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Post by nicomachus on Jan 8, 2011 15:43:41 GMT -5
"Look at me. I was born with nothing and I pulled myself up into utter poverty." -Groucho Marx
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Post by comokate on Jan 10, 2011 15:45:27 GMT -5
and sadly, so few care
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 11, 2011 10:22:55 GMT -5
The USA has always had fierce wage competition at the bottom of the economic Scale. During the Civil war it was the Freed slaves vs Irish. Then the Irish vs German Jews. During the 20th Century we had a lot of Migrants from places like escape from the Potato Famine. One reason the North won the civil war was the influx of experienced Foot soldier from Ireland. They were paid to sign up to fight. We did not have to teach them modern warfare.. The English had done that for us.
What are we seeing now?? Increased demand for the few jobs meaning we have the fastest growing Productivity in the World. By the end of this depression we should see a saving rate of 12.5% esp from the new members of our country.. Call it the saving generation.
Just a thought, Bi Metal Au Pt
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 12, 2011 3:35:10 GMT -5
To add some Idea about how bad things were in the 1873-1890 Great Depression in Germany the industrial production increased 100% with the lower wages. Do you think this has a relative correlation to today's USA . production numbers. These are hard numbers and we have increased productivity more then GDP.. IE increased under employment. The truth is history repeats itself. \If history repeats itself then we should see a real reduction in the Total Imports of good. We can make anything we need and a lot of what we want.
Just a thought, Bi Metal Au Pt
By the way : Most of Europe was brought under due to the insolvency of an Austrian Bank... A similar process of overexpansion was going on in Germany and Austria, where the period from German unification in 1870/71 to the crash in 1873 came to be called the Gründerjahre or "founders' years". A liberalized incorporation law in Germany led to the founding of new enterprises, such as the Deutsche Bank, as well as the incorporation of established ones. Euphoria over the military victory against France in 1871, combined with the influx of capital from the payment by France of war reparations, encouraged stock market speculation in railways, factories, docks, steamships - in short, the same areas of overexpansion as in the United States.[16] It was in the immediate aftermath of Bismarck's victory against France that he began the process of silver demonetization. The process began on 23 November 1871 and culminated in the introduction of the gold mark on 9 July 1873 as the currency for the new united reich to replace the silver coins of all the constituent parts. Germany was now on the gold standard.[17] Demonetization of silver was therefore a common element in the crises on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
On May 9, 1873, the Vienna Stock Exchange crashed, no longer able to sustain false expansion, insolvency, and dishonest manipulations. A series of Viennese bank failures resulted, causing a contraction of the money available for business lending. 25 years after the Revolutions of 1848 was then one of the more famous private individuals, who went private bankrupt in 1873 in Vienna, Stephan Keglevich a relative of Gábor Keglevich, who had been the Lord High Treasurer of Hungary 1842-1848 and who had founded in 1847 with some others a financing association to finance the Hungarian industry and to protect the loan repayments, similar to the Kreditschutzverband von 1870 (Austria's association for the protection of creditors and for the protection of the interests of its members in cases of bankruptcy). Therefore it was possible that a series of Austrian banks were newly established in 1873 after the Vienna Stock Exchange crash.[18] In contrast to Berlin, where the railway empire of Bethel Henry Strousberg crashed after a ruinous settlement with the Romanian government, bursting the speculation bubble in Germany. The contraction of the German economy was exacerbated by the conclusion of war reparations payments to Germany by France in September 1873. Coming two years after the founding of the German Empire, the panic became known as the Gründerkrach or "founders' crash".[19][20][21]
