Small Business Borrowing SURGES

[usaone]

money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20110630&id=13842435

The government continues to back out and now the private sector is coming in!

[usaone]

And as Flow5 mentioned in his thread, consumers are starting to dip into some of the savings they have accumulated over the last few years. Americans have been saving at a 6% rate over the last 3 to 4 years.

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 30, 2011 8:05:21 GMT -5 usaone said:

And as Flow5 mentioned in his thread, consumers are starting to dip into some of the savings they have accumulated over the last few years. Americans have been saving at a 6% rate over the last 3 to 4 years.

USA WON!!! no<K4U
The long lest of reply on H.8 about how line 10 was in fact very positive.. up 11.1% for the month of May 2011. Great Call..

Also note large Time deposits for May 2011 was up 14.7%.. Bank to bank borrowing was down 19.5%.. They do not trust other banks??

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

Attachments:

[usaone]

Bruce

V shaped recovery is approaching.

Spring 2012!!

[usaone]

Jun 30, 2011 8:38:08 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Jun 30, 2011 8:05:21 GMT -5 usaone said:

And as Flow5 mentioned in his thread, consumers are starting to dip into some of the savings they have accumulated over the last few years. Americans have been saving at a 6% rate over the last 3 to 4 years.

USA WON<K4U
The long lest of reply on H.8 about how line 10 was in fact very positive.. up 11.1% for the month of May 2011. Great Call..

Also note large Time deposits for May 2011 was up 14.7%.. Bank to bank borrowing was down 19.5%.. They do not trust other banks??

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

Or the banks dont need the loans with all the Fed liquidity?

[Virgil Showlion]

From the article:

The index is now at its highest since July 2008, two months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the near derailment of the world financial system.

[decoy409]

Well let's not hope that the IMPLOSION as gone over this morning (turning Lehman into nothing more than a firecracker as opposed to 100x's worse) gets any further out of control.

[usaone]

Jun 30, 2011 10:39:04 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

From the article:

The index is now at its highest since July 2008, two months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the near derailment of the world financial system.

We are at pre recession levels.........how is that bad?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The long lest of reply on H.8 about how line 10 was in fact very positive.. up 11.1% for the month of May 2011. Great Call..

It's nice to have the confirmation now though! Keep the charts and numbers flowing BTI!

Good thread usawon.

[Virgil Showlion]

We are at pre recession levels.........how is that bad?

Heightened borrowing can occur for all kinds of reasons, not all of which are good.

The comment I excerpted raised an eyebrow because it rather pointedly discredits the argument that releveraging means "no danger ahead".

The figures in the article are a positive thing. Let's agree on that, at least.

[bimetalaupt]

Jul 1, 2011 0:50:18 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

We are at pre recession levels.........how is that bad?

Heightened borrowing can occur for all kinds of reasons, not all of which are good.

The comment I excerpted raised an eyebrow because it rather pointedly discredits the argument that releveraging means "no danger ahead".

The figures in the article are a positive thing. Let's agree on that, at least.

VS,
I take that to mean this could also be an example of the "RISK ON...RISK OFF".. Behaviour James Mackintosh from the FT has been taking about that has dominated Financial models FOR the last 24 months...

Great Call.. K4U .. Hope to get with you after the holidays ...etc

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

[smackdown]

