How goes your recovery!! by Louie von WOOF

[bimetalaupt]

The Federal Reserve is good at patting itself on the back.. Did they save the ECU...Yes.. Did they save Citigroup..Yes.. Did they save AIG...Yes.. But did they save Main Street USA???



Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you this morning to look back on the tremendous events impacting the economy over the past several years, and to assess the outlook for the economy going forward. Let me note that the views that I will discuss with you are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

On September 20, 2010, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determined that the "Great Recession" officially ended in June 2009. The Great Recession did not earn its moniker due to its length. At 18 months, the length of the Great Recession was only slightly longer than the average of 17.5 months for the 33 recessions tracked by the NBER since 1857. In fact, the longest recession was 65 months and lasted from October 1873 to March 1879.

The Great Recession distinguished itself from earlier recessions in terms of its severity rather than its length. There was a decline in real output relative to trend of $1.1 trillion or 8 percent (Chart 1). This contraction brought the level of real output back to its level in 2006. In most recessions, consumption growth slows but remains positive. In this recession, there was an actual decline in consumption rather than just a slowdown (Chart 2). When households need to cut back on their consumption, they typically do so first with durable goods—for example, by delaying the decision to replace a car or to trade up to a nicer house. It is no surprise then that auto sales dropped significantly (Chart 3). Housing starts had been declining since late 2005, and the decline continued during the recession (Chart 4). Producers reacted quickly to the sharp decline in consumer demand, but inventories still rose sharply relative to sales (Chart 5).

In order to realign production to the declining level of demand, firms quickly cut their staffing levels, which resulted in a rapid rise in unemployment across all age groups (Chart 6). From the peak in December 2007 to the end of the recession, private non-farm payroll employment declined by 7.3 million jobs—bringing employment below its level in January 2000 (Chart 7). The severity of the Great Recession is very apparent when you realize that an entire decade's worth of job growth was lost.

Household wealth declined sharply as well during the Great Recession due to losses both in equity and real-estate wealth. The household saving rate increased in reaction to this negative shock to household wealth (Chart 8). Several factors were likely behind the higher saving rate. First, as already noted, households likely increased their saving rate to begin to rebuild their wealth. Second, given the deterioration in the labor market, households would also have a strong "precautionary demand" for saving to help buffer their consumption in the event of a job loss. Finally, homeowners might react to falling house prices by increasing their saving rate in order to rebuild the capacity to make a down payment on a future trade-up house. In more extreme cases where house price declines have put owners in a negative equity position where the value of the house is now less than the balance on the mortgage, homeowners may increase their saving rate to have the capacity to pay off their mortgage to avoid a costly foreclosure.

At the same time that the real economy was contracting there was an on-going crisis in financial markets. The balance sheets of banks and securities firms were under severe strain and liquidity was drying up. A good barometer for problems in the financial sector is the price for credit default swap (CDS) contracts for financial firms (Chart 9). These CDS prices started to rise in 2007 as news of losses for subprime mortgages began to hit markets. There was a jump in CDS prices in March 2008 when Bear Sterns was taken over by JPMorgan Chase. For a brief period over the summer of 2008, CDS prices retreated. This was more evident for securities firms and may reflect the opening of the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) that allowed primary dealers to obtain liquidity from the Federal Reserve on a collateralized basis. Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, these CDS prices increased dramatically.

In response to the deterioration in the economy as well as to mounting loan losses, banks tightened their lending standards and credit spreads increased. This can be seen using data from the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (Chart 10). Values above zero represent tightening of standards, widening of spreads and weaker loan demand. All three were taking place as the economy entered the recession. A consequence was a sharp contraction of lending activity (Chart 11). To the extent that the decline in lending was not completely due to lower loan demand, then this credit contraction exacerbated the decline in real activity—creating what is called an adverse feedback loop between the financial and real sectors of the economy.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reacted aggressively in response to the recession and financial crisis. The FOMC quickly lowered its policy rate—called the federal funds rate—to essentially zero (Chart 12). The aggressive pace for lowering the fed funds rate reflected lessons learned from Japan's earlier experience dealing with a housing market boom and bust. At the same time, the FOMC increased its provision of liquidity to the financial system. Initially, liquidity was added through the traditional discount window, and later through a wide range of new liquidity facilities that were developed. Up until the Lehman bankruptcy, the FOMC provided this liquidity without expanding the size of its balance sheet (Chart 13). As the crisis intensified following the Lehman bankruptcy, the FOMC significantly escalated its support for the economy. The FOMC could not provide additional support to the economy in the traditional manner by reducing the fed funds rate since the policy rate was already at zero. Instead, the FOMC initiated the Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program. The objective was to ease financial market conditions to provide more support to the economy. Central bank purchases of assets raise the price and therefore lower the yield on these assets. These purchases crowd out some investors who shift their purchases to other assets, which lowers the yields on these assets, as well. In this way, financial market conditions are eased more generally. A consequence of the LSAP program was a rapid expansion of the central bank's balance sheet.

The combined monetary and fiscal support for the economy helped to arrest the decline in economic activity. As final sales began to stabilize, firms were able to manage down their inventories. The aggregate inventory-to-sales ratio rapidly declined to its pre-recession level (Chart 14). With their excess inventory worked off, firms needed to meet demand by increasing production. Aggregate industrial production rebounded—especially for durable goods (Chart 15). Growth was also improving abroad, which increased the demand for our exports (Chart 16). In this chart, each business cycle is contrasted with real exports normalized to a value of one at the business cycle peak, which is dated as time zero on the chart. The chart shows the relative path of real exports during the contraction and recovery for each cycle. The recovery in exports for this cycle was quicker than for the prior recession in 2001. Firms reacted to the significant challenges presented by the recession by focusing on cost cutting and improved efficiencies. These efforts led to a rise in measured labor productivity (Chart 17). With labor compensation growth declining due to the weakness in the labor market, the higher labor productivity resulted in sharp declines in the costs of producing goods—unit labor costs. The decline in unit labor costs helped firms to restore their profitability.

