Food Inflation Experiment +

[decoy409]

ses, what is the 'Experation Date' on the 2 bags?

reasonfreedom, depending what class of ground beef you buy,that price will of course reflect that class. Like real faty to real lean this way 4 selections are offered of ground beef. Mid grade on 4lbs. runs about $3.00 and if you but the same by the 1 lb. at a time the price jumps to about $3.20.

And there are many products that no longer come in the size they did a year ago. The size is smaller and the cost is more. So that is or is not inflation? I believe it is inflation.
Milk 2% by the gl. has gone up about 10 cents per gallon in the past 30 days this way as well.

[Driftr]

Someone needs to ask Mid over at duff's board how the one stock he owns is doing these days. Hecla Mining if I remember right.

[Virgil Showlion]

Which one would you have bought in real life if not required to go for the more expensive per oz bag due to the limitations of the experiment?

There's no guarantee of competitive pricing, but it's a reasonable assumption.

It's also reasonable to assume that cheaper products are of inferior quality. And although downgrading to cheaper products is certainly a consumer option, it defeats the purpose of measuring inflation/deflation.

How about we look at it this way? The core CPI has been in ~3% territory for some time now and you've made reasonable arguments that certain assets are indeed still experiencing deflation.

What I see in the numbers is that the deflationary forces are concentrated in the higher-price items--luxury goods, houses, highly discretionary items. Prices for goods on the cheaper/more basic end of the spectrum have risen by more than enough to compensate. The weekly sequential highs in food stamp usage aren't a statistical anomaly.

Hence, we've established a tentative correlation between the price of goods and their rate of inflation. We're experiencing contraction in the relative spread. Is it not reasonable to assume that generic goods at the low end of the spectrum would show as much or more inflation than goods with a quality premium attached?

Put more succinctly: the prices we're getting out of the experiment may be a biased estimator of overall food inflation, but the estimate is likely negatively biased vis a vis inflation in discount goods, which disproportionately affects the poor.

[decoy409]

Virgil,now the other side of the coin as to food stamp participation.

Seems folks forgot about the states in crisis,cutbacks,and those denied or back logged,

Feb. 23,2011 State could face sanctions for food stamp problems

(excerpt) - "We're really concerned with what's happening in Connecticut," James Arena-DeRosa, northeast regional administrator for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food and Nutrition Service, told members of the Human Services and Appropriations committees Tuesday.

Legislators called the figures he presented shocking. Twenty-six percent of cases in which food stamps were denied or cut off were the result of errors, according to preliminary fiscal-year 2010 figures based on a sample of cases. Fewer than 60 percent of applications were processed in a timely manner, and the rate of inaccurate benefit payments was second-worst in the country.

Arena-DeRosa noted that the state Department of Social Services, which administers the program, has faced a "tremendous challenge" addressing the increased demand for food stamps. The number of state residents receiving food assistance grew by 30 percent from the 2009 to 2010 fiscal years, to more than 336,000 people.

www.ctmirror.org/story/11629/state-could-face-sanctions-food-stamp-problems

So as they report more and more on the growing civil unrest it is folks like in these numbers that are forgotten to be mentioned,just like unemployment recipients and the ones that have fallen out of the numbers.

[decoy409]

With the increase….increasing in food prices…the risks are growing (nice pun…huh?) for nations without food. Drought in many places and very heavy rains in others are keeping world food prices at near record levels and wrecking havoc on poorer food importing countries (that means social unrest).'

I am happy to see that you left the weather segment in FTI.

Now how about sharing a view as to #102 and the states?

Feb. 23,2011 State could face sanctions for food stamp problems

as I see you left that word 'civil unrest' in,certainly these peole back here have to be itching as well.

[decoy409]

Now I see why you BURRIED the post! For your loving support of........

Virgil,now the other side of the coin as to food stamp participation.