I'm doubting many who post here comprehend at all what "new borrowing" means. First off, for any Small Business to borrow money, they must produce Tax Returns (not Financial Statements) from the prior two years. Set the Kool-Aid down and LOOK at SB performance these past THREE years... it is dismal so- likely a negative EBITDA. Next comes-- collateral. A1A on the collateral list is- home equity. Not a pretty picture there either. MOST IMPORTANTLY... all of the significant Small Business banks called the good credit in between 2008 & 2010 and rewrote it in Loan Shark terms (much like GS has done in Greece). The terms are generally 12,15,18 & 24 MONTH renewals.
I wrote many times about this previously. There are an estimated 56 MILLION closet businesses that sustain the out-of-career and under-paid America. It's vital business existing well below what banks can work with. It won't need one penny of hoarded fiat dollar investor cash to grow, it just needs to keep sustaining at the primitive level until the big boxes finally crumble (not too far ahead).
The DUMBEST thing you can do is to convince yourself of a recovery prior to the coming elections in 2012. The Democratic candidates will be under-funded because those who usually contribute are now financially devastated and the Republican candidates are direct-funded by divisive wealth who will try to overwhelm us with mudslinging ads and hollow campaign promises. Both aspects will generate a stagnation across the nation and force big money to dig deeply to remain creepy. A sub-economy will derail Main Street recovery because- even if oligarchies hired all of the 15 million originally unemployed back (after 3.5 years of idleness and guerrilla survival), they won't be jump starting anything anytime soon and may no longer be capable of holding down office positions.
2012--- the bubble finally bursts on Kool-Aid drinkers. There will be civil unrest and true colors from the puppets and puppet-masters. Bank more on disasters than remedies because... as Mitch McConnell so stupidly told us all yesterday... "Republicans will NEVER vote to raise taxes on the rich." And without THEM paying to recover us after stealing the nation into insolvency, We the People would need to and NO ONE is going to vote to RAISE their own taxes. They will however, FIGHT to get rid of Republican cancer blocking the arteries of freedom and REAL democracy.

The closest occurance for recovery ahead is-- 2014 or a full SIX years after the collapse. SIX years without economic prosperity condemns the future generations to many decades of work to repay without reward or... decay. Wise up... the BEST chance to avoid collapse is Closing the Banks, dissolving Incorporation for any entity that had succeeded beyond it's Founder and taking action against inherited and falsely created (financially gained) wealth.

[usaone]

We had a longer period in the 1970's without any trouble.

You continue to overstate the negative and ignore the positive.

Very bad for investing....or life in general.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 1, 2011 7:49:21 GMT -5 usaone said:

We had a longer period in the 1970's without any trouble.

You continue to overstate the negative and ignore the positive.

Very bad for investing....or life in general.

Good points usawon!

VL did you read the article. Black and white

"Borrowing by small U.S. businesses rose at a record pace in May, data released by PayNet Inc on Thursday showed, a sign that economic growth is poised to pick up in coming months."

What this relates to is the graph that BTI posted. Flow had posted it orignially, and said that ALL borrowing had contiuned to decline.. NOt true, there were a couple places that were POSITIVE in may and someone , caught it.

So everyone that is talking about the new borrowing on here is aware what it means, thank you.

As for the rest, again refer to what usawon is saying.

[usaone]

According to ADP, small business did most of the hiring in June!

[bimetalaupt]

Jul 1, 2011 7:28:28 GMT -5 @smackdown said:

I'm doubting many who post here comprehend at all what "new borrowing" means. First off, for any Small Business to borrow money, they must produce Tax Returns (not Financial Statements) from the prior two years. Set the Kool-Aid down and LOOK at SB performance these past THREE years... it is dismal so- likely a negative EBITDA. Next comes-- collateral. A1A on the collateral list is- home equity. Not a pretty picture there either. MOST IMPORTANTLY... all of the significant Small Business banks called the good credit in between 2008 & 2010 and rewrote it in Loan Shark terms (much like GS has done in Greece). The terms are generally 12,15,18 & 24 MONTH renewals.
I wrote many times about this previously. There are an estimated 56 MILLION closet businesses that sustain the out-of-career and under-paid America. It's vital business existing well below what banks can work with. It won't need one penny of hoarded fiat dollar investor cash to grow, it just needs to keep sustaining at the primitive level until the big boxes finally crumble (not too far ahead).
The DUMBEST thing you can do is to convince yourself of a recovery prior to the coming elections in 2012. The Democratic candidates will be under-funded because those who usually contribute are now financially devastated and the Republican candidates are direct-funded by divisive wealth who will try to overwhelm us with mudslinging ads and hollow campaign promises. Both aspects will generate a stagnation across the nation and force big money to dig deeply to remain creepy. A sub-economy will derail Main Street recovery because- even if oligarchies hired all of the 15 million originally unemployed back (after 3.5 years of idleness and guerrilla survival), they won't be jump starting anything anytime soon and may no longer be capable of holding down office positions.
2012--- the bubble finally bursts on Kool-Aid drinkers. There will be civil unrest and true colors from the puppets and puppet-masters. Bank more on disasters than remedies because... as Mitch McConnell so stupidly told us all yesterday... "Republicans will NEVER vote to raise taxes on the rich." And without THEM paying to recover us after stealing the nation into insolvency, We the People would need to and NO ONE is going to vote to RAISE their own taxes. They will however, FIGHT to get rid of Republican cancer blocking the arteries of freedom and REAL democracy.