No doubt, in 1873, as already noticed, the collapse of the foreign loan financing had been foreshadowed, but the anticipatory events of that year were in themselves comparatively unimportant, Buda the old capital of Hungary and Óbuda were officially united with Pest,[22] thus creating the new metropolis of Budapest in 1873. The described important difference of stability between Vienna and Berlin had the effect that the French indemnity to Germany overflowed thence to Austria and Russia, but this indemnity payments aggravated the crisis in Austria, which had been benefited by the accumulation of capital not only in Germany, but also in England, Holland, Belgium, France and Russia.[23]
Recovery from the crash was much quicker in Europe than in the United States.[24][25] Moreover, German businesses managed to avoid the sort of deep wage cuts that embittered American labor relations at the time.[25] There was an anti-Semitic component to the economic recovery in Germany and Austria as small investors irrationally blamed the Jews for their losses in the crash.[26][27] False expansions have been reconsidered. Monetary distribution issues are first and foremost a question of income distribution between labour economics and capital (economics).[28] Soon more luxury hotels and villas were built in Opatija and a new railway line was extended in 1873 from the Vienna-Trieste line to Rijeka, from where it was possible to go by tram to Opatija. The strong increase of port traffic meant that there was a permanent request for expansion.[29] The Suez Canal was opened in 1869. 1875-1890 became "the golden years" of Giovanni de Ciotta in Fiume (Rijeka). During the same 15 years of 1875-1890 the population grew by 70% in Trieste, which meant a clear statistical evidence of a crisis.[30] The above mentioned Stephan Keglevich invented a vodka recipe for "Vodka Keglevich" in 1882 and Lionello Stock founded the liqueur company Camis & Stock in 1884 in Trieste, which is marketed in Europe, Russia, USA, Israel and Japan.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 12, 2011 11:40:50 GMT -5
Well.. Look at it this way.. Depressions reduces prices so you make a lot of money owning bonds.. This was true in 1873, 1905 and 1931.. So Get rich with FTI and buy bonds with Bi Metal Au Pt... You get richer at the cost of the working poor that have no assets..
This was FDR logic for SS investment Trust.. They had to put the money somewhere so they put it in Special Government bonds that paid no interest. Great deal for the poor who made more on the payments then invested, it made investors out of the poor and the Treasury got interest free loans.. Like the Federal Reserve note you hold in you pocket.. It is called the Dollar..
Now SS sends out statements telling you how much money you have paid into SS.. Sorry not longer funded
Just a thought, Bi Metal Au Pt
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decoy409
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Post by decoy409 on Jan 12, 2011 12:24:29 GMT -5
Como, now, now. After all, just look atthe STARS that raised MONEY from all of the PATRIOTS trying to help things out say in Haiti. Why I am sure glad that ignorance was established long ago as the GIVERS can have a oppurtunity SEE where it went. By the way, where did it go to help those in need in Hati out?
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Tesla_DC-meme
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Post by Tesla_DC-meme on Jan 12, 2011 13:36:01 GMT -5
Great content on the history of the US labor market. Bruce, can you tell the good folks more about the Dollar? I have always believed that the US Dollar is a symbol of freedom and opportunity for the hard working (rich or poor) among us. Just ask any small business owner or small employer. "And you have your choices And these are what make man great His ladder to the stars."
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Post by comokate on Jan 12, 2011 14:28:54 GMT -5
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domeasingold
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Post by domeasingold on Jan 12, 2011 14:44:49 GMT -5
No sh*t Como. I live in Illinois. At least they didn't tack on the $1 cigarette tax.....yet. (disclaimer..I am agreeing with you)
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 12, 2011 16:18:41 GMT -5
To the Working poor.. Say someone working at minimum wages the SS Tax and Medicare tax is far greater then their Income tax( if they have any). Call it Tax or forced savings as the system in 1935 did not pay out retirement benefits until about 1945 when the first reached the retirement age of 65 and had 40 quarters. The SSS had a real trust until Johnson used its excess money to pay for the war. So if you worked at Minimum wage the original system was set up for you to get about 60% replacement income vs 70% for the German system. Inflation was not kind to the system as the bonds have never paid a dime in interest.
