Population growth/resource consumption

[azphx1972]

The following comment was made on another thread:

The first thing I think of is the fact that we've got a fairly small world and we're filling it up awfully fast.

It made me remember the following lecture that blew my mind away (after watching the entire thing). I'm embedding the first video below, but if you want to see the entire lecture then click on this playlist:



Watch, and then discuss. Did it have a big impact on anyone else's thinking?

[Artemis Windsong]

I watched. This can apply to all areas of life. I prefer the power of compunding interest in my savings account, which is now a thing of the past.

When applied to population growth in 3rd world countries or say China, trouble is brewing. That is why China limits births putting baby girls at risk.

[resolution]

There was actually an article on the front of MSN today about how the Chinese population is rapidly aging due to that policy. www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42794194/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

I watched the video and it did give some food for thought, however I think it left out several balancing factors. In the population example it didn't discuss how the population growth slows or even reverses in societies that become prosperous. Although the world population is still growing it is about half the rate it was in the 60's and the growth rate is still slowing. It has gone from over 2% growth to 1.1%. www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html

In the oil example he didn't discuss how scarcity and higher expenses to reach new oil would raise the price of oil and lower demand. I do believe in the supply curve he was showing in the video, but I think that by the time the end hits the price will be high enough to make alternative energy sources competitive.

[azphx1972]

horatiolegrand - done, thanks for the suggestion.

kari, that was an intriguing article, thanks for sharing. The results of China's population control policies are definitely interesting to say the least. It looks like population growth is slowing in India as well: articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-03-31/news/29366184_1_population-census-report-growth-rate

I have a Chinese friend who is an only child, and most of his childhood friends are only children as well. He told me that the primary school he attended already closed a couple of years ago due to lack of children for enrollment, but in his class there were more girls than boys. He also said that it's policy for doctors to not reveal the gender of the baby during an ultrasound (his mother is a doctor FWIW). And in the cities now, parents prefer to have girls because after getting married it's usually the husband's responsibility to buy the apartment for the couple to live in, and that can be a big chunk of change given how expensive housing has become. Things may be different in rural areas though.

Anyway, I'm glad to hear that population growth is slowing. And given the advancements in hybrid/electrical cars, I have more hope about man's long term prospects for surviving on this planet.

[pig]

Here's the list of the countries with negative natural increase or zero negative increase in population...

Ukraine: 0.8% natural decrease annually; 28% total population decrease by 2050
Russia: -0.6%; -22%
Belarus -0.6%; -12%
Bulgaria -0.5%; -34%
Latvia -0.5%; -23%
Lithuania -0.4%; -15%
Hungary -0.3%; -11%
Romania -0.2%; -29%
Estonia -0.2%; -23%
Moldova -0.2%; -21%
Croatia -0.2%; -14%
Germany -0.2%; -9%
Czech Republic -0.1%; -8%
Japan 0%; -21%
Poland 0%; -17%
Slovakia 0%; -12%
Austria 0%; 8% increase
Italy 0%; -5%
Slovenia 0%; -5%
Greece 0%; -4%

[azphx1972]

That's interesting, Dr. Pig. I had heard about Japan's population decline, but was not aware of those other countries (especially Russia).

[pig]

I think I just read this morning that China hit 1.33 billion.

Yes, I did
www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.329c6cccb28bef19304d6977b2e73a97.3a1&show_article=1

[resolution]

I thought this was an interesting chart showing how the birth rate is related to GDP. As a country's GDP goes up the birth rate trends down. Back when I was in college in the early 90's everyone was concerned about the birth rate in south america, but now that they are doing better financially they have dropped off the picture and people worry about africa instead.

[pig]

Kari, that's an intersting observation and ties in with our eventual downfall. Without the population to impose your will countries will fail. We're already seeing the decline of the western world.

