Presidential Approval Polling: Trump is El Peor

[djAdvocate]

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

at this point in his presidency, Trump now rates below ALL presidents, including Carter and LBJ, for the first time.

his re-election chances are waning by the day.

[Deleted]

The one that really amazes me is HW, 71.8% at day 951 and doesn't get reelected.

Read my lips and the sax IMO was able to erode that in an amazingly quick timeframe.

[moon/Laura]

Dec 9, 2019 12:03:21 GMT -5 @x said:

Is El Peor back in vogue again. 


I remember when you couldn't use that term on ymam. 



Bush II wasn't it ?

did you run the term through Google translate? El peor, translated, is "the worst". Therefore, it's not name-calling.

[Deleted]

Dec 9, 2019 12:26:06 GMT -5 moon/Laura said:

Dec 9, 2019 12:03:21 GMT -5 @x said:

Is El Peor back in vogue again. 


I remember when you couldn't use that term on ymam. 



Bush II wasn't it ?

did you run the term through Google translate? El peor, translated, is "the worst". Therefore, it's not name-calling.

Post deleted.  


So Laura is El Peor,

is acceptable, not name calling ? 


Just an example.  

[billisonboard]

Dec 9, 2019 12:39:02 GMT -5 @x said:

Dec 9, 2019 12:26:06 GMT -5 moon/Laura said:

did you run the term through Google translate? El peor, translated, is "the worst". Therefore, it's not name-calling.

Post deleted.  


So Laura is El Peor,

is acceptable, not name calling ? 


Just an example.  

Our COC (with emphasis added):

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Posts that:
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When referring to political figures, both past and present, legal names must be used. You may use initials, i.e. HRC, BHO, or George W/George H., and referring to Hillary Clinton as 'Hillary' and Pres. Trump as 'the Donald' (including 'the') are both permissible since these are terms of endearment endorsed by the candidates themselves. Admin reserves the right to except other terms of endearment in future.

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You may freely state your opinion of said figures provided your statements don't violate the ProBoards Terms of Service and aren't excessively vulgar, profane, or repetitive (subject to mod discretion).

Seems clear to me.

[justme]

Not to mention based on the polls he factually is the worst so it's not even an opinion.

[moon/Laura]

1. Trump is (thankfully) not a member here.
2. It wouldn't be name calling, regardless.
3. If it were used to describe a member of this forum, it may or may not be a personal insult, depending on context.

[billisonboard]

Dec 9, 2019 13:51:43 GMT -5 moon/Laura said:

1. Trump is (thankfully) not a member here.
...

Admit it, you would love it if President Trump became a member. You know he would not be able to avoid violating the COC and you would have the pleasure of banning him for life.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 9, 2019 12:39:02 GMT -5 @x said:

Dec 9, 2019 12:26:06 GMT -5 moon/Laura said:

did you run the term through Google translate? El peor, translated, is "the worst". Therefore, it's not name-calling.

Post deleted.  


So Laura is El Peor,

is acceptable, not name calling ? 


Just an example.  

not a good one.

here is a better one:

Laura's Avatar is El Peor (as a thread title, which looks better in All Caps).

unlike the OP, however, that would be an opinion.

[NastyWoman]

Dec 9, 2019 14:30:12 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 9, 2019 13:51:43 GMT -5 moon/Laura said:

1. Trump is (thankfully) not a member here.
...

Admit it, you would love it if President Trump became a member. You know he would not be able to avoid violating the COC and you would have the pleasure of banning him for life.

I believe we should be ♫ Killing 'him' softly♫ by banning him for an hour for every single time he would break the CoC. And we could start betting on how many times he would qualify. The winner would get the  of the day.

[moon/Laura]

djAdvocate, what's wrong with my avatar? 😭 lol

[djAdvocate]

Dec 9, 2019 15:56:45 GMT -5 moon/Laura said:

djAdvocate , what's wrong with my avatar? 😭 lol

nothing, dear.

[dezii]

Dec 9, 2019 14:30:12 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 9, 2019 13:51:43 GMT -5 moon/Laura said:

1. Trump is (thankfully) not a member here.
...

Admit it, you would love it if President Trump became a member. You know he would not be able to avoid violating the COC and you would have the pleasure of banning him for life.

"You know he would not be able to avoid violating the COC and you would have the pleasure of banning him for life. "

...good one....

