djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 9, 2018 9:35:48 GMT -5
RCP doesn't do odds. if you want the odds, i can post them, as well. As per previous conversation, I prefer the pros approach at RCP. i don't really have a preference, but i won't bother with the odds for now.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 11, 2018 19:41:54 GMT -5
RCP now has Democrats at +4 (199 to 195) with 41 tossups.
i checked out another site, and it shows D+5 (203 to 198).
i wish that there was a site that charted this, but i can't find one. it is interesting to look at the trends. recent trend has been pretty flat. Alex Castellano predicts that the GOP will lose 40-50 seats. if that happens, the House would have almost a perfect flip, as the GOP is up 40 seats now. this is kind of a cool site. Crosstab is predicting that Dems will win the house, already: note: i think predicting seat numbers this early is very unwise. right now, i would call the race even. if the elections were held TODAY, Democrats would likely win the House. but a lot can happen in 90 days.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 11, 2018 20:41:04 GMT -5
... note: i think predictions this early are very unwise. ... so, three months to go to midterms. here are my predictions: ...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 11, 2018 21:10:36 GMT -5
ok, wise guy. i fixed my post to reflect what i was actually trying to say.
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verrip1
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Post by verrip1 on Aug 11, 2018 21:16:49 GMT -5
Please let Rauner win.... it doesn’t look good right now though, a Pritzker win hands back control of IL to Michael Madigan which will give him just enough time to completely bankrupt the state and and continue to enrich his Property Tax appeal specializing law firm. I loathe the Illinois Dems as much as the National GOP at this point. I used to always vote gop state and local.... But frankly, I don't think I can ever vote gop again. I used to be a virgin. But, frankly, I don't think I can ever be one again.
It's not like either of us will try.
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Post by Opti on Aug 11, 2018 21:51:38 GMT -5
ok, wise guy. i fixed my post to reflect what i was actually trying to say. Well, it is August 11th, not July 29th. Plus, aren't some people reporting they are actually voting now?! NJ is in person voting so our midterms and pretty much all yearly elections will happen this November.
It *feels* like it should be fall here.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 11, 2018 22:20:23 GMT -5
RCP now has Democrats at +4 (199 to 195) with 41 tossups. ... note: i think predicting seat numbers this early is very unwise.
Is RCP predicting or reporting what polls are showing?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 11, 2018 23:38:54 GMT -5
RCP now has Democrats at +4 (199 to 195) with 41 tossups. ... note: i think predicting seat numbers this early is very unwise.
Is RCP predicting or reporting what polls are showing? i wasn't talking about RCP. as i said before, RCP doesn't predict. but to answer your question: they are showing what the polls show, and within certainty. they have a very conservative standard. i think they need at least (5) polls, and it has to show outside of 5% uncertainty before they call it for either party. things have to change a LOT before their numbers change. however, the person i cited and the site i showed are far more bold. edit: here is another PREDICTION: i predict that RCP's numbers won't change that much between now and election day- because MANY of these races will have insufficient polling to meet their standards. edit2: this thread is not about 538, Nate Silver, etc. in fact, i have avoided mentioning him precisely because he has become controversial, esp on the right.
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 12, 2018 6:00:00 GMT -5
RCP now has Democrats at +4 (199 to 195) with 41 tossups.
i checked out another site, and it shows D+5 (203 to 198).
i wish that there was a site that charted this, but i can't find one. it is interesting to look at the trends. recent trend has been pretty flat. Alex Castellano predicts that the GOP will lose 40-50 seats. if that happens, the House would have almost a perfect flip, as the GOP is up 40 seats now. this is kind of a cool site. Crosstab is predicting that Dems will win the house, already: note: i think predicting seat numbers this early is very unwise. right now, i would call the race even. if the elections were held TODAY, Democrats would likely win the House. but a lot can happen in 90 days.
Is Alex the guy on CNN? If so, I take everytning he says as democratic talking points. He predicted Hillary was in........
