Dividend Stock Investing

[Deleted]

The Virginian

I have an equation set in EXCEL, which gives me the % numbers all I have to do is plug in the closing number.

I too am, well too preoccupied with other things to do the math long hand each day.

We track the % and + or - gains as part of a larger data set and model built around Behavioral Economics.

And I didn't say that this was a bad time to be looking for potential targets {Hell roughly 13% off the All Time High & High Volatility = conditions which could leave some really good stuff way over sold & undervalued}.

All I was saying, was that caution & care, need be the first two items on a persons "Let's see what I might find list".

What folks don't need to do at this point is recklessly plow ahead.

Recklessness is as bad if not worse than; folks just sticking their heads in the sand and saying "Nothing is happening" or alternately selling everything in a panic while saying "All is lost forever, F**** it".

[The Virginian]

DI - Not all the comments in my post were directed at you. Just the first sentence of my post. But I still say that now is a great time to be purchasing equities. Could they fall more - Yes, of course.  And you are correct, don't be reckless. If you want to buy only Blue Chips and think they are safe then please look at their valuations, many are still over valued. I personally have been buying in the beaten down sectors, Oil & Gas, Materials, Reits to name a couple. And yes some have very high yields. It's risky but I believe that it is worth that risk for me. I am just trying to remind everyone ( including myself) that in general buying in down markets is the best time to pick up bargains and that buying at the top of markets ( when the news is declaring new market highs) is in general the worst time. Not asking anyone to follow me just stating my beliefs. Everyone should have their own style and philosophy of investing that they feel comfortable with.

I will state that I have evolved from a Dividend Growth Investor to a Dividend Income Investor. The latter is more suited to those that are close to retirement or actually in retirement because it concentrates in Dividend Income rather than the value of their portfolio. 

[The Virginian]

I tried to paste a table here - but it didn't work. Wish there was some way of doing that.

[Ombud]

Jan 20, 2016 18:34:52 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

Market down about 15% from highs - some individual stocks off by 50% or more. Keep looking for bargains - you will be glad you did.

wondering if I'm too greedy on my 3 limits buys (BAC, F, JPM) & 1 limit sell (VGR)

Also looking into whether those are the right moves bc I will shift from dividend growth to dividend income & growth within next 3-5 yrs

that was yesterday's thought: this morning's edit: I was bummed out thinking my portfolio was doing really bad until I just looked up my dividends / interest for 2015. $12,945.16! whaat? My goal is was 1k per month and I got it? Not changing what I'm in, just my mental focus & upping goal to 1200 per month passive income. To that end, am I better off going with a dividend stock or bonds?

[The Virginian]

Hi Ombud -  Bonds do not compound - Dividend stocks do ! That will insure your income keeps increasing.

Personally - I would not sell VGR.   I am trying not to buy new stocks with lower yields than the ones that they are replacing in my IRA - That is if I sell one that has a 2% yield I look for one that pays more than the previous one. Look hard enough and you should have no problem with that.

[The Virginian]

Have the Saudis blinked ?

I think they have - right when Oil went below $30 they started saying they were willing to talk to Russia about cutting production. This signals to me that they don't want the price below $30 and they are willing to take action to ensure it. This could be the time to jump into oil stocks. Not a recommendation but just my thoughts.

[OldCoyote]

Would anyone of you buy cisco (csco) on the next big drop?

[tyfighter3]

I would be a looker at XOM if it drops back into the 60 range. JMO

[The Virginian]

I agree on XOM - A great Long term value.



Cisco :

Cisco: An Undervalued Dividend Gem

seekingalpha.com/article/3831806-cisco-undervalued-dividend-gem

I would put a $26 fair value  on CSCO it is now @ $23  and a target price of $30-32 so I would say yes - Go for it !

[The Virginian]

Well     Oil bounced back above $30 again.  It's starting to look like the bottom to me - I hope.

[Deleted]

Could possibly be; or it could also possibly be a head fake/false bravado. Worth paying attention to at any rate.

[The Virginian]

I still think everyone should be buying Oil stocks - If you wait too long the yields will go down and it will cost you in the long run. Better too early than too late - These 10% + yields will not be around forever.

[The Virginian]

COP Cuts its Dividend by 66% ~

But ................ I still say it is a great time to load up on the stock. It will be listing for better than 50% off its high. When else can you pick up a great company for so cheap ?

The dividend went from .74 to .25 per share per quarter.



www.conocophillips.com/newsroom/Pages/news-releases.aspx?docid=2783198

[Deleted]

Feb 4, 2016 7:23:55 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

I still think everyone should be buying Oil stocks - If you wait too long the yields will go down and it will cost you in the long run. Better too early than too late - These 10% + yields will not be around forever.

But, (and as mentioned in your other post): Dividends from Oil Companies are at risk; they are no longer sacrosanct .

There have been a bunch of Dividend cuts within the Energy space; though COP's cut caught attention as COP (even split of PSX) is regarded as a MAJOR.

There are indications that 50% to 70% of companies in the energy space could or will go bankrupt this year or early next year; as a result of Oil Prices; which are largely resultant from the games being played by OPEC (& the Saudi's specifically).

Extreme caution should be taken when considering any trades or investments in the Energy space at the present; this area really has become a game of Russian Roulette.

[The Virginian]

There are indications that 50% to 70% of companies in the energy space could or will go bankrupt this year or early next year;

I don't believe this - Maybe quite a few of the Frackers - But I have seen NoOne state that the Large players are in danger of anything but a few dividend cuts, and for me this just presents opportunities to pick up shares at great prices. Besides along with the drillers the refiners, logistics & Pipelines and services are getting hit as well, this is totally unjustified and just represents priced selling.