As demand conditions improved, firms on net began to increase their employment and hours worked by their staff (Chart 18). It is important to note that improvement in the demand for workers will not necessarily lead to a steady decline in the aggregate unemployment rate. During the recession, many unemployed workers withdrew from the labor force and stopped actively looking for employment. This can be seen by the decline in the labor force participation rate (Chart 19). While there are around 15 million unemployed workers, there are also around 9 million workers who are working part time for economic reasons (as opposed to their own choice), and around 1.3 million "discouraged" workers who want a job but who are not currently actively looking for work—and therefore are not counted as unemployed. As firms decide to increase their total hours, some of this additional labor demand will take the form of firms restoring part-time workers to full-time status—an action that does not reduce the unemployment rate. In addition, as conditions begin to improve in the labor market, discouraged workers may decide to reenter the labor force and to renew their search for a job. This reentry pushes up the measured unemployment rate until these reentrants find new employment.

As the recession ended, consumption growth returned to positive, supported by improvement in disposable income growth and a leveling off of the household saving rate (Chart 20). Household wealth began to recover as equity markets improved and the deterioration in house prices abated, supported in part by demand created by the housing tax credit programs (Chart 21). As conditions in financial markets improved, banks ceased tightening their lending standards (Chart 22). Lending activity stopped contracting, and credit became more readily available for large firms that had access to the credit markets (Chart 23).

Midway through 2010, however, questions started to arise as to whether the economy was entering a "soft-patch" or heading toward a "double-dip" recession. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth had slowed from 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, to 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and to only 1.7 percent in the second quarter. Soft patches are common in expansions, but are difficult to distinguish from a more serious deterioration in an expansion. Examples of soft patches include the expansions of 1976 and 2002 (Chart 24).

Foreign risks also appeared on the radar screen with growing concerns about debt sustainability in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. This can be seen in the sharp rise in the sovereign risk spreads for these countries (Chart 25). At the same time, core consumer price index (CPI) inflation, which is used as an indicator of where overall inflation is heading, was low and trending downward (Chart 26).

Given the FOMC's dual mandate to promote price stability and maximum sustainable growth, the risk of a double-dip recession in 2011 was a concern. In more normal times, the FOMC could respond to this risk by deciding to reduce the fed funds rate. However, with the fed funds rate essentially at zero, other options had to be considered. At their November meeting, the FOMC decided to restart its large-scale asset purchases by announcing an intention to purchase an additional $600 billion in Treasury securities. Again, as with its earlier asset purchase program, the intent was to improve financial market conditions and thereby reduce the risk of the economy stalling. Subsequent to the FOMC's decision, a compromise was reached on extending the Bush tax rates in conjunction with additional fiscal stimulus measures for 2011. The flow of economic data as 2010 came to a close on balance indicated that the economy was in fact regaining its lost momentum. Economists began to mark up their forecasts for 2011 economic growth.

This recent improvement in the economic outlook is welcomed news. We should keep in mind, though, that there is considerable uncertainty associated with every economic forecast. There are both upside and downside risks that could cause actual economic growth this year to deviate from the consensus forecast. One important downside risk to the outlook is associated with housing markets. Following the end of the homebuyer tax credits, there was a sharp drop-off in home sales. In addition, the firming of house prices noted earlier has given way to renewed house price declines in many markets (Chart 27). There still remains a significant excess supply of housing that will exert downward pressure on house prices and new construction (Chart 28). Given the very low level of new home construction, the primary driver of this excess supply of housing is the on-going foreclosure process. The foreclosure pipeline continues to grow (Chart 29). How far along are we at resolving the foreclosure problem? Total completed foreclosures including short sales and deeds-in-lieu from the beginning of 2008 until the end of the third quarter of 2010 represent around 58 percent of all foreclosure starts over that same period. In addition, in each quarter the pace of foreclosure starts has exceeded the pace of completed foreclosures. At best, then, we are only halfway through the resolution process.

To conclude where I began, the name "Great Recession" is also appropriate in that it reminds us not only of the severity of what took place, but also of the travesty that was avoided—that is, the second Great Depression. This was only possible with the aggressive monetary and fiscal policy actions that were undertaken both domestically and abroad. Much was learned in the process about how to effectively deal with a financial crisis, and much remains to be learned about how to prevent them from recurring in the future.
»

Is this a recession or something larger and not yet understood?
Submitted by Old and Gray on Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:08.

Mr. Tracy, and Mr. Dudley are joined to a group of economists and social commentators who are noticing that something odd is going on in our world but cannot quite bring it into clear focus.

In process on my docket, soon to be completed, is an attempt to present evidence that we are not in a "normal" recession, but are involved in a swing era which will transform us from what might be considered the old, or standard, ways of conducting commerce to a completely new outlook which will puzzle us for decades and call for adjustments similar to the migrations from agrciulture to invasions of manufacturing centers, or the change from cottage industries to production lines, but this has as yet not been described fully or grasped even by those on the cutting edge.

For a century or so we've had an unemployment target somewhere in the area of 4 to 6% which supposedly enumerated optimum workforce size. This of course was determined by "assessing" or "analyzing" economic data. Some of us saw something different. There seemed to be a conclusion first followed by presentation of evidence assembled for bolstering the conclusion. This is not a clear cut scientific process. The process did provide us with a number which we hoped indicated the real and therefore tolerable rate of unemployment. Those numbers were based on reporting more than true theoretical or scientific evaluation, something along the lines of finding out what the mid-point was by counting noses first and then developing math equations to substantiate the results. It was this sequence that allowed Keynes to capitalize on the confusion by tying employment to vague conjecture, assigning responsibility to government and debt and creating more confusion and less understanding of the basic and very real issues which create unemployment. During that period we experienced events that are still generating studies that may or may not hit the spot. Are we spending more time than needed to understand a stand-off between those forces seeking to move ahead and those who would rather hold onto the past?

Among those aware of the dangers in the theoretical process which comes close to an orthodoxy (perhaps misled?) is Edmund Phelps, another Nobel Laureate (2006) associated with Columbia University. Dr. Phelps is a busy man and it seems he can only spare the time for this subject once every forty years. He had two publications four decades ago, a paper in Economica, August, 1967, "Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time", and a book, "Inflation policy and unemployment theory: the cost-benefit approach to monetary planning", 1972. He emerged again around March of 2008 for some further refinement of his perceptive thoughts. All three works are worth the attention if unemployment and monetary policy is of concern. I know it is to Main Street.

