Russian Elections 2012: Trouble in Paradise?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

This article is a must read, I will paste a bit, but this person has been on the ground for nine years....

Vladimir Putin and the Lessons of 1938

Back in Moscow, the Kremlin has cranked up the volume of hysterical anti-Western propaganda to a roar while cracking down on the last vestiges of the free media. All the while, he proclaims he wants peace and accuses Western leaders of hypocrisy and anti-Russian sentiment. If Putin wanted to do a better imitation of Adolf Hitler circa 1936-1938, he would have to grow a little mustache. Equally troubling is that the leaders of Europe and the United States have been doing a similarly good impersonation of the weak-kneed and risk-averse leaders who enabled Hitler’s rise in the 1930s....

....Nobody except the most naked of Kremlin apologists is debating whether Putin’s anything but a tyrant anymore. Instead, we’re searching for the right historical analogy: Is it Budapest 1956? Prague 1968? Austria 1938?
To which I say: Welcome to the club! It remains to be seen, however, if the media figures and politicians who have so quickly adopted my Anschluss rhetoric are willing and able to do what is necessary to stop repeating the past.....

.....Over the past nine years I have dedicated most of my life to opposing Vladimir Putin’s campaign to destroy democracy and civil liberties in Russia. My efforts have included everything from marching in the streets of Moscow to traveling to nearly every Russian province to sounding the alarm about the true nature of Putin’s regime as widely and loudly as possible. Eight years ago, my main arguments to international audiences were about the myths of Putin’s Russia. I explained over and over that no, Putin wasn’t really a democratically elected leader; our elections were a stage-managed charade. That yes, he really was a bad guy who was supporting rogue states abroad while in Russia he was persecuting dissidents, locking down the media under state control and subordinating the Russian economy to the Kremlin and his small circle of cronies. And if Putin is really so popular in Russia, I asked, why is he so afraid of fair elections and a free media? For this, many in the West dismissed me as a fringe troublemaker who might potentially usurp their narrative of how engagement with Putin’s Russia was going to bring about reform and liberalization...

....I never imagined he would abuse and exploit them so easily, or that Western leaders would be so cooperative in allowing him to do so. Putin’s oligarchs bank in London, party in the Alps and buy penthouses in New York and Miami, all while looting Russia under the auspices of a reborn KGB police state. It’s “rule like Stalin, live like Trump.” The West has fulfilled every cynical expectation Putin had about how easy it would be to buy his way around any nasty confrontation over human rights. Even now, with Russian troops occupying Crimea in preparation for annexation, European countries are terrified of losing any Russian oligarch money. They are afraid of using the very thing that gives them so much potential leverage over Putin—exactly as he hoped.....

....A week or so later, to my surprise, “Anschluss” was on the front page of a Polish newspaper and on the lips of Hillary Clinton. And yet, those who oppose taking any serious action against Putin’s invasion of Crimea still enjoy scoffing at the now-obvious parallels with Hitler’s seizure of Austria and the Czech Sudetenland. It’s a hard habit to break, apparently.
It’s one thing for academics and pundits to calmly sympathize with Putin and his “vital interests” and his “sphere of influence,” as if 50 million Ukrainians should have no say in the matter. It’s quite another thing for Barack Obama, David Cameron and Angela Merkel to fret about the “instability” and “high costs” caused by sanctions against Russia—as if that could be worse than the instability caused by the partial annexation of a European country by a nuclear dictatorship, carried out with impunity.

[Virgil Showlion]

Even now, with Russian troops occupying Crimea in preparation for annexation, European countries are terrified of losing any Russian oligarch money. They are afraid of using the very thing that gives them so much potential leverage over Putin—exactly as he hoped..

They're broke.

So is the US.

Get used to it.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Haha, isn't calling the EU broke being generous Virg?

Considering the cease fire has been broken today in Crimea, yep, I'm thinking better get used to it. Right up until this little fish finds himself drawn into the Jihad.. What goes around comes around I guess. Stay .

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

We can play too!!

Russia to Retaliate with Sanctions Against American Leaders

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Back off and let us do what we want?

Russia Warns West it May Change its Stance on Iran

Remember, it wasn't Russia that wanted Crimea, it was the Ukrainian people that wanted out. It's actually the same thing that is going on in lots of Ukrainian provinces in the East right now. Should be interesting to see what happens when these Iranian warships show up on the American coast. Stay .

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Yep,yep, yep...

Moscow signals concern for Russians in Estonia

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Putin and the Kremlin are worried about these sanctions, without a doubt...

Russia 'closes Ukrainian Roshen chocolate factory'

Russian authorities have taken over a Ukrainian-owned sweet factory in the southern Russian city of Lipetsk, Ukraine's government says.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

But, but, but....

