.. Have a great weekend, A+++ Last M3 report is M3 is up 3.6%.. That is a delta of 0.5% change .. That is 16.129% increase from last week change!! M3 (9/14/2012) = 15357.24 billion USD vs our debt of 16 Trillion Dollars Yet QE was needed? What a load of crap. Govt needs to get out of the way so the trickle down can continue!
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Sept 18, 2012 16:20:56 GMT -5
Last M3 report is M3 is up 3.6%.. That is a delta of 0.5% change .. That is 16.129% increase from last week change!! M3 (9/14/2012) = 15357.24 billion USD vs our debt of 16 Trillion Dollars Yet QE was needed? What a load of crap. Govt needs to get out of the way so the trickle down can continue! A+++, Your writing must have been studied by Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher. What he said on CNBC Squick box ; Fisher must have read this ten time...K4UWhat we need to do the congress is Bi
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Sept 19, 2012 23:18:06 GMT -5
the , ;D <------ That was me when I seen that.. We are on the same wave link anyway.. I knew there was a reason I like TX business. Thanks and K4U when I'm reloded. I see he had some good words for the large banks today as well... Interesting I thought, because I have been thinking about a new thread here for a couple weeks... the
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Sept 2, 2014 18:52:07 GMT -5
Correlation study for M1 and M2 comparison to M3 m3 corr m1............................................. 89.26284350049% m3 corr m2............................................. 97.92229970255% cronbach alpha study cornbach m1 to m3 ..........................................42.13736857418% cron M1&m2 to M3........................................... 80.87740356161% cron m3 to m2................................................. 92.48165478005% cron djia to m3............................................... 56.67582497753% cron PT djia to M3........................................... 99.87839892187% correlation re-re-rearrangement djia to m3.........................99.7573637580% P1 forecast............................................................................17394.4592572526 ( this week) last M3 (P1)......................................................................... 17378.580000 Lamma .............................................................................99.944836189099%< 1 declining m3 Po...................................................................................17404.06 forecast Po ......................................................................17419.8183052772 ( last weeks) It is looking better for Philip Good's Permutation ?Test Study under the EXTRA MMXV-Alpha Good just a thought, BiMetalAuPt
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Sept 6, 2014 0:19:27 GMT -5
Amazing that after two plus years, here we are. Money has been making its way into the economy via private avenues and cash is lying in wait for the eventual Euro flare up. The only thing we didn't factor in largely enough was Putin desabalzing the situation in Europe through conflict which would open the door for the Jihad to hit central Asia. Great calls K4U
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Sept 6, 2014 17:28:13 GMT -5
Amazing that after two plus years, here we are. Money has been making its way into the economy via private avenues and cash is lying in wait for the eventual Euro flare up. The only thing we didn't factor in largely enough was Putin desabalzing the situation in Europe through conflict which would open the door for the Jihad to hit central Asia. Great calls K4U A++++, PUTIN DID THE ONE THING OBAMA FAILED AT: HE MADE NATO AGAIN WELL AND SUPPORTED BY GERMANY AND FRANCE. Germany needs a strong banking system to support the GNP!! Bruce www.banktech.com/financial-supply-chain/how-the-ukraine-crisis-is-affecting-the-global-banking-industry/d/d-id/1306938
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Sept 7, 2014 0:38:40 GMT -5
Haha, yes, just what France and Germany need when trying to cut back, to spend on military, have their avenues for oil and has put in jeopardy, and have a major trading partner cut out of the loop through sanctions. I wasn't sure where that article above fit best, crazy though isn't it? Especially because Russia is being accused of capturing/detaining an Estonian, and - big surprise - shelling is being reported on the new front in Eastern Ukraine that is leading to Crimea... German banks? From February but still spot on.. Davide Serra: German banks are bad newsTop German banker slams ECB for 'arbitrary' stress testsWith unemployment growing during the past 18 months, what is more money for bad debt going to do? God bless,
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Sept 23, 2014 19:59:28 GMT -5
With M3 again hitting a new high (17440.32 Billion USD) and DJTM (-128.49)and DJIA off (-116.81) with VIX up (+1.25) things are looking better for open season on high beta!!!!
RIDK........................................... 5296.92375 up side for DJIA ( 21/31/2015).......20425.8555450393 UPSIDE........................................ 3369.9855450393 DJIA UPSIDE/RISK............................ 63.6215604395% djia risk/return................................... 1.5717942048141 Highest risk DJIA............................15128.9317950393 PROF/LOSS PER$1.00........................ -$0.36378 SD as % DJIA.................................... 19.7585086251% all numbers ( data) as are current as of close of NYSE 9/23/2014 information developed with MMXVI-Alpha Money relationship study.
Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt
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