Seems folks forgot about the states in crisis,cutbacks,and those denied or back logged,

Feb. 23,2011 State could face sanctions for food stamp problems

(excerpt) - "We're really concerned with what's happening in Connecticut," James Arena-DeRosa, northeast regional administrator for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food and Nutrition Service, told members of the Human Services and Appropriations committees Tuesday.

Legislators called the figures he presented shocking. Twenty-six percent of cases in which food stamps were denied or cut off were the result of errors, according to preliminary fiscal-year 2010 figures based on a sample of cases. Fewer than 60 percent of applications were processed in a timely manner, and the rate of inaccurate benefit payments was second-worst in the country.

Arena-DeRosa noted that the state Department of Social Services, which administers the program, has faced a "tremendous challenge" addressing the increased demand for food stamps. The number of state residents receiving food assistance grew by 30 percent from the 2009 to 2010 fiscal years, to more than 336,000 people.

www.ctmirror.org/story/11629/stat....-stamp-problems

[decoy409]

See how good they are at AVOIDING the issues. When they no longer AVOID the issues we will know,as that is when they start addressing them instead of fluff cover over them.

[decoy409]

#106 - fti,he's funny!

[chiver78]

just a quick question about the code behind the experiment. is there a way to sort the data that's in the system at this point? I noticed for the first time today that the averages shown in the "all regions" option are way less than the prices I've been posting. I'm curious to see max/min data for each item, and the region (or even poster) where that data point came from.

*I know my June data is still outstanding. I will be shopping at my store of choice either tomorrow afternoon or Saturday morning and will collect numbers.

[mtntigger]

Virgil - Could you freeze the first column (i.e., the food items) in the chart? When I entered my June data, I could still read them; July - December will be tricky.
Thanks!

[dancinmama]

Jun 7, 2011 12:00:43 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Just shows the unreal limitations of this experiment and the fact that it does not reflect economic reality or the reality of how people shop. Which one would you have bought in real life if not required to go for the more expensive per oz bag due to the limitations of the experiment? You have brought out a good point.

I am participating in the experiment by providing prices, but I would not buy a single one of the products at their regular price. I look for rock bottom prices on the foods we eat regularly and then stock up according to our needs.

This week I have been able to get a 10 oz. bag of natural potato chips for free after coupon. I have already gotten (3) bags and will get (8) more before the sale is over. I won't be paying for potato chips for the rest of the year.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Speaking of coupons my wife loves that extreme coupon show. WOW talk about stocking up for the end of the world. Thousands of dollars of groceries for $100 or less. Some got cash back. The one lady said that's $800 worth of coupons right there in that pile.. I laughed and thought, "and some people say that the USD is worthless"

[Virgil Showlion]

Dancin', your prices are certainly among the lowest in the experiment.

[decoy409]

Let's not leave this thread behind!

[The Virginian]

Found this on MSN Money - Thought it would be interesting to those following this thread.[/b]


Russet potatoes
Current average price: $3.07 for a 5-pound bag
Price change (from Q1): up 43 cents
Percent change: 16.3%
Projected change for 2011: 4.5%-5.5%
Savings tip: Make the most of a bargain 20-pound sack of spuds. Mashed, fried, baked or roasted, potatoes are filling and can stretch a meal budget. Store in a dark, cool place to keep fresh longer.




Sirloin tip roast
Current average price: $4.48 per pound
Price change (from Q1): up 52 cents
Percent change: 13.1%
Projected change for 2011: 7%-8%
Savings tip: Minimize your mealtime costs and make your cardiologist happy by going meatless twice a week. A family of four can save $624 annually.

Bacon
Current average price: $4.18 per pound
Price change (from Q1): up 32 cents
Percent change: 8.3%
Projected change for 2011: 6.5%-7.5%
Savings tip: Get a better deal by buying your bacon in bulk from a warehouse club. Put your extra slabs of pork in re-sealable plastic bags, and stash them in the freezer. Bacon defrosts rapidly.

