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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2018 14:54:14 GMT -5
so, do you think Abrams will win? or are you so enthralled with it, you dare not speak? Here is a good article I read this morning on the Georgia race. personalliberty.com/georgia-governors-race-look-lot-like-2020-presidential-contest/Another particularily interesting Governor's race is in Illinois, Rauner versus Pritzker, multi millionaires duking it out, and polar opposites. Just not sure enough voters will come out in either race to be able to actually measure whether it is a test of Trump's election viability in 2020 Please let Rauner win.... it doesn’t look good right now though, a Pritzker win hands back control of IL to Michael Madigan which will give him just enough time to completely bankrupt the state and and continue to enrich his Property Tax appeal specializing law firm. I loathe the Illinois Dems as much as the National GOP at this point.
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kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Jul 31, 2018 15:44:09 GMT -5
so, do you think Abrams will win? or are you so enthralled with it, you dare not speak? I hope Abrams will win, but I know with Brian Kemp our voting machines are not safe & that he cannot be trusted to not mess with them. I plan to vote early so I can do it by paper ballot. Locally, I'm hearing stirrings that Kemp is not well liked at all...especially by many farmers in the area. I'll be voting for Abrams for sure...at my local polling place just up the road, within walking distance.
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steff
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Post by steff on Jul 31, 2018 15:48:08 GMT -5
I hope Abrams will win, but I know with Brian Kemp our voting machines are not safe & that he cannot be trusted to not mess with them. I plan to vote early so I can do it by paper ballot. Locally, I'm hearing stirrings that Kemp is not well liked at all...especially by many farmers in the area. I'll be voting for Abrams for sure...at my local polling place just up the road, within walking distance. I don't doubt that Kemp isn't well liked over all, but he's gone out of his way as SOS to NOT protect our voting machines. Along with the voting roll purges & shredding of evidence I just don't trust him when it comes to having a fair, secure election. It's why I'm going to vote early so I can have a paper ballot. I check my voters registration monthly to make sure I haven't "accidentally" been purged.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 31, 2018 21:49:39 GMT -5
Here is a good article I read this morning on the Georgia race. personalliberty.com/georgia-governors-race-look-lot-like-2020-presidential-contest/Another particularily interesting Governor's race is in Illinois, Rauner versus Pritzker, multi millionaires duking it out, and polar opposites. Just not sure enough voters will come out in either race to be able to actually measure whether it is a test of Trump's election viability in 2020 Please let Rauner win.... it doesn’t look good right now though, a Pritzker win hands back control of IL to Michael Madigan which will give him just enough time to completely bankrupt the state and and continue to enrich his Property Tax appeal specializing law firm. I loathe the Illinois Dems as much as the National GOP at this point. those are both large, diverse populations. i would imagine that if exit polling were done the expensive way (lots of canvassing, and TONS of sampling) you could learn a LOT from those two races.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 31, 2018 21:51:13 GMT -5
Locally, I'm hearing stirrings that Kemp is not well liked at all...especially by many farmers in the area. I'll be voting for Abrams for sure...at my local polling place just up the road, within walking distance. I don't doubt that Kemp isn't well liked over all, but he's gone out of his way as SOS to NOT protect our voting machines. Along with the voting roll purges & shredding of evidence I just don't trust him when it comes to having a fair, secure election. It's why I'm going to vote early so I can have a paper ballot. I check my voters registration monthly to make sure I haven't "accidentally" been purged. i think this is in some ways one of the most interesting races in the country. how much does Kemp identify and side with Trump?