Early summer, 2008 he addressed a conference in a recurring series sponsored by BIS, its principal theme being "Monetary policy challenges in the decade ahead", but since most Central Banks consider or are instructed that their mandate is price stability and monetary policy that promotes employment to the fullest practical extent, Dr. Phelps rightfully concluded that the attainable level of employment should be determined before we set out to support any level.

He recognized a slowdown in employment over the three years preceding the 2008 conference. Fluctuations since 1990, which his interest caused him to follow, were used to put the 2008 developments in perspective. He also isolated two sectors for the study, separating housing from business in general. Without repeating all of his thought process, he attempted to point out there was a point where workers accumulated wealth at a increasing rate that eventually (to rephrase Dr. Phelps) priced themselves out of the normal market. He does not say so, but the assumption on my part is that the industry would then find itself looking for some means of making housing more attractive to prospects than normal, thus stimulating and superceding the normal market. In this way, we found ourselves in the rose garden and the presidential announcement that the government was four square behind the idea of helping Americans enjoy the comfort of their own home, which then led banks and mortgage lenders into risky proposition of swearing off any concern for risk, casting mortgages out as if they were dandelion seeds and backing up their own exposure with collateralized debt obligations and the other deadly papers, such as the RMBSs. At that point it was monetary policy be damned, there's gold in those hills! All of which was patently artificial!

Phelps maintains that there was misperception of the "real" level of unemployment and one is falsely led to conclude that the orthodoxy of 4% to 6% acceptable unemployment levels would support keeping the workers on staff. Sadly, that false floor may not have been the case.

In the long winding path of the Tsunami thread, it was pointedly stated several times that we were - and still are - in a transitional state. That is an ever-strengthening belief on my part. Investors are moving over to another phase of commerce, something more in tune with technology and artificial money which will become the principal concern of "money" in all its meanings and have a direct effect on all our lives - Main Street, Wall Street and every one in between. Derivatives merely brought into focus the opening of the garden gate (or, Pandora's box?). Beyond that will be something similar to what confronted the Luddites: "What do we do about jobs now?"

We have developments in world trade which still haven't reached their full potential. Food, clothing, raw and processed materials come into our market from every part of the globe. Emerging countries (it was pointed out in the tsunami) which once depended on a single dominant local product, are finding themselves moving into processes and ventures which would have been unthinkable forty or fifty years ago and are becoming global supply centers for what would have been completely foreign to their culture. Now, they emerge and see the light for the first time. Competition is entering a new phase with new players and Adam Smith's observation of advanced countries being over-priced and unprofitable and emerging countries ascending into the spotlight with corresponding alterations to pay scales and employment levels is being reaffirmed.

In light of this - if I am not misled by what I see and it is indeed on the way to actualization - the old mandates for monetary policy, the FOMC's mandates, the idea that simplified interest rate/currency quantity adjustments will control the economy is headed for the waste bin or at least the "hold" basket. Perhaps not in one move, but it will definitely be of less importance in the very near future. That's why Bernanke's leadership of the Fed is off target and not likely to serve the nation's best interests, for one thing. We're struggling now in the web of deception of concepts which may be in their last throes. Certainly, we'll need to regulate quantity of money and interest rates if we're to attract the attention from the world's market places which we need to survive, but that is being relegated to a position of secondary importance - if it ever was of primary importance.

Yes, the world is changing!!

Bi Metal Au Pt

[bimetalaupt]

Things are also looking up in the Texas Wine Industry!! World Class Merlot 181 could bring as high as $25.00 for the 2011 vintage. Great wine of this centry!!

August 2011: There may be a shortage of 2011 Texas wine – but it could end up being a great vintage.

Early numbers indicate 2011 Texas wine grape tonnage could be down as much as 50 - 70%, due to this year’s extended record high temperatures and drought.

The unrelenting weather has redefined the meaning of agriculture stress, causing: vine loss, fast-ripening fruit, petite grapes, less grape production, and early harvests.

But stressed grapevines often produce exceptional fruit. Smaller berries and fewer clusters can translate into concentrated, incredibly rich and complex flavors. Regional vintners – while lamenting this year’s growing challenges - sound hopeful and enthusiastic.

This crop of Texas grapes could end up yielding some of the most flavorful wines in years. The 2011 grapes that survived the Great Bake have an exceptionally high skin to flesh ratio; much of wine’s flavor comes from grape skins. The antioxidant Resveratrol, a “healthy” ingredient in wine, also originates in grape skins.

by Louie von WOOF..Staff Photo of the Grand Champion!!

[jarhead1976]

Bruce , Dogs are great company . Respects jarhead.

[bimetalaupt]

Phase Delay!!! and why M2 has not yet driven the industrial complex..

As Flow5 and I have talked about in the old Fed-Watch the delay of money growth to true change in the Money Translation flow (Mt.) is about nine months... It has now been over two years and we still have a stunt in the Mt. Why the delay after the huge problem of the banking system producing the now famous amplification action on the financial assets.


After the devaluation of the assets in the banks worldwide many firms had to sell assets off for little to nothing just to raise cash for operation.. to them banks are not relevant. Now the firms are hoarding cash to play it safe rather then risk the wrath of regulation.

Steve Wynn said it best.. I voted for him and He has attacked the Business. Now he want jobs.. I sure would too,, That is Steve Jobs the man that has been the most important agent of change in the last 100 years.

So it comes to this.. America was know for being Revolutionary for making things in mass. We have not lowered the output but increase our productivity. Like with gold prices at $1,800 how many tractors will the new gold mines buy and how large will the milling plant and steel ball crushing mills become? Productivity will improve our living standards..The average cost to mine one ounce and process it to 99.999% pure is only $600.