New Ukraine province in play as ethnic Russians push new secession referendum

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

But, but, this is only about Crimea! Putin said so!!

Russian politician proposes new divisions of Ukraine

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sanctions? What sanctions? Says Putin.

Brooklyn Nets owner says plans to bring NBA club under Russian jurisdiction
ONGC, Russia's Rosneft may join forces on oil flows

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I found this article interesting, especially these parts.

Power play over Ukraine: ‘hard power’ versus ‘soft power’

Russian commentators, both the few liberal critics and the many true followers of Putin, also anticipate further land grabs by the Russian president. Ex-world chess champion Garry Kasparov, who now heads the Human Rights Foundation in New York, has no compunction about comparing Putin with Hitler. Andrei Illarionov, a former economic adviser to Putin who broke with him some years ago, predicted Putin's takeover of Crimea at the end of February, before the actual Russian infiltration of the peninsula began. Now he says on Russian TV that Putin has a detailed program to set up a pro-Russia government in Kiev – and that some people in the Ukrainian government are ready to accept this as the price of remaining a nominally independent country.

Even Yana Amelina, pro-Putin senior analyst at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, enthusiastically expects the annexation of Crimea by Russia to become “a precedent for South Ossetia and the entire post-Soviet space.” She gives three chilling reasons why “Russia in no way can be limited to a single Crimea”: first, the millions of Russian speakers in Ukraine who are being repressed and must be protected by Russia; second, “the fate of Transnistria” that “will be possible only after the reunification of Russia and Novo Rossiya” (i.e., southern Ukraine); and third, Ukrainian ally Georgia must now “reflect upon the further existence” of their states.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I wonder how many know that there is already a break away Russian region in Moldova? Just keep spreading yourself thin Putin....

-Moldova region says it downed ‘Ukraine drone’
-Fears that Moldova’s breakaway republic Transdniester could be 'the next Crimea’
-Russia stages exercises in breakaway Moldova region of Transnistria

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

You have to wonder why the only coverage of Pro-Russia rally in Ukraine calls for more autonomy is coming from Iranian news sources...

It's probably because Obama has said that Putin is backing down, you know like this...

Russia Sees Progress on Ukraine as Putin Shifts to Diplomacy

Russia has insisted on constitutional reform in Ukraine, demanded the rights of the Russian-speaking population be observed and called for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to halt its eastward expansion.

The sanctions are working, Obama says... But then again...

Putin’s Powerful Friends Rally Around Russian President Despite Sanctions
Squeezing the World’s Oligarchs Will Not Work

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Check out the map in this article...

Ukraine: Kharkov, Donetsk, Lugansk demand autonomy

Then add another red dot here....

Pro-Russian, pro-European activists clash in Odessa

Oh and NOTAGAIN, this would be people picking up on what I have been calling for the last month here. Putin is spreading himself thin and opening himself up.


In taking Crimea, Putin will Lose Central Asia and the Caucasus

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I'm going to bring this post over from the "current events" Ukraine thread.....

Mar 17, 2014 9:52:03 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I agree Spell, only thing is it's looking more and more like....

Mar 6, 2014 0:16:20 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

This is the part where Putin, in his delusion state, spreads himself thin.
Stay all.

This map really outlines what Putin has on his mind, JMO. Again, stay all.

Why

Finland Frets as Russia Launches Military Drills on Its Doorstep

Stay all.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Yes, yes, these exercise near Finland were preplanned. These aren't the troops you are looking for..

Vladimir Putin ‘wants to regain Finland’ for Russia, adviser says

After annexing Crimea and with troops massed on the border of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will not stop trying to expand Russia until he has “conquered” Belarus, the Baltic states and Finland, one of his closest former advisers has said.

According to Andrej Illarionov, the President’s chief economic adviser from 2000 to 2005, Mr Putin seeks to create “historical justice” with a return to the days of the last Tsar, Nicholas II, and the Soviet Union under Stalin.

Speaking to the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, Mr Illarionov warned that Russia will argue that the granting of independence to Finland in 1917 was an act of “treason against national interests”.

“Putin’s view is that he protects what belongs to him and his predecessors,” Mr Illarionov said.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

"Pull back" the troops so our market recovers, and sanctions? What sanctions?

Putin says.....

Gazprom Raises Gas Export Price as Ukraine Looks for Cash

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

"Pull back", indeed. Wishing in one hand while $#'%ing in the other is never a good plan...

No sign of troop pullback: NATO

[bimetalaupt]

From CIA Factbook.

March 27, 2014


In the Ukraine and Russia entries the following statement has been added to the Government section, "Administrative divisions" field: The United States does not recognize Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the municipality of Sevastopol, nor their redesignation as the Republic of Crimea and the Federal City of Sevastopol.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Now, back to this massive short term/world changing event that is brewing..

