This War is Going Global(thanks Putin): it's still China's!

[tyfighter3]

It's just not being reported in the media like it should. There are a lot of people that don't want all of their Failures to show to the American people. I think it was Gorbachec that said we don't need to go to war with the US, we will beat them from within.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I hear ya. They are also trying to do all they can to keep tourism alive. It's the last thread the EU is holding onto at this point.

Without a doubt Islam has encroached further into our society than any political movement has. Thing is, none of these aholes - from the Russians to the Muslims - that have tried taking us down are from here, and they just don't get it. We ain't Europe. We have never been, and will never be, a Kingdom or an Empire so we can't be taken down like these old world enterprises. The heartland is an independent nation regardless of it's recognized or not, and me thinks their is about to be a big push back from The Middle.

[tyfighter3]

Kind of like getting close to a third World Country if tourism is the only thing left to hold onto. lol Since 2000 the Middle Class has gone through some of the worst times it has seen by having their savings wiped out by 2 market crashes and the last 8 years of not been able to save anything and with another market crash heading our way, being taxed and regulated to death trying to make a living. If you where one of the lucky ones that had some CASH on hand and bought on the low end of those Market crashes, you came out pretty good and if you had been in the Market for YEARS like some of us OLD GUYS, you have been alright. But if you are 35 to 40 years old and Middle Class, you have been taken to the Cleaners. I hear them, when they are saying ( I'm not taking this NO MORE). The Middle Class in this Country ARE waking up.

[bimetalaupt]

Sept 11, 2016 14:53:49 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Kind of like getting close to a third World Country if tourism is the only thing left to hold onto. lol Since 2000 the Middle Class has gone through some of the worst times it has seen by having their savings wiped out by 2 market crashes and the last 8 years of not been able to save anything and with another market crash heading our way, being taxed and regulated to death trying to make a living. If you where one of the lucky ones that had some CASH on hand and bought on the low end of those Market crashes, you came out pretty good and if you had been in the Market for YEARS like some of us OLD GUYS, you have been alright. But if you are 35 to 40 years old and Middle Class, you have been taken to the Cleaners. I hear them, when they are saying ( I'm not taking this NO MORE). The Middle Class in this Country ARE waking up.

T3,
In fact bonds did better then stocks or cash in 2008-2009.  The bond bull is now 35-40 years old so it is now a bit long in the tooth.  Guide Stone Extended-Duration Bond (GEDZX)  is at 8.18% total return ( from 8-2001) vs 5.28% for Growth Equity (GGEZX) .   
     The Market is one of many markets.  Wine market also has a better record for the upper end then stocks.  Diversification is the only free Lunch.  Again: KA$H IS KING!

Just a thought,
Bruce

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I hear what you are saying TY. A lot of people are frustrated at what has been a terrible recovery, and yes I agree that Trump - and to a lesser extent Sanders - shows that. I was referring to the whole, we're from the county and we like it that way... And that's why you can't keep the good ole' boys down.

Duke, Yep time and again the way to make it work is to not have all the eggs in one basket. Egg makers feed the ground crew that make more land for lunch.

[tyfighter3]

I do think Trumps Tax PLAN WILL MAKE MORE Egg Makers that feed ground crews that will make more land for Lunch. Still Kash is King

[tyfighter3]

www.marketwatch.com/story/what-to-do-with-a-chart-that-shows-no-place-for-investors-to-hide-2016-09-12?link=MW_latest_news

[bimetalaupt]

Sept 12, 2016 0:19:39 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I hear what you are saying TY. A lot of people are frustrated at what has been a terrible recovery, and yes I agree that Trump - and to a lesser extent Sanders - shows that. I was referring to the whole, we're from the county and we like it that way... And that's why you can't keep the good ole' boys down.

Duke, Yep time and again the way to make it work is to not have all the eggs in one basket. Egg makers feed the ground crew that make more land for lunch.

A+++++,
I am liking the new system of 50% stocks & ETF, 30% bonds esp. convertible and 20% cash AND OPTIONS. THEY CALL THIS  EFFECANT FRONTIER SYSTEM WITH GREATEST RETURN FOR THE LEST AMOUNT OF RISK.

JUST A THOUGHT,

DUKE

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 12, 2016 11:24:29 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

I do think Trumps Tax PLAN WILL MAKE MORE Egg Makers that feed ground crews that will make more land for Lunch. Still Kash is King

Yep. Plus the jobs and energy policies he has outlined. Bottom line here though, when the East goes full meltdown it will be like protectionism. Lots of money to invest into all kinds of economic activity in the US.

