More on the AI programs :MMXII and Expert

[bimetalaupt]

MMXII is a major program that uses several Neural Network programs, 16 IA64 CPU and about 96 Gig of memory....options use Dr. Hulls works as does Expert ..MMXII IS BASED MORE THEN ANYTHING ELSE ON DELTA.. DELTA ROCKS!!!
aLSO WITH LIMITS TO VALUE AT RISK AND THE BIG THETA-GAMMA RELATIONSHIP SHIFT FOR RISK PROFILE...THE 25/75 WE TALKED TO FTI ABOUT..EVENT DRIVEN
Expert is the older of the systems.. Works on a smaller IA64 Super-Dome.. Most of the math are based on Hull and Dayhoff works.. This is due to be reworked this fall..THE SYSTEM IS BASED ON GAMMA 13.6 AND STRESS TEST 14.9

Both systems have worked well and beat the S&P 500..Expert is the re-balancing system I have talked about for three years.

Gold projection is now 1812.57033891564901750826...

You know it got that one right!!

You will note Trend for DJIA is down...Sep or Oct it should turn if you can weight...or Waite

With summer beer and BBQ my Weight will be ouch!!

Just a thought,
Bi Metal aka BTI..

If you have a question .. Ask

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[bimetalaupt]

Note on the above:

This is the math argument against the Efficient Frontier.. or Modern Portfolio Theory..

The Gamma Natural thesis will be developed more with Stocks,Bonds.Physical assets and Derivative of the above...(Options,Futures and other Derivatives,4th Ed., John Hull..Prentice Hall , 1999)

Just a thought,
Bruce

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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sorry I missed this BTI.

Who enters the data?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

That's what MMXII says!

[bimetalaupt]

FOR THE RECORD...EFFICIENT FRONTIER IS 40% CASH AND BONDS AND 60% STOCKS.. THE 50/50 IS MORE A DEFENSE...SMALL REDUCTION IS YIELD BUT A LARGE REDUCTION IN RISK...I HAVE A BETTER CHART..

STOCKS ALONE IN A MATCH FOR DJ TOTAL STOCK MARKET YIELD IS ABOUT8.204299502740170% WITH CURRENT REDUCTION FOR BLACK SWANS...
THE CURRENT ESTIMATE FOR YIELD FOR THE 50/50 SYSTEM IS 7.270112987664852%. THIS MEANS THE BLACK SWAN FEVER BONDS

THIS IS A TRADING SYSTEM FOR MANAGEMENT OF ASSETS..BONDS..CASH. SOME OPTIONS ARE FOR PROTECTION..GAMMA NEUTRAL..

Bruce

[bimetalaupt]

The Four Pillars of Investing:

Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio


The Nature of the Beast

Chapter 1. No Guts, No Glory: Risk and return in the capital markets from the ancient world to Yahoo!

Chapter 2. Measuring the Beast: Where stock and bond returns really come from.

Chapter 3. The Market Is Smarter Than You Are: How to get on the good side of an 800-pound gorilla.

Chapter 4. The Perfect Portfolio: All right, you can’t have it. But you can get tolerably close.

When Markets Go Berserk

Chapter 5. Tops—A History of Manias: How you and your neighbors got snookered in the market’s oldest con game.

Chapter 6. Bottoms—The Agony and the Opportunity: When only your grandfather owns stocks.

The Analyst’s Couch

Chapter 7. Misbehavior: Meet the enemy, the face in the mirror.

Chapter 8. Behavioral Therapy: It hurts and it’s not easy. But it is the only chance you’ve got.

The Carny Barkers

Chapter 9. Your Broker Is Not Your Buddy: How Merrill Lynch and Smith Barney have their hands in your pocket.

Chapter 10. Neither Is Your Mutual Fund: The new opiate of the people.

Chapter 11. Oliver Stone Meets Wall Street: Bread and circuses for John Q. Investor.

The Winner’s Game

Chapter 12. Will You Have Enough? How to avoid a diet of Alpo and Little Friskies.

Chapter 13. Defining Your Mix: Asset allocation without microprocessors.

Chapter 14. Getting Started, Keeping It Going: Getting off the dime. Sailing through the rough patc

[bimetalaupt]

Chapter 13. Defining Your Mix: Asset allocation without microprocessors.

DID I HEAR A WHAT ..ONE MORE TIME ...SO HERE IS FOR THE 50/50 LOW RISK ALLOCATION..BUT WAIT.. YOU BUY STOCKS WHEN EVERYONE ELSE IS SELLING AND SELL WHEN THEY ARE BUYING.. THAT IS NOT AUTOMATIC : IT IS A TICKET FOR A FAMILY DISCUSSION ABOUT BALLS AND ... THEN WHEN EVERYONE ELSE IS CRYING ABOUT THE STOCK MARKET BEING DOWN WITH THE WORDS" THE MARKET IS DOWN" YOU ASK.

MARKET DOWN?? AND THAT WILL BE WHAT MARKET? BOND MARKET YIELD IS DOWN BUT THAT IS UP FOR VALUE..LONGEST RUNNING BULL IN THE HISTORY OF THE BONDS..AND T-BONDS ARE MORE LIQUID..

OPTION MARKET FOR PUTS IS UP VERY WELL ...THANK-YOU AND THE MARKET OF MARKETS IS WHAT..T-BONDS AND STATE BONDS. IS LARGER THEN BLUE CHIPS.. ADD CORPORATE BONDS TO THE BOND MARKET AND THAT IS TWO TIMES BIGGER THEN STOCKS

WITH THE FACT THAT BONDS MOVE IN ABOUT -59.38668362931864663778% EFFECTIVE NEGATIVE CORRELATION TO DJIA.. THIS REDUCES YOUR RISK !!! FOR THOSE WHO HAVE DONE THIS OVER THE LAST 12-20 YEARS ..YOU HAVE BEATEN S&P500.. MORE THEN 70% OF THE TIME.
YOUR SHARPE INDEX IS ABOUT 1.5 OE YOU ARE 50% BETTER OFF THEN STRAIGHT STOCKS...
Just a thought,
Bruce







111

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

IT IS A TICKET FOR A FAMILY DISCUSSION ABOUT BALLS AND

The Central tendency being M3 AKA Liquid. You can buy low and stay if you have KING KASH in hand.

Great point Bruce.

[bimetalaupt]

Jan 12, 2012 16:25:20 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

IT IS A TICKET FOR A FAMILY DISCUSSION ABOUT BALLS AND

The Central tendency being M3 AKA Liquid. You can buy low and stay if you have KING KASH in hand.

Great point Bruce.

Risk djia= 1400


Return improved to 8.35%