We are now seeing real growth in the real economy of America not some financial smoke and mirrors over priced land sales with over priced houses that are too big for the average reduced family.. This is a under stated multiply recovery backed with productive production.

from our models the equity risk premium is now about 6.5%...The T-note 10 year is about 2.3% or investing will yield about 8.8% over the next 50 years...
Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

[bimetalaupt]

How many self-unemployed farmers do we have.. Are they all males? "Majick Musssseruooms" and rope farms?? Now we can also grow our own tea..Make mine with ACIA organic with orange peals.. Did I say how many new farmers we see at the Farmers market!! Mesquite roots and stems anyone.. For the wood with have chairs.

A smaller share of men have jobs today than at any time since World War II

As President Barack Obama puts together a new jobs plan to be revealed shortly after Labor Day, he is up against a powerful force, long in the making, that has gone virtually unnoticed in the debate over how to put people back to work: Employers are increasingly giving up on the American man.
If that sounds bleak, it's because it is. The portion of men who work and their median wages have been eroding since the early 1970s. For decades the impact of this fact was softened in many families by the increasing number of women who went to work and took up the slack. More recently, the housing bubble helped to mask it by boosting the male-dominated construction trades, which employed millions. When real estate ultimately crashed, so did the prospects for many men. The portion of men holding a job—any job, full- or part-time—fell to 63.5 percent in July—hovering stubbornly near the low point of 63.3 percent it reached in December 2009. These are the lowest numbers in statistics going back to 1948. Among the critical category of prime working-age men between 25 and 54, only 81.2 percent held jobs, a barely noticeable improvement from its low point last year—and still well below the depths of the 1982-83 recession, when employment among prime-age men never dropped below 85 percent. To put those numbers in perspective, consider that in 1969, 95 percent of men in their prime working years had a job.

Men who do have jobs are getting paid less. After accounting for inflation, median wages for men between 30 and 50 dropped 27 percent—to $33,000 a year— from 1969 to 2009, according to an analysis by Michael Greenstone, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor who was chief economist for Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. "That takes men and puts them back at their earnings capacity of the 1950s," Greenstone says. "That has staggering implications."

What is going on here? For one thing, women, who have made up a majority of college students for three decades and now account for 57 percent, are adapting better to a data-driven economy that values education and collaborative skills more than muscle. That isn't to say women have yet eclipsed men in the workplace. They continue to earn about 16 percent less than men and struggle against gender discrimination and career interruptions as they disproportionately take time away from the job to raise children. And both men and women have confronted job losses in the weak economy. In July, 68.9 percent of women aged 25-54 had jobs, vs. 72.8 percent in January 2008. (In 1969, however, fewer than half did.) After a long decline in men's work opportunities, the recession worsened things with a sharp drop in male employment. Unemployed men are now more likely than women to be among the long-term jobless.

[Click here to find an online degree program]

The economic downturn exacerbated forces that have long been undermining men in the workplace, says Lawrence Katz, a Harvard professor of labor economics. Corporations have cut costs by moving manufacturing jobs, routine computer programming, and even simple legal work out of the country. The production jobs that remain are increasingly mechanized and demand higher skills. Technology and efforts to reduce the number of layers within corporations are leaving fewer middle-management jobs.

The impact has been greatest on moderately skilled men, especially those without a college education, though even men with bachelor's degrees from less selective schools are beginning to see their position erode. "There's really been this polarization in the middle," Katz says, as men at the top of the education and income scale see their earnings rise while those in the middle gravitate downward.

For generations, American workers kept up with technological change by achieving higher levels of education than their parents. High school education became the norm as the country progressed from an agrarian society to an industrial one. After World War II, increasing numbers of Americans went to college as the economy became more complex. But for reasons not fully understood, college graduation rates essentially stopped growing for men in the late 1970s, shortly after the Vietnam War ended, perhaps in part because draft deferments were no longer an inducement. Women, on the other hand, continued to pursue college degrees in greater numbers and have been more responsive to the changing economy in other ways, taking many of the nursing and technician positions in the expanding health-care industry and making greater headway in service jobs.

While unemployment is an ordeal for anyone, it still appears to be more traumatic for men. Men without jobs are more likely to commit crimes and go to prison. They are less likely to wed, more likely to divorce, and more likely to father a child out of wedlock. Ironically, unemployed men tend to do even less housework than men with jobs and often retreat from family life, says W. Bradford Wilcox, director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia.

The long-term fix is simple to spell out and tough to achieve: getting more men to attend college and improving the skills of those who don't. Reducing financial barriers to higher education would be a start. But there isn't much political appetite for spending the billions it would take to make that happen. Even once-sacred Pell Grants are on the block as Washington looks for budget cuts. A strapped public education system that leaves many young men unprepared for the workplace, let alone college, doesn't help. It's noteworthy but not especially comforting to know that this is not just an American problem. The same gender differences in college attendance and employment are emerging in rich societies around the world.

Grappling with these intractable problems won't likely be Obama's top priority. He is under pressure to do something that will be felt now, not a generation from now. The longer people who are currently unemployed remain out of work, the more their skills will atrophy and the greater the risk of a cohort of men—and women—who become permanently detached from the workplace. Anything that raises employment overall would help. Obama is expected to propose tax incentives for employers to hire workers, a reduction in payroll taxes employers pay, and spending on infrastructure. Money for labor-intensive projects, such as retrofitting buildings for energy conservation or refurbishing aging schools, would be especially effective in putting men back to work in construction—though Washington is likely in no mood to pay for that either.

Other ideas that economists have proposed are geared toward keeping men with diminished opportunities from drifting out of the workforce altogether. They include reducing unemployment-benefits extensions for those who have been out of work for a year or more—to give those who are getting by on an unemployment check a stronger incentive to take a job, even if it's not the most desirable one. Others have proposed modifying the Social Security disability insurance system so that it is no longer an all-or-nothing proposition and instead subsidizes employers for hiring workers with partial disabilities. Since 1970, the fraction of 25- to 60-year-old men on disability has more than doubled, from 2.4 percent to 5 percent. Once they begin receiving disability payments, few return to work.