The closest occurance for recovery ahead is-- 2014 or a full SIX years after the collapse. SIX years without economic prosperity condemns the future generations to many decades of work to repay without reward or... decay. Wise up... the BEST chance to avoid collapse is Closing the Banks, dissolving Incorporation for any entity that had succeeded beyond it's Founder and taking action against inherited and falsely created (financially gained) wealth.

VL,
I do not know where to start.. You keep posting opinions as facts.. As a VC we see a lot of action in this area.. Farming , oil service and On-shoring.. Like the food industry most of the firms are positive in EBITDA .

NOW FOR LOANS.. LIKE NEW TRUCKS AND Equipment.. Things are used up and have to be replaced. Around these areas our banks are doing very well.. Especially the Texas Farm Banks.. Your rants do not make your concentration of through correct.. You have not defended your statements with facts. You must be in the EU as they are having slow growth with no banking support not West Texas... The cotton crop this year looks great and price is very strong. Price of deer corn this year will also be high as most of the area is feeding the deer as well as many know water holes were produced with government money to keep the deer and hogs watered.

Also you have a violation of the CoC.. You needed to correct or I will have to remove this post..
The short version: Treat your fellow posters with courtesy and respect. This means no personal attacks, racial slurs, stalking, etc.


Bi Metal Au Pt

Attachments:

[usaone]

Jul 1, 2011 23:25:41 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Jul 1, 2011 7:49:21 GMT -5 usaone said:

We had a longer period in the 1970's without any trouble.

You continue to overstate the negative and ignore the positive.

Very bad for investing....or life in general.

Good points usawon!

VL did you read the article. Black and white

"Borrowing by small U.S. businesses rose at a record pace in May, data released by PayNet Inc on Thursday showed, a sign that economic growth is poised to pick up in coming months."

What this relates to is the graph that BTI posted. Flow had posted it orignially, and said that ALL borrowing had contiuned to decline.. NOt true, there were a couple places that were POSITIVE in may and someone , caught it.

So everyone that is talking about the new borrowing on here is aware what it means, thank you.

As for the rest, again refer to what usawon is saying.

Thanks for the nice words!

K for A!

[verrip1]

As important, if not more important, than the positives of small businesses borrowing is that banks are lending. There was a fair amount of time after the reserve requirements were raised when banks weren't lending all that much. If that is over, it's an improvement. That's my optimistic view.

Of course the fear factor isn't out of the marketplace yet, so all news is bad news to some. Just like after the Great Depression, when people buried money in coffee cans in the backyard. Some are still in that mode and it may last their entire lifetime.

[kman]

I agree with v. At least they are lending

Another consideration is, that these loans may be credit lines that have served there 3 year term and our now loans or renegotiated loans. How many businesses maxed their credit lines after the market tanked?

[The Virginian]

Actually many like ours had their Lines of Credit suddenly cut off like what American Express did to us. Literally over night we lost $25,000 in Credit. I've heard of some that lost as much as $100,000 in credit lines.
Fortunately for us we didn't need the credit anyway, but, had we been in the middle of an expansion of our business or something it could have easily tipped into Bankruptcy.

Borrowing by most solid businesses now should mean business is expanding again. We are not that lucky as business is still in a downward spiral.