Long Oil , Gas, Coal stocks ! 

[The Virginian]

Oil back down below $ 28 today - Let's see if it quickly bounces back above $30 this week. If it does it means people are net buyers below $30 and there's a good chance it is the bottom since that is the point people are rushing to buy and it has happened several times.  Establishing the bottom is critical to an eventual recovery.

[The Virginian]

Coal sector gains on Supreme Court delay on proposed regulations

seekingalpha.com/news/3096406-coal-sector-gains-supreme-court-delay-proposed-regulations

[The Virginian]

Futures not looking very good again today - This could go on for some time. A 20 % correction from the highs would be about 14,500 on the DOW.  Hopefully will have some cash to look for bargains for any large dips. At this point I have loaded up on my out of favor sectors some with any more declines I am inclined to pick up some better quality stocks at lower prices.

[Ombud]

Looking at dividend aristocrats as I agree market is coming to a bottom around 14,400

[ModE98]

Ombud, we'll get to 14,400 in a week or two if this trend continues.  More dividend aristocrats bargains may be still in store. 
And think of the possible bargains in the mid-11,000s, or worse (if it comes to a real bear market ahead).
Who really knows what is in store for this wild market year, there are so many possible outcomes. 

[Ombud]

13,750 = 25%
11,000 = 40%


I am indeed lucky that I don't need the capital, would like the income though. Right now I'm also glad I had to sell 100k for kids in the last 12 months. That 100k stock is a lot less now

[Deleted]

ModE98 Ombud

Just something to mull. Our models indicate that the DJIA could sink to 10,990 (or slightly below).

If this were to happen, the DJIA would be at that point:

(-36.93%) from the closing of the DJIA on 12-31-2015

(-66.98%) from the DJIA ALL TIME HIGH set 5-19-2015 E.O.B.

While yes; at this point there are (and have been) far more negative closes YTD: No, there is not (and has not been yet) any real sign of Capitulation.

Mostly, the pain has been felt in the Energy Sector (majority), Financials (mid range), and TECH (growing from minority).

Industrials have taken a hit; though the hit has not been level across the breadth.

There are still areas (Sectors), where Gains are being seen; though to that end; that is & has been very Stock Specific.

Ergo; the seeming indication is that there are still a majority of "Weak Hands"; holding on to mounting losses, across a varied and wide range of Equity issues; in it seems the firm & staunch belief that the "party" will resume imminently

The "oh f***, it is the end of the world, we are doomed; things will never, ever recover"; hasn't yet besieged the markets..

Our models suggest that once such would (does) occur; the drop will be precipitous, swift and disorderly as folks seek to flee before all the Massive Unrealized Gains generated on their balance sheets from the last 8 years of "Candy Policy" from the FED; evaporate into thin air...  

As we have said before; the Economy at this point is saying one thing; the Markets are declaring the Economy wrong: Only one of them is right & all appearances lean toward the Markets being the one sending up the false flag..

[The Virginian]

Four oil producers agree to freeze output at Jan levels

www.cnbc.com/2016/02/16/oil-prices-spike-on-reports-of-saudi-russia-output-cut-talks.html

This has very little meaning in reality but I think we will see oil prices stabilize - Again take note that every time the price of oil drops below $30 - They jump in and start making positive comments to boost the price. I think the OPEC countries can't survive either with prices below that. For this reason I still think this is the bottom.

[The Virginian]

PEPSICO Raises Dividend to $3.01 per share or $.7525 per share per qtr.

This represents an increase of 7%
and 44 years of consecutive Dividend raises !

Go PEP !

[The Virginian]

Learning that Buffet and Soros have been buying KMI sure is a boost to my confidence in my constant buying of Oil related stocks during this downturn. I always had confidence I was doing the right thing for the long term but being a "Lone Wolf" always
gives room to doubt yourself. Of course I believe we still have a ways to go before recovery but I feel more confident than ever. It is still not too late to get in for those that have been more prudent.

[ModE98]

Added a few more HCAP and HRZN shares to port.  I like 13+% dividends.

3:45 EST:  Found just enough $ to pick up another 100 shares HRZN before today's close.  Now hope market stays in the green for awhile....

[The Virginian]

Walmart Increases Dividend.
The dividend went from $1.96 annual to $2.00 annual.(.50 cents per share per quarter)

I don't own Walmart because I don't like retail in general but I know many of you do.

This represents a 2% increase over last year

[The Virginian]

Coca Cola raises Dividend !

KO raised its dividend to .35 cents per share quarterly from .33 per share per quarter.
The new dividend is $1.40 per share on an annual basis which represents an increase of 6.1%.

Go Coke ( This one I do own!)

[ModE98]

VA.... those dividends keep adding up. 
The problem, so have taxes increased this year.  Investors keep getting "robbed" to cover more government socialist programs.  And worse, there's chaos afoot in upcoming elections.  We will see, after the elections, if we get to keep a few pennies from our investments.

[Deleted]

Feb 18, 2016 15:09:40 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

VA.... those dividends keep adding up. 
The problem, so have taxes increased this year.  Investors keep getting "robbed" to cover more government socialist programs.  And worse, there's chaos afoot in upcoming elections.  We will see, after the elections, if we get to keep a few pennies from our investments.

What really sucks for me is that it is coming just as I am starting to get substantial taxable holdings, I feel like the dance at the Waldorf Estoria is over and I am stuck at the after party at Motel 6.