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jul 31, 2018 23:29:58 GMT -5
Here is a good article I read this morning on the Georgia race. personalliberty.com/georgia-governors-race-look-lot-like-2020-presidential-contest/Another particularily interesting Governor's race is in Illinois, Rauner versus Pritzker, multi millionaires duking it out, and polar opposites. Just not sure enough voters will come out in either race to be able to actually measure whether it is a test of Trump's election viability in 2020 Please let Rauner win.... it doesn’t look good right now though, a Pritzker win hands back control of IL to Michael Madigan which will give him just enough time to completely bankrupt the state and and continue to enrich his Property Tax appeal specializing law firm. I loathe the Illinois Dems as much as the National GOP at this point. I used to always vote gop state and local.... But frankly, I don't think I can ever vote gop again.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 1, 2018 1:04:29 GMT -5
wowzers.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 1, 2018 8:46:49 GMT -5
I don't doubt that Kemp isn't well liked over all, but he's gone out of his way as SOS to NOT protect our voting machines. Along with the voting roll purges & shredding of evidence I just don't trust him when it comes to having a fair, secure election. It's why I'm going to vote early so I can have a paper ballot. I check my voters registration monthly to make sure I haven't "accidentally" been purged. i think this is in some ways one of the most interesting races in the country. how much does Kemp identify and side with Trump?
Kemp has aligned himself with Trump now, although he did not support him in 2016 - the New Yorker has an interesting article about the primary race between Kemp and his opponent Cagle, including releasing some audio tapes where Cagle talked some shit about how the GA race had become about who has the biggest gun, the biggest truck, and who could be the craziest.
www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-a-secret-recording-swung-the-republican-gubernatorial-primary-in-georgia
I would consider him what we call 'a good ole boy.'
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Aug 2, 2018 14:05:04 GMT -5
Here is a good article I read this morning on the Georgia race. personalliberty.com/georgia-governors-race-look-lot-like-2020-presidential-contest/Another particularily interesting Governor's race is in Illinois, Rauner versus Pritzker, multi millionaires duking it out, and polar opposites. Just not sure enough voters will come out in either race to be able to actually measure whether it is a test of Trump's election viability in 2020 Please let Rauner win.... it doesn’t look good right now though, a Pritzker win hands back control of IL to Michael Madigan which will give him just enough time to completely bankrupt the state and and continue to enrich his Property Tax appeal specializing law firm. I loathe the Illinois Dems as much as the National GOP at this point. Doesn't matter. Illinois is circling the drain. Rauner's (R) label is meaningless. He's as big a sack of shit as the Democrat. Who gives a shit anymore what happens in Illinois? It's like hand-wringing over CA, or NY. They're gone. Fuck 'em.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 2, 2018 14:07:04 GMT -5
Please let Rauner win.... it doesn’t look good right now though, a Pritzker win hands back control of IL to Michael Madigan which will give him just enough time to completely bankrupt the state and and continue to enrich his Property Tax appeal specializing law firm. I loathe the Illinois Dems as much as the National GOP at this point. Doesn't matter. Illinois is circling the drain. Rauner's (R) label is meaningless. He's as big a sack of shit as the Democrat. Who gives a shit anymore what happens in Illinois? It's like hand-wringing over CA, or NY. They're gone. Fuck 'em. Yeah fuck them, and the poor.
The number of fellow Americans we should care about shrinks daily on this board.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2018 14:13:54 GMT -5
Please let Rauner win.... it doesn’t look good right now though, a Pritzker win hands back control of IL to Michael Madigan which will give him just enough time to completely bankrupt the state and and continue to enrich his Property Tax appeal specializing law firm. I loathe the Illinois Dems as much as the National GOP at this point. Doesn't matter. Illinois is circling the drain. Rauner's (R) label is meaningless. He's as big a sack of shit as the Democrat. Who gives a shit anymore what happens in Illinois? It's like hand-wringing over CA, or NY. They're gone. Fuck 'em. I don’t think he has done much but it is better than giving Madigan uncontested power yet again. How he is allowed to make laws regarding property taxes yet profit from their appeals is beyond me. I do agree with you IL is circling the drain, I do predict it will be the first state to go bankrupt, I have a lot of Civil Service friends that are gonna take a bath on their pensions.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Aug 2, 2018 14:14:54 GMT -5
Doesn't matter. Illinois is circling the drain. Rauner's (R) label is meaningless. He's as big a sack of shit as the Democrat. Who gives a shit anymore what happens in Illinois? It's like hand-wringing over CA, or NY. They're gone. Fuck 'em. Yeah fuck them, and the poor.