Apples
Current average price: $1.56 per pound
Price change (from Q1): up 11 cents
Percent change: 7.6%
Projected change for 2011: 3%-4%
Savings tip: Buy apples by the bagful rather than individually to reap a lower unit cost. Stow your Granny Smiths and Red Deliciouses in the refrigerator to keep them crisp and juicy.

Sliced deli ham
Current average price: $5.26 per pound
Price change (from Q1): Up 35 cents
Percent change: 7.1%
Projected change for 2011: 6.5%-7.5%
Savings tip: Ask your local butcher for the lunchmeat ends that may otherwise go to waste. They're cheaper than a pound of deli meat and just as tasty in your brown-bag lunch.

Ground chuck
Current average price: $3.29 per pound
Price change (from Q1): up 19 cents
Percent change: 6.1%
Projected change for 2011: 7%-8%
Savings tip: Instead of buying ground beef, purchase a chuck roast on sale and grind it yourself. It'll taste the same -- or perhaps better, considering the money you'll save -- and allay your mystery-meat fears.

Whole milk
Current average price: $3.62 per gallon
Price change (from Q1): up 16 cents
Percent change: 4.6%
Projected change for 2011: 5%-6%
Savings tip: Reserve your regular milk for your morning bowl of cereal. For recipes that call for milk, use the less expensive powdered version instead. Just add water. You won't taste the difference.

[The Virginian]

Vegetable oil
Current average price: $3.01 for a 32-ounce bottle
Price change (from Q1): up 13 cents
Percent change: 4.5%
Projected change for 2011: 6%-7%
Savings tip: If you normally use expensive extra virgin olive oil for cooking, opt for a lower grade instead. Scan your supermarket shelves for bottles labeled simply "olive oil."



Toasted oat cereal
Current average price: $3.17 for a 9-ounce box
Price change (from Q1): up 12 cents
Percent change: 3.9%
Projected change for 2011: 3.5%-4.5%
Savings tip: Try your grocer's store-label equivalent or buy a generic version of your favorite morning munchies. If you can't live without name brands, look for coupons in the Sunday newspaper.

Eggs
Current average price: $1.65 per dozen
Price change (from Q1): up 3 cents
Percent change: 1.9%
Projected change for 2011: 4.5%-5.5%
Savings tip: Visit your farmers' market near closing time for a better deal on fresh, locally produced eggs. At day's end, vendors are more likely to slip something extra into your bag.

Orange juice
Current average price: $3.18 for a half-gallon
Price change (from Q1): up 4 cents
Percent change: 1.3%
Projected change for 2011: 3%-4%
Savings tip: Head to the frozen foods aisle for cheaper-per-ounce and just-as-refreshing orange juice concentrate. Add water, stir and enjoy the very same vitamin C rush.

Bread
Current average price: $1.86 for a 20-ounce loaf
Price change (from Q1): up 2 cents
Percent change: 1.1%
Projected change for 2011: 3.5%-4.5%
Savings tip: Pounce whenever your grocery store or bakery has a two-for-one sale. Eat one loaf immediately -- French toast for breakfast, sandwich for lunch and grilled cheese for dinner -- and freeze the other for later.

Bagged salad
Current average price: $2.67 per pound
Price change (from Q1): up 1 cent
Percent change: 0.4%
Projected change for 2011: 3%-4%
Savings tip: Go online to find discounts for popular brands of bagged salad. Check Facebook and Twitter pages for printable coupons, and subscribe to email alerts for special deals.




Flour
Current average price: $2.52 for a 5-pound bag
Price change (from Q1): up 1 cent
Percent change: 0.4%
Projected change for 2011: 3.5%-4.5%
Savings tip: Unless you're an avid baker, you probably don't use much flour. If that's the case, buy only what you need when you need it from a bulk bin. Don't let your money sit idle in the pantry.

[dancinmama]

Jun 19, 2011 2:36:40 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Dancin', your prices are certainly among the lowest in the experiment.