[Deleted]

Dec 9, 2019 13:51:43 GMT -5 moon/Laura said:

1. Trump is (thankfully) not a member here.
2. It wouldn't be name calling, regardless.
3. If it were used to describe a member of this forum, it may or may not be a personal insult, depending on context.

OK, thank you.    


It was too long ago for me to remember the context of how it was used, when you wouldn't allow it before.

[Deleted]

Dec 9, 2019 13:15:39 GMT -5 justme said:

Not to mention based on the polls he factually is the worst so it's not even an opinion.

So people answering polls aren't giving their opinion ?  

[djAdvocate]

Dec 10, 2019 12:01:23 GMT -5 @x said:

Dec 9, 2019 13:15:39 GMT -5 justme said:

Not to mention based on the polls he factually is the worst so it's not even an opinion.

So people answering polls aren't giving their opinion ?  

sure.  but polls themselves are not opinion, if they are done properly. 

[Deleted]

Dec 10, 2019 12:03:43 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 10, 2019 12:01:23 GMT -5 @x said:

So people answering polls aren't giving their opinion ?  

sure.  but polls themselves are not opinion, if they are done properly. 

'Properly for who' renders your post to meandering fluff. 

[dondub]

Better than your usual trite ‘rebuttals’.

[billisonboard]

Dec 10, 2019 13:22:43 GMT -5 @x said:

Dec 10, 2019 12:03:43 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

sure.  but polls themselves are not opinion, if they are done properly. 

'Properly for who' renders your post to meandering fluff. 

Properly for those who have an understanding of the science of polling.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 10, 2019 13:22:43 GMT -5 @x said:

Dec 10, 2019 12:03:43 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

sure.  but polls themselves are not opinion, if they are done properly. 

'Properly for who' renders your post to meandering fluff. 

not really.

polling is done for a reason. typically the reason is to produce accurate pictures of public opinion. in a democracy, opinion is used to guide politicians to decisions that will be in accord with what the public desires.

in the case of the poll above, Trump would be well advised to center policy around issues that are in the public consciousness. that would include healthcare, which he has pretty much devoted no positive resources toward.

there is a perception among the batshit right that polls are designed by Democrats to make Trump look bad.  the truth is that Trump looks bad all on his own, and the polls accurately reflect that.

so, the response to your post is "properly for anyone interested in public opinion", which is clearly not you or Trump.

[weltschmerz]

Dec 10, 2019 14:38:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 10, 2019 13:22:43 GMT -5 @x said:

'Properly for who' renders your post to meandering fluff. 

not really.

polling is done for a reason. typically the reason is to produce accurate pictures of public opinion. in a democracy, opinion is used to guide politicians to decisions that will be in accord with what the public desires.

in the case of the poll above, Trump would be well advised to center policy around issues that are in the public consciousness. that would include healthcare, which he has pretty much devoted no positive resources toward.

there is a perception among the batshit right that polls are designed by Democrats to make Trump look bad.  the truth is that Trump looks bad all on his own, and the polls accurately reflect that.

so, the response to your post is "properly for anyone interested in public opinion", which is clearly not you or Trump.

Like toilets?

[Deleted]

The Leading Option

According to Surveys.com.au, one major disadvantage of public opinion polling is the tendency of the person taking the survey to go with “the leading option.” The leading option is the answer to a polling question that the researcher suggests is the popular answer while asking someone else. For example, a pollster may tell a person that research has shown that Candidate A is the most common answer when people are asked who they think will win the election between Candidates A, B and C. When the poll question is actually asked, it is phrased, “Among Candidate A, B and C, who do you believe will win the election?” Having already heard what the supposed most popular answer is, those who do not have a strong opinion about the matter are likely to go with Candidate A because most other people have apparently done the same. This leads to inaccurate public opinion and is a way that pollsters with an agenda can help get the results they want.


