Brain Bolt

[weltschmerz]

Vancouver General Hospital doctors are now able to monitor brain function in real time thanks to new “brain bolt” technology placed inside a patient’s skull.



Approximately 160,000 Canadians sustain brain injuries from car accidents and falls each year and that number is rising. According to the advocacy group Brain Injury Canada, over a million Canadians live with the devastating effects which can include being unable to speak, walk or live on their own.



But the Vancouver Hospital has become a world leader in traumatic brain treatment using cutting-edge technology to help patients like Mike Severloh beat those grim odds.
As part of the hospital’s new brain injury monitoring program, surgeons drilled a half-centimetre hole into Severloh’s skull to place a device nicknamed the “brain bolt."

Studies show head trauma patients with this kind of monitoring are more than twice as likely to have a full recovery and avoid severe disabilities. In fact, doctors attribute the “brain bolt” to the miraculous recovery of Severloh and others. 

www.ctvnews.ca/health/vancouver-hospital-s-brain-bolt-technology-shows-real-time-brain-activity-1.4330194

[Virgil Showlion]

I thought for sure you'd be talking about Usain Bolt's slower, smarter younger brother.

[Virgil Showlion]

Approximately 160,000 Canadians sustain brain injuries from car accidents and falls each year and that number is rising. According to the advocacy group Brain Injury Canada, over a million Canadians live with the devastating effects which can include being unable to speak, walk or live on their own.

Let's take a look at this.

160,000 "brain injuries from car accidents and falls each year". Canadian population is 36.6 million. Assume car accidents and falls are largely uncorrelated events, hence a 0.44% probability of brain injury per year for the average citizen.

Average Canadian lifespan is about 80 years. Assume risk of brain injury is distributed evenly over those years. Hence by the time the average Canadian dies, the probability they've suffered at least one brain injury from a car accident or a fall is 1-(1-0.0044)⁸⁰ = 29.6%.

It begs the question of what the is article is calling "brain injuries" in the first figure. Clearly not the same thing as they are when they say "over a million Canadians live with the devastating effects".

A 0.44% annual probability is small enough that, given our other assumptions and data, the probability of a Canadian selected at random having suffered at least one brain injury from a car accident or a fall is approximately 1/2 their lifetime probability, or 14.8%, and hence 36.6 · 14.8% = 5.4 million Canadians will presently have sustained such injuries. If we generously assume that "over a million" means 1.2 million, the kinds of brain injuries they're talking about in the 160,000 figure will only prove to have "devastating effects" in 1.2/5.4 = 22.1% (roughly 1/5) of cases.

They're obviously talking about more than a simple blow to the head from a fall, since it stands to reason ~100% of Canadians have gone arse over teakettle and hit their head on something at least once by the time they kick the bucket. I know I've filled my quota several times over already.

But if they're talking about accidents and falls leading to full-on concussions, I'd have thought a lot more than 1/5 of such cases would lead to "devastating effects" (at least based on what I would consider to be 'devastating'). If my suspicions are correct, then, assuming the data are accurate, what they're calling "brain injuries" is something more serious than a run-of-the-mill blow to the head but less serious than a full-on concussion. It makes me curious as to what specifically they consider a "brain injury" to be. Number of hospitalizations? Survey data?

[finnime]

Appreciate the math calculations and agree that definitions mean everything. It is clear that traumatic brain injury is not so uncommon as to be of little concern to the average Canadian or other North American. And this technology is giving a real chance to people who otherwise would not be able to live full lives. The costs at $10,000 per device are surprisingly small, considering the benefit. Remarkable.

[weltschmerz]

Mar 12, 2019 8:16:29 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Approximately 160,000 Canadians sustain brain injuries from car accidents and falls each year and that number is rising. According to the advocacy group Brain Injury Canada, over a million Canadians live with the devastating effects which can include being unable to speak, walk or live on their own.

Let's take a look at this.

160,000 "brain injuries from car accidents and falls each year". Canadian population is 36.6 million. Assume car accidents and falls are largely uncorrelated events, hence a 0.44% probability of brain injury per year for the average citizen.

Average Canadian lifespan is about 80 years. Assume risk of brain injury is distributed evenly over those years. Hence by the time the average Canadian dies, the probability they've suffered at least one brain injury from a car accident or a fall is 1-(1-0.0044)⁸⁰ = 29.6%.

It begs the question of what the is article is calling "brain injuries" in the first figure. Clearly not the same thing as they are when they say "over a million Canadians live with the devastating effects".

A 0.44% annual probability is small enough that, given our other assumptions and data, the probability of a Canadian selected at random having suffered at least one brain injury from a car accident or a fall is approximately 1/2 their lifetime probability, or 14.8%, and hence 36.6 · 14.8% = 5.4 million Canadians will presently have sustained such injuries. If we generously assume that "over a million" means 1.2 million, the kinds of brain injuries they're talking about in the 160,000 figure will only prove to have "devastating effects" in 1.2/5.4 = 22.1% (roughly 1/5) of cases.

They're obviously talking about more than a simple blow to the head from a fall, since it stands to reason ~100% of Canadians have gone arse over teakettle and hit their head on something at least once by the time they kick the bucket. I know I've filled my quota several times over already.

But if they're talking about accidents and falls leading to full-on concussions, I'd have thought a lot more than 1/5 of such cases would lead to "devastating effects" (at least based on what I would consider to be 'devastating'). If my suspicions are correct, then, assuming the data are accurate, what they're calling "brain injuries" is something more serious than a run-of-the-mill blow to the head but less serious than a full-on concussion. It makes me curious as to what specifically they consider a "brain injury" to be. Number of hospitalizations? Survey data?

Another novel from you.

Why don't you call them and ask them?

[Tiny]

Mar 12, 2019 8:16:29 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

  It makes me curious as to what specifically they consider a "brain injury" to be.  

 Huh.  I read the article and it seemed to me they were talking about the type of "brain injury" that gets you in the hospital and your worried loved ones  are told you might not walk/talk again and/or may need round the clock care for the rest of your life.  You know  a traumatic head injury.   Do they even call it that?      I didn't assume they meant a "concussion". 

I didn't assume they were using the "brain bolt" on people who more or less walked themselves into the ER with a mild head injury.  

[thyme4change]

I wonder if this could be adapted to help stroke patients recover. These kinds of technological advances often lead to more technological advances, which increases the number of people it can help.

[Virgil Showlion]

Mar 12, 2019 15:14:32 GMT -5 Tiny said:

I read the article and it seemed to me they were talking about the type of "brain injury" that gets you in the hospital and your worried loved ones  are told you might not walk/talk again and/or may need round the clock care for the rest of your life.  You know  a traumatic head injury.

And you think 30% of Canadians wind up in such a situation during their lifetimes?

I mean we play a lot of hockey, but...

(In all seriousness: I'm wondering what kinds of brain injuries the statistics apply to, not the treatment being documented in the article.)