[usaone]

Jul 7, 2011 15:38:28 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

Actually many like ours had their Lines of Credit suddenly cut off like what American Express did to us. Literally over night we lost $25,000 in Credit. I've heard of some that lost as much as $100,000 in credit lines.
Fortunately for us we didn't need the credit anyway, but, had we been in the middle of an expansion of our business or something it could have easily tipped into Bankruptcy.

Borrowing by most solid businesses now should mean business is expanding again. We are not that lucky as business is still in a downward spiral.

Hang in there V were are almost there!!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I agree usawon. There were jobs today that is very important. Like vman was saying above it's good to see the lending because like B and Mr V were saying, it's needed for replacement of equipment and expansion. I'd hit ya with some k usa but lets get b to 100..

[bimetalaupt]

Jul 8, 2011 22:57:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I agree usawon. There were jobs today that is very important. Like vman was saying above it's good to see the lending because like B and Mr V were saying, it's needed for replacement of equipment and expansion. I'd hit ya with some k usa but lets get b to 100..

Thank-you for the 100!!!

I have been working with a friend on a business plan for an estate Production of wine and vinegar from an Texas High Plains Vineyard. The reason I say this is we had looked at this during the 1970's. You would not believe the net difference in support from the State of Texas for the project!! There are new state laws for small farm Winery production and local sales.. For sale only in the state of Texas!!

My point is simple.. The States are supporting development of this and other local farm related industries and it is paying off for them in extra income.. Texas estimates for every dollar of wine sales Texas will receive five dollars in Hotel and Food Plus other travel income.. Like wine events in places like Austin,TX.. It is a win-win-win deal for all as Texas is where it is at in October!!! Merlot with that slow smoked brisket

Bi Metal Au Pt

[smackdown]

"VL,
I do not know where to start.. You keep posting opinions as facts.. As a VC we see a lot of action in this area.. Farming , oil service and On-shoring.. Like the food industry most of the firms are positive in EBITDA."

What does your neighborhood mom and pop say about that? Banks slapped some personnel on with an armchair executive telling them to go out and get some business. That means- cheerleaders out doing the Boopsy thing, promising credit extension to win deposit relationships. The bank will need at least two years of financials and tax returns to ascertain performance. With nearly 100% of cities in every state reeling from non-big box collapse and failure of businesses, neighborhoods and a lack of currency flowing through Main Streets... these happy-types will bring it in and see it get declined or fill portfolios full of blind crud AND... no one has increased deposits. Those figures include financiers who raped and pillaged the markets and took cash that belonged to an economy... OURS.

You don't seem to get it. A FARM is a small business and could have done well, but hiring farm hands is not going to recover us. Re-populating businesses nationwide that can sustain and grow means--- wiping out financier-based terrorism, oligarchies with Too Big To Fail boxes choking cities out of cash and sweeping it to Bensonville or Dallas, leaving minimum wage nets behind. It means TAXING THE HELL out of imports or creating a favored indigenously manufactured product until people get back on their feet. Even then, we will have 7 more years of ticking time bomb explosions with damage that is going to make us take steps backward once and a while.
Don't like negativity? FINANCIERS are not supposed to be counter-cyclical gainers. The fact that they are and in such quantity, tells us how far in reverse we have to drive, just to get to a starting point where we meet up with the normal future again, turn down it and move the whole globe away from this nightmare. TRILLIONS need displacement to get us out of this basement. Sorry, USAONE... you read things and gurgle with joy, that means you are really just an ignorant boy who hasn't lived in a non-cyclical environment. I had the dis-pleasure of being in one when I was your age and beat my head against the wall while exhausting all my naive optimism. Once I dug-in, I salvaged a portfolio and an entire market. Nearly ruined my marriage. Made me incredibly better at what I do for seeing it through instead of quitting. Youth with wealth means-- you cannot possibly finish the journey... you can't even see the road.

[frankq]

" Sorry, USAONE... you read things and gurgle with joy, that means you are really just an ignorant boy who hasn't lived in a non-cyclical environment. I had the dis-pleasure of being in one when I was your age and beat my head against the wall while exhausting all my naive optimism. Once I dug-in, I salvaged a portfolio and an entire market. Nearly ruined my marriage. Made me incredibly better at what I do for seeing it through instead of quitting. Youth with wealth means-- you cannot possibly finish the journey... you can't even see the road."