Sampling Errors

If you’ve seen poll results on the news, there is usually a disclaimer that lets the viewer know that there is a plus or minus 3 percent margin of error. This may occasionally be the case, but there is no solid way to tell just how big the error margin is, according to PollingReport.com. Sampling errors take place in a number of different ways. If a pollster is conducting a sidewalk survey, there is a strong possibility several people will refuse to take part in it. If the poll was about attitudes toward public opinion polls, for example, a very significant portion of the population may not be represented. And, of course, there is outright dishonesty by pollsters. If the poll is driven by an agenda, little stops them from doctoring the results to fit that agenda or wording questions in a way that is likely to provoke a certain response.


classroom.synonym.com/the-disadvantages-of-public-opinion-polling-12081297.html 

[billisonboard]

Dec 11, 2019 13:32:41 GMT -5 @x said:

The Leading Option

According to Surveys.com.au, one major disadvantage of public opinion polling is the tendency of the person taking the survey to go with “the leading option.” The leading option is the answer to a polling question that the researcher suggests is the popular answer while asking someone else. For example, a pollster may tell a person that research has shown that Candidate A is the most common answer when people are asked who they think will win the election between Candidates A, B and C. When the poll question is actually asked, it is phrased, “Among Candidate A, B and C, who do you believe will win the election?” Having already heard what the supposed most popular answer is, those who do not have a strong opinion about the matter are likely to go with Candidate A because most other people have apparently done the same. This leads to inaccurate public opinion and is a way that pollsters with an agenda can help get the results they want.


Sampling Errors

If you’ve seen poll results on the news, there is usually a disclaimer that lets the viewer know that there is a plus or minus 3 percent margin of error. This may occasionally be the case, but there is no solid way to tell just how big the error margin is, according to PollingReport.com. Sampling errors take place in a number of different ways. If a pollster is conducting a sidewalk survey, there is a strong possibility several people will refuse to take part in it. If the poll was about attitudes toward public opinion polls, for example, a very significant portion of the population may not be represented. And, of course, there is outright dishonesty by pollsters. If the poll is driven by an agenda, little stops them from doctoring the results to fit that agenda or wording questions in a way that is likely to provoke a certain response.


classroom.synonym.com/the-disadvantages-of-public-opinion-polling-12081297.html 

Link doesn't work.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 9, 2019 12:12:02 GMT -5 @aj said:

The one that really amazes me is HW, 71.8% at day 951 and doesn't get reelected.

Read my lips and the sax IMO was able to erode that in an amazingly quick timeframe.

kinda tells you what might happen if we had a recession.

Trump would fall into the 20's.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2019 13:32:41 GMT -5 @x said:

The Leading Option

According to Surveys.com.au, one major disadvantage of public opinion polling is the tendency of the person taking the survey to go with “the leading option.”

classroom.synonym.com/the-disadvantages-of-public-opinion-polling-12081297.html 

this doesn't apply to an approval poll.

it DOES, however, apply to a nomination survey.

in an approval poll, there are only two options.

disapproval is second, so even if what you are saying WERE true for it (it is not), it would tend to favor approval.

[billisonboard]

Dec 11, 2019 13:32:41 GMT -5 @x said:

The Leading Option

According to Surveys.com.au, one major disadvantage of public opinion polling is the tendency of the person taking the survey to go with “the leading option.” The leading option is the answer to a polling question that the researcher suggests is the popular answer while asking someone else. For example, a pollster may tell a person that research has shown that Candidate A is the most common answer when people are asked who they think will win the election between Candidates A, B and C. When the poll question is actually asked, it is phrased, “Among Candidate A, B and C, who do you believe will win the election?” Having already heard what the supposed most popular answer is, those who do not have a strong opinion about the matter are likely to go with Candidate A because most other people have apparently done the same. This leads to inaccurate public opinion and is a way that pollsters with an agenda can help get the results they want.


Sampling Errors

If you’ve seen poll results on the news, there is usually a disclaimer that lets the viewer know that there is a plus or minus 3 percent margin of error. This may occasionally be the case, but there is no solid way to tell just how big the error margin is, according to PollingReport.com. Sampling errors take place in a number of different ways. If a pollster is conducting a sidewalk survey, there is a strong possibility several people will refuse to take part in it. If the poll was about attitudes toward public opinion polls, for example, a very significant portion of the population may not be represented. And, of course, there is outright dishonesty by pollsters. If the poll is driven by an agenda, little stops them from doctoring the results to fit that agenda or wording questions in a way that is likely to provoke a certain response.


classroom.synonym.com/the-disadvantages-of-public-opinion-polling-12081297.html 

Although the link doesn't work, it appears that the quoted material is from an educational source. What it says is familiar from the course that I took on polling as an undergrad in Poli Sci. The professor talking about situations like what is described above was always followed with, "So don't do that." Are there unethical people in the world? Yes. Do some do polling? Yes. Are all people in the world unethical? I don't think so? Are all those who do polling? I don't think so.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2019 14:30:38 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 11, 2019 13:32:41 GMT -5 @x said:

