Food Inflation Experiment +

[lifewasgood]

Last month while purchasing the quarterly supply of Chicken feed, the mill operator had increased the price of feed by approximately 20% from the previous quarter. He further stated, the increase was because they had ran out of corn, and the local corn suppliers were sitting on corn and not selling at a reasonable price. Therefore the mill had to purchase feed from another supplier to fulfill the local farmers needs. Thus cost increase. This week we get the story from local news that the local Ethanol facility is filing for bankruptcy protection. Why, cost of corn is to high to make ethanol at a profit.

Just thought it worth sharing!

[lifewasgood]

I know the wifey meter has pegged a couple times last quarter after visits to the local grocery store. She claims an increase in prices, I have to believe her claims or otherwise, well you can fill in the rest

[deziloooooo]

What size eggs, I purchase Jumbo, they were at $2 dz yesterday.{Publicks}

Dropped $115 on food and seriously, did not go nuts at all, in fact they said I saved $23 on specials, but it still was $115.. and I am single.

[deziloooooo]

What size eggs, I purchase Jumbo, they were at $2 dz yesterday.{Publicks}

[frankq]

Apr 7, 2011 12:43:05 GMT -5 txmover said:

Maybe I should have remained silent. Frank Q, at the end of the day I have learned a lot from everyone on this board. Yes, Decoy goes a little overboard sometimes however, I think we can all agree it's not all Roses all the time. Even FTI has voiced concern and caution recently. The problem I see is that so much time is spent splitting hairs and instigating each other for minor differences, we are all missing the big picutre. The big picture is finding a solution. Dem's, GOP, Tea Party, Rat Pack, D&G's....so much time spent pissing in each others boots that we fail to realize that in the end we're all standing in the same stuff. In regard to your reply to me, I am not one of "you people" that "always" tries to manipulate. That's a big assumption drawn on a single post. It's all good in the end. Peace!!

Fair enough. The "you people" was a bad choice of words on my part.

[frankq]

Apr 7, 2011 12:28:46 GMT -5 decoy409 said:

frank q., nope, not upset at all. And I am certainly sticking to my claim. Now let's highlight our posts today here in relevance to your comment and mine. In turn you can calculate the outcome shortly down the lane this year.
And yes,I do make these calls as shown in my thread in advance.

Thanks for your suport frank q. and have a great day!

Ok Decoy. We'll see if we have food shortages, famine and widespread civil unrest in the U.S. this year.

[MN-Investor]

"Food Inflation Experiment"

Isn't that when you put Peeps in the microwave?

[Virgil Showlion]

For those that may have been wondering about the astronomical annualized inflation values (for aggregates), there was an error in the way the values were being calculated.

It has since been remedied.

[Malarky]

so much time is spent splitting hairs and instigating each other for minor differences, we are all missing the big picture. The big picture is finding a solution. Dem's, GOP, Tea Party, Rat Pack, D&G's....so much time spent pissing in each others boots that we fail to realize that in the end we're all standing in the same stuff.

My personal experience is that it isn't worth venturing far out of EE because you run into so much of this. Sad, really, since I do know that there's a lot to be learned, yet I'm usually not willing to put on the hip boots and wade through it.
Thanks, Virgil for taking on the project.
Thanks to all the posters who are providing the data.
No thanks to the naysayers who shoot down whatever the rest of us might glean from this.

Personally? My grocery prices have skyrocketed. Anecdotal I know, but a fact of my life.

[mtntigger]

Malarky -

[wvugurl26]

Apparently I missed the March switch to monthly data and had no idea until I got a PM from Virgil. Not a problem going forward to note the prices monthly. Thanks Virgil for taking this over. It is interesting to see the different price variations.

I have been perplexed by the higher cost of staples in this area for years now. Some items that may tend more towards specialty in other areas (last place I lived in WV) are cheaper here but the staples are much pricier. In other larger cities that I have experience with, competition has resulted in much better prices. In an area as big as DC/Baltimore there should be plenty of competition but milk's still $4/gallon.

The only things I can come up with is that real estate is pricey and utilities seem to be much higher here which would drive up the costs of running the stores, so maybe its a result of other factors besides their inventory costs.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Nice job Virgil. Thanks for your time.

[Deleted]

I just updated my April numbers. I used sale prices for some of the items. I get the prices from peapod and it does not show me the nonsale price.

[usaone]

Food prices look steady for the year. They are inline with Prices in Pa.

Unless I'm not reading the chart correctly.

[chiver78]

I also missed the change to monthly posting, until I got the PM. I can provide new numbers tomorrow morning when I go shopping.

thanks for keeping up the thread, Virgil.