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 12, 2018 8:13:27 GMT -5
... however, the person i cited and the site i showed are far more bold. ... Wisdom is rare in cable television talking heads and recent college graduate bloggers ( link)
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Post by dezii on Aug 12, 2018 9:17:58 GMT -5
RCP now has Democrats at +4 (199 to 195) with 41 tossups.
i checked out another site, and it shows D+5 (203 to 198).
i wish that there was a site that charted this, but i can't find one. it is interesting to look at the trends. recent trend has been pretty flat. Alex Castellano predicts that the GOP will lose 40-50 seats. if that happens, the House would have almost a perfect flip, as the GOP is up 40 seats now. this is kind of a cool site. Crosstab is predicting that Dems will win the house, already: note: i think predicting seat numbers this early is very unwise. right now, i would call the race even. if the elections were held TODAY, Democrats would likely win the House. but a lot can happen in 90 days.
Is Alex the guy on CNN? If so, I take everytning he says as democratic talking points. He predicted Hillary was in........ "He predicted Hillary was in........"Who didn't, including Trump himself,,,,,!
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Post by OldCoyote on Aug 12, 2018 10:21:40 GMT -5
This morning I was scouring You Tube for the 2016 election night coverage that I was watching, when the they realized that Trump was going to win,
But not only that would most likely take the Congress back! I can't find it!!
But after viewing several videos,, Wooooo Hoooooo what a GLORIOUS night that was,, I was able to relive it again,
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 12, 2018 10:27:55 GMT -5
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Aug 12, 2018 10:34:09 GMT -5
Yes, it was great watching those videos..especially since every one of them thought Hillary would win by a landslide!! Yes bills , I should have said continue to control.. But the commentator was so sure that they would regain control, his disappoint was apparent. So much for neutral media!!
The commentator was SO disappointed,, And I can't find it!
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 12, 2018 10:41:35 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 12, 2018 10:59:15 GMT -5
RCP now has Democrats at +4 (199 to 195) with 41 tossups.
i checked out another site, and it shows D+5 (203 to 198).
i wish that there was a site that charted this, but i can't find one. it is interesting to look at the trends. recent trend has been pretty flat. Alex Castellano predicts that the GOP will lose 40-50 seats. if that happens, the House would have almost a perfect flip, as the GOP is up 40 seats now. this is kind of a cool site. Crosstab is predicting that Dems will win the house, already: note: i think predicting seat numbers this early is very unwise. right now, i would call the race even. if the elections were held TODAY, Democrats would likely win the House. but a lot can happen in 90 days.
Is Alex the guy on CNN? If so, I take everytning he says as democratic talking points. He predicted Hillary was in........ i only know one thing about Alex, and that is that he is a conservative, according to the article i read. like i say, you kinda gotta be a bit goofy to be calling seats right now. it is all based on "predictive data" right now, not "facts on the ground". the reason i don't like that is that it MIGHT be that Democrats are running inferior candidates, and it fails to take any of that into account.
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Post by OldCoyote on Aug 12, 2018 11:00:00 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 12, 2018 11:08:48 GMT -5
like i have said before, the national polling was fine. and MOST of the state polling was good, too. there were a few exceptions. the most notable one was Wisconsin, where the polls were off by 7%. we could have a good discussion about why that happened, but i would rather not bother with it. i hope that the media learned from it, but i have my doubts. edit: i might also add that in three of the six states that 538 got wrong, the sum total of the margin of victory for Trump was less than 80,000 votes. but thanks for posting that, OC. i forgot that 538 was giving Clinton an 80% chance of winning some states that she lost. there is a large discussion on what went wrong over 538 here: disclosure: i have not read it, so i don't know what they concluded.
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Post by dezii on Aug 12, 2018 11:35:32 GMT -5
This morning I was scouring You Tube for the 2016 election night coverage that I was watching, when the they realized that Trump was going to win,
But not only that would most likely take the Congress back! I can't find it!!
But after viewing several videos,, Wooooo Hoooooo what a GLORIOUS night that was,, I was able to relive it again, and your ecstatic with his decisions and the complete split in the country now...gotcha....understand where your coming from... For me, my despising the man his reign, the complete acceptance of his party to any and all things Trump...my feelings every AM as I check the over nights and find the man is still among us...not what I signed up for decades ago, fought for, bled for.....and definitely not what I want to feel for ANY POTUS...no matter the political party.... A rapest [13 year old no less, and yes he did do it...[numerouse times]….. and u by accepting and rejoicing in his election condone that action. I take it u have no daughter....possible no female in your life....just saying. His racist feelings toward those of color...minorities in general... [yes that too]....his way of bullying long times allies and friends as if he is dealing in NYC real estate and those tactics would work with those who also have constituents...democratic countries...free elections........his kowtowing to a known enemy of our country....and on and on...lordy never ending...definitely not a gloriouse night...day, week....month...year.