Oh, and hell ya Ka$h is king. Without ka$h there are no chickens or eggs.

Sept 12, 2016 12:52:17 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Sept 12, 2016 0:19:39 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I hear what you are saying TY. A lot of people are frustrated at what has been a terrible recovery, and yes I agree that Trump - and to a lesser extent Sanders - shows that. I was referring to the whole, we're from the county and we like it that way... And that's why you can't keep the good ole' boys down.

Duke, Yep time and again the way to make it work is to not have all the eggs in one basket. Egg makers feed the ground crew that make more land for lunch.

A+++++,
I am liking the new system of 50% stocks & ETF, 30% bonds esp. convertible and 20% cash AND OPTIONS. THEY CALL THIS  EFFECANT FRONTIER SYSTEM WITH GREATEST RETURN FOR THE LEST AMOUNT OF RISK.

JUST A THOUGHT,

DUKE

Duke,

Going way back in the discussion eh? The efficient frontier system: now in an unconventional bar bell... Using options to buy puts and calls against the ETFs? and bonds? Proceeds go to dividend paying stocks to increase future returns??

Sounds like it's close to the Sharpe ratio out on the Frontier that our physical asset deal is. Of course it's still on paper and not something tangible we hold in our hands.

God bless,

[tyfighter3]

Market valuations at 26x, highest it's been in a very long time, Bonds in a big Bubble right now. How long can it stay there? Election could set a Market selloff who ever wins. EU hasn't felt the effects of Briexit yet. The Feds have waited to long to be able to stop any bubble from busting. I'm getting old but this one sell off, I'm afraid I'm going to live to see. LOL

The only reason why we haven't seen this yet is all the people who put into their savings plans and funds at work every pay check and why the market comes back is because they DON'T look at their investments everyday like some of us do. Only a big enough sell off that makes the news where they NOW look at it will it turn into a BIG one.

[bimetalaupt]

Sept 12, 2016 16:46:36 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Sept 12, 2016 11:24:29 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

I do think Trumps Tax PLAN WILL MAKE MORE Egg Makers that feed ground crews that will make more land for Lunch. Still Kash is King

Yep. Plus the jobs and energy policies he has outlined. Bottom line here though, when the East goes full meltdown it will be like protectionism. Lots of money to invest into all kinds of economic activity in the US.

Oh, and hell ya Ka$h is king. Without ka$h there are no chickens or eggs.

Sept 12, 2016 12:52:17 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

A+++++,
I am liking the new system of 50% stocks & ETF, 30% bonds esp. convertible and 20% cash AND OPTIONS. THEY CALL THIS  EFFECANT FRONTIER SYSTEM WITH GREATEST RETURN FOR THE LEST AMOUNT OF RISK.

JUST A THOUGHT,

DUKE

Duke,

Going way back in the discussion eh? The efficient frontier system: now in an unconventional bar bell... Using options to buy puts and calls against the ETFs? and bonds? Proceeds go to dividend paying stocks to increase future returns??

Sounds like it's close to the Sharpe ratio out on the Frontier that our physical asset deal is. Of course it's still on paper and not something tangible we hold in our hands.

God bless,

tse1.mm.bing.net/th?&id=A31a324e8f0e4f6a215d3d2680de0fbbe&w=293&h=161&c=0&pid=1.9&rs=0&p=0&r=0




Efficient Frontier



AAA |  What is the 'Efficient Frontier'



The efficient frontier is the set of optimal portfolios that offers the highest expected return for a defined level of risk or the lowest risk for a given level of expected return. Portfolios that lie below the efficient frontier are sub-optimal, because they do not provide enough return for the level of risk. Portfolios that cluster to the right of the efficient frontier are also sub-optimal, because they have a higher level of risk for the defined rate of return.



BREAKING DOWN 'Efficient Frontier'



Since the efficient frontier is curved, rather than linear, a key finding of the concept was the benefit of diversification. Optimal portfolios that comprise the efficient frontier tend to have a higher degree of diversification than the sub-optimal ones, which are typically less diversified. The efficient frontier concept was introduced by Nobel Laureate Harry Markowitz in 1952 and is a cornerstone of modern portfolio theory.