On the other hand with a pay-go system there is not risk to inflation like France.. Benefits are paid within 14 days of being received by the Retirement system. That is a zero inflation risk but no depression protection as the system had in 1935.
My point is that the world has changed from 1935 to 2010.. We have more older people living past 65 etc. We have less new jobs and more debt. Something has to be done , now!!! Too many working poor have depended 100% on SS to pay for their retirement. If you think of it , 60% replacement is not going to be a great retirement but it can work if you have a system. The upper end of the system is about 20% replacement vs German 70% or France General Fund of 60% replacement. We are know in the EU as being the worst country to be at the bottom of the income ranks.
Just a thought, Bi Metal Au Pt
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 12, 2011 16:22:25 GMT -5
PS: I forget to add the assumption for 60% was to start at age 15 and to work until you are 70 at Minimum Wage with no skipped quarters. From lecture notes on bonds and the interesting things Government do Lecture.
This is only going to be the start of a book on bonds on Duff.
Regards, Bi Metal Au Pt
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Jan 12, 2011 19:32:11 GMT -5
This decline started 3 decades ago when a single wage earner per family could no longer make it. After 30 years of both parents working, now once again it's getting hard to make it again. (simply put) What will be the next step down? I am curious what your "waking up" means and how it will stop this progression to a yet ever lower standard of living in the US, that global wealth redistribution policies like NAFTA tend to do. I'd say it went from single wage earner, to a two income family, to a two income family relying on credit, to ?. Guess it's back to company towns.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 12, 2011 19:51:30 GMT -5
This decline started 3 decades ago when a single wage earner per family could no longer make it. After 30 years of both parents working, now once again it's getting hard to make it again. (simply put) What will be the next step down? I am curious what your "waking up" means and how it will stop this progression to a yet ever lower standard of living in the US, that global wealth redistribution policies like NAFTA tend to do. I'd say it went from single wage earner, to a two income family, to a two income family relying on credit, to ?. Guess it's back to company towns. What we are seeing is Sister moving back with sister, Mother moving back with son and wife, and all with the addition of small SS checks or service benefits of 25 or more years given to save America!!! How else can you pay for your McMantion. In the 1880 New York Census I noted the number of family members in my Great Great Grand father house. It is cheaper to use a room and get a little money they try to go it alone. Well , This is a very European thing esp in Germany. We are seeing it again. Grandparents taking care of grandchildren as parents worked. Just a thought, Bi Metal Au Pt
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 13, 2011 8:59:48 GMT -5
PS: I forget to add the assumption for 60% was to start at age 15 and to work until you are 70 at Minimum Wage with no skipped quarters. From lecture notes on bonds and the interesting things Government do Lecture. This is only going to be the start of a book on bonds on Duff. Regards, Bi Metal Au Pt On the other hand if they do work for 55.5 years and manage to save one or two percent by the time they are 70.5 they will have more money. When I worked for Walgreen's we had a few older working ladies that were in the profit sharing . You got about 5 dollars for each dollar invested. So You would invest at $1.50/hr 0.03each hour so every pay check would cost you about $1.20 and Walgreen's could add 6.00 to it so that make 7.20 a week. This would be about 31.20/ month or 374.4 a year. They told me I could have over one million by the time I retired at 67( Pharmacist)... but the cashier would have 2.376 Million by age 70.5 if you used the 12% return they did. Not bad .. at 1.50/hr!!! and free life insurance. So she/he would get a monthly payment of about 23 thousand/ month plus SS check. Lot better then the Deal I got from Connecticut Mutual Life Insurance with my paid up 65 fancy costly life insurance. Just a thought, Bi Metal Au Pt Attachments:
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2011 19:48:06 GMT -5
In my opinion the big difference between what's going on now & what's happened in the past is that there is government involvement & a system in place for people to get help. That is going to affect (differently) what will happen now & what's happened in the past.