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Post by ednkris on Aug 12, 2018 19:30:45 GMT -5
This morning I was scouring You Tube for the 2016 election night coverage that I was watching, when the they realized that Trump was going to win,
But not only that would most likely take the Congress back! I can't find it!!
But after viewing several videos,, Wooooo Hoooooo what a GLORIOUS night that was,, I was able to relive it again, I love watching the videos on it...waking up everyday knowing Trump is president and Hillary lost, is like Christmas morning everyday
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 12, 2018 19:53:02 GMT -5
This morning I was scouring You Tube for the 2016 election night coverage that I was watching, when the they realized that Trump was going to win,
But not only that would most likely take the Congress back! I can't find it!!
But after viewing several videos,, Wooooo Hoooooo what a GLORIOUS night that was,, I was able to relive it again, Paul posted the you tube site on one of his recent threads. I spent several hours watching the major cable outlets and ABC reporting in disbelief......will actually denial because they would not admit it when the knew it to be happening......but it was good for the chuckles of watching them sweat, knowing they realized their lies were not believable to the mass middle American citizenry.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 12, 2018 19:56:17 GMT -5
Is Alex the guy on CNN? If so, I take everytning he says as democratic talking points. He predicted Hillary was in........ i only know one thing about Alex, and that is that he is a conservative, according to the article i read. like i say, you kinda gotta be a bit goofy to be calling seats right now. it is all based on "predictive data" right now, not "facts on the ground". the reason i don't like that is that it MIGHT be that Democrats are running inferior candidates, and it fails to take any of that into account.
I googled him. yeh, he was added to CNN FOR HIS BRILLIANT ANALYSIS capabilities. He was the token Spanish surname Republican for them. He also was involved in Mitt Romney's campaign. I take back that he was a Hillary talking piece. He was sort of objective.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 12, 2018 20:03:51 GMT -5
Is Alex the guy on CNN? If so, I take everytning he says as democratic talking points. He predicted Hillary was in........ "He predicted Hillary was in........"Who didn't, including Trump himself,,,,,! Sort of surprised you used that icon on your post to me. I guess the real kicker is on you for four years......
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 12, 2018 20:11:43 GMT -5
Yes, it was great watching those videos..especially since every one of them thought Hillary would win by a landslide!! Yes bills , I should have said continue to control.. But the commentator was so sure that they would regain control, his disappoint was apparent. So much for neutral media!!
The commentator was SO disappointed,, And I can't find it!
Try here
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Post by dezii on Aug 12, 2018 20:25:56 GMT -5
"He predicted Hillary was in........"Who didn't, including Trump himself,,,,,! Sort of surprised you used that icon on your post to me. I guess the real kicker is on you for four years...... Value, your fixation on Hillery after all this time is a bit much don't u agree.? Yes I voted for her as did 3 million plus more voters then the Donald...It's not that we made a mistake...it's just by the rules a incompetent individual became our President and that the majority of folks, including the man himself, thought she was going to win...it's what it was. We have had over a year and a half of him in the highest office in the land, technically one of the most powerful individuals in the world...You are pleased and content , feel it is the way the country should be governed, the way our country's influence should be expressed ? Fine.... I feel exact opposite...as do a few others of my fellow countrymen. We'll let the historians have the last word in fifty years or so.... As far as the icon...believe this is the one your referring to... not four years...a year and a half is over.....we'll have to see how it plays out in 2020 won't we.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Aug 12, 2018 22:54:18 GMT -5
Oh I was having a ball this morning,, Watching all and I repeat all those arrogant media people that were so sure Hillary had it wrapped up before the election even started,,, As the evening moved on how the arrogance turned into "How could this possibly be happening" Yea, they had their "Smart" ass handed to them,,, Woooo Hoooo Trump is making America Great Again..
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Aug 12, 2018 22:57:35 GMT -5
This morning I was scouring You Tube for the 2016 election night coverage that I was watching, when the they realized that Trump was going to win,
But not only that would most likely take the Congress back! I can't find it!!