If there is any upside to recessions, it's that they tend to expose deep problems that go ignored or at least overlooked in better times. The short-term fixes the President proposes may provide much needed relief for the millions of people looking for a job. The danger is that the fixes will work just well enough to let us pretend—for a while longer—that the real problem is no longer there.
The best thing you can say is that at the bottom quintile (1/5th) the USA SS system pays the best!! SEE chart!!
Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 26, 2011 19:29:47 GMT -5 @toughtimes said:

Texas Wine? Fie, come visit New York where we have REAL wine. You may choose from the upstate or Long Island growing regions. We laugh at Texas.

Toughtimes,
I have and have friends in the industry at Cornell University. That is where I got my certified Regent wood for the organic plot in the North Texas certified wine area. We used to own a potato farm on Long Island. We also had a summer house on the sound ( Stony Brook New York). I have cousins in France that do the same, now I am used to it.

My right bank wine has always done better in taste test then expected.. Esp my 95 % Merlot Cab Frank 5% concentrated taste with extra stress wine...

Do you like the Cataba from the Taylor Family( Bully Hill)? Now wine-making can reduce the unemployed overnight with just thinning of vines grape load and hand working the grapes for superior wines.This year nature did the thinning for us. . Great year but we do not have enough Merlot so the price I have heard of this year for the best French Clones ( like 181) is upper-wards of $3,000/ ton. Must be from Texas to qualify for the wineries to be called Texas Certified ... Like my St. Peters of Texas... I did show a 1973 .. 100% La Noir at a wine taste at Sotherby's in the city. Got a lot of 99 from the experts..
. Cost of wine production is a very small part of the French Wine Price.

Just a thought,
Bi metal Au Pt

for you
for me

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The thing is that these other centers have been centers of commerce and trade. The Silk Road over 2000 yrs ago connected the known world, as global trade does now. What changed that? “Tribes” mingling.. There was no understanding among different cultures.

Adam Smith was able to predict the rise of the third world when advanced nations were prosperous because it has happened time and time again in history. The difference is why he knew it would work this time, and why I believe we are moving towards free enterprise on a global scale; good values.

The ideas are freedom and equality. They have gone universal, and gen XY is the first generation to have grown up fully influence by multiculturalism, and we are now having kids. We now have global trade and understanding among the “tribes”, and as O&G points out, we are nowhere near the true potential of global trade. This is why you’re seeing real growth, in the real economy, one that is fueled by CASH, fiat, whatever! The M2 is flowing.

Lets see what happens if the FED decides to drop the deposit rates and do what Ben B says.. NOTHING, and let the US economy heal itself! Nice work Ben! Talk about jobs? How about Obama getting serious when 100 CEOs that have trillions to spend, say its time to let us know what we can do, or else, no more money for you! Let see what trillions will do in the mainstream economy to go with the sub economy!


Now, some BC greenwine.. and for me .. K4u

[smackdown]

Texas has a good climate for tumbleweeds. We've gone over this before. It has a lack of resources, has tapped them for stupid stuff like growing grape vines in a desert environment and is now insisting that it's surrounding states provide it with water resources. There are places in Texas where the soil is so dry that it has no consistency at all-- just like the spent top soil picked up across the Plains states that created the Dust Bowl of the 1930's. Farm and Ranch owners in Texas report the worst conditions in decades. A significant number have failed.

The best we can do with Texas is to Mess with it. Break it up into three states and relocate all the businesses that moved there for it's Homestead Act protection and recover the nation. A reminder that- oner of the main reasons Texans paid to get Dubya elected was to control the outcome of the then modest recession ahead, so they would come out on top. Doing so, destroyed the nation's economy and exacerbated the global crisis.

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 27, 2011 4:19:51 GMT -5 @toughtimes said:

I was unaware that Texas had a good climate for wine grapes. Not a big fan of Merlot, but how about 100% Cabernet Frank? That would go well with a good piece of steak. Now steak, that is something that they know about in Texas.

So far as wine, I like anything from Brotherhood Wineries in upstate. Several of the wineries in Long Island, including the one run by the Entemann family of bakery fame are just peachy. The vintages are very inconsistent out there though, so you just have to ask for a recommendation from the vintners.

Oak and tannin are not my thing, otherwise I am pretty open to a wide variety of reds, whites and roses.

TT,
Well, the truth is the 1986 Cab Franc 100% I blended into the 2008 Merlot 181 was truly amazing.. I did not share it but keep enough to blend with Merlot 181 to make six 750 ml. The 5% is the max you can blend and still claim vintage in the competitive world. You do your wine making with single lots like my two lots of Merlot are both 181 we still make them independent.

Take PN 777.. It makes all three red,white and roses.. You blend the Rose from the red and white.. Sometimes you get a light rose from the press and that is called the " Eye of the Partridge ".. It is all about money .. Adams turned the French Wine groups on it head when He bought several old wine estates and rebuilt them from the bottom up. he makes the "Bel Air" estate Red with 80 % Top three Merlots and 20% Top Cab Franc.. The 2005 earned him a 98 from Robert Parker and I bought a bottle for $35 here in Abilene.. Not bad price for a wine with the same rating as La Tour. The cost to make the wine is a small part of the cost of the huge wine estates in France.. Profit margins are huge as is the price of the land.

Have you tried a 100% Regent!!

Grape Expectations..

Bruce

K4U ... for the

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 27, 2011 2:25:10 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The thing is that these other centers have been centers of commerce and trade. The Silk Road over 2000 yrs ago connected the known world, as global trade does now. What changed that? “Tribes” mingling.. There was no understanding among different cultures.

Adam Smith was able to predict the rise of the third world when advanced nations were prosperous because it has happened time and time again in history. The difference is why he knew it would work this time, and why I believe we are moving towards free enterprise on a global scale; good values.

The ideas are freedom and equality. They have gone universal, and gen XY is the first generation to have grown up fully influence by multiculturalism, and we are now having kids. We now have global trade and understanding among the “tribes”, and as O&G points out, we are nowhere near the true potential of global trade. This is why you’re seeing real growth, in the real economy, one that is fueled by CASH, fiat, whatever! The M2 is flowing.

Lets see what happens if the FED decides to drop the deposit rates and do what Ben B says.. NOTHING, and let the US economy heal itself! Nice work Ben! Talk about jobs? How about Obama getting serious when 100 CEOs that have trillions to spend, say its time to let us know what we can do, or else, no more money for you! Let see what trillions will do in the mainstream economy to go with the sub economy!


