Trump Hits 60% Disapproval in Gallup Poll

[djAdvocate]

yeah, it is just one poll.

this is a record low for him in Gallup, and a 10% increase in disapproval in the last (5) weeks.

he has previously hit this same 60% number in:

USA Today

ABC

Reuters- 3x

he has also polled at 61% disapproval in IBD and Reuters.

and he polled once at 63% in Pew

i am thinking that this is probably the beginning of a bad round of numbers for him, and i base this on a lot of factors, but i am interested in what others think:

do you think this is an aberration, and he will go right back to his standard 55/45 disapproval?

or do you think this is the beginning of a Nixon/Carter/Truman like downtrend for him?

news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx?version=print

[dondub]

Downtrend

[dondub]

I still have one slim thread of hope for America.

[PK Bucko]

I am dubious of polling data as it concerns Trump. Trump has shown us all at least one thing. Polling be damned when it comes to his success and popularity.

The scuffle with the moron from CNN didn't do him any good, but I don't know that it would sway opinion too wildly either. Meaning that those who didn't like him would still not like him and visa versa.

Unless we get another General Motors bomb dropped on us sometime soon, I'd say aberration as an answer to your question. 

[pooks]

Looks like normal fluctuation and he will bounce back up.  Barring an economic downturn, I think his core support is around 43%.  

[djAdvocate]

Nov 27, 2018 15:09:32 GMT -5 PK Bucko said:

I am dubious of polling data as it concerns Trump. Trump has shown us all at least one thing. Polling be damned when it comes to his success and popularity.

i think you mean "skeptical" rather than "dubious".  you think the polling is dubious.

i think that Gallup is an outlier.  but i also think Rasmussen is an outlier.  if you add the two together, you get a fairly accurate image of what is going on.

i will wait for some more opinion on this before i chime in.  thanks for your contribution.

for the record, i don't think Trump has been very successful, and it is precisely because he doesn't have much political capital to spend, except with his own party.  after January, he will have even less to spend, as he can't expect ANY support from Democrats for his populist agenda.

[bean29]

Oops.  Looks like I posted to wrong thread.

I'm part of the 60% though!

[billisonboard]

If Democratic House investigations turn up only petty issues and they attempt to overplay them, it will go back up.  If they find more significant things and avoid too much "neener, neener"ing, it won't be pretty for him.

[dondub]

Then there is Mueller....

[Tennesseer]

"i am thinking that this is probably the beginning of a bad round of numbers for him, and i base this on a lot of factors, but i am interested in what others think:

do you think this is an aberration, and he will go right back to his standard 55/45 disapproval?
or do you think this is the beginning of a Nixon/Carter/Truman like downtrend for him?"

I believe the poll results show a true reading of the country.  As the poll was taken after the election and no elections are in the near future, there is no reason for the people polled not to express their actual opinion of the president and skew the poll results. 

[djAdvocate]

Nov 27, 2018 15:01:31 GMT -5 dondub said:

I still have one slim thread of hope for America.

that November 2016 was the nadir?

[happyhoix]

  Trump backers do seem to be stuck at a pretty solid 40%. I'm not sure his disapproval ratings could go over 60%.

That said, there are a number of very bad things that might happen. The economy might suddenly tank significantly, like economists have been warned it would do, and presidents always get blamed when that happens, right or wrong. The Mueller report may expose what Giuliani calls 'very bad things, politically' for Trump, which could also upset the cart. Or some random, but politically detrimental event could happen - one of his family member or cabinet members could get caught in significant corruption expose, the pee tape might suddenly show up, or Trump could be caught on a hot mike saying something very damning to Putin. With Trump, you never really know what might happen.

So I'll make a cautious prediction - his disapproval ratings will hover around 60%, unless one of the above scenarios happen, then all bets are off.

[zibazinski]

If he lets those caravan people in, he’s toast. 

[djAdvocate]

he's probably toast, anyway.

[billisonboard]

Nov 28, 2018 18:16:03 GMT -5 zibazinski said:

If he lets those caravan people in, he’s toast. 

