Economy, the worst is yet to come.

[kadee79]

Have any of you read the article yet? What do you think?

money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=e870b663-1471-467f-adc5-318f6cd40ea7

[kadee79]

Sooooooooooooooooo???

No opinions?

[ModE98]

Nothing is beyond possibility. The stock market and the world economy appear disjointed. The world markets could come down if the world economic situation deterioates beyond expectations. We are a long way from finding Shangri-La. This world is constantly in one mess or another....I am far too advanced in age to much give a hoot and, whatever will be, will be. Amen. Will just let the bumbling politicians and their so-called "expert" economic/financial advisors figure it out and rescue us from total chaos. Oh well, bah humbug.

[kadee79]

No, it's not scaring me because I don't have near as much invested as a lot of you do.
However, I'm just an old woman with only a high school education and I think I have more common sense than a lot of these folks that are running our country and trying to run the world!

I don't worry too much about what will happen with me either since I'm past retirement age, but I do worry for my Grandkids. What are we going to be leaving them?

I think there is a lot more going on than any of "us" will ever find out and I think some politicians may just be in for a huge surprise before it is all over. And it may not be good!

I don't know why I posted that without finishing my thoughts. Duh!

I think we are going to have more yo-yo for awhile but I also think that a lot of things are going to sink.....way down! And being an optimistic female....SALE! And hold!

[kadee79]

Thanks DI!

[The Virginian]

We are still in the grips of a Depression. Not the end of the world, and not a reason to stop investing ( I would argue just the opposite, now is the time to increase your investing) but certainly trying times for most.

Our sales were down about 40% for the month of October. Our Halloween season is like the Christmas season for most store. Talking to Manufacturer Reps I am seeing that our sales were not much different than those of other stores across the US. Manufacturers were shocked to see such a miserable Halloween this year. What does surprise me is all the talk on TV about how well stores are doing. Every business owner I talk to reports the same thing to me, their sales started declining in 2008 and have dropped each year since.

[The Virginian]

Agree -

My goals are :

1) to stay fully invested - 2) Try and preserve assets and 3) position myself for the Bull Market of Bull Markets.

It will happen, I don't know when - it might be within a year or 4,5,6 or more years from now but I want to have as many shares in great companies as possible so I can take full advantage of it. Even if it takes awhile dividends keep buying shares for me so when it pops it will pop big.

[Deleted]

We are finally seeing the competition in our market start to decrease. Some of it is companies going under, some of it is companies shrinking their geographic market to be more efficient and some of it is other factors. We didn't think it would take this long to happen, but we were pretty sure it would happen.

And this is good news for our company. Our backlog is now almost back to pre-recession levels. Granted, the margins are not as high, but we need to get the top line back first and then work on increasing our margins again.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

DI your posts are great.. Ramble on!

I have to agree with wxyz again about the article. I have read quite a few of his, and they are always very bearish and I find him quite inaccurate. However, It's a great discussion to bring up, thanks Kadee!

I have to disagree that this a full on depression. Housing for sure.. That is obviously a huge overall drag. However, there is growth in manufacturing, farming, Medical, and Energy. It is obviously not as robust as a "boom" recovery, but the difference in Mr.V's and Archie's posts illustrates what I am talking about. There is also the biggest part of the economy, the people who control it, and they aren't as beat down as the media is saying they are..

Tax Inflows Show Income Gains to Lift Spending: Economy
www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-07/tax-inflows-show-income-gains-to-lift-spending-economy.html

Plus there is also the fact that when he wrote this, the idea that China would just give up debt to the USA was not even on any of these analysts radar. If you go to MT and look at the thread, the new speculation, you will see that I was speculating on just that very thing a while back.

I have had that worked into my numbers for quite a while. Just in a different way, a more bearish way, because I thought it would be involving food, however, it's infrastructure.

These are all jobs that have to be done with a lot of man power. Guys that need jobs right now, this will be huge for the overall economy. Basically a one Trillion dollar long term stimulus plan, with debt you guys already created.. I know, international fiance...

Plus, the middle east and Africa are going to be a long time before they are at full production, and this has already caused a huge spike in oil shipments from the USA to China. That's only going to grow because China literally HAS to stimulate their economy with the other 1.5 trillion they have. They won't have an economy left if they don't. They are still in their infancy, and they have no navy to protect their oil shipments, Therefore...

China, US launch radiation detection system at Shanghai port to check for nuclear materials <-------- Plus a whole lot of other stuff too!
www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/china-us-launch-radiation-detection-system-at-shanghai-port-check-on-nuclear-weapons-terror/2011/12/06/gIQAxtZ6aO_story.html

Aside from the EU's problems that everyone knows about so probably aren't as serious as they say, 2012 is looking like a good year.