Optimal Portfolio



One assumption in investing is that a higher degree of risk means a higher potential return. Conversely, investors who take on a low degree of risk have a low potential return. According to Markowitz's theory, there is an optimal portfolio that could be designed with a perfect balance between risk and return. The optimal portfolio does not simply include securities with the highest potential returns or low-risk securities. The optimal portfolio aims to balance securities with the greatest potential returns with an acceptable degree of risk or securities with the lowest degree of risk for a given level of potential return. The points on the plot of risk versus expected returns where optimal portfolios lie is known as the efficient frontier.



Selecting Investments



Assume a risk-seeking investor uses the efficient frontier to select investments. The investor would select securities that lie on the right end of the efficient frontier. The right end of the efficient frontier includes securities that are expected to have a high degree of risk coupled with high potential returns, which is suitable for highly risk-tolerant investors. Conversely, securities that lie on the left end of the efficient frontier would be suitable for risk-averse investors.



Limitations



The efficient frontier and modern portfolio theory have many assumptions that may not properly represent reality. For example, one of the assumptions is that asset returns follow a normal distribution. In reality, securities may experience returns that are more than three standard deviations away from the mean more than 0.03% of the observed values. Consequently, asset returns are said to follow a leptokurtic distribution, or heavy tailed distribution.



Additionally, Markowitz's theory assumes investors are rational and avoid risk when possible, there are not large enough investors to influence market prices, and investors have unlimited access to borrowing and lending money at the risk-free interest rate. However, the market includes irrational and risk-seeking investors, large market participants who could influence market prices, and investors do not have unlimited access to borrowing and lending
Read more: Efficient Frontier Definition | Investopedia www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientfrontier.asp#ixzz4K5njb8V2

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[bimetalaupt]

A+++++,

During the period of rising interest my largest holding were banks and life insurance.  Made money on theses' holdings.   


Just a thought,

Duke  

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 12, 2016 19:54:39 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

A+++++,

During the period of rising interest my largest holding were banks and life insurance.  Made money on theses' holdings.   


Just a thought,

Duke  

Duke,

Makes a ton of sense. Banks and Insurance co make more money when rates are higher and rising. Which is why we are seeing banks in Japan take it on the chin, and the EU black hole: Italian bank UniCredit's woes felt across Europe

Which is the crux of it, and what the article TY posted is talking about. We aren't entering a rising rate environment - like your options as a guard against poor GDP - we are entering uncharted waters. But I told ya my compass stiled worked even in these kinds of conditions.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Gee, having three or four factions fighting for control isn't working out..

Rival faction in Libya captures vital oil ports

And then, China isn't afraid to pull any punches: Row as Air China warns of London's 'Indian, Pakistani and black' neighbourhoods

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

You know there is a large problem when the majority of media outlets completely ignore something like this...

Situation in Europe should develop into civil war

The third European jihadist generation hopes to radicalization of Muslims and seeks to establish a caliphate in Europe ruins. What the French Islam expert Gilles Kepel advises.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Should be posted in "Things are going so poorly for the Islamic State." along with the article above... But that thread is almost better left now until the turn in the war a few years from now. Stay

European Leaders Discuss Plan for European Army "We are going to move towards an EU army much faster than people believe."

Eastern German town of Bautzen witnesses clashes between locals and refugees

A small town in the state of Saxony has reported a second night of violence between residents and migrants. The town has repeatedly been the scene of such confrontations in recent months.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

A fence to the Arctic, and .... the Balkans and SE Asia becoming hotbeds and Africa experiencing increasing violence.

The first article below talks about how the US has started WW3.. lets face it, man thinking they are in control of God's Kingdom has started WWIII. Plus, the "Islamic State" has accomplished the goal of drawing a coalition of all the world powers to the place where the Mujahideen have been waiting it to go. Stay

-Syrian Politician to Sputnik: 'WWIII Has Begun, and It's Being Fought in Syria
-Dabiq: First shots fired at site of Islamic State’s apocalyptic prophecy
-The other jihadist state Eclipsed by Islamic State, al-Qaeda may be making a comeback in a more pragmatic, and dangerous, form
-Taliban promotes ‘Special Group’ training in northwestern Pakistan

[bimetalaupt]

A++++++,
Look at this way! The value of oil is less and less all the time.  Scania now produces a version of 4 cycle or 5 cycle diesel engine that runs on 95% ethanol.  When not if lithium is able to run 250 miles on a full charge oil will be out of the picture.  Diesel ran his first four cycle power plant on peanut oil, so can we too.