Now, some BC greenwine.. and for me .. K4u

A++,
Your membership in triple Nines .is showing!! .. Drop the Deposit rate then bank may start lending again.. You know what they say in West Texas.. If you do not like the New York banksters, start your own bank.. many have!! Also we have the Texas Farming Credit Bank Central banks that provides monies to the Local Farm Credit Bureau and are lending.

Global trade was what Made the Jewish population in Europe do well with the needs of banking and trade. The capital of The nation on the Heart of the Trail is Tuesday(?).. The day of the largest trade fair ( At the time) in the world.. That is a long supply line from China( the worlds largest economy at the time) to the UN-unifed German /Russian markets...

Now we are talking V2 is on the rise.. is getting excited....The problem has been that the growth has been stealth because the growth has been in the 2% Farm area vs the decline in the larger housing.

Just as thought.. Green wine??? How about Itialian orange...

Bruce
a round of K for all... with & for me!!

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 27, 2011 7:51:52 GMT -5 @toughtimes said:

Sigh, a big change from my Italian neighbors who put a few oak barrels in the garage and whipped up a few glasses from their own grapes, grown on the fence. I still love home-made wine. Few sulfides.

TT,


From the original cutting from Dr. Olmo at UCD I got 10 Barbara PFM Clone #1. I used them to make a Sweet Red that is very much a Tuscan Wine.. My Italian-American friend got it all.. You know the FBI.. Very low in oak as I recall and it is now Sweet Redis a real staple of the Lubbock Wine Group as with the Oldest Winery in Texas at Del Rio.. It is owned by an old Italian family. Tommy uses the LeNoir Grape ( AKA Black Spanish).. Great Wine with pasta!!
Most of the gender I know like a bit sweeter and softer wine.. Like my 181 merlot .. we make Merlot will low oak levels as you can always add oak in the End with blending of high oak additions like the Cab. Franc I made..Most Cab Franc I have is made with 100% new French oak. It takes about 18 month more aging then Cab. Sauvignon. Cab. Franc is a bigger Wine in the end. Great years are fantastic.

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt
PS: My late wife used to show all our friend my collection of about 10,000 marbles at parties..
Do you know what I used them for???

[jarhead1976]

Morning Bruce, to answer your question , Main Street didn't see any relief ( loans ) from the banks. Buisness has been lost while lining the pockets of th power that be. Not much of a wine drinker , but do enjoy a bottle of Argintine Malbec once in a while.

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 27, 2011 7:17:42 GMT -5 @smackdown said:

Texas has a good climate for tumbleweeds. We've gone over this before. It has a lack of resources, has tapped them for stupid stuff like growing grape vines in a desert environment and is now insisting that it's surrounding states provide it with water resources. There are places in Texas where the soil is so dry that it has no consistency at all-- just like the spent top soil picked up across the Plains states that created the Dust Bowl of the 1930's. Farm and Ranch owners in Texas report the worst conditions in decades. A significant number have failed.

The best we can do with Texas is to Mess with it. Break it up into three states and relocate all the businesses that moved there for it's Homestead Act protection and recover the nation. A reminder that- oner of the main reasons Texans paid to get Dubya elected was to control the outcome of the then modest recession ahead, so they would come out on top. Doing so, destroyed the nation's economy and exacerbated the global crisis.

V.L.
With a good red wine " Home made Merlot Vinegar/Olive oil" Young Tumble Weed makes a great salad. Too bad the drought killed all the Tumble weeds in West Texas. The land I used to build my vineyard in 1973-1974 had never been broken and we planted Buffalo grass in a no till system. I used 16 foot rows and 10 to 12 foot spacings with drip irrigation from Israel. I sold the first vineyard for 250% of my cost in 1990 and 1992.

George and Laura used to make our X-Mass party every year because we had better parties then my brother.. We also had a wine party with real good cheese.. So do you wants some cheese with your

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt
Open range land with high Ca.. Great Root stock.. It takes two plants to make a grape vine.

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 27, 2011 9:13:14 GMT -5 @toughtimes said:

I'm going to guess you showed them to friends to prove you didn't lose your marbles. That's what I would do.

T.T.,
I said my late wife showed her friend my collection of glass marbles..well part of the collection.. most were in the wine bottles in the wine cellar...I learned the trick in Dijon , Burgundy France years ago.

I asked our Café Taste host, Jeremy Day , if he had any other suggestions to preserve an open bottle of wine. He came up with the remarkably sensible suggestion of putting sterilized marbles into the bottle and then recorking. What a clever idea!

The marbles fill up the empty bottle, move the wine to the top and push all the air out before resealing. The idea sounds brilliant. This technique will require some practical way of dish-washing the glass marbles between each such use. I found a way to safely wash wine glasses in the dishwasher. I’m sure I’ll figure out a good way to wash marbles if the idea works.Another suggestion he had was to place opened, recorked bottles in the fridge. Chilled wine oxidizes more slowly than a bottle of wine at room temperature.

How is that for Positive energy!! Celia used this trick in her Romantic novel " Drake" as he was the hero that had all the answers until he found out he had not heard all the questions.. From a woman , No less.
Bi Metal Au Pt

[Opti]

Men who do have jobs are getting paid less. After accounting for inflation, median wages for men between 30 and 50 dropped 27 percent—to $33,000 a year— from 1969 to 2009, according to an analysis by Michael Greenstone, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor who was chief economist for Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.

My guess is the drop in earning power for women is just as bad if not worse. I've got a FT temp job for $11/hr which will end in just over two months. At my layoff in 2009 I was finally up to $22/hr. which is less than half of my annual salary as a UNIX admin in 2003.

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 27, 2011 9:31:23 GMT -5 @toughtimes said:

It sure does. European grapes don't do well with our native Phylloxera. By the way, more proof that our financial leaders need to take lithium: They expect to open Wall Street to trading on Monday. Here is my new business opportunity, renting brokers jet-skis and scuba equipment so they can work.