The number of fellow Americans we should care about shrinks daily on this board.
Nah. For some, these folks may deserve nothing other than a flippant wave of the hand. I don't think that's true for most people, however, here - or elsewhere.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 2, 2018 14:18:13 GMT -5
Yeah fuck them, and the poor.
The number of fellow Americans we should care about shrinks daily on this board.
Nah. For some, these folks may deserve nothing other than a flippant wave of the hand. I don't think that's true for most people, however, here - or elsewhere. You're right, I should phrase that as 'The number of fellow Americans some on the board think we should care about shrinks daily.'
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Aug 2, 2018 14:23:44 GMT -5
OK, so are we supposed to go rescue Venezuelans from themselves? Play stupid games; win stupid prizes. I'm done caring more about other people than they care about themselves. Ever have an addict in the family? It's kinda like that. I'll help, but I'm not going to set myself on fire to keep them warm.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Aug 2, 2018 14:24:54 GMT -5
Doesn't matter. Illinois is circling the drain. Rauner's (R) label is meaningless. He's as big a sack of shit as the Democrat. Who gives a shit anymore what happens in Illinois? It's like hand-wringing over CA, or NY. They're gone. Fuck 'em. I don’t think he has done much but it is better than giving Madigan uncontested power yet again. How he is allowed to make laws regarding property taxes yet profit from their appeals is beyond me. I do agree with you IL is circling the drain, I do predict it will be the first state to go bankrupt, I have a lot of Civil Service friends that are gonna take a bath on their pensions. Another reason I'm delighted that Hillary Clinton lost. We'd be bailing out those states and Democrats would be consolidating power and poised to turn the entire country into CA and IL.
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Aug 2, 2018 14:57:04 GMT -5
Please let Rauner win.... it doesn’t look good right now though, a Pritzker win hands back control of IL to Michael Madigan which will give him just enough time to completely bankrupt the state and and continue to enrich his Property Tax appeal specializing law firm. I loathe the Illinois Dems as much as the National GOP at this point. Doesn't matter. Illinois is circling the drain. Rauner's (R) label is meaningless. He's as big a sack of shit as the Democrat. Who gives a shit anymore what happens in Illinois? It's like hand-wringing over CA, or NY. They're gone. Fuck 'em. lol, nope still here. All three still sending in more dollars than they receive from the fed. Unlike some other states
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 2, 2018 16:01:31 GMT -5
Doesn't matter. Illinois is circling the drain. Rauner's (R) label is meaningless. He's as big a sack of shit as the Democrat. Who gives a shit anymore what happens in Illinois? It's like hand-wringing over CA, or NY. They're gone. Fuck 'em. lol, nope still here. All three still sending in more dollars than they receive from the fed. Unlike some other states yeah, at least their drain has a blue stopper. ours doesn't.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 2, 2018 18:03:49 GMT -5
so, RCP, who is notoriously conservative in terms of predictions, has the house at a tie right now (200-200 with 35 tossups).
just mentioning.
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Post by thyme4change on Aug 3, 2018 19:37:43 GMT -5
I chose to get the Republican primary ballot so I could encourage more mainstream candidates. But, it appears I have my choice between female Trumpers and male Trumpers. I don't know what to do.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 6, 2018 16:56:25 GMT -5
topping: i want to point out that i am not making predictions here. i am just reporting. lesson learned from 2016: never underestimate the power of Democrats to fuck things up.
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 6, 2018 19:34:52 GMT -5
topping: i want to point out that i am not making predictions here. i am just reporting. lesson learned from 2016: never underestimate the power of Democrats to fuck things up.
Democrats are pikers compared to Republicans in this regard.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 8, 2018 11:17:02 GMT -5
so, another side note: the polling in Ohio was spot on for the OH 12 Special election. the last two polls taken had it at a 1% race. it is a 1% race. i might also add that the polls are a good way to judge whether your election has been tampered. this one pretty clearly has not been. so, congrats to the GOP for holding on this seat, and congrats to Democrats for making it interesting. edit: yes, i know that it has not been called yet, but i doubt the provisional ballots will make the difference.