There is no way he will let them in. The Democrats might. The courts might. The media might create an environment in which it is impossible to keep them out. But rest assured that there is no way that President Donald Trump will let them in.

[dezii]

Nov 27, 2018 15:10:14 GMT -5 pooks said:

Looks like normal fluctuation and he will bounce back up.  Barring an economic downturn, I think his core support is around 43%.  

My personal feelings of the man, and I admit it will be expected...the man is evil...completely...inequivalently evil.  

[zibazinski]

[haapai]

It's a pretty sharp week-to-week increase, but I can't guarantee that you aren't engaged in wishful thinking.

The way that the spread narrowed after hitting similar highs in January and February of this year is quite notable.  I don't know how much political capital he burned through getting those numbers down, so I can't tell you whether he can repeat it again. 

[djAdvocate]

Nov 28, 2018 20:32:54 GMT -5 haapai said:

It's a pretty sharp week-to-week increase, but I can't guarantee that you aren't engaged in wishful thinking.

The way that the spread narrowed after hitting similar highs in January and February of this year is quite notable.  I don't know how much political capital he burned through getting those numbers down, so I can't tell you whether he can repeat it again. 

when the gap narrowed, what happened is that the DISAPPROVAL number fell, but the approval number really didn't go up much.  in other words, a certain % of the public gave him the benefit of the doubt.  now, that doubting is over, so we are seeing about a 22% gap between disapproval and approval in some of the worst surveys again. 

it is interesting to watch this stuff.  there is a clear shift from 2016, and we will see what that means in 2020.

[haapai]

I am staring at the graph that headlines the link in the OP and I'm not seeing what you are seeing.  The undecideds and neutrals don't show up well.  Are you looking at something that has been modified to highlight the fluctuations in the percentage of folks refusing to answer "approve" or "disapprove"? 

My glasses are badly scratched, but even if they weren't, I don't think that I'd be able to discern what you are claiming has happened by staring at that long-term approval/disapproval data chart.  The two lines are not exactly mirror images, but I don't have enough visual acuity to note when the movements are not entirely reciprocal. 

[haapai]

FWIW, if the folks declining to answer either "approve" or "disapprove" were represented separately (probably via a bar representing them located between the "approve" and "disapprove" lines), what you are arguing would probably be a lot easier to visualize. 

I'm kinda at a loss as to how to color that bar though.  Purple doesn't seem right, nor does light pink.  Light greens and yellows are suitably neutral but don't show up very well.  A solid black bar between the two lines will be ugly as sin.  Perhaps a light grey floater would get the point across?

[happyhoix]

Nov 28, 2018 18:45:16 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Nov 28, 2018 18:16:03 GMT -5 zibazinski said:

If he lets those caravan people in, he’s toast. 

There is no way he will let them in. The Democrats might. The courts might. The media might create an environment in which it is impossible to keep them out. But rest assured that there is no way that President Donald Trump will let them in.

Trump has decided that immigration and The Wall are politically beneficial topics for him, so he'll hammer on that issue for all he's worth, even shutting down government if he doesn't get the 5 b he wants for the wall construction. He thinks the more he goes after that, the more popular he will be with his base.

I don't think the actual idea of keeping illegals out is all that important to him (after all, he hires foreign guest workers at his resorts, and hired a bunch of cheap Polish workers to work on his first building, so he isn't opposed to cheap foreign labor). It's the public fight for a symbolic wall (that all the experts agree would be a ridiculous waste of resources) that Trump thinks is stoking his base. The congressional GOPers disagree and think shutting down government would be a bad idea.

It will be interesting to see who wins that argument. If Trump loses, it will show that the GOP isn't afraid of him anymore. If Trump wins and he gets to shut down the government, I think it could damage his standing with his faithful followers.

[billisonboard]

Nov 29, 2018 7:21:38 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

... The congressional GOPers disagree and think shutting down government would be a bad idea.