Oh yeah......We can all see how happy and secure you are for the experience.........
As far as banks lending, yes VL, like it or not, it does happen. It isn't all sun and Mai Tais yet, but we're not breaking out the MREs either. The fact that you resent anybody who profits in this market shows your ignorance. Investment is necessary to fund and grow business. You can't destroy the roots and bitch because you can't smell the roses.....

[frankq]

Jul 9, 2011 10:41:58 GMT -5 frankq said:

" Sorry, USAONE... you read things and gurgle with joy, that means you are really just an ignorant boy who hasn't lived in a non-cyclical environment. I had the dis-pleasure of being in one when I was your age and beat my head against the wall while exhausting all my naive optimism. Once I dug-in, I salvaged a portfolio and an entire market. Nearly ruined my marriage. Made me incredibly better at what I do for seeing it through instead of quitting. Youth with wealth means-- you cannot possibly finish the journey... you can't even see the road."

Oh yeah......We can all see how happy and secure you are for the experience.........
As far as banks lending, yes VL, like it or not, it does happen. It isn't all sun and Mai Tais yet, but we're not breaking out the MREs either. The fact that you resent anybody who profits in this market shows your ignorance. Investment is necessary to fund and grow business. You can't destroy the roots and bitch because you can't smell the roses.....

And seriously, you got up a 5a.m. to post this shit? That's some little piece of Paradise you've carved out for youself.....

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

No doubt Q. V_L your so mad that you didn't even read BTI's point first off. Second.. Your actling like usawon is 18 yrs old. I don't get you point at all, we should all be broke forever that is they way it was ment to be?? Then explain the pyramids and the exodus .. HMM?? Banking and lending go back that far, you know that...

Jul 9, 2011 1:50:25 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Jul 8, 2011 22:57:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I agree usawon. There were jobs today that is very important. Like vman was saying above it's good to see the lending because like B and Mr V were saying, it's needed for replacement of equipment and expansion. I'd hit ya with some k usa but lets get b to 100..

Thank-you for the 100!!!

I have been working with a friend on a business plan for an estate Production of wine and vinegar from an Texas High Plains Vineyard. The reason I say this is we had looked at this during the 1970's. You would not believe the net difference in support from the State of Texas for the project!! There are new state laws for small farm Winery production and local sales.. For sale only in the state of Texas!!

My point is simple.. The States are supporting development of this and other local farm related industries and it is paying off for them in extra income.. Texas estimates for every dollar of wine sales Texas will receive five dollars in Hotel and Food Plus other travel income.. Like wine events in places like Austin,TX.. It is a win-win-win deal for all as Texas is where it is at in October!!! Merlot with that slow smoked brisket

Bi Metal Au Pt

Government working with business to help it flourish because the govent knows it can't create a sustainable economy.. That's what I'm talking about BTI, Free Enterprise!

[bimetalaupt]

V.L.,
You said It means TAXING THE HELL out of imports or creating a favoured indigenously

Sound like to me the first salvo in the next trade war.. Like the one we had in 1933 ...I agree Farming is a Business .. but not that it is small or Mom and Pop.. Modern systems lean to the large and family farms have grown up and are owned by the older generation.. Now are Grandfather and Grand-Bank accounts.. With Grandson now going to Ag Schools like Tarleton University or TAMU... It is Growing plots of Deer corn in Texas and Selling deer hunting to the Houston Business men..
Also many of the large farmers I know.. Esp Cotton Farmers own the local bank or did until Bank of American bought them out at a profit to the holders...

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

Attachments:

[usaone]

Farmers arnt hiring farm hands.

They are buying new equipment and applying new technology to get the most out of each acre with the least amount of cost and the most amount of efficiency.

That's why if you have a college education you have a job.

I'm making money during this recovery, not banging my head against the wall like you did in the 1970's.

An education, common sense and an open mind go a long way.

K for Franky Q!