[2kids10horses]

kadee66,

I don't know about the ecomomy, but the following article shows how "The Market" is saying that we still have about 10 years or so to go in the Bear market that started in 2000.

advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-111208-The-Great-Repression.php

It's worth a read.

[kadee79]

Dec 9, 2011 21:01:34 GMT -5 2kids10horses said:

kadee66,

I don't know about the economy, but the following article shows how "The Market" is saying that we still have about 10 years or so to go in the Bear market that started in 2000.

advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-111208-The-Great-Repression.php

It's worth a read.

I agree in part with wxyz! All that "technical" stuff bores me to no end. I don't have the patience to try to study it. Besides, I'm female and respond more to what I see with my own eyes and woman's intuition! And yes, you can laugh at that but it works as often as any other "stuff"!
I belonged to a women's investment club for several years and we studied all the aspects of the "technical" stuff there before we made a purchase. We didn't do any better that way than I did on my own with my intuitive purchases in my own account. We did have one speaker that made more sense to me than all the brokers & other speakers we hosted....SHE was an extremely successful investor. She had one rule of thumb that she followed no matter what....make 20% (after subtracting fees) and get out. Don't get "married" to any one stock. You can always come back & re-buy in a down turn if you really like one, but be sure to get that first 20%! That advice has always served me well.

But I think we are in for a real drop in the not to distant future. And I don't have any experts to quote or graphs to post, it's just my feeling.

From some of the articles that have appeared in recent days, a good percentage of farmers had a fantastic year BUT there were an lot who had no year at all....I'm thinking Tx. and here in my area. There is also the immigration question that has just been accepted by the SC...that may play a BIG part in what happens with farmers in the southern states all across the country. There are also some other things that are going to affect the farmers in coming years....I'm not sure the farmers are seeing it yet, but it will change a LOT of things. And I tend to gage our economy by what happens at the farm level.

[Small Biz Owner]

I read the link. Anthony Mirhaydari warns of bear market?

Less than 6 months ago this same guy was saying ....

6/29/2011 5:00 PM ET. By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money. You'll hear that the recovery is already over. But actually, it's still here, and this bull has room to run

It is the same thing over and over again with this fool of a writer. Bull, bear, bull, bear ... can't make up his mind. Or, to point back and say "see I told you so" I predicted a bull/bear market last year.

He is totally worthless, just like MSN who let him publish

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Dec 8, 2011 4:46:15 GMT -5 @di said:

Thanks AHam.

Interesting thought - We get the feeling that something is going to happen relatively soon..
Part of this is just a gut feeling- Part of this is the Reaction in our Numbers..

Allow me to explain just a bit..
See we have 75 different Postions open in the Markets - Fairly covering all 11 Major Market Sectors..
Now we are slightly overweight in the Utility Sector...
But here is the rub..
Looking back at the period in which we were all tied up in our "epic Drama" - we notice that there was a string of nasty days, not so good "good" days.. Yet, even though those nasty days took a good chunk out of our Bottom line, the Ehh it ain't great but could be worse days (upside even by a thread) - have brought most all of the chunk back in to our bottom line...

So in other words what we see is that 5 or 6 days took a bite out of our Portfolio, yet just a few "so-so" days have brought all but just a tiny bit back ($600)...
We also have noticed that the Money coming back is starting to be more pronounced in areas that we are a bit lighter in, and have been a bit touchy about diving into full hog.. (not Financials or Real Estate)...

Now we saw this in reverse in December 08 / January 09...

But unlike then, the Heckles on the back of our neck aren't tingling.. We don't get a sense of impending doom..

Really, our feeling is that the next 6 weeks are going to be VERY important to Pay close attention...
Seriously we are nearly 6 years out from the start of this mess, and almost 3 years out from the "bottom" of March 09...

Also we have noticed something brewing in one of our Options Contracts - the Momentum is starting to gain steam in the direction we have been hoping to see...

For the upcoming year there are several things we think may be very worthy of owning, but are reluctant to make any predictions - Yet...

Interesting points DI, I think the reason that the hairs aren't tingling on your neck is because the banking system isn't drained of cash like it was in '08.

The situation is slowing getting better and the business world is really going bi-polar, I meant that in the sense of a magnet. Iran has just recently warned of how bad this would be, ya for them.. LOL

[stayput]

Dec 3, 2011 13:30:58 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

Have any of you read the article yet? What do you think?

money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=e870b663-1471-467f-adc5-318f6cd40ea7

This is exactly what the Liberals/Socialists have been denying. When the facts are irrefutable, they then go into their "blame mode". This is where they blame everyone else. They will NEVER admit that the destruction of our economy is a direct result of their uncontrollable tax/print/spending programs.