It will be interesting to see who wins that argument. If Trump loses, it will show that the GOP isn't afraid of him anymore. If Trump wins and he gets to shut down the government, I think it could damage his standing with his faithful followers.

Government could shut down in two ways. Congress doesn't pass a spending bill by December 7th or they pass one and President Trump vetoes it. I don't think they will fall to put a bill on his desk.  That would mean we have this:

Options:
1) Congress authorizes $5b for a wall, no veto, no government shutdown
2) Congress authorizes significantly less, no veto, no government shutdown
3) Congress authorizes significantly less, veto, government shutdown
4) Congress authorizes nothing for a wall, no veto, no government shutdown
5) Congress authorizes nothing for a wall, veto, government shutdown

1 is an obvious Trump win with his base. 4 would be an obvious Trump loss. Are 2, 3, or 5 wins or losses for him? I think neither 3 nor 5 would hurt him with his base. 2 he would have to spin hard, which he is fully capable of doing, or he would lose a little base support.

2 would have no significant impact on his general support. 1 could be interesting to see if the deficit spending side of it would hurt him generally. 4 would also be interesting on how he could possibly spin it for it to be a positive with anyone. I think 5 he could spin in a way not to be hurt too much. 3 I think would be the worst case for him with those outside his base.

[dezii]

Nov 29, 2018 9:50:45 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Nov 29, 2018 7:21:38 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

... The congressional GOPers disagree and think shutting down government would be a bad idea.

It will be interesting to see who wins that argument. If Trump loses, it will show that the GOP isn't afraid of him anymore. If Trump wins and he gets to shut down the government, I think it could damage his standing with his faithful followers.

Government could shut down in two ways. Congress doesn't pass a spending bill by December 7th or they pass one and President Trump vetoes it. I don't think they will fall to put a bill on his desk.  That would mean we have this:

Options:
1) Congress authorizes $5b for a wall, no veto, no government shutdown
2) Congress authorizes significantly less, no veto, no government shutdown
3) Congress authorizes significantly less, veto, government shutdown
4) Congress authorizes nothing for a wall, no veto, no government shutdown
5) Congress authorizes nothing for a wall, veto, government shutdown

1 is an obvious Trump win with his base. 4 would be an obvious Trump loss. Are 2, 3, or 5 wins or losses for him? I think neither 3 nor 5 would hurt him with his base. 2 he would have to spin hard, which he is fully capable of doing, or he would lose a little base support.

2 would have no significant impact on his general support. 1 could be interesting to see if the deficit spending side of it would hurt him generally. 4 would also be interesting on how he could possibly spin it for it to be a positive with anyone. I think 5 he could spin in a way not to be hurt too much. 3 I think would be the worst case for him with those outside his base.

The man has made the choice, almost from day one in office, to be POTUS to those who inequivalently support him....his base.

For the rest of the population...little interest in and thus the quandary….These recently done mid term elections showed a over all distrust of the man and his paranoia....truly a blue wave has happened no matter what kind of victory he claims...

Congress still controls the purse strings and if he does shut down the Government as he is suggesting he might if they don't fund his wall....I believe he will see for the first time a wavering of support even from his base....they being especially vulnerable and dependent  for government social services....thinking those workers in West Virginia and similar folks in the mid west and South.

[djAdvocate]

ok, it doesn't look like i am going to get any more comments, so here is WHY i think this is the beginning of the end for him.

1) campaign season is over.  Trump was always better at campaigning than anything else he did.  therefore, his opportunity to be effective is largely over.

2) he lost the House.  that is going to make his life miserable.  count on that.  and if you are thinking "well, if the House screws him over, he will use that against them" think again.  voters expect the president to be able to get things done, PERIOD.  the reason Obama is never going to be thought of as the greatest president ever is that he was unable to get congress to work with him.  whose fault it is is for HISTORIANS to examine.  but the voters didn't like it.  and they won't like it when Trump is ineffective, either.

3) Mueller.  this is a lose-lose for him.  no matter what he does, it ends badly for him.