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Post by itstippy on Jan 13, 2011 21:32:28 GMT -5
Another big difference is that many American middle-class families (a million or more households) will join the "working poor" without having ever lived that lifestyle, or having thought about living that lifestyle, or having been exposed to others who do live that lifestyle. It's completely foreign to them. They grew up as sheltered, middle-class Americans. I've known many "working poor" families over the years. Admirable people in many ways. Most work hard at crappy jobs for little pay. They're resilient and resourceful and know how to live on very little. They share resources among those they trust. They grew up "working poor"; they know how it's done. We're going to see a million middle class American families downsized from their living-wage jobs, unemployment benefits exhausted, house forclosed on, COBRA insurance run out, forced to take "working poor" jobs. Adopting to that lifestyle will be brutal.
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texasredneck
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Post by texasredneck on Jan 15, 2011 15:49:54 GMT -5
If Ben maintains the low interest rates for 4 or 5 more years while he hopes the labor market will improve there will not be any middle class in the U. S.
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Post by djrick on Jan 16, 2011 20:00:03 GMT -5
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/01/the-rise-of-the-new-global-elite/8343/5/Not sure if this has been quoted here yet but I found it refreshing to see them speaking so candidly. The good news—and the bad news—for America is that the nation’s own super-elite is rapidly adjusting to this more global perspective. The U.S.-based CEO of one of the world’s largest hedge funds told me that his firm’s investment committee often discusses the question of who wins and who loses in today’s economy. In a recent internal debate, he said, one of his senior colleagues had argued that the hollowing-out of the American middle class didn’t really matter. “His point was that if the transformation of the world economy lifts four people in China and India out of poverty and into the middle class, and meanwhile means one American drops out of the middle class, that’s not such a bad trade,” the CEO recalled.
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midwesterner (banned)
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Post by midwesterner (banned) on Jan 16, 2011 23:33:07 GMT -5
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Post by comokate on Jan 16, 2011 23:58:42 GMT -5
I'm not sure a lot of people are aware that the "food stamp" program was designed in the 1930's to help subsidize farmers ( to help ensure them a somewhat steady income ). www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/21/AR2007102101372.htmlFarming is a *big* industry up here...and there are several nationally known politicians from this area that decry "welfare", yet they themselves receive US government subsidies from these very programs-
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Post by itstippy on Jan 17, 2011 0:15:29 GMT -5
It's not a good situation, I agree. I don't see it improving soon, either. A family of five, and he's an out-of work construction worker? Pretty bleak. That said, I know households who would think $500 per month for food is living large. That's $125 per week. You can buy a boatload of food with that, if you know what to buy.
Every week my friends Lenny & Dorothy go into town for church and to visit. They take his old Buick, and a major part of the trip is grocery shopping at the Supermart before heading back home. They do not spend much time in the "frozen foods" section; they prefer the bulk foods and "institution size" aisles. There they buy 50# bags of potatoes, 30# bags of rice, cases of discount brand canned vegetables, big bulk bags of flour and sugar, 5# blocks of lard, 5# boxes of elbow macaroni, etc.
Dorothy feeds half a dozen kids on any given a day - her great-grandkids and neighborhood waifs and who knows who else. There's always a gang around the place, and she's always cooking something in big pots and in her oven. I don't think she even owns a "sauce pan".
Food is cheap in this country. Lenny & Dorothy are working poor (now retired). She must weigh 300 pounds. Most all their friends are also working poor. They're almost all obese.
PS - Don't feel bad for Lenny & Dorothy. Two of their 7 kids are extremely successful, love them dearly, and would buy them whatever they feel they need. It's a weird situation that's hard for a lot of people to grasp. Old Man Lenny is sharp as a tack and a real Yankee Trader. I once saw him haggle a poor guy down to $5 for an old lawnmower at a yard sale. Then he handed the guy a $50 bill, told him "God Bless", and loaded the broken-down thing in the trunk of his Buick.