Apr 3, 2014 1:31:10 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

From CIA Factbook.

March 27, 2014


In the Ukraine and Russia entries the following statement has been added to the Government section, "Administrative divisions" field: The United States does not recognize Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the municipality of Sevastopol, nor their redesignation as the Republic of Crimea and the Federal City of Sevastopol.

This is exactly it Bruce. There is zero chance of any kind of diplomatic solution here. The Syria talks are done, and noone is even talking about them anymore. John Kerry's forced peace deal was nothing but a false peace deal, and Putin is just waiting until the elections start in Europe. Hold onto your hats, this gonna be a bumpy ride.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The headlines say it all....

-Ukraine agency: Authorities dismantle group plotting attack
-Moscow politician calls for all 400 McDonald’s outlets in Russia to be shut down after fast-food giant exits Crimea
-Russian ambassadors: 'next we'll take Catalonia, Venice, Scotland and Alaska'
-Russia demands that NATO explain military buildup in Eastern Europe

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oops, let's not forget this...

-Eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk rallies in favor of independence referendum

But, but, the new billionaire gov said...

-Pro-Russian protests diminish in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

-Pro Russians Storm Government Buildings in Eastern Ukraine

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The reason this thread was started was to outline how the Russian people didn't want Putin in power. Like I have said before I was wrong about Putin's resolve. Now the next thing to consider is that Putin wants to tighten his grip at home.... After Ukraine, Russians brace for repressions. So while logic would dictate what this article outlines. The other side to the argument is that Putin wants his economy to go in the toilet so that he has a reason to use force for control. Stay .

Putin's Rejection of the West, in Writing

What kind of country is Vladimir Putin's Russia? The third year of his third presidential term has offered plenty of clues: the Crimea invasion, the shuttering of uncensored media outlets, prison terms for protesters. Now, Putin is planning to put the intellectual and ideological foundations of the new regime into words.

A document called "Foundations of the State Cultural Policy" has been under development since 2012. A special working group under Putin's chief of staff Sergei Ivanov will soon roll it out for a month of "public debate" before Putin gets to sign it. Quotes from the culture ministry's draft, presumably the basis for the final one, have leaked out.

"Russia must be viewed as a unique and original civilization that cannot be reduced to 'East' or 'West,'" reads the document, signed by Deputy Culture Minister Vladimir Aristarkhov. "A concise way of formulating this stand would be, 'Russia is not Europe,' and that is confirmed by the entire history of the country and the people."

Russia's non-European path should be marked by "the rejection of such principles as multiculturalism and tolerance," according to the draft. "No references to 'creative freedom' and 'national originality' can justify behavior considered unacceptable from the point of view of Russia's traditional value system." That, the document stresses, is not an infringement on basic freedoms but merely the withdrawal of government support from "projects imposing alien values on society."

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Scratch that, make that govt buikdings in all three cities that are highlighted in this map below were stormed today. This map is from the article in post #73... Stay .

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Lets not forget, Putin's parliament has already given him the greenlight to use force to protect Russian speaking people in Eastern Ukraine....



Russia Claims American Mercenaries Are in Eastern Ukraine

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Further complicating the whole scenario...

-Ukraine crisis: Vladimir Putin ups economic pressure
-Russia Rejects US Warnings Over Iran Oil deal

But hey, what does Putin care. Him and his buddies are "winning". Or there is the possibility they are being spread thin.... Stay .


-Syria crisis: Car bombings 'kill 25' in Homs

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Boy, these guys are really afraid of that 48h ultimatum that Kiev issued yesterday...

-Ukraine miners take to Donetsk streets in uprising that mimics Kyiv protests

Romanenko and his fellow activists, entrenched in the building where ousted president Viktor Yanukovych once ruled as governor, are demanding a vote on greater autonomy, joining similar movements in other heavily Russian-speaking cities in the country’s east. Outside is a scene reminiscent of Kyiv’s Independence Square, or Maidan, before rallies for closer ties with Europe turned deadly in February, leading to Yanukovych’s downfall and Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

While the eastern uprising looks and feels like Maidan, the roles have been reversed, with support coming from the east instead of the west as former Cold War rivals trade accusations of secret plots to spark unrest. Russia, with 40,000 troops across the border, said attempts by federal Ukrainian forces to quell the demonstrations threaten to lead to civil war.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

What? You mean Ukraine is on the very of bankruptcy?

That stern warning from the other day really seams to have worked well as..-Ukraine's PM says eastern regions should have more powers.... Wait, that's not right, that is actually the opposite of what Keiv was saying 48 hours ago...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Keep on truckin', rawhide!

-Ukraine crisis: Kyiv government to deploy troops in east