T.T.,
The French wine industry was saved by Texas Grape Grower, T.V. Munson.. He exported to France several ship loads of LeNoir to France to be used as root stock. . Several Vineyards in France made a 100% LeNoir wine when nothing else was living. Soon they had what the French called direct producers. France outlaw the planting of more direct Producers in the 1980's due to the huge surplus of cheap wine. Regent is a cross of JS26,205 (Chambourcin) with Dian made in Germany.. It works well for the Organic People in Germany but is not allowed in France. I got my cuttings from Cornell University Professor Bruce and have now grown Regent for six years with no problems except the deer. But the Dear love it. It has a real nice spicy cherry taste to it. Mexican food and Pasta good well with it also.

Do you thing I could rent my Sea going Boston Whaler row boat.. Well Only 5% of the trades are done on the floor of the NYSE the rest are done all over America.

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt
why not a with the well for a round of

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 27, 2011 10:01:03 GMT -5 @toughtimes said:

No, actually the drop for men is worse according to information I have seen. Women have customer service and communications skills that are more prized than manual trade skills whose demand disappears when construction dries up. See Don Peck's Pinched.

I believe that much urban crime has been occasioned by the slow loss of jobs for the moderately skilled, non-college educated male. The devil makes work for idle hands.

T.T.,
Over the last three years here in Abilene,TX the two local one or two year programs are growing my leaps and bounds. Things like Wind turbine technology, CNA programs and Code Welding are in more demand then they can supply.. Also we have high demand for A&P graduate for American Airlines Eagle line as they have a huge maintenance program here.

I talked to the DON last week about staffing and she said the number of male RN has doubled in the last four years. They are great!!! They love the field.

What I have seen in the last two years is males who have worked some 50 to 60 hours a week, in retirement the marriage is going to change. She has rarely seen him in the light of day now have to "Put UP" with him mooping all day in her house with little to do. This was the world of my mother and grand mother.. Both Grandfathers worked until their 80's. Looks like Me too, what else to do. Travel to Ludwig II dream castle?? Cheaper to go to lost wages, NV ??

Just a thought,
Bi metal Au Pt

[Opti]

Aug 27, 2011 10:01:03 GMT -5 @toughtimes said:

No, actually the drop for men is worse according to information I have seen. Women have customer service and communications skills that are more prized than manual trade skills whose demand disappears when construction dries up. See Don Peck's Pinched.

I believe that much urban crime has been occasioned by the slow loss of jobs for the moderately skilled, non-college educated male. The devil makes work for idle hands.

Over the entire population you might be correct. It times like these the married men are often laid off last in techie jobs and single women seem to be protected less than single men as well. I know a lot of professional women and customer service/communication skills
get you cheap jobs of usually $30K or less a year compared to $60-$100K and above they used to have. My part of the IT industry has been at death's door and out-sourced to China, India, Israel so I think I'm not that dis-similar for those who used to make decent money in construction. I've taken crappy jobs and/or low paying jobs to get by and haven't had a decent IT job since 2003.

I think most men could do that stuff too if they really wanted to and were willing to endure a reduced lifestyle that many professional women and men have had to accept these past couple years.

[Opti]

I am very unhappy with lower pay and I hate taking bullshit which is why I'm considered back office material and haven't gotten many promotions.

Maybe these men are living off their wives and the system? I'm single and the single male and professional females I know are taking the crappy demeaning jobs when they are available because it beats giving up your place to live and living on the street.

[busymom]

bimetal: I agree that I prefer a wine that is a little sweeter. Your Merlot sounds very good!

As to a good use for marbles: if you have visitors who like to go snooping thru your house, I always heard you should put a lot of marbles in your medicine cabinet in the bathroom. Once your nosy visitors peek in the cabinet, the whole house will know it, and the noise gives them a good scare!

[Opti]

Never read the poem and didn't see it skimming the very long page from your link. Not sure what an effete goody-two shoes is. While techie males usually don't show physical prowess in the workplace(neither do I! ) feminine goody two shoes is not a phrase I would use to describe any of them. Cunning, intelligent, masterful politician and backstabber, interesting - yes.

Times and cultures change. I think that's a good thing.
Had a martial artist BF who could probably handle any he-man from back in the day and luckily for me was also well-spoken, well-dressed and appreciated
good food.

[Opti]

Oh, and I prefer those beautiful long aged reds like Cabernet and Zinfandel. Some Merlots are so soft it bores me to even drink them.


(I do love a really good ice wine too, but older red wines with at least three distinct tastes are best, i.e. initial taste on the palate, middle notes, and finish!)

[Opti]

Tough, I would hope not! I'm a woman. Can I be effete?

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 27, 2011 12:04:02 GMT -5 Opti said:

Oh, and I prefer those beautiful long aged reds like Cabernet and Zinfandel. Some Merlots are so soft it bores me to even drink them.


(I do love a really good ice wine too, but older red wines with at least three distinct tastes are best, i.e. initial taste on the palate, middle notes, and finish!)

optimist4life,

Yes, The older Merlot vines( older clones) had a tendency to make a merlot were a bit boring as they only had one clone and that tended to be a big producer.. Now we have the better clones they are would fruity and a mix of the clones can produce interesting wine. The best use is to blend with the two Cabs for the left bank or right bank mertage. You blend fully mature wine and the problem is the Cab. Franc takes longer to mature.. Ages well and takes longer aging then C.S. .. I tried an 30 year old LaTour ... that was great..

You may have noted I use a quite young Merlot 181 with an older Cab Franc.. This is a bit more complex and still has a lot of fruit under tone.. I did a Dijon 181/314 blend with Cab Franc 5% and it turned out real good.. I have never tried a very old Zinfandel wine but I have friend in California that have some 100 year old + Vines that produce a wonderful product at about 36 months.. There Great Grandfather brought them in from the old country. ( Vinfandel is now know as Primitivo in Southern Italy ) stream.ucanr.org/zinfandel/golino/

Thank-you,
Bi Metal Au Pt

K4U...
Vineyard Notes:
Peirano Estate Vineyards’ Merlot is produced from 6 different clones, or sub-varieties, of Merlot grown on the estate, including two rare French clones (#181 and #314), as well as the very rare Italian clone #9. Peirano Estate was the first commercial winery to grow and produce wine from these rare Merlot clones. Each of these clones distinctive characters are further enhanced by shoot thinning and positioning, allowing for maximum light refraction to properly ripen the grapes. We also employ natural suppression of insects and rodents through natural means- predatory insects, specific bird habitats, and the like- to ensure the vines maintain their health through the growing season. The grapes were all hand selected from within each section for maximum maturity and flavor.