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decoy409
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Post by decoy409 on Jan 17, 2011 12:52:02 GMT -5
The working poor hey. What a title. I like this comment, Quote: I have always believed that the US Dollar is a symbol of freedom and opportunity for the hard working (rich or poor) among us. That's a good one! Mine says FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE at the top. (excerpt) Whereas issuance of United States Notes ended in January 1971, existing United States Notes are still valid currency in the United States, though extremely rarely seen in circulation, given that paper money currently consists almost exclusively of Federal Reserve Notes. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Notewhich brings me to, Quote: Federal Reserve Purchasing Over 60% of 2011’s Fiscal Deficit www.financialsense.com/contributors/gonzalo-lira/federal-reserve-purchasing-over-60-percent-of-2011-fiscal-deficitOh we are for certain on SPIN CYCLE.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 17, 2011 20:41:59 GMT -5
Great content on the history of the US labor market. Bruce, can you tell the good folks more about the Dollar? I have always believed that the US Dollar is a symbol of freedom and opportunity for the hard working (rich or poor) among us. Just ask any small business owner or small employer. "And you have your choices And these are what make man great His ladder to the stars." Gold Finger, I have been thinking about what the Dollar is for some time now.. It is a duplexic thing.. On one hand to the owner it is an passage to the future.. An Asset..Like gold a standard of future buying you gave up for this object.. For the debtor it is tha labour you own the owner of the debt.. "Let us not be crucified on a cross of gold" Wm Jennings Bryan.. Lost effort to be President.. Farmers wanted soft money and bankers wanted hard money.. real assets like gold or silver. Like Bismarck, It was not possible to keep the ratio of silver to gold at 15:1. Germany gave up the bi metal standard with the discovery of Homestead. To me the Dollar is the future and I do believe in the 30 year T-Bond. The dollar is backed by the American saver!!! Just a thought, Bi Metal Au Pt
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decoy409
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Post by decoy409 on Jan 17, 2011 20:48:28 GMT -5
Bruce, that was so funny that I just spit my soda on my keyboard lol. As I look at what I posted above you, Quote: That's a good one! Mine says FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE at the top. (excerpt) Whereas issuance of United States Notes ended in January 1971, existing United States Notes are still valid currency in the United States, though extremely rarely seen in circulation, given that paper money currently consists almost exclusively of Federal Reserve Notes. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Notewhich brings me to, Quote: Federal Reserve Purchasing Over 60% of 2011’s Fiscal Deficit www.financialsense.com/contributo....fiscal-de ficit Sorry Bruce, I know you come from a long run of bankers, however I don't see what you are seeing here. Say, maybe I will feel diferent when I see how many go for this years Debt Credit Card for their Tax Return cake. You know, the one they are pushing with the SKYROCKET FEES.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 18, 2011 0:17:39 GMT -5
Decoy409, Kash is King!!!! Debt Free and Free OK the Dollar is backed by the American Saver.. Like the Bundesbank The Dollar is backed with more gold then any other real asset. The bonds just amplify the asset as the value of the Gold increases faster then M1.. M1 increased 7.6% for 2010 but gold was up 36%.