4) the economy.  i know some conservatives think it is going to heat up for the next 20 years, but that is very unlikely, imo.  the more likely thing is a moderate to severe recession, and fairly soon.

this is why i think he is toast.  if this weren't such a slow moving ship, he would be toast already.  within a year, i think is numbers will fall into the low 30's.

[happyhoix]

Humm, speaking of Mueller, Cohen just signed a plea deal with him stating he lied about the Russian Trump Tower project - initially he (and Trump, too) said it was dead in by 2016, but Cohen admitted he lied about that, that negotiations went on well into the campaign, and that he lied out of loyalty to 'person #1' in order to protect the interests of 'person #1.'

Of course, Trump said he had nothing to do with Cohen, that Cohen is a very weak person who would say anything to get himself out of trouble.

Yeah, I don't see Trump's disapproval rating dropping anytime soon.  

[dezii]

Nov 29, 2018 11:56:52 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

ok, it doesn't look like i am going to get any more comments, so here is WHY i think this is the beginning of the end for him.

1) campaign season is over.  Trump was always better at campaigning than anything else he did.  therefore, his opportunity to be effective is largely over.

2) he lost the House.  that is going to make his life miserable.  count on that.  and if you are thinking "well, if the House screws him over, he will use that against them" think again.  voters expect the president to be able to get things done, PERIOD.  the reason Obama is never going to be thought of as the greatest president ever is that he was unable to get congress to work with him.  whose fault it is is for HISTORIANS to examine.  but the voters didn't like it.  and they won't like it when Trump is ineffective, either.

3) Mueller.  this is a lose-lose for him.  no matter what he does, it ends badly for him.

4) the economy.  i know some conservatives think it is going to heat up for the next 20 years, but that is very unlikely, imo.  the more likely think is a moderate to severe recession, and fairly soon.

this is why i think he is toast.  if this weren't such a slow moving ship, he would be toast already.  within a year, i think is numbers will fall into the low 30's.

Kind of what I predicted...his loyal base, as the tough times hit them, a big erosion of support from his base, only ones who were supporting him...no where to go but down and out...Just wonder who he will be blaming as he leaves...Obama, Hillery, Bush, Bill...the pubs themselves? Never ever his fault.... …….

[happyhoix]

Nov 29, 2018 15:02:43 GMT -5 dezii said:

Nov 29, 2018 11:56:52 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

ok, it doesn't look like i am going to get any more comments, so here is WHY i think this is the beginning of the end for him.

1) campaign season is over.  Trump was always better at campaigning than anything else he did.  therefore, his opportunity to be effective is largely over.

2) he lost the House.  that is going to make his life miserable.  count on that.  and if you are thinking "well, if the House screws him over, he will use that against them" think again.  voters expect the president to be able to get things done, PERIOD.  the reason Obama is never going to be thought of as the greatest president ever is that he was unable to get congress to work with him.  whose fault it is is for HISTORIANS to examine.  but the voters didn't like it.  and they won't like it when Trump is ineffective, either.

3) Mueller.  this is a lose-lose for him.  no matter what he does, it ends badly for him.

4) the economy.  i know some conservatives think it is going to heat up for the next 20 years, but that is very unlikely, imo.  the more likely think is a moderate to severe recession, and fairly soon.

this is why i think he is toast.  if this weren't such a slow moving ship, he would be toast already.  within a year, i think is numbers will fall into the low 30's.

Kind of what I predicted...his loyal base, as the tough times hit them, a big erosion of support from his base, only ones who were supporting him...no where to go but down and out...Just wonder who he will be blaming as he leaves...Obama, Hillery, Bush, Bill...the pubs themselves? Never ever his fault.... …….

Well, if we go by his history, he will blame his aids, who didn't give him the right information, and the dems and liberal media, who lied about him, and those members of the GOP who didn't back him, and incompetent appointments he made like Rosenstein and Sessions, who failed to act in Trump's best interest, and the DOJ who is a part of the Dark Hole conspiracy against him.

Plenty of people to spread the blame around to - except not to him. Never to him.