 Now for wind and solar power:    in growth of wood and energy from trees.  You know trees have been the number one producer of renewable power for 1,000 years.  With the increase in CO2 in our air we should see ( per lab results) and increased of growth from trees.   I ran a computer model years ago that suggested we need to cut down all the old growth trees and replant them with new faster growing trees and feed them with minerals.  This would reduce the production of methane released in the air.   

The best cure for high prices are high prices.  Ford and Dodge proved this with the "T".  Cheaper to run a Horseless cartage then feed a horse.  It is time to fire up the grill with renewable wood and smoke some dead cow!  Then have a cold beer! or red wine from Texas.  

Just my thoughts on energy cost! Duke 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Duke, we can debate the merits of lithium til the cows come home.(exploding in batteries and all ). To be fair, with 1100 acres of wood and "a few" cubic FT of NG from West Texas, it was never discussed as to why more feed stock was needed. It wouldn't be!! Right?

Yes it's time to fire up that grill and celebrate. Bioblend products of our choice and true renewable energy for the electric future.

[bimetalaupt]

Sept 25, 2016 14:39:32 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Duke, we can debate the merits of lithium til the cows come home.(exploding in batteries and all ). To be fair, with 1100 acres of wood and "a few" cubic FT of NG from West Texas, it was never discussed as to why more feed stock was needed. It wouldn't be!! Right?

Yes it's time to fire up that grill and celebrate. Bioblend products of our choice and true renewable energy for the electric future.

A+++++,
Sorry, Let me try this again.  We can use LEAD rather then Lithium.  Try 36-48 volt system to run farms on with 100% of the work on the farm using computers and Homopolar electric motors to run the power from electric to needed work,  As I said before diesel first used Peanut oil. YES WE WILL CONVERT MASS TO FUEL ALSO.  AT THIS POINT THE MIDDLE EAST WITH NOT BE A WORLD WIDE FACTOR BUT THE $$$$$ WILL BE.  WHEN I WAS AT UT-AUSTIN THERE WAS A PRESENTATION ABOUT BUILDING MASSIVE BUILDING WITH ALL NEEDED COMPONENTS OF LIFE UNDER A SINGLE ROOF.  THE USE OF ENERGY WAS REDUCED BY 90% ( AS i RECALL).  
I THINK THE RECHARGE TIME ON LEADS IS ALSO LESS THE LITHIUM.  
CURE FOR HIGH PRICES HAS BEEN HIGH PRICES WITH A CHEAPER PRODUCTS REPLACING  MORE COSTLY.

Just my thoughts, Duke

Lead



The lead grids, lead oxide and other lead parts are cleaned and then melted together in smelting furnaces.



The molten lead is poured into ingot molds. Large ingots, weighing about 2,000 pounds are called hogs. Smaller ingots, weighing 65 pounds, are called pigs. After few minutes, the impurities, otherwise known as dross, float to the top of the still-molten lead in the ingot molds. The dross is scraped away and the ingots are left to cool.



When the ingots are cool, they are removed from the molds and sent to battery manufacturers, where they are re-melted and used in the production of new lead plates and other parts for new batteries.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Duke, ah there we go. Lead(Pb), and they are saying from MIT that coal could also be used in batteries and other electronic devices. Yes automation will be a driver in electricity usage as well. I like the sounds of the farm!

Lots of r&d work for people in that space anyway....

That's the beautiful thing about our process,right? The middle east isn't a factor - yet - and we still make bank$$$$$. Our process can evolves as the market place does, and all that CO2 captured from the plant to make things is now added to the fact our trees capture CO2 as well. Like you were saying, think of the $$$$$$ we are going to make of CO2!!

So, what you're saying is that the idea I had a couple months back about shopping malls being turned into eco-villages fits with a study you took years ago? Makes sense.

[tyfighter3]

YES, and I'm glad we still have OIL, NG, COAL, and WOOD , WATER and Atomic Energy in place to get us by the next 50 to 100 years, till we can get the  GREEN cost in place to take it over. But until then I don't want to see all of our energy we have in place to be labeled bad under bad information. It still takes energy to make electricity. In 1900, how many people new about Cars or Airplanes?  Peoples Brain Power over the next 100 years should make our energy problems of today, obsolete. Cost is every thing but I sure don't want Government in it to mess it up.    