Just a thought on the American Dream.. Backed with strong Savings and a increasing numbers of savers in the hight of their earning. See chart my post #43 please
Bruce
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 18, 2011 11:40:25 GMT -5
Decoy409, Kash is King!!!! Debt Free and Free OK the Dollar is backed by the American Saver.. Like the Bundesbank The Dollar is backed with more gold then any other real asset. The bonds just amplify the asset as the value of the Gold increases faster then M1.. M1 increased 7.6% for 2010 but gold was up 36%. Just a thought on the American Dream.. Backed with strong Savings and a increasing numbers of savers in the hight of their earning. See chart my post #43 please Bruce To many in America the SS E-check in the bank will be a part of a system SIMULAR to the German Social Insurance except it will render a smaller income replacement. The net difference is that the once huge Trust find was raided by President Johnson to pay the bills for WAR. Today Like France, the system will pay out monies received within 14 days. This does mean we have a zero inflation risk due to the turnover in monies and the Federal Government is not selling zero cost bonds to the system as they did for the first 40 years. The brain trust of FDR only copies the system from Germany and made it cheaper ( an Anglo-Saxon thing-- very tight with the money).The good news for the first tier (on the bottom) is they will get back some five to ten time the monies they put into the system in the first place. [/img] Just a thought, Bi Metal Au Pt
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 18, 2011 11:56:58 GMT -5
Decoy409, Kash is King!!!! Debt Free and Free OK the Dollar is backed by the American Saver.. Like the Bundesbank The Dollar is backed with more gold then any other real asset. The bonds just amplify the asset as the value of the Gold increases faster then M1.. M1 increased 7.6% for 2010 but gold was up 36%. Just a thought on the American Dream.. Backed with strong Savings and a increasing numbers of savers in the hight of their earning. See chart my post #43 please Bruce Try this again.. Payout on average for Social Security is about 1,175/ month or a wage replacement of about 1,277.17/month or $7.35 an hour.. That is about what I was making in 1973 as a RPh in Midland,TX.. Except I did work about 60 hours a week in two jobs. just a thought, Bruce To many in America the SS E-check in the bank will be a part of a system SIMULAR to the German Social Insurance except it will render a smaller income replacement. The net difference is that the once huge Trust find was raided by President Johnson to pay the bills for WAR. Today Like France, the system will pay out monies received within 14 days. This does mean we have a zero inflation risk due to the turnover in monies and the Federal Government is not selling zero cost bonds to the system as they did for the first 40 years. The brain trust of FDR only copies the system from Germany and made it cheaper ( an Anglo-Saxon thing-- very tight with the money).The good news for the first tier (on the bottom) is they will get back some five to ten time the monies they put into the system in the first place. [/img] Just a thought, Bi Metal Au Pt[/quote] Attachments:
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midwesterner (banned)
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Post by midwesterner (banned) on Jan 20, 2011 22:45:57 GMT -5
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Post by djrick on Jan 20, 2011 23:02:52 GMT -5
JP Morgan: King of Food Stamps fedupmontrealer.blogspot.com/2011/01/jp-morgan-king-of-food-stamps.html<snip> So after ruining an economy by placing bets on trillions of dollars of worthless derivatives, forcing the government (people) to bail you out at gunpoint, getting endless amounts of money from the Fed at almost zero interest and front-running said Fed in the Treasury market and making billions in profits for literally nothing, JP Morgan wants to benefit from the growing misery and hunger of the US population? So what happens if you have a problem with your food stamp debit card? Well, you call up a JP Morgan service center. When you do this, there is a very good chance that you are going to be helped by a JP Morgan call center employee in India. That's right - it turns out that JP Morgan is saving money by "outsourcing" food stamp customer service calls to India.
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Post by vl on Jan 21, 2011 8:13:23 GMT -5
BiMetal... your history lesson was off. Review the events after 1900 to 1905. They describe today most appropriately. We had-- banks over-extending on speculation they knew little about beyond the theorized return. That credit extended caused financial crimes. Big business used the readily available credit to manipulate the worker, all while retail sold everything it could to ignorant and mesmerized consumers through marketing and media manipulation. When the turnip couldn't be bled dry any longer, he withered and stopped making payments. That caused chain reaction collapse EXACTLY as it did in 2008 to-date. Sadly... the same BANKS are engaged but the offset... an alternative to banks and no lawyers invested in big banks to suppress correction, are able to rise to resolve this. In short, history cannot repeat itself and we arrive at the conclusion without a catalyst. You thinking that new immigrants will become savers is very off. No one will trust banks again and as long as we continue to import, there will be no cash to save. If we don't alter course by New Year 2012, We the People- as the United States of America, will not see New Year 2013.
Banks-- gotta go. Regulation and oversight trumps a Federal Reserve Shanking System.
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