Really? Wow, I'm shocked. I have been getting them at Safeway. They are the normal prices and not anything that I would actually pay for the items!! For example, I wait until eggs are $.99/dozen (at Walgreens) then I'll buy 3-4 dozen. The last time I bought soda, I bought (6) 12-pks for $10 (sale and EB promotion at CVS). We don't really care for chicken breast, so I buy dark meat. The last time I bought it, I got drumsticks for $.69/lb. I recently got 8 oz. bags of Boulder Canyon "natural" potato chips for free (after "sale" and coupon) for free. The last time I bought sugar I got it for free using rewards at Walgreens and I bought (6) 4-lb. bags.

That's the way that I do most of my shopping. I wait until the things we usually eat/buy are on ad at their rock bottom price and then I buy enough to get us through until the next sale, hopefully.

I did buy fillet mignon for the 4th yesterday: $12.49/lb at Costco. But DH found 2 big bunches of asparagus at a local fruit stand yesterday for $1 to go with it!! ;D

Costco also had Stolichnaya vodka (1.75 ltr) priced at $17.49 after $4 Costco coupon. I bought 1/2 a dozen because I can't remember the last time I saw decent vodka that cheap.

[dancinmama]

Jun 19, 2011 2:21:53 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Speaking of coupons my wife loves that extreme coupon show. WOW talk about stocking up for the end of the world. Thousands of dollars of groceries for $100 or less. Some got cash back. The one lady said that's $800 worth of coupons right there in that pile.. I laughed and thought, "and some people say that the USD is worthless"

Extreme Couponing is supposed to be a "reality show", but there is nothing realistic about it. Yes, people do buy in quantity when they can get something really cheaply or for free (that's the way that I shop), but nobody really buys 60+ bottles of mustard or 50 containers of yogurt at one time. First, most stores, do not do double coupons (none of mine do) and a lot of the stores have bent their normal coupon policy in return for being featured on the show. Others have been featured and then have changed their coupon policies shortly after the show aired.

My mom used to "stockpile" when there was a good sale back in the 60s and 70s when I was growing up, so that's how I learned to shop that way. The only thing that I can remember her buying "too much of" was jello. It must have been a great sale cuz she bought a ton of it. I was taking it to school (in the box) and trading it with other kids for chips and cookies (my mom never bought much of that kind of stuff).

[decoy409]

dancinmama, that's how you do it at the store,for now that is. Thimbs up to you!

I have took advantage of the garden once again. Dehydrating many things as well as freezing. Still eating home grown veggies from 2 years ago!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Thanks dancinmamma I'll pass that on, makes sense, sorry I missed that before.

Good point FTI as well..

Now it all makes sense Deocy eats 2 year old veggies, mold, kinda like the mold in a psilocybin mushroom.

[wvugurl26]

Damn that must be a big garden decoy. Our stuff never lasts that long. Salsa is long gone, green beans were gone after Christmas, tomato juice is gone, spaghetti sauce is nearly gone, I think the corn is gone, my squash stash is nearly gone as are the peaches.

I don't think we've ever had to throw anything out but we have a 1 year rule on stuff frozen or canned from the gardens.

[decoy409]

wvugirl26, yes it is a nice size garden. What makes it even larger is 4 others that are going as well. Every year the same way it works out for the past 6 that I have been back this way.
I come from a large family and grew up on a farm. There were 10 of us kids and my Mom and Dad. We worked hard and ate very well. The stuff in the freezer that was near or at bottom was the last of that stuff from the garden from that long back. No freezer burn and it's fine.
Some have no idea even how to grow a seed much less be able to comprehend gardening as some are raised with the old silver spoon in their mouth.