[tskeeter]

This kind of fear mongering has been going on for years. I remember sitting in an Earth Science class in 1973 where the the text and the instructor talked about the fact that the world would be out of oil by about 1993, as well as several other dire predictions. I don't believe that any of those predictions have come true. Why? Because we are capable of changing the course of history. The world didn't run out of oil because we discovered additional supplies of oil (at current production, Prudhoe Bay has a 100 year supply of oil), and because much of the world adopted conservation practices such as driving smaller, more fuel efficient cars, etc. Mankind has adapted to his changing environment for thousands of generations. Our ability to adapt and develop solutions to challenges has not suddenly disappeared. We're going to be around for thousands of generations to come.

[Deleted]

What percentage of births make it to adulthood in the various countries?

[pig]

We're going to be around for thousands of generations to come.

I'll see you in Thunder Dome Skeeter. ;D

[tskeeter]

I thought this was an interesting chart showing how the birth rate is related to GDP.

Interesting chart. But, a high birth rate does correlate to a similar level of population growth. In poor countries, what percentage of of children survive to adulthood? I think the birth rate in poor countries reflects the number of births required to sustain the population that the country can support. As conditions improve and more children survive to adulthood, the birth rate will probably decrease so the overall population remains at a level the country can support. It's simple economics in action, balancing supply (births) and demand (the needs of the population). As the demand for food and shelter for a growing population increase, the supply of births will adjust to prevent the demand for food and shelter from significantly exceeding the availability of food and shelter. Then again, if the demand for food and shelter gets too out of whack with the availability of food and shelter, the population will adjust to the level of availability through starvation, epidemic, war, etc.

[pig]

Not true Skeeter. Almost all countries with high infant mortality rates have a positive population growth rate.

[resolution]

Some of the same countries listed as having the high birth rates are listed as the top population growth in the world. India is all the way down at #86 for growth by percentage.


Rank country (%) Date of Information

1 Zimbabwe 4.31 2011 est.

2 Niger 3.64 2011 est.

3 Uganda 3.58 2011 est.

4 Turks and Caicos Islands 3.49 2011 est.

5 Burundi 3.46 2011 est.

6 United Arab Emirates 3.28 2011 est.

7 Gaza Strip 3.20 2011 est.

8 Ethiopia 3.19 2011 est.

9 Western Sahara 3.10 2011 est.

10 Burkina Faso 3.09 2011 est.

www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2002rank.html?countryCode=xx#xx

[8 Bit WWBG]

Didn't we have a thread a while back about how young women in China are getting as materialistic and shallow as western women because there are so many men competing for them? I think it was called (or contained the quote:) "I'd rather cry in a BMW than laugh on the back of a motorcycle". There was that game show where the one chick asked the guy flat out "do you have money" and he replied "I own three apartments in Shanghai".

[gsbrq]

Wow, that's hardly sexist & misogynistic at all.

[Tred]

OP, thanks for posting the link to these videos...this is the kind of thing that has worried me for a *long* time. Whether or not someone agrees with his numbers/dates, it's tough to dispute the themes: at some point, the world population will hit a maximum, and non-renewable energy consumption will end. Growth and consumption can't continue their current trends ad infinitum.

A while ago, I read an old quote (whose author I can't find) that went something like: "The world can only tolerate so many doublings, whether it's people or grasshoppers."

[tskeeter]

Doc, I meant to communicate that birth rate is a poor indicator of the magnitude of population growth, not that there was no population growth in poor countries, regardless of the birth rates. Taking Niger as an example, the graph shows every woman has in excess of 7 children. Assuming two parents per child, this implies a 350% population growth every generation. However, the statistics Kari provided show that Niger's population is growing at 3.64 percent. Assuming a generation is 20 years of child birthing, increasing the population of two parents by 3.64 percent a year, compounded annually, would yield a population (parents and children) of slightly less than four, not a population of 9 (2 parents and 7 children). Even extending the child birthing period to thirty years only results in 3.6 children per generation, not the 7+ that are born. To me, this is a pretty low correlation between child births and population growth. Apparently a large percentage of the children born in Niger do not survive to adulthood. So, child births in Niger (and other poor countries) appears to be a poor measure of total population growth.

[debtheaven]

This message has been deleted.