The Leading Option

According to Surveys.com.au, one major disadvantage of public opinion polling is the tendency of the person taking the survey to go with “the leading option.” The leading option is the answer to a polling question that the researcher suggests is the popular answer while asking someone else. For example, a pollster may tell a person that research has shown that Candidate A is the most common answer when people are asked who they think will win the election between Candidates A, B and C. When the poll question is actually asked, it is phrased, “Among Candidate A, B and C, who do you believe will win the election?” Having already heard what the supposed most popular answer is, those who do not have a strong opinion about the matter are likely to go with Candidate A because most other people have apparently done the same. This leads to inaccurate public opinion and is a way that pollsters with an agenda can help get the results they want.


Sampling Errors

If you’ve seen poll results on the news, there is usually a disclaimer that lets the viewer know that there is a plus or minus 3 percent margin of error. This may occasionally be the case, but there is no solid way to tell just how big the error margin is, according to PollingReport.com. Sampling errors take place in a number of different ways. If a pollster is conducting a sidewalk survey, there is a strong possibility several people will refuse to take part in it. If the poll was about attitudes toward public opinion polls, for example, a very significant portion of the population may not be represented. And, of course, there is outright dishonesty by pollsters. If the poll is driven by an agenda, little stops them from doctoring the results to fit that agenda or wording questions in a way that is likely to provoke a certain response.


classroom.synonym.com/the-disadvantages-of-public-opinion-polling-12081297.html 

Although the link doesn't work, it appears that the quoted material is from an educational source. What it says is familiar from the course that I took on polling as an undergrad in Poli Sci. The professor talking about situations like what is described above was always followed with, "So don't do that." Are there unethical people in the world? Yes. Do some do polling? Yes. Are all people in the world unethical? I don't think so? Are all those who do polling? I don't think so.

moreover, if you are trying to produce a quality product for sale (most pollsters are), you have already taken that class.

kwim?

[Deleted]

Dec 11, 2019 14:30:38 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 11, 2019 13:32:41 GMT -5 @x said:

The Leading Option

According to Surveys.com.au, one major disadvantage of public opinion polling is the tendency of the person taking the survey to go with “the leading option.” The leading option is the answer to a polling question that the researcher suggests is the popular answer while asking someone else. For example, a pollster may tell a person that research has shown that Candidate A is the most common answer when people are asked who they think will win the election between Candidates A, B and C. When the poll question is actually asked, it is phrased, “Among Candidate A, B and C, who do you believe will win the election?” Having already heard what the supposed most popular answer is, those who do not have a strong opinion about the matter are likely to go with Candidate A because most other people have apparently done the same. This leads to inaccurate public opinion and is a way that pollsters with an agenda can help get the results they want.


Sampling Errors

If you’ve seen poll results on the news, there is usually a disclaimer that lets the viewer know that there is a plus or minus 3 percent margin of error. This may occasionally be the case, but there is no solid way to tell just how big the error margin is, according to PollingReport.com. Sampling errors take place in a number of different ways. If a pollster is conducting a sidewalk survey, there is a strong possibility several people will refuse to take part in it. If the poll was about attitudes toward public opinion polls, for example, a very significant portion of the population may not be represented. And, of course, there is outright dishonesty by pollsters. If the poll is driven by an agenda, little stops them from doctoring the results to fit that agenda or wording questions in a way that is likely to provoke a certain response.


classroom.synonym.com/the-disadvantages-of-public-opinion-polling-12081297.html 

Although the link doesn't work, it appears that the quoted material is from an educational source. What it says is familiar from the course that I took on polling as an undergrad in Poli Sci. The professor talking about situations like what is described above was always followed with, "So don't do that." Are there unethical people in the world? Yes. Do some do polling? Yes. Are all people in the world unethical? I don't think so? Are all those who do polling? I don't think so.

I view polls as looking at an answer to what people are thinking/doing at that time. 

Small % of unethical people in all walks of life, I took as a given

[billisonboard]

Dec 12, 2019 8:58:21 GMT -5 @x said:

...
I view polls as looking at an answer to what people are thinking/doing at that time. 

Small % of unethical people in all walks of life, I took as a given

Considering that polls ask people to answer questions about what they are thing/doing and they do it at a point in time, I would say you view of them is a good reflection of reality.

Large % of ethical people in all walks of life (including pollsters), I take as a given