[chiver78]

Jul 26, 2011 22:03:54 GMT -5 decoy409 said:

wvugirl26, yes it is a nice size garden. What makes it even larger is 4 others that are going as well. Every year the same way it works out for the past 6 that I have been back this way.
I come from a large family and grew up on a farm. There were 10 of us kids and my Mom and Dad. We worked hard and ate very well. The stuff in the freezer that was near or at bottom was the last of that stuff from the garden from that long back. No freezer burn and it's fine.
Some have no idea even how to grow a seed much less be able to comprehend gardening as some are raised with the old silver spoon in their mouth.

or raised by some ridiculously inept cooks. seriously.....I've got some dear, dear friends who can't cook to save their lives. they rely heavily on convenience meals, frozen extras from me, or they treat me to ingredients if I cook in their kitchen. please don't group everyone in the "silver spoon" crowd. that's all....thanks!

[decoy409]

chiver78,read my words you quoted again.

'Some have no idea even how to grow a seed much less be able to comprehend gardening as some are raised with the old silver spoon in their mouth.'
(end)

chiver78,the word I used is,'some' not: 'please don't group everyone in the "silver spoon" crowd.' not 'everyone.'

No foul as I am sure that you did not even catch the sentence structure.

[chiver78]

Jul 26, 2011 22:16:10 GMT -5 decoy409 said:

No foul as I am sure that you did not even catch the sentence structure.

mea culpa, decoy - I spend most of my non-EE time on P&M. sweeping generalities are far from uncommon over there.
enjoy your night.

[Virgil Showlion]

Yes, it's still happening.

Japan Rice Futures Surge 40%, Trigger Circuit Breaker On Concerns Fukushima Radiation Will Destroy Crops by Tyler:

70 years after rice futures trading was halted on the Tokyo Grain Exchange, it was finally reopened today... only to be halted immediately. The reason: concerns that Fukushima radiation would destroy rice crops and collapse supply sent the contract price soaring from the reference price of Y13,500 to a ridiculous Y18,500 at which point it was halted. Note the tick chart below which puts any of our own stupid vacuum tube-induced HFT algos to outright shame. That said, the move should not come as a surprise at least to our readers after we predicted the day Fukushima blew up (and even before) that very soon rice prices would surge to record highs. Little by little, that realization is dawning on everyone.

[jdnstl]

well i've tracked the prices for a whole year now and it was an overall increase for my neck of the woods. kroger's full non-card prices are extremely high. i think i will continue to track these but at a different store for 2012. it will be an interesting comparison from year-to-year.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

That is awesome Pat, good luck with your crop this yr. nothing better than homegrown!

[xia]

I really liked this experiment.
Overall the prices did go up for me.

Interesting thing to add, the targeted items didn’t go up as much as my grocery bill overall. Not sure about other location but like for example Philly cream cheese went up over 100% in regular price for me (yes I do stack like woman possessed every time it’s on sale).

My favorite yogurt: about 25% up over the year.
Duke’s mayo (the only one with no sugar I have ever found, hence why we only use it): went up almost a $1.00 through out the year. Thank goodness Win Dixie has it randomly on sale as BOGO.

So anyways, what I’m trying to say is, thanks to this experiment I trained myself to track lot more what I pay where and for what. I’m very grateful to you all for letting me participate.

[Deleted]

Feb 19, 2012 0:29:17 GMT -5 @patstab said:

I have onion sets out, they have been for 2 weeks or so now. I swear the bundles had half the normal number.

Also have many plants up that need transplanted, they are getting long and stringy in the small containers but it keeps raining. I hope this week to get some out and hope they survive.

Also wouldn't hurt to work the soil again before planting but can't still mud.

Prices are continuing their relentless rise in price. Very very high here. The 2 pound packages of bacon, for example, are almost $13, everything is like that.

I saw canned tomatoes, 14.5 ounce can normally $1.69 for $1.39. Thankfully I have lots and never buy them. I can make sauce out of my canned ones, also have juice and many other veggies that we don't have to buy. Right now I'm trying to eat more out of our pantry, freezer, and home canned goods so none will get old and have to be pitched. Although the chickens will eat anything I still hate to throw food out.

Feeding leftovers to the chickens isn't really throwing it out, it reduces the chicken feed cost per egg. I don't know about yours, but ours go crazy over the left over pizza that the DW cuts up for them.