Last gasps of the correction in the bear market?

[Small Biz Owner]

As many posters have been saying here over the past 2 years, this was a fake recovery in stocks and the economy, bought with about 3.5 Trillion of our tax dollars.

Fed funded rally, keeping the bubble artificially inflated Bear market correction, now over?

I do not think they have any more ammunition left to inflate it again. Not with the cap on the debt ceiling.

Time to buy stocks coming up soon. When DOW falls below 10,000.

[smackdown]

To say it correctly... "they" don't have the "means" to keep the bubble artificially inflated-- any longer.

With derivatives trading gone and no new money being printed and all existing assets pledged to the Fed for prior trips to the cash window... there is only YOUR Big Fund and Broker holdings to be devoured by the sheer size of overhead and administration in a closed-capacity field. Banks cannot take in your giant cash wad (most are instituting penalties today for excessive amounts of hoarded grubber cash in deposit accounts). Metals are too high to sustain, so you'll be throwing your cash away and the "bottom" is a very long way down (historically). You could SHORT your holdings like in DXD, or invest in inflatedprotected funds (assuming you understand the gamble if we deflate instead of inflate).

This ABSOLUTELY isn't the time to put your life savings on auto-pilot or trust it to a third-party who REPRESENTS knowledge and skill but isn't obligated to refund you should they invest you in losing vessels. Perhaps if you've done VERY WELL, it is time to buy those defunct light industrial buildings near you and offer manufacturing start-ups FREE RENT for a year or two. It will solely be about Job Recovery for that duration- at least and recovering the communities that Big Finance raped and pillaged for profit. It's about HIRING now and cutting compensation to nothing for paper pushers and hired-in executives who terminated workforces to deliver corporate profits.

NO ECONOMY EVER SURVIVED on corporate profits and investor windfalls while turning the population into paupers. Keep the jails open, they'll be full and no, we don't want to read your book... crook.

[Deleted]

It felt good to make a rebalance INTO equities last night - been a long time.

A 10% shift in broad market in 2 weeks should have been big enough for a move – to someone like Bimetal who takes rebalancing to the 2nd decimal place, the past 2 weeks must feel like bridging the Grand Canyon. Waiting for 25%+ swings seems a bit of a stretch. I have a lag in mutual exchanges, so I need to see a decent spread before pulling the trigger – I can’t imagine a 500 pt reversal today, so I feel fine right now.

[smackdown]

I understand you. I don't see a 500 point reversal today either but we're not done at a 12% correction. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Dow at 9,000 over the next month and some incredibly lame gyrating about saying NO to new tax rates or simply confiscating wealth to keep it from corrupting any type of financial vessel. There's only so much money, it needs redistribution. Better to be a voluntary activity than otherwise.

[smackdown]

Those that put it up earlier already lost it, which is likely the prevailing trend until the end.

[maui1]

today's 400 point trading range tells me the market is ready to explode

[smackdown]

Me too.

[decoy409]

ECB steps in with unregulated speculation and magic happens. This is what I call 'stallation' while SUPER MILKER collects at will.

[smackdown]

Absolutely RIGHT. The Italy Spain plan like our recent Debt Ceiling Hike-- doesn't include EMPLOYMENT. Time to crush the financial sector and start our currencies (worldwide) from scratch.

[frankq]

Aug 5, 2011 7:53:50 GMT -5 @taciturnmensan said:

It felt good to make a rebalance INTO equities last night - been a long time.

A 10% shift in broad market in 2 weeks should have been big enough for a move – to someone like Bimetal who takes rebalancing to the 2nd decimal place, the past 2 weeks must feel like bridging the Grand Canyon. Waiting for 25%+ swings seems a bit of a stretch. I have a lag in mutual exchanges, so I need to see a decent spread before pulling the trigger – I can’t imagine a 500 pt reversal today, so I feel fine right now.

I think that's a good plan. I just went in with 30%. I have the same deal with lag in the mutuals and I've been in cash with that money for a month. We'll see how the coming week goes. The Europeans will have to deal with this Euro nonsense now. I think this is a good opportunity in the making.

[Deleted]

Thank FQ, K for comment. S&P flat today. TM is happy. Bring on the next move, up or down doesn’t matter to those of us who use rebalancing as a primary investment strategy.

I remain firm that large dividend paying multinationals are the play these days. They are in the best position to take advantage of continued low interest rates, and of course, they are the first to chow on Fed gratis.