[bimetalaupt]

Sept 25, 2016 23:04:13 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

YES, and I'm glad we still have OIL, NG, COAL, and WOOD , WATER and Atomic Energy in place to get us by the next 50 to 100 years, till we can get the  GREEN cost in place to take it over. But until then I don't want to see all of our energy we have in place to be labeled bad under bad information. It still takes energy to make electricity. In 1900, how many people new about Cars or Airplanes?  Peoples Brain Power over the next 100 years should make our energy problems of today, obsolete. Cost is every thing but I sure don't want Government in it to mess it up.    

T3,
This is getting complex with many different and conflicting thoughts from all forms of directions.  Like wood , the energy is from light produced by Fusion.   Wood stores the energy:we may concentrate to produce charcoal or diesel etc.  During the 1990's when I did my cost study of renewable energy I discovered wood produced more energy then all other forms of renewable energy combined.  Every year Eric and I cut about three or four cords of "Free" wood from the ranch. In theory we could run our trucks on charcoal made from the wood by converting to diesel.  It is all about cost.  We could also  run the diesel motors on peanut oil like Diesel did: It could just cost more.   We do things like plowing that use too much energy just because that is what has always been done.  Why? 
Just my thoughts, Duke

[tyfighter3]

We haven't done much plowing here in the corn belt for over 35 years now. When I was 10 the IL Dept. of Ag was running a essay contest. I wrote my essay on Soil and Water Conservation and too my surprise, I won it. It was about No Till Farming. I was ahead of my time back then. LOL I've always been for doing the job with the least amount of money. The bottom line is where it's always been.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 26, 2016 11:21:08 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Sept 25, 2016 23:04:13 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

YES, and I'm glad we still have OIL, NG, COAL, and WOOD , WATER and Atomic Energy in place to get us by the next 50 to 100 years, till we can get the  GREEN cost in place to take it over. But until then I don't want to see all of our energy we have in place to be labeled bad under bad information. It still takes energy to make electricity. In 1900, how many people new about Cars or Airplanes?  Peoples Brain Power over the next 100 years should make our energy problems of today, obsolete. Cost is every thing but I sure don't want Government in it to mess it up.    

T3,
This is getting complex with many different and conflicting thoughts from all forms of directions.  Like wood , the energy is from light produced by Fusion.   Wood stores the energy:we may concentrate to produce charcoal or diesel etc.  During the 1990's when I did my cost study of renewable energy I discovered wood produced more energy then all other forms of renewable energy combined.  Every year Eric and I cut about three or four cords of "Free" wood from the ranch. In theory we could run our trucks on charcoal made from the wood by converting to diesel.  It is all about cost.  We could also  run the diesel motors on peanut oil like Diesel did: It could just cost more.   We do things like plowing that use too much energy just because that is what has always been done.  Why? 
Just my thoughts, Duke

JMO, it's the either/or argument. It's all about a hybrid future. Batteries are unreliable and until they can hold their charge and drive for a thousand miles over a couple days without needed juice, we can't go all electric. Think about how many times a battery has failed you. A drill, the cell phone, now; apply that to your car.. no thanks. However, if there was clean fuel in the tank to fire the car up, and for the majority of my drives I can keep it under 60KMs, I have the best of both worlds.

This coincidentally is how we make our natural resources last for hundreds of years.

Without a doubt wood is the only true renewable resource - Frank was saying the same thing when I was talking to him today - and since it can be utilized in the same way as coal - as you are saying Bruce - it's the perfect medium to blend with NG and coal for fuel and electricity.(depending on what the closest feedstock is) BioBlend hybrid hydrocarbon feedstock for a hybrid electric future.

[tyfighter3]

Where in the World is the best Charcoal made and from what tree and by whom? The answer might surprise you.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Did a bit of searching on it, what's the answer??

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's so far beyond a problem in the Middle East, yet it's not.... Stay

-The gathering storm
-A Military Attack on Pakistan Will Lead to India’s Worst Nightmare
-Islamic State Eyes Stronghold in Strategic Syrian Province
-IS Retakes Control of Former Strongholds in Afghanistan
-Taliban onslaught in Helmand forces thousands to flee
-First Helmand, then Afghanistan
-Sweden: 8 out of 10 police officers considering quitting

[tyfighter3]

Aman, their really isn't a good answer to that question. That's what surprising about it. It's all in the eye of the user. I prefer Kingsford and the tree is all about flavor. lol The trouble around the World is, that trees aren't replenished that are used up for making it. You only have to look at Africa for that.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

LOL, that's exactly what I was thinking when I was reading. Different flavors for different folks.

I hear ya about charcoal in Africa. I was reading that they just haven't gotten the replanting part down in the renewable cycle..