But after viewing several videos,, Wooooo Hoooooo what a GLORIOUS night that was,, I was able to relive it again, and your ecstatic with his decisions and the complete split in the country now...gotcha....understand where your coming from... For me, my despising the man his reign, the complete acceptance of his party to any and all things Trump...my feelings every AM as I check the over nights and find the man is still among us...not what I signed up for decades ago, fought for, bled for.....and definitely not what I want to feel for ANY POTUS...no matter the political party.... A rapest [13 year old no less, and yes he did do it...[numerouse times]….. and u by accepting and rejoicing in his election condone that action. I take it u have no daughter....possible no female in your life....just saying. His racist feelings toward those of color...minorities in general... [yes that too]....his way of bullying long times allies and friends as if he is dealing in NYC real estate and those tactics would work with those who also have constituents...democratic countries...free elections........his kowtowing to a known enemy of our country....and on and on...lordy never ending...definitely not a gloriouse night...day, week....month...year. Dezii, I worry about you! Are you feeling well?
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Aug 12, 2018 23:37:00 GMT -5
and your ecstatic with his decisions and the complete split in the country now...gotcha....understand where your coming from... For me, my despising the man his reign, the complete acceptance of his party to any and all things Trump...my feelings every AM as I check the over nights and find the man is still among us...not what I signed up for decades ago, fought for, bled for.....and definitely not what I want to feel for ANY POTUS...no matter the political party.... A rapest [13 year old no less, and yes he did do it...[numerouse times]….. and u by accepting and rejoicing in his election condone that action. I take it u have no daughter....possible no female in your life....just saying. His racist feelings toward those of color...minorities in general... [yes that too]....his way of bullying long times allies and friends as if he is dealing in NYC real estate and those tactics would work with those who also have constituents...democratic countries...free elections........his kowtowing to a known enemy of our country....and on and on...lordy never ending...definitely not a gloriouse night...day, week....month...year. Dezii, I worry about you! Are you feeling well? Appreciate the thought ...actually doing fine...doctors appt manana...time for giving blood every quarter... Over all not bad. Grand kids getting ready to head back to school...three at university now....one last year at USC , made Phi Beta Kappa Jr year, went to Korea for Olympics as a paid intern, this Summer worked NFL as intern, worked in NYC on this years Super Bowl.... and this year his sister joining him there , USC, for her frosh year,,,think it will be tough on daughter, both kids so far away...and sons oldest boy just back from England/Scotland..he goes into his last year too...Drew University and his brother sophomore in High...smart good looking boy, great musician , Trumpet...prize State jazz band... Yup doing well even with the man in the White House...I do feel like I said about him but know he too will pass...some day. PS...Yes he did rape that girl..I know, she was a pro, but come on....and 13...[sheesh] and yes he is our POTUS...[SAD]
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Aug 13, 2018 10:18:48 GMT -5
Sort of surprised you used that icon on your post to me. I guess the real kicker is on you for four years...... Value, your fixation on Hillery after all this time is a bit much don't u agree.? Yes I voted for her as did 3 million plus more voters then the Donald...It's not that we made a mistake...it's just by the rules a incompetent individual became our President and that the majority of folks, including the man himself, thought she was going to win...it's what it was. We have had over a year and a half of him in the highest office in the land, technically one of the most powerful individuals in the world...You are pleased and content , feel it is the way the country should be governed, the way our country's influence should be expressed ? Fine.... I feel exact opposite...as do a few others of my fellow countrymen. We'll let the historians have the last word in fifty years or so.... As far as the icon...believe this is the one your referring to... not four years...a year and a half is over.....we'll have to see how it plays out in 2020 won't we. Who is Hillery? I do not worry about her except when she makes a statement to the press for the latest news cycle. If only she would fade away quietly. Republicans would be happy and the Democrats would be estatic. On this issue both parties are in agreement. I am happy to see you write you have to deal with the President for 2 1/2 years, even though it is much longer than that..... ......... but still you are acknowledging he is not going anywhere until the new Inauguration when he is put in office for another four years.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 13, 2018 10:52:59 GMT -5
i only know one thing about Alex, and that is that he is a conservative, according to the article i read. like i say, you kinda gotta be a bit goofy to be calling seats right now. it is all based on "predictive data" right now, not "facts on the ground". the reason i don't like that is that it MIGHT be that Democrats are running inferior candidates, and it fails to take any of that into account.
I googled him. yeh, he was added to CNN FOR HIS BRILLIANT ANALYSIS capabilities. He was the token Spanish surname Republican for them. He also was involved in Mitt Romney's campaign. in other words, i got it right. thanks.
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