Using my employer as a gauge – domestic earnings are positive, but not spectacular. And while no reason to believe domestic CRE is going to explode upward, foreign BU’s – notably Asia-PAC (India & China lead), and other areas that don’t get much press including SA & Australia, are experiencing growth AND have positive outlooks. There is concern that our National Gvt will look to multinational Corps for add’l revenue – playing the “outsourcing” card. I frequently appeal to people to place multi’s in context – not to label all as outsourcing devils. The profit made on a CRE development in Guangzhou is not at the expense of a single American job. Unfortunately, as long as conventional tax wisdom says foreign profits equate with an out of work factory drone, well, those earnings stay overseas as long as there is an onerous border tax.

Should we see this as either a brief buying opportunity to own U.S. equities in a contained sell-off, or that the selling is in advance of prolonged economic weakness…I’ll leave that question to the prognosticators.

While I do my simpleton personal investing, corporate me will press to keep all my people gainfully employed.

[smackdown]

The Dow will fall like a rock next week as Big Funds pull out for safe harbors. We could lose a major bank to failure by Friday.

[decoy409]

I like the part about the don't know if they are going backward or forward and the tiny click that follows along like the three stooges or keystone cops.
One day it is 'we are on a streak' and the next day it is 'no streak.' And yet in control of how many millions? That is just too funny! Sickly funny but still funny!

Paper,Paper,Paper! Nothing like the sales of good old paper.

[smackdown]

That "paper" is the legacies of The Greatest Generation. A group who fought against World Domination, had kids and allow them to dominate the world as lawyers and financiers. Cruel irony at the least.

[blackcard]

<<When DOW falls below 10,000>>

Do you think it will really fall that far?

[usaone]

9500 and then a quick rebound.

[blackcard]

<<9500 and then a quick rebound.>>

But you were posting that it was a good day to buy when DOW was at 11,600. ?

[smackdown]

"But you were posting that it was a good day to buy when DOW was at 11,600"

Kind of reveals his cardboard career, doesn't it? We'll see 9,000 before 12,000 soon enough. You don't buy into shrinkage and compression. You buy once the pariah have been fried clean of the stock and it's hiring personnel to ramp-up girth for growth (and not just because somebody bought a new business plan/scheme/dream). At 6,700 (Dow) nearly every Platform Business will be gone... no assets, no industry, no operations, just paper pushers in some Ivory Tower-- isn't going to weather a downturn. Sadly, we're just now returning to a natural bottoming trend that will lead to recovery. The future will be difficult because we'll be straddled with thousands of degree-holders who can't butter their own bread, much less help us rebuild a base economy through local industry. We have yet to target the biggest cancer to our recovery-- technology-used-poorly. We already know that China is a major technological thread (to national security) and has compromised our privacy- electronically. We need to ditch the device and recover integrity. It will be extremely expensive.

[usaone]

Aug 8, 2011 18:34:55 GMT -5 blackcard said:

<<9500 and then a quick rebound.>>

But you were posting that it was a good day to buy when DOW was at 11,600. ?

Buy on the way down and sell on the way up. We may not get all the way down to 9500 and if we do that doesnt mean every stock will continue to fall.

[lifewasgood]

Wow, with all the positive buying when the Dow went below 12000, how in the world did it get below 11000?

[smackdown]

"We may not get all the way down to 9500 and if we do that doesn't mean every stock will continue to fall."

Sure it does. Every CEO and Board follows the same lead. It's a puppet-get-rich show. When one goes, they all go. What a reason NOT to be in the markets now. Oh, and a 200+ point surge just today? Makes you wonder how many retirement home patient fortunes are funding it. They don't keep old people on drugs for nothing.

[decoy409]

"Oh, and a 200+ point surge just today? Makes you wonder how many retirement home patient fortunes are funding it. They don't keep old people on drugs for nothing."

Well as much as I hate to see the page turn to the next chapter of destruction by demise,here we are!

[decoy409]

Then the cry babies come out.

[Virgil Showlion]

The 400+ ramp before the close was the result of the Fed lowering rates and setting parameters for negative rates. Basically, they're going to force fixed income earners to buy higher yielding asset classes--most notably, equities.

The market seems to like that fact.

[lifewasgood]

Yup, but it won't work out so well, along with the downgrade to push higher yields for risker investment. When the Fed is down to negative rates and the US Gov is downgraded to junk, what else is left except print mo money mo money mo money.