Winemaker Notes:
After hand harvesting all of the best Merlot from our estate vineyard, the fruit arrives at the winery ready for its careful journey from grape to wine. The must was inoculated with Bordeaux red Pasteur yeast, fermented to dryness, pressed and settled before being moved into barrels. Aged for 12 months in all French oak barrels, of which less than 20% was new oak. The barrels were specifically selected to compliment the supple structure of our Merlot, and came from such cooperages as Demptos, Vernou, Seguin Moreau and Mendocino. The wine was racked after completion of malolactic fermentation, and every three months following, while the barrels were topped up every two weeks to keep headspace at an absolute minimum.

Tasting Notes:
Aromas of rich ripe cherries, blackberries with hints of toast, and vanilla coalesce into a single sensation of olfactory bliss. The mouth is filled with an array of flavors, including cherry, plum, cranapple, sweet raspberries and strawberries with lingering hints of cocoa and cinnamon, while supple tannins leave a pleasing finish. Each juicy sip is more comforting than the last always leaving the palate to want more.

[tyfighter3]

Bruce, Tasting Notes, Would that be the true meaning of being a alcoholic?

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 29, 2011 19:08:12 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Bruce, Tasting Notes, Would that be the true meaning of being an alcoholic?

T3,
Most tasters drink very little.. As a fact they use a "spittoon". Robert Parker is the best know esp for the overpriced French Market.. It is funny how his ratings will make some of the third class wine estates look good vs. the Grand Vintners like LaTour and Rothschild's..

So with a Parker Rating of 99 I do like the Belair Merlot 80% Cab Franc 20% about 4 oz making a 750 ml at $40 serve six.

My key element in the Wine or vineyard development is the required confidence needed to develop a 50 year long investments. "LACK OF" Confidence to make long term investment is the major problem with the economy in the USA and EU. Wine-making is all about money.. A lot of money for the best land to grow grapes, years of money to plant grapes and buy equipment to make wine. This is the problem with much of the industrial products we need to build.. It has to do with huge cash investment at "RISK".

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

K4U and TT

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

BTI !

At least it's not trip sixes that are showing... Thanks for the compliment! It's the club, and it's A-Ok!

Global trade was what Made the Jewish population in Europe do well with the needs of banking and trade. The capital of The nation on the Heart of the Trail is Tuesday(?).. The day of the largest trade fair ( At the time) in the world.. That is a long supply line from China( the worlds largest economy at the time) to the UN-unifed German /Russian markets...

Yeah, it's too bad that people were a commodity back then. Until rebuilding was needed. How about a new consumer base? Someone says It's was great.. Until WE started to get some meat on our bones!

I think your right about the UN but wasn't there a few more, Italy, Greece, England.... Maybe...

Confucius was an interesting person, quite the road he started!

I know how much your loving the chocolate, Im out of k right now so here ya go..


Ya the green wine is made from fruit that looks like this...



It's a big part of the SUB economy right now. Could produce a lot of Tax revenue, plus, how much a year to keep a person in jail?? at least 50k a year I think. But along with things like tips at bars there is lots of cash out there!!!

That's why the FED doesn't really control as much as people think, isn't it?? The SUB economy is very, very big!

But ya I agree 110% housing needs to be part of the recovery for a broad base recovery to happen.

[bimetalaupt]

"Ya the green wine is made from fruit that looks like this..."

A++,
Looks like a change in the value-added Products to something that could make a real net in the income of the States.. Do you think we need to increase high value products.. That is thing that have a very low Labor content like the upper class of wine producers.

One other asset class that have little recoverable cost like the hedge-fund industry. With the increase in saving we should have the capital to use to improve productivity in new and exciting industries.. Problem is lack of long term thinking do to the lack of transparency of the future. Like the wine industry the investment need to be long term like the 50 year average life expediency of the latest third generation nuclear power.

For more answers and more clarity it will be "DEMANDING" to see where the jobs programs goes. It will be important to return return to the American investor. We need to convert savings to investment in long term assets that give a "RISK PREMIUM" for the risk.
Per Alan Greenspan" We have a huge element of uncertainty".
Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

K4all.. and
for me.. This is high value added products made in Abilene,TX

Attachments:

[tyfighter3]

Bruce, I don't know if I could be a wine taster, I could spit out the Bad ones but I would really have a hard time spitting out the GOOD ones. I have had some good Ice Wines and they are really good if you like sweet wines. I know it takes a lot of money and work to get a good winery up and running.

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 30, 2011 18:22:19 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Bruce, I don't know if I could be a wine taster, I could spit out the Bad ones but I would really have a hard time spitting out the GOOD ones. I have had some good Ice Wines and they are really good if you like sweet wines. I know it takes a lot of money and work to get a good winery up and running.

T3,
You are your own expert. . You know what you like and how to pair it to your taste. You like Ice wine and it is hard to make but a great wine with .. You know how to finish a great meal!!! K4U... In France the White wines are also great with the higher Sugar content then the German white.. Got to love the sweet whites...
Sweet white wines. In several locations and appellations throughout the region, sweet white wine is made from Sémillon, Sauvignon Blanc and Muscadelle grapes affected by noble rot. The best-known of these appellations is Sauternes , which also has an official classification, and where some of the world's most famous sweet wines are produced. There are also appellations neighboring Sauternes , on both sides of the Garonne river, where similar wines are made. The regional appellation for sweet white wines is Bordeaux Supérieur Blanc.[44] In 2007, 3.2% of the region's vineyard surface was used for wines in this family.[11] [45]
Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

Then we have a revelation in Texas.. Sweet Red wine of the Italian style made with the LeNoir Grape or other high sugar grapes like zinfandel.
and for me to go with the Sweet Red Italian wine