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Post by haapai on Aug 8, 2018 12:02:21 GMT -5
I'm interested in your last sentence. There are so many ways to interpret it. Do you doubt that the uncounted ballots could possibly be skewed in favor of the Democrats by a high enough margin or do you doubt that the provisional ballots will be counted?
If every uncounted ballot contains a vote in the OH -12 race, a 60.4% / 39.6% split in favor of O'Connor would change the outcome. That's a much less skewed split than usually seen when the number of uncounted ballots exceeds the margin of victory. Do you know something about how absentee and provisional ballots usually split in Ohio races?
ETA: I think that I found the answer for your confidence that the outcome won't change. The 5048 absentee ballots that I included in my calculations are the number of absentee ballots still outstanding. Only a portion of these ballots will be trickling in with postmarks of Aug 6. or earlier and counted.
Okay, back to the midterms. Don't the odds of a blue wave improve if the OH-12 special election goes to Balderson?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 8, 2018 18:55:42 GMT -5
absentee voting tends to skew Republican. that is why i am only considering provisional (which do indeed tend to skew Democrat).
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 9, 2018 0:36:19 GMT -5
so, RCP, who is notoriously conservative in terms of predictions, has the house at a tie right now (200-200 with 35 tossups).
just mentioning. RCP now has Dems as +3: 199:196 with 40 tossups. edit: the caveat is that "everyone knows" polls don't work.
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 9, 2018 8:43:29 GMT -5
I'm interested in your last sentence. There are so many ways to interpret it. Do you doubt that the uncounted ballots could possibly be skewed in favor of the Democrats by a high enough margin or do you doubt that the provisional ballots will be counted?
If every uncounted ballot contains a vote in the OH -12 race, a 60.4% / 39.6% split in favor of O'Connor would change the outcome. That's a much less skewed split than usually seen when the number of uncounted ballots exceeds the margin of victory. Do you know something about how absentee and provisional ballots usually split in Ohio races?
ETA: I think that I found the answer for your confidence that the outcome won't change. The 5048 absentee ballots that I included in my calculations are the number of absentee ballots still outstanding. Only a portion of these ballots will be trickling in with postmarks of Aug 6. or earlier and counted.
Okay, back to the midterms. Don't the odds of a blue wave improve if the OH-12 special election goes to Balderson? I refuse to predict, because I suck bigly at it, but the OH-12 was staunchly red and went to Trump in 2016. O'Connor beat Clinton's votes by about 10 percentage points. And even if he loses, O'Conner can run again in November, when students will be back on campus at Ohio State and turnout will probably be higher.
I found this chart on Nate Silver's site about the amount of pro-Dem shift so far:
fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/august-7-election-results/
So I don't know about a blue wave, but there is definitely movement. Enough that Trump shouldn't be bragging about how the elections were all in his favor, but you know, Trump's gonna brag.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 9, 2018 9:08:06 GMT -5
i didn't click on your link, but if it is the link that shows democratic lean in special elections, i have already seen it. Democrats have averaged a 16% lean in special elections since 2016. there are a few things to note about this. first of all, special elections tend to favor Republicans, because they have low turnout. also: 90% of these special elections were in SOLIDLY GOP districts, so the GOP won most of them. but if you dig down, the numbers look pretty good for Democrats, and they are pretty consistently good. in them, you will see a lot of reasons to expect a blue wave, and very few to expect a red one.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 9, 2018 9:15:39 GMT -5
... RCP now has Dems as +3: 199:196 with 40 tossups. ... Seats, not odds. Love it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 9, 2018 9:29:46 GMT -5
... RCP now has Dems as +3: 199:196 with 40 tossups. ... Seats, not odds. Love it. RCP doesn't do odds. if you want the odds, i can post them, as well.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 9, 2018 9:34:42 GMT -5
Seats, not odds. Love it. RCP doesn't do odds. if you want the odds, i can post them, as well. As per previous conversation, I prefer the pros approach at RCP.
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