[cael]

I'll be submitting my Feb numbers (they weren't recorded) and getting April numbers probably this weekend!

[TrixAre4Kids]

Awesome job Virgil, thank you!

My March prices were from 3/30 (having the Mar/April mindset at that time) so I will wait until next weekend to obtain/post April's.

Thanks again,

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

Just wanted to let you know that the price on Lay's potato chips is going to be wrong.

Package size is now 10.5 oz, not 11 oz.

[Deleted]

Apr 10, 2011 15:23:31 GMT -5 The Walk of the Penguin Mich said:

Just wanted to let you know that the price on Lay's potato chips is going to be wrong.

Package size is now 10.5 oz, not 11 oz.

Yeah, I noticed this month that the price stayed at $3.99 in my store but now the package is 10.5 oz. Sneaky. I factored it up to show a price of $4.18 for 11 oz.

Great programming, Virgil!

[cael]

So actually my Feb prices were recorded. Trying to post my April numbers (didn't know it was monthly now) but after I enter the data, the "save data" button is gray & I can't click it. Is there a problem or am I doing something wrong?

[Virgil Showlion]

Cael, another poster was complaining about the same thing but I cannot for the life of me reproduce the error, either in IE or in Firefox.

So to confirm, if you:

• click on a cell in the data entry mode
• type in a price
• hit enter (and see that the price is actually stored in the cell)

you're saying that the 'Save' button doesn't become enabled at that point?

[lifewasgood]

Virgil, not trying to be a stick in the mud, but may I suggest you have a monthly close date for data. I noticed the % for Jan is still rising which suspects the data in my mind. I recommend closing all data input on the 5th of each month for the previous months price inputs.

[cael]

Virgil, yeah. Let me try it on my ipod though and see what happens. Was going to try on the computer at work tomorrow too..

[cael]

All set! must've just been a problem with me IE. Thanks!

[Deleted]

Apr 10, 2011 20:21:28 GMT -5 @lifewasgood said:

Virgil, not trying to be a stick in the mud, but may I suggest you have a monthly close date for data. I noticed the % for Jan is still rising which suspects the data in my mind. I recommend closing all data input on the 5th of each month for the previous months price inputs.

Some of us go back and correct things. I realized that we needed to input the price of a 4-lb. bag of sugar and that I'd factored up the cost for a 4-lb. bag to the 5-lb. equivalent last month. This time I corrected the previous point so both months reflect 4-lb bag prices. I may also have accidentally used bone-in chicken breast prices last month; the increase looks pretty steep.

But Virgil could still lock data as of a specific date and then accept corrections via PM.

[mtntigger]

Apr 11, 2011 10:16:11 GMT -5 @athena53 said:

Apr 10, 2011 20:21:28 GMT -5 @lifewasgood said:

Virgil, not trying to be a stick in the mud, but may I suggest you have a monthly close date for data. I noticed the % for Jan is still rising which suspects the data in my mind. I recommend closing all data input on the 5th of each month for the previous months price inputs.

Some of us go back and correct things...

Exactly! I know I changed a January price on my spreadsheet when I was comparing my two months of data. The price change was perfectly legit as I recorded two sets of prices for the chicken in Jan. Plus, now that I'm going to collect prices monthly, I'll need to change my April prices to March (which I won't do until I have the new set of data at the end of April).

No, lifewasgood, you aren't being a stick in the mud, you are being a naysayer. If you were a stick in the mud, you would have volunteered for this experiment instead of spending time calling the rest of us liars.

[lifewasgood]

Yet another

I never once called anyone a liar, just made a simple suggestion to help preserve the quality of the data. Going back and changing or adding to previous data inputs (in this case nearly 4 months ago) calls into question data Fidelity, regardless to whether it makes it look better or worse.

I think this is a cool experiment and look forward to watching it monthly. Just hope the data sets are quality data sets.

"Yeah, I noticed this month that the price stayed at $3.99 in my store but now the package is 10.5 oz. Sneaky. I factored it up to show a price of $4.18 for 11 oz."

The above is another example of how the data can become suspect. The participating members will need to be very watchful of these type events.

[mtntigger]

How am I a crybaby? Because an armchair quarterbacker wants in on the game? No, you didn't call anybody a liar per say; you've just inferred it by stating that the reports are all suspect. I've looked at the list of volunteers and based on their posts, I trust most of them to come up with accurate numbers. Why would people volunteer to go to the store with pen and paper to jot down prices unless they are going to do it honestly?

[lifewasgood]

O my bad, did not know this was closed to only those that collect the data.

No further inputs from me, have fun with your game.

[Virgil Showlion